OK, so there's a local climb that currently takes me about 32 mins for me to complete.
In the absence of a powermeter, I go to http://www.kreuzotter.de/english/espeed.htm , and plug in the numbers (weight, grade, etc). Knowing how much time it takes currently vs. my time based goal, kreuzotter is estimating that my power would need to increase by 22%, I would have to lose 14lbs and I'd need a bike that's 5lbs lighter. Yeah, that's right, I said my power would need to increase by 22% AND I would have to lose 14lbs.To me that just sounds pretty ridiculous. I'd be giving myself the entire riding season (about 6 more months) for this improvement.
The easy part is losing 5lbs of bike, I can do that w/ my other frame and leaving tools, H2O, etc. at the bottom of the climb. Losing 14lbs is pretty doable (in about 3-4 months). I don't want to lose more than 14lbs. So, the hardest part is the whopping 22% power gain.
The facts (aka, the ugly truth)
- I'm 38.5 years old
- I currently weigh 184lbs
- In '05 I got back into cycling (after a 13yr hiatus), '07 was a bad year for me, so I'm some ways I'm starting from scratch in '08
- "Base" miles for '08 so far ~600
- Compared to much of the US, I'm in good health/shape. But that's still a ways off from a being in good "racing" shape/health
How doable is this? I know it's a "stretch goal" to have for a single season, but I'm just wondering if I should temper my zeal w/ a dose of reality from this subforum. But that's not to say that I'm discouraging anyone from sharing success stories, pointers, advice, etc. either.
Give up and just enjoy bon-bons, pork rinds and whiskey?