Ghostman

For Power-Geeks Only:

It would be interesting to see how well Chronic Training Load (average TSS per day over past 6 weeks I think) relates to race performance.

TSS is supposed to be a single score that objectifies the total training load of a particular workout, regardless of the type of workout. You can build TSS through long miles (even at relatively low intensity) or through intervals. In fact, I believe it is easier to generate big TSS through miles than through intervals.

In any event, for an informal, non-scientific study:

if you use Cycling Peaks and race, what was your CTL going into recent races? What Cat are you? How did you do/feel in the race? How direct a correlation do you perceive between CTL and how you feel in races?

brianappleby

based on that statement alone, and the general consensus that intervals are the greatest single thing you can do to improve your performance (lactic OR aerobic intervals), I would venture a guess to say that the TSS algorithm is flawed.

asgelle

Only if you believe there is a relation between TSS (or CTL) and performance; something which has never been proposed.

merlinextraligh

well, flawed perhaps as a predictor of performance, but I don't think that's necessarliy its intended use.

brianappleby

ok that sounds right, after re-reading the OP, i would say that 80 moderate miles feels harder than 40 training miles, but I think the training rides are where I'm getting improvement.

NomadVW 

CTL is not a performance predictor. It's a training load number. I personally look at CTL as the relative TSS level that I can work at on a given day and not feel any more fatigued afterward (ATL).

Because it's based on TSS, and TSS is based on NP and IF (based on FTP), CTL could accurately be described (IMO) as the amount of time/intensity you can handle based on your FTP.

It's not able to be described as a predictor of your FTP.

That being said, I run CTL of low 120's right now. I've been 115+ since February.

Our group did a practice 40km road race this last weekend where I had the hurt locker put on me like I hadn't had it in months. One of the riders is a triathlete that spends most of his time training 45 min - 1 hr on the bike and his power on the bike this week was fantastic. However, when we hit the long group rides at high intensity, he's toast within an hour and a half. Meanwhile, my staying power is significantly longer. Is that fitness? I guess it depends on what you call fitness and the type of events you're training for.

I would also disagree that the easiest way to get TSS is through long steady distance. 150 TSS comes after 2 hrs of tempo riding. Takes 3 1/4 to 3 1/2 hrs of endurance (L2) riding to get the same.

Ghostman

I don't think we disagree/ 2 hours of tempo riding is a LOT and will generate miles and big TSS. I mean that miles at tempo or even endurance pace track up TSS more than intervals. Most intervals workouts (even hard ones) are reasonably short and don't generate TSS.

I think TSS will predict performance to some extent, in the sense that an athlete with a high training load should outperform a) himself at a lower training load; or b) other similarly-situated riders with lower training loads.

DrPete 

I think that TSS is valuable in the sense that I know from my races what "hard" needs to be. Most of the races I've done, i.e. 1-hour crits/circuits, have a TSS of 100-120. So I've been shooting for making my hard days have the same TSS and mimic the efforts I see from my race files and/or target my weaknesses. My take on that is that my body sees race day as just another hard training day. Again, I'm far from a successful big time racer, but this approach has led to some steady improvements in my fitness.

As far as CTL, I don't think that it's a predictor per se, but if you believe in the TSB being a predictor of a strong performance, it's much easier to bring your TSB up faster if you have a high CTL.

asgelle

Only for a properly designed training program. All else being equal who would you bet on Rider A - 700 TSS/wk all at IF of 0.5 or Rider B - 500 TSS/wk but with training targeted to the specific demands of the event and the rider's personal limiters?

NomadVW 

I suppose this depends on how your workouts are designed.

Maybe (A) himself. (B) is highly questionable as "similarly-situated" is open to interpretation and - as Asgelle said - composition of the training program. If the event is a 1 hr crit, my high CTL isn't going to win me any pack sprints over someone with a CTL in the 80's designed around crit racing.

(edited, changed Argentius to Asgelle - too much cross forum reading lately)