steveb,
thanks for the comments.
i was fully expecting to be rained on. had rain gear with me, as well as emergency bivy and a poncho.
i had a tarp (ill suited to its purpose, i admit) and a waterproof rei bivy with me. i opted to stay out of the bivy when i had moon and stars to look at.
i did have the full hennesy hammock packed, but really wanted to try a tarp / bivy setup, so at the last moment i pulled it from the bag.
it all fits, as the rear bag opens a bit more - had the hammock in there before grabbing the bivy.
i could have packed my old backpacking tent for 4 more pounds, but its bulky.
that said, i've simplified a bit more, have a tarptent contrail enroute to me, and will be testing this fall. packs smaller than my hammock or tarp + bivy, and knocks another pound out of my kit.
part of 'biting off more than i could chew' was on purpose. aside from the remote 30-40 miles of dirt, this was a pretty 'safe' route. lots of resupply options, and it was end to end, with family at the inlaws at the finish.
i took on the mileage to push myself, and to test out how the body and mind work doing back to back centuries+. agreed that 80 miles a day over 3 days would have been nice, but i'm not one to like to sit around in camp. (and i don't bring anything to sit on!) i don't bring many creature comforts, and am spefically seeking out primitive camp options.
next trip through will likely be a 200k+, 120k, and 200k+ days, with the 120k day including single and double track on an old truck trail.
as to my luggage:
no panniers and rack needed. no noticeable bob with the seatbag.
bike handles wonderfully as is.
for more information on this type of setup, check out what some of the tour divide racers are doing.
or visit the guy who made my bags:
http://www.revelatedesigns.com/