ft_critical

I am going into a 80k road race on an open curcuit course of 10km. The competitors don't really know each other that well and there will be a mix of levels from A grade down. I expect half the field will DNF.

I know it is often instinct, but when a group goes off the front, how do you assess whether that is the break you need to be in? (i.e., you need to launch an all-out attack to get in it without taking a train with you)

e.g., how strong is the peleton, how many attacks have already been and how did the peleton react, how big is the gap, how far to go to the finish,

I know I am asking for a formula when one doesn't exist, but it might help better the odds. Thanks for your help

Creakyknees

it helps to know the competitors
and the teams
and the course
and to be really really strong, so you can cover the next move if this one comes back, or,

make the break happen yourself.

mollusk

Do you know who the strong "A" guys are? If you do and you can, go when they go.

ft_critical

Well, you have actually uncovered my entire race strategy. I am going to get the competitor list and, wonder of the internet eh, search out each rider. Find photos etc. Target people to stay with.

But I wanted some fall back tips too.

schnabler1

I think you're close with the notion of there being no real formula.

Every race is different as is every field.

It's more about noticing the right opportunity and reacting at the right time. Without all the thinking about it.

You're on the right track. For me it's about paying very close attention to the field. How quickly are they responding to attacks? How much breathing is going on as opposed to conversation (if any)? Has enough time passed since we last closed a break for the field to recover? Am I in good position? How hard am I working to maintain that position? How do my teammates feel? What are teams X and Y thinking? Etc. etc. etc.

Racer Ex 

F'all that. Just go OTF from the gun and the breaks will form around you. Might take an hour or more though if Saturday was any indication. I got caught up on my reading though.

Or just do a long bridge once they get established and well up the road. That was Sunday.

Mostly though just do some math. A=3, B=2, C=1. If the score goes above 10 you better get on your horse.

CrimsonKarter21

My strategy is to go with the first break, go with the counter-attack. Then once the counter attack is in, attack solo.

Frunkin

It definitely helps to know the team representation, who can roll a break, who will work, and who you can out sprint or out smart. If you don't know any of that keep throwing yourself at anything that looks dangerous.

Racer Ex 

Frankly, if you're not attacking in the parking lot, you need to HTFU and step up to the plate.

ft_critical

Do you have an in race recovery strategy to go with this?

gsteinb

It's a points race?

botto 

this.

it even works on occasion.

Bobby Lex

If you don't know who the strongest and/or smartest riders are in the field then it's a complete crapshoot. If you are VERY strong then do as several posters have suggested and repeatedly attempt to make your own break. Eventually one should stick.

Otherwise, you can improve your odds a bit by recognizing the following:

1. Rarely will an early break stick, because early in a race everyone is fresh enough to chase anything down. (So improve your odds by sitting in and conserving energy early in the race).

2. Most successful breaks result from a counter-attack. (So improve your odds by letting someone else cover the first attack, and be ready to cover the counter-attack. Or better yet, initiate the counter-attack yourself).

3. Course and conditions will have an impact on where breaks are likely to occur. Climbs. Cross-winds. Technical sections. (So improve your odds by reconoitering the course and making a mental note of where attacks will have the most chance of succeeding. Pay attention to the weather. Stay up near the front in heavy cross-wind sections. Stay up near the front if it starts to rain.)

If you are not strong enough to cover every attack, you will have to play the odds and be selective about which breaks you cover, taking into consideration the general rules of thumb outlined above.

Bob

MDcatV

I posted similar question in January at this thread:

https://www.bikeforums.net/showthread...ight=Breakaway

after another season of racing, and one in which I was in a few successful breakaways and many more that were not successful (at least for me), I'm still learning.

if you're strong enough, initiate it yourself, take matters into your own legs and decide your fate. if not, then you've to be more selective. if you arent as strong as the competition, it's advantageous to slip onto the tail end of breaks, and not lose the wheel while things are forming, no matter what, cant lose the wheel - meaning be willing to get dropped if you think it's "the move" and put all your cards in. otherwise you're otb of the break and in no mans land until absorbed by the field.

if you're bridging, same thing. once you make up your mind to go, committ to getting there, no matter the consequence.

botto 

there's one guy who shows up at a weekly series who is always in the break. always.

to my knowledge, this is his strategy: let a break go up the road; let it settle; let it ride out of sight; wait a few laps; then flick the peloton and bridge.

sometimes he brings company. many times he doesn't.

it helps that he's a 2 time olympic team pursuiter.

gsteinb

I like to be away within the first three laps. Guys don't like to go hard from the start.

read: first three miles or so.

waterrockets 

+1

I've finished in the winning break five times (not counting kilo "breaks"). A couple of those were knowing exactly who to mark (guys who stick out like a sore thumb with their form), then going with them and driving the break. The other times, I initiated the break solo and rode at a pace that would force a bridge to work very hard to catch me. Both times, the bridgers that caught me were completely committed, fit, and relative unknowns in the pack.

If you solo off the front, make sure to stay committed, and hit it really hard. Too hard. You've got to force a selection among your bridgers. If you just go off the front 100m and wait for someone to bridge, you might not get the quality you're looking for in a break, but if you make them suffer to catch you, you'll have some hammer heads.

NomadVW 

I've been in two winning breaks this year, and a whole messin load that didn't get anywhere.

In March we had a break of four working from 6 miles into 40 to around 35 miles of 40. We got caught, I countered and one guy came across with ~2 miles to go and we finished it off. The success of this was GREATLY due to the team work in the peloton to control the attacks/pace on the finish.

The second winning break rolled off ~.2 miles into a 50 mile road race and we just drove on hard for 2½ hours.

In both of them, there were times that I was just a hair's-breadth from pulling the plug because of break disorganization, etc... thinking - this probably won't work. I opted to give it ~2-3 extra minutes to see if we get things moving, and they did.

In my opinion, breaks don't succeed because one or more of its members are unwilling to bury themselves to make it work. This doesn't count the guys sitting on for a tactical reason. This is usually the guys that get in a break and realize that it's going to hurt a lot for the next two hours and they don't want to get popped, so they'd rather pretend they're sitting on for a "tactical" reason when really they're sitting on because they're wussies. What they don't normally realize is the other guys in the break usually know they're wussies and will either A: drop them, B: also sit up and gamble on a reshuffle rather than drag dead weight.

On the original question - I ran into the challenge you have in Japan, where I would almost never know the racers I was going up against. It makes you very attentive to how people act/stand/look at the start line and in the first half hour of the race. How well do people know each other, how relaxed they look, etc.... And ultimately, in those situations, you have to depend on being one of the strong guys in the race because you're likely to have to burn more matches than you would otherwise.

Racer Ex 

He's in one of those places where they rank by letters. Using my system, which was based on years of study at the Helsinki Institute of Urban Decay, the OP would be able to judge the likelihood of the break's success in a fairly simple fashion provided he knows the "grade" of the racers involved.

Still think he should go OTF though. We could stop global warming if we all went OTF every race. That's a fact jack.

YMCA

Confidence is awesome.

When I'm on my game, this strategy is almost flawless.

gsteinb

I agree. If you ever want to stop slumming in TX come race in Yankee country. I'd ride with you.

botto 

you moving to the 203?

Framebender

You're the man, Racer Ex.

kensuf

I can't believe no one has brought up the topic of pass/fail racing..

https://bikesnobnyc.blogspot.com/2008...ut-art-of.html

Creakyknees

I forgot to mention, if you don't know anyone, it's good to count teams / riders to see who's well represented. Look for "the right combinations" of teams to go, such that the big teams will sit up.