Nun,
I've spent WAAAY too much time bridging to your kit, but have concluded that we're pretty much carrying the same stuff for 3-season, but where I'm screwed is the weight of my (4) Arkel T-42 panniers versus your Nelson Longflap and Rivendalle Brand V (not to mention the Tubus racks versus your Bagman) at 139 oz, my Hilleberg Allak with foot print versus your Contrail at 95 oz, my raingear (Showers Pass Elite 2.0) versus yours at 24 oz, my cookset (MSR XGK - whatever) versus yours at 13 oz, and my bag (FF Merlin) versus your quilt at 10 oz. That's a total difference (not including racks) of 281 oz or 17 lbs 9 oz!!!!
I agree that your gear choices are appropriate for 3 season extended travel. If things get too extreme, you'd duck into a motel. And, truth be told, so would I. Is my additional weight worth the incremental comfort my kit affords versus yours? I admit that it may be difficult to justify.
What this basically says is that for light unsupported touring, one should find the largest saddlebag and handlebar bag that can be mounted without racks, then select gear with minimum volume so it all will fit (or in the case of your tent, fit under the seat). And the lower weight follows from lower volume. And as you point out, no racks = no touring bike.
As you mention above, your loaded bike is 45 lbs. Mine (Americano) loaded with my versions of the items you've listed above is 66 lbs. Some - actually very few - of my items are a bit lighter than what you have listed so the total might otherwise seem slightly off. Oh, and I don't count fuel, food, or water.
Steve