I have no facts to back this up, but I have the feeling everyone is keeping their stock really lean. Better to delay (or even lose) a sale here and there than be stuck with a ton of unsold inventory.
You are 200% correct on that thought. Add in that the bike mfgs. changed their model year intro to July so dealers would be left with less new old stock to discount in the fall. Not surprised to hear that a dealer is out this early.