Update: They got the bike back!
Spotted it chained up outside a local store, a few blocks away from where it was stolen.
Turns out a guy inside the store bought it on the street (with my friend's lock still chained up around the seat post) for $20. And then rode it with the chain on there and my friend's water bottle still in the cage.
Cops came and my friend didn't press charges in return for the bike back and the guy will work with the cops to try and catch the actual thief.
Bottom line - it never hurts to try and reunite bike with owner.