Originally Posted by sac02
Yes, there are TONS of variables I didn’t include in this explanation: condition of the brakes, the skidder shifting his weight, etc.
Weight shifting is the biggest thing that isn't taken into account. Since the primary cause of the changes between your two equations is the rider's weight being moved forward, shifting the weight back would cause a huge difference in the two. The main thing that made me realize this was your free body diagrams. When braking (hand brake or drivetrain), my arms are pushing the bars away.
I'm not saying your physics isn't good and stuff, I'm just saying your quantifications might be a little off. I'd bet the factor of difference is more like 1.5 or 2 and not 6. But that's just an armchair physicists view.