I also participate in a hikers forum. There was a recent post where a hiker left his pack in a shelter for just 15 minutes and returned to find it gone. In his case, even though the had "valuables" on him like his wallet and phone, he had over $1,500 worth of gear in that pack. More importantly, the lost of the pack ended his attempt to hike the AT.
So while it is "just stuff", just how dependant are you on that "stuff" when you're out touring? Is it "stuff" that you can easily replace and keep touring? Would the loss of this stuff be the end of your tour? Whould you be able to get you and your bike back home?