Originally Posted by
topflightpro
Something not mentioned yet is your position on the final lap.
I have found that if I am not in the top three coming out of the last turn, chances are, I'm not going to win the sprint. It is much more difficult to pass 4-9 guys than to pass one or two. And if you are closer to the front, or on the front, on the final lap, you can chose the best line and make anyone faster than you go around you.
Positioning is not realistic for many people, partially because of the power required, partially because it's very difficult to be in the 4-6% of riders that will be in the optimal position. By definition if there are 50 riders in the race and you want to be top 3 (but not first), there are 2 people who will be in that position. There will be 47 others (plus the point rider) fighting for position, or, realistically, 15-20 that have some belief in themselves in the last 400 meters.
I'm a reasonable sprinter (on a flat sprint where I'm feeling okay and there's a headwind I figure I can pass 5-10+ riders in 200 meters, depending how wide everyone goes), but generally speaking if I work to get into second-fifth spot before the sprint, I'm often tapped out before I ever jump, forget about trying to make it to the line. Only the most powerful riders will be able to get into a top position and still have some juice leftover for the sprint. This is where teammates and such come into play - they sacrifice themselves to put you in position.
Having said that it's a good thing to experience leading out a sprint. Usually you'll still manage 10th-15th, better than being buried anonymously. I've led out sprints for non-teammates, just because I knew I wasn't in contention, the race wasn't as important to me as to them, and I knew I could virtually guarantee them a place by leading them out. My best leadout for a non-teammate was an out and out win, clear from the field by 40-50 feet (and he was soft pedaling at the line).