Counter-intuitive Cyclist Death Data by State
#51
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"5.7 cyclist deaths per million residents" makes no sense. Those among the "million" who didn't ride bikes should not factor in the stats. Different states have different % of people who don't ride bikes. A state where only 0.1% ride bikes, the death rate can't be high even if all the cyclists there died, compared to a state where 99% ride and only a small % died.
And this is what makes the states with lots of cyclists look bad in the accident/injury/death statistics.
Unfortunately, it is very hard to track real numbers of cyclists, or miles ridden.
Lots of proxy measurements. Bike sales, tires sales, polls? An app like Strava or RideWithGPS would be nice, but unfortunately only a small proportion of all riders use it (not necessarily the same percent everywhere). As wphamilton suggested, the data may be available with cell phones (or could be made available). But, it may be highly granular unless specific tracking apps are turned on (which chew up batteries).
#52
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Absolutely true.
And this is what makes the states with lots of cyclists look bad in the accident/injury/death statistics.
Unfortunately, it is very hard to track real numbers of cyclists, or miles ridden.
Lots of proxy measurements. Bike sales, tires sales, polls? An app like Strava or RideWithGPS would be nice, but unfortunately only a small proportion of all riders use it (not necessarily the same percent everywhere). As wphamilton suggested, the data may be available with cell phones (or could be made available). But, it may be highly granular unless specific tracking apps are turned on (which chew up batteries).
And this is what makes the states with lots of cyclists look bad in the accident/injury/death statistics.
Unfortunately, it is very hard to track real numbers of cyclists, or miles ridden.
Lots of proxy measurements. Bike sales, tires sales, polls? An app like Strava or RideWithGPS would be nice, but unfortunately only a small proportion of all riders use it (not necessarily the same percent everywhere). As wphamilton suggested, the data may be available with cell phones (or could be made available). But, it may be highly granular unless specific tracking apps are turned on (which chew up batteries).
As I said earlier these numbers are only a snapshot of a part of the big picture, so we have to look closer and use other info to try to tease out meaning.
That said, keep in mind that the Florida deaths are nearly double those of the other "high death" states. Meanwhile Florida is not in any way the state with the highest participation. So we need to look for other causes. Among these are narrow roads, elderly drivers, elderly riders who may be more likely to die in an accident where a younger rider would fare better. Other possibles may include more LCF commuters and utility cyclists, the effects of heat, and so on.
Another possibility may be that Florida has the shortest daylight in the riding season, so that may be a factor if Florida has a higher percentage of Dawn or Dusk cyclist deaths. It's not only a question of light/dark, but also one of low sun.
So, think of this data not as much about answers, but as leading to the right questions.
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Just because I'm tired of arguing, doesn't mean you're right.
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WARNING, I'm from New York. Thin skinned people should maintain safe distance.
#53
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I think a lot of it is ignorance and idiocy. Drivers who don't care, drivers who don't notice .... and possibly a lot of low-income low-awareness riders who don't know how to ride defensively. Florida has a lot of short-term residents, both snowbirds (people who live there in the winter months) and people who somehow end up in Florida because things crapped out elsewhere--I don't know why but while in Florida I saw a lot of it.
#54
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However, a large part of Florida definitely has a cycling season, and it runs opposite of the rest of the US because it's too hot and humid to ride in the summer. Those who do ride in the summer often ride early or late to avoid the heat, so they're riding in the more dangerous lighting conditions (I live part time in Cozumel, which is similar to Miami in latitude and temperature, so I'm familiar with the pattern).
Also consider that Florida, being father south has much smaller changes in day length, and that puts typical commuters much closer to sunrise/sunset.
BTW - when you read my posts on this thread, consider that I'm not trying to glean facts from the data, only trying to point out things to consider and possibly explore further.
..
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An ounce of diagnosis is worth a pound of cure.
Just because I'm tired of arguing, doesn't mean you're right.
“One accurate measurement is worth a thousand expert opinions” - Adm Grace Murray Hopper - USN
WARNING, I'm from New York. Thin skinned people should maintain safe distance.
FB
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An ounce of diagnosis is worth a pound of cure.
Just because I'm tired of arguing, doesn't mean you're right.
“One accurate measurement is worth a thousand expert opinions” - Adm Grace Murray Hopper - USN
WARNING, I'm from New York. Thin skinned people should maintain safe distance.
#55
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I know that this is the Advocacy section where every response is supposed to be combative ... sorry I was too mellow ...
I did a huge number of commuting miles in the greater Orlando area, at various times (working different shifts, job, classes, visiting friend ... out on the bike at all hours all over.) I know it was ranked the worst cycling city in America back then, but I don't know why. I don't know if drunks riding after DUI or stupid commuters or whoever was getting hit or dying.
I don't even know if the numbers were accidents, reported accidents, hospital visits, deaths ... deaths of people who weren't ugly and stupid 'cause who cares about the ugly, stupid ones ... I have no clue if the numbers were entirely fabricated.
I know more motorists were of the "swerve and scare him," "throw stuff," "run him off the road," variety then any other place I have ridden ... but maybe people just didn't like my looks. Or maybe my bike made them jealous ... or maybe I took it out of their trash and now they wanted it back.
I don't know when most cyclists commuted. I know many commuted year-round---the poor ones---and probably those were the ones most likely not to have lights (and maybe to be buzzed after work.) I know I worked several different shifts over the years and didn't see a lot of commuters anywhere at any time ... but I was never working in any of the local downtowns.
So basically, whatever you know, I know less. Is that sufficiently a challenge? Can I stay in the thread?
