I think Contador blows the roof off the race and wins on Ventoux by 1'30" or more. I just can't imagine a situation where he lets this race end on a historic climb without him winning the stage, and if he goes on Ventoux it'll be like Angliru last year ... he's shatter the peleton and win by a huge margin.
How people react after that will be interesting. I don't know if Frank can make up enough time on Lance to knock him off the podium. I think Lance will literally ride himself to death on Ventoux to not lose his place.