put me in the "this is old news camp"
As peak oil becomes apparent to producers two things will happen, and both will decrease exports sharply. One will be some of these nations will attempt to husband what's left a bit more wisely and voluntarily cut back production to save some for later. The other thing is most are also experiencing increasing domestic consumption thus leaving less for export to begin with. I have a hunch the IEA doesn't take either into account.
But hey, if your one of the 20%'ers out there, like the Bush admin all is well, just take Daniel Yergin's word for it(chairman of the CERA and they've been forecasting oil going to 120mbpd).