#56
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So what makes you think you're so special. That's true of half the posts here, if not more. If actually KNOWING ANYTHING is a requirement for posting, we wouldn't have a forum, we'd have a round table conversation. (around a small round table)
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An ounce of diagnosis is worth a pound of cure.
Just because I'm tired of arguing, doesn't mean you're right.
“One accurate measurement is worth a thousand expert opinions” - Adm Grace Murray Hopper - USN
WARNING, I'm from New York. Thin skinned people should maintain safe distance.
FB
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An ounce of diagnosis is worth a pound of cure.
Just because I'm tired of arguing, doesn't mean you're right.
“One accurate measurement is worth a thousand expert opinions” - Adm Grace Murray Hopper - USN
WARNING, I'm from New York. Thin skinned people should maintain safe distance.
Last edited by FBinNY; 09-24-16 at 09:53 PM.
#57
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BAC kills: 24% of cyclists killed had a blood/alcohol level of 0.08 or more.
Colliding with a car can be expected to have disastrous consequences but run-ins with moving vehicles account for only 11% of crashes. Falls account for 59% of all crashes, running into a fixed object account for 14% and running into another bicycle account for 9%.
I've been injured: it's like motorcycles-- if you ride long enough, most cyclists probably will be injured. 1/5th of all cyclists are injured annually and all cyclists can expect a minor injury every 3 years and have a more serious injury every 15 years.
(see, https://bicycleuniverse.info/transpo/almanac-safety.html)
Colliding with a car can be expected to have disastrous consequences but run-ins with moving vehicles account for only 11% of crashes. Falls account for 59% of all crashes, running into a fixed object account for 14% and running into another bicycle account for 9%.
I've been injured: it's like motorcycles-- if you ride long enough, most cyclists probably will be injured. 1/5th of all cyclists are injured annually and all cyclists can expect a minor injury every 3 years and have a more serious injury every 15 years.
(see, https://bicycleuniverse.info/transpo/almanac-safety.html)
#58
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There apparently is nothing definitive that pops out when looking at champions' choices over the years--e.g., Jan Ullrich, 177.5mm or...?
...Chris Boardman 170mm
Santiago Botero 172.5mm
Angel Casero 175mm
Mario Cipollini 172.5mm
Fausto Coppi 171mm
Malcolm Elliott 172.5mm
Tyler Hamilton 172.5mm
Bernard Hinault 172.5mm
Miguel Indurian 180mm (190mm for second Hour record!)...
see, Crank Arm Length Question - Page 2
...Chris Boardman 170mm
Santiago Botero 172.5mm
Angel Casero 175mm
Mario Cipollini 172.5mm
Fausto Coppi 171mm
Malcolm Elliott 172.5mm
Tyler Hamilton 172.5mm
Bernard Hinault 172.5mm
Miguel Indurian 180mm (190mm for second Hour record!)...
see, Crank Arm Length Question - Page 2
#59
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There apparently is nothing definitive that pops out when looking at champions' choices over the years--e.g., Jan Ullrich, 177.5mm or...?
...Chris Boardman 170mm
Santiago Botero 172.5mm
Angel Casero 175mm
Mario Cipollini 172.5mm
Fausto Coppi 171mm
Malcolm Elliott 172.5mm
Tyler Hamilton 172.5mm
Bernard Hinault 172.5mm
Miguel Indurian 180mm (190mm for second Hour record!)...
see, Crank Arm Length Question - Page 2
...Chris Boardman 170mm
Santiago Botero 172.5mm
Angel Casero 175mm
Mario Cipollini 172.5mm
Fausto Coppi 171mm
Malcolm Elliott 172.5mm
Tyler Hamilton 172.5mm
Bernard Hinault 172.5mm
Miguel Indurian 180mm (190mm for second Hour record!)...
see, Crank Arm Length Question - Page 2
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FB
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An ounce of diagnosis is worth a pound of cure.
Just because I'm tired of arguing, doesn't mean you're right.
“One accurate measurement is worth a thousand expert opinions” - Adm Grace Murray Hopper - USN
WARNING, I'm from New York. Thin skinned people should maintain safe distance.
FB
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An ounce of diagnosis is worth a pound of cure.
Just because I'm tired of arguing, doesn't mean you're right.
“One accurate measurement is worth a thousand expert opinions” - Adm Grace Murray Hopper - USN
WARNING, I'm from New York. Thin skinned people should maintain safe distance.
#60
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I pretty much never crash by those standards ....
#61
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Like others have sais-warm weather states people ride more
I am a proud of Louisiana #2-but perhaps we can do better!
Yes we have plenty of impaired drivers-and riders-I think Joey Bike has mentioned that many times-
my guess is just 5-10% are impaired -on average
At night-and weekends-more
I wonder how many of the deaths are kids?
I am a proud of Louisiana #2-but perhaps we can do better!
Yes we have plenty of impaired drivers-and riders-I think Joey Bike has mentioned that many times-
my guess is just 5-10% are impaired -on average
At night-and weekends-more
I wonder how many of the deaths are kids?
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What some of the better posts on this thread show is that statistics aren't the story. They're more likes the Cliff's Notes, showing a capsule view, yet lacking the detail needed to get a real sense of what's happening.
But they highlight interesting data points which warrant more exploration to get meaningful and useful information.
But they highlight interesting data points which warrant more exploration to get meaningful and useful information.
Last edited by NoShiftSherlock; 09-25-16 at 07:04 PM.
#63
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But much of the rest of the state is actually nice to ride.
Also, the fact that the weather is suitable to ride 12 months a year, and stupid tourists get themselves killed on vacation distort the stats.
We also lead the country in lightning strike deaths. More people outside more often increases deaths from outdoor activities.
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