Originally Posted by
colombo357
Wiggins wouldn't be winning this year and Evans wouldn't have won last year had Contador not eaten his delicious, juicy Spanish steak.
Contador didn't lose last year because of doping allegations. He lost because he blew his form, possibly by expending far more energy than necessary to win the Giro.
While it's hard to bet against Contador, the reality is that there's no way to know what would have happened if he rode this year. I don't recall Saxo ever looking as disciplined as Sky has this year.
Originally Posted by colombo357
Schleck still has a chance. He just needs a route with only one ITT and lots of climbing, with his main competitors out of the tour due to injury or suspension. This is conceivable.
Uh... he already had that chance, in 2011.
The route had tons of mountains, no prologue, one TTT and one ITT. Wiggins crashed out early, Samu and Contador lost lots of time in crashes. Frank and Voight worked hard for him, and Andy played to his strengths with that massive attack on the Galibier. By the time the ITT came around, Contador was already blown and he had almost a full minute up on Evans. So what happened? Evans buried Andy by 2 1/2 minutes in a single TT.
Second, I'm pretty sure that with any of the GC guys, you could say "get rid of his main competitors" and they're likely to win.
I don't think Wiggins is the Anquetil of the modern era, but Andy runs the risk of being its Poulidor.