Old 02-16-12, 01:24 PM
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Citoyen du Monde
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In most collectibles there is the rule of 25 years (one generation), which corresponds to the time which is required for youthful desire (generally created in the late teen years) to be able to become economically viable (generally in one's 40's and 50's). When you are young, you build up most of your strongest attractions and also have most unfulfilled desires. The reason for the desires being unfulfilled is usually tied to the fact that you do not have the financial means to fulfill them. As you age, most people see their financial possibilities increase, so that what was once completely out of range, now becomes fulfillable. This situation of financial availability reaches most people in their 40's and 50's (i.e. 20-30 years after the creation of the strong attraction). However there is also corollary to this, namely that after a certain period of time, things can become "too" old because people can no longer relate to them.

I take the example of the Ford model T. Back in the 60's and very early 70's, when my parents drove a 1958 Chevrolet Belair, I knew of a few people who were very keen collectors of Ford model T's. The Ford's were worth large sums of money, quite the contrary to my parent's Chevrolet. In 1971, my parent's ended up selling the car for a handful of dollars($50 if I recall correctly) to a fellow who planned to make the car into a drag car. 10 years later, the guy who bought the car still hadn't found the time to realize his drag car dream and therefore hadn't touched the car. He sold the car for very good money (about double what a model T in similar shape sold for at that time) to somebody who instead wanted to "restore" the car as cruise night car. After that, I heard that the car was sold once more after the restoration for a multiple of the early 80s' price. The Model T's value has however lost ground when compared to inflation ever since the 70's. Today, you can find a drivable model T for $10-20K, whereas a Belair goes for $25K on up.

In bicycles, about 10 years ago, any bike fitted with a Campagnolo cambio corsa was worth at least $1500, if not $3000 and more in North America. Not a single bike that featured this derailleur sold for less than $1500. Over time, these bikes have dropped in value, they no longer sell for the same premiums as earlier. For example there is a very nice one on ebay right now, that is seemingly period correct in everything, that has not yet received a single bid http://www.ebay.com/itm/110821652778...84.m1423.l2649 Is this because the collectible has passed its "best by" date, or do bikes past a certain age drop in value just like the Model T? Bikes from teh mid-80's have definitely gone up in value over teh last 10 years whereas most bikes (that is to say all but the very nicest bikes) from the period prior to 1950 have remained constant or dropped in value.
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