Old 08-02-09, 03:38 PM
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DenisMenchov
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Originally Posted by OrionKhan
Well, obviously this is your wish list for next season. Not really predictions based upon logical analysis. Okay, let's see how you'll do out of your 5 predictions:

1. Not everyone on Astana will go to TRS. So it is yet to be determined how strong that team will be. So it is fare to say that Lance will be on a weaker team as well. We know that AC won't be with them. That makes them weaker. AC will go to another team. That will make that team stronger. We won't know the difference in gain or loss until we know all of the participants on each team. Your speculation about AC losing time to both Lance and Andy is highly suspect. If there is a difference it will not be significant enough to overcome AC's advantages in the mountains and ITT.

2. Lance Armstrong will have to work his ass off to perform at the same level he did this year. Athletes turning 39 do not get better. At best the stay the same. Invariably they get worse. He won't get be better without significant phamaceutical aid. Additionally, AC and Andy are 26 and 24 years old. They have yet to reach their athletic peak performace age wise. Really bad news for Lance and everyone else.

3. Rasmussen has been out of commission for couple of years. We don't know how he will perform. We have seen Contador. Contador is still improving. When the Chicken beat AC, they were both different riders.

4. Vino, well....no comment

5. As was mentioned above, Lance and Andy will not be on a team strong enough to wipe out the significant gains that Contador will get in the mountains and the ITT. Unless you think the TTT will give 5-6 minute gains, they won't even be close to AC.

So you got 1 out of 5 correct. But that Vino one really isn't that much of a stretch.
If there is a TTT I'm positive AC will lose time. This puts more pressure on AC. I'm positive Levi will go TRS, and I'm sure Kloden will follow. I wouldn't doubt that a lot of the domestiques will follow as well, unless they have contract obligations.

Doubt AC will go to Garmin, especially after Wiggin's 4th place performance. Garmin doesn't want a GC rivalry that occurred on Astana.

AC had it easy this year by being on such a great team. It will be 10x harder for him to win next year, unless the motorcycles give him even more aid on the ITT. Remember what happened when AC was on his own in '06...he got beat by Rasmussen with ease. Expect to see the same thing with Schleck or LA next year.

Lance stated AC does have weaknesses, and I'm sure that will be exploited next year.
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