VosBike

Besides what he and his coaches say, I see no evidence that Jan is in any kind of form. Is there any way any rider, even one of Jan's talent, can get on tour winning form by July?

I'm not saying this lack of form is caused by laziness, and I don't want to add too much the the Jan bashing fad, but I just don't see how he could possibly win this year.

bigskymacadam

just because of his Romandie finish? seems like he's on for july peak.

Hipcycler

Yeah, he has a history of being overweight and under-trained this time of year. I wouldn't put too much stock in all the doom and gloom stuff about him circulating right now.

IMHO Jan=top five rider this year at TdF

Veloduo

Based on WHAT?

bigskymacadam

it's based wholly on it's may and we can't really tell yet. by the time the dauphine rolls around we'll get a better picture. still, i love all the hype; makes the tdf that much more exciting.

Veloduo

I guess, to be fair, I have to admit that he's been competitive in the TDF for a while, including last year, more or less. And this year's parcours may be set up for him, with no mountain finishes and no TTT. But I'm sitting here looking at the favorites, and I see Jan with a sketchy knee, no results, and a 115th-place finish in the Tour de Romandie, sixth-last among classified riders (!). His directors and coaches seem like they're whistling past the proverbial graveyard. Der Jan has every appearance of a rider on the decline, while Basso, Landis, Valverde, and arguably even Vino are rising stars. If I'm in a wagering facility in Euroland today, I'm looking to put money on him not even reaching the podium.

Veloduo

And 9 weeks to get his sh_t together...

1slowbastard

We hear the same thing every year. Yet, every July Jan is there.

Veloduo

Where, not on the podium?

DrWJODonnell

Stage 11, 15, and 16 are all mountain finishes I believe. Did I misunderstand you?

Veloduo

Doc, you're right. I stand corrected. Of course, this just makes it even LESS likely Der Jan will manage it...

Vinokurtov

Which TDF are you watching? TDF is the Tour De France, where he's missed the podium twice since 1996. Not the Tour of Flanders.

DrWJODonnell

You scared the crap out of me. It is bad enough that there is no TTT. A TDF without mountain finishes though! Mama Mia!

As to Der Jan, he will be there, mouth gaping wide open, as though to engulf the entirety of the earth's atmosphere with his next gasp, the conflicted pain of one who could be the best in the world (if only he could discipline himself like the 80+% majority of his peers) tearing through his facial features, his mind full of wonderment as to why, why must he not achieve the greatness for which he was meant.

Then he will retire and fatten himself up guilt free, knowing that he has always been in shape. After all, round is a shape.

DXchulo

Conspiracy theory alert: Jan is taking a page out of Lance's book and pretending he's not on good form. He wants them to think he's out of shape.

I don't buy that, but why not throw it out there. Anyway, Romandie was a tough course and it was his first race back, so I wouldn't get too excited yet. I think it took a lot of balls for him to do that race. He was damned if he did, damned if he didn't. If he did race he was sure to be a little out of shape, and people would knock him for that. Lance never had the ball to race in a situation like that. If he didn't race everyone would say it was just Jan being lazy again. It's going to take a lot of balls for him to do the Giro for the same reason, and I hope he sticks to that plan. I have a feeling by the last week of the Giro we'll be talking about how good he's looking and how quickly he turned things around. Remember, he was always the kind of guy who started looking the best towards the end of the TDF.

Jakey

I don't know if that theory is totally true, but I read somewhere (I'll search for the link) that someone saw him motorpacing up a stiff climb in Italy, and just screaming up the mountain... I wouldn't put too much weight on his romandie results. His performances in a few key Giro stages, will tell alot more.

VosBike

DXChulo, in all fairness, Lance hasn't had the ballS since 1993...

making fun of cancer victims aside, racing romandie certainly took some cajones but the fact remains: the kaiser is in worse shape than normal (even for him).

DocRay

There are too many good riders and the Giro is too tough this year to care about Ullrich and whether or not he's been in der bratwurst.
Cunego and Basso are peaking, Basso won the Criterium internationale when he was just using it as a training race, and his TT times have been very impressive.
Training and racing are two different things...Jan has not been racing enough for any real impact at the Giro.

Looking at the Giro this year and those climbs, there very well might be a Giro-TDF winner in 06.

alpe d'issaquah

Please, he wasn't trying to win the Tour de Romandie, he was only looking to get some kilometres under his legs in a race. Look for him to put in a stronger performance at the Giro like DXChucko said.

DocRay

..I really doubt he'll finish the Giro this year. This year is the most insane climbs in the history of the Giro and make Alp-d'huez look like the incline on my driveway.

alpe d'issaquah

Maybe, I haven't looked at the profile yet. On the one hand I hope that he has the sense to drop if he needs to to be on form for the TdF but on the other hand if he drops out, all hell will break loose in the media.

Jakey

I don't think he will finish the giro, I think he will test himself in a TT or two and in some tough mountain stages, and then bow out.

edzo

guess what ?


Jan likes to mash a big gear


guess what else ?

he has chronic knee problems


coincidence ?

I betcha he has all the steam in the world to win a tour, but
I also believe his knees have left him...

Duke of Kent

Go read Lance Armstrong's War. Jan has dropped out of an early season race or two a couple times before, and come back plenty strong. The fact that he stuck it out AND plans on doing the GIRO says, in my mind, that he's mixing it up this year and might in fact be in better shape than most other years.

DocRay

now that he's lost weight, I can't use this anymore...

DrWJODonnell

He lost some weight...I still think that is still a legal picture!