Originally Posted by
waterrockets
The general strategy is sound (go harder when it's hard, and easier when it's easy), but the assumptions render anything beyond that useless.
speed = distance/time. distance = integral(velocity). both rolling and wind resistance increase with velocity, so very simply it's best to expend your energy in the "slow" parts, be they uphill or into a headwind. More speed-bang for the watt-buck, so to speak.
how much over threshold vs. under is going to vary with each rider.