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Counter-intuitive Cyclist Death Data by State

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Counter-intuitive Cyclist Death Data by State

Old 09-24-16, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by vol
"5.7 cyclist deaths per million residents" makes no sense. Those among the "million" who didn't ride bikes should not factor in the stats. Different states have different % of people who don't ride bikes. A state where only 0.1% ride bikes, the death rate can't be high even if all the cyclists there died, compared to a state where 99% ride and only a small % died.
Absolutely true.
And this is what makes the states with lots of cyclists look bad in the accident/injury/death statistics.

Unfortunately, it is very hard to track real numbers of cyclists, or miles ridden.

Lots of proxy measurements. Bike sales, tires sales, polls? An app like Strava or RideWithGPS would be nice, but unfortunately only a small proportion of all riders use it (not necessarily the same percent everywhere). As wphamilton suggested, the data may be available with cell phones (or could be made available). But, it may be highly granular unless specific tracking apps are turned on (which chew up batteries).
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Old 09-24-16, 12:09 PM
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Originally Posted by CliffordK
Absolutely true.
And this is what makes the states with lots of cyclists look bad in the accident/injury/death statistics.

Unfortunately, it is very hard to track real numbers of cyclists, or miles ridden.

Lots of proxy measurements. Bike sales, tires sales, polls? An app like Strava or RideWithGPS would be nice, but unfortunately only a small proportion of all riders use it (not necessarily the same percent everywhere). As wphamilton suggested, the data may be available with cell phones (or could be made available). But, it may be highly granular unless specific tracking apps are turned on (which chew up batteries).
Death vs. population is the only option for reliable data. There's no accurate count for the number of people who cycle in any state, but even if there were, we'd still have quibbles about how far, on roads vs trails, and so on. So while these numbers are less than ideal ad vulnerable to skews, they're about as good as we'll ever get.

As I said earlier these numbers are only a snapshot of a part of the big picture, so we have to look closer and use other info to try to tease out meaning.

That said, keep in mind that the Florida deaths are nearly double those of the other "high death" states. Meanwhile Florida is not in any way the state with the highest participation. So we need to look for other causes. Among these are narrow roads, elderly drivers, elderly riders who may be more likely to die in an accident where a younger rider would fare better. Other possibles may include more LCF commuters and utility cyclists, the effects of heat, and so on.

Another possibility may be that Florida has the shortest daylight in the riding season, so that may be a factor if Florida has a higher percentage of Dawn or Dusk cyclist deaths. It's not only a question of light/dark, but also one of low sun.

So, think of this data not as much about answers, but as leading to the right questions.
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Old 09-24-16, 12:35 PM
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Originally Posted by FBinNY
Another possibility may be that Florida has the shortest daylight in the riding season, so that may be a factor if Florida has a higher percentage of Dawn or Dusk cyclist deaths. It's not only a question of light/dark, but also one of low sun.
Florida has very long days during the riding season ... it might be a matter of sunset at 7:59 vs. sunset at 8:22, but there is plenty daylight. One issue might be that there is no "cycling season." Cycling is year-round, which might count for more dawn-to-dusk.

I think a lot of it is ignorance and idiocy. Drivers who don't care, drivers who don't notice .... and possibly a lot of low-income low-awareness riders who don't know how to ride defensively. Florida has a lot of short-term residents, both snowbirds (people who live there in the winter months) and people who somehow end up in Florida because things crapped out elsewhere--I don't know why but while in Florida I saw a lot of it.
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Old 09-24-16, 12:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Maelochs
Florida has very long days during the riding season ... it might be a matter of sunset at 7:59 vs. sunset at 8:22, but there is plenty daylight. One issue might be that there is no "cycling season." Cycling is year-round, which might count for more dawn-to-dusk....
I offered the lighting question as one to explore rather than as a theory.

However, a large part of Florida definitely has a cycling season, and it runs opposite of the rest of the US because it's too hot and humid to ride in the summer. Those who do ride in the summer often ride early or late to avoid the heat, so they're riding in the more dangerous lighting conditions (I live part time in Cozumel, which is similar to Miami in latitude and temperature, so I'm familiar with the pattern).

Also consider that Florida, being father south has much smaller changes in day length, and that puts typical commuters much closer to sunrise/sunset.

BTW - when you read my posts on this thread, consider that I'm not trying to glean facts from the data, only trying to point out things to consider and possibly explore further.
..
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Old 09-24-16, 09:27 PM
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Originally Posted by FBinNY
I offered the lighting question as one to explore rather than as a theory. ..
II got you beat ... I offered my responses a s mix of mindless musing and pure BS.

I know that this is the Advocacy section where every response is supposed to be combative ... sorry I was too mellow ...

I did a huge number of commuting miles in the greater Orlando area, at various times (working different shifts, job, classes, visiting friend ... out on the bike at all hours all over.) I know it was ranked the worst cycling city in America back then, but I don't know why. I don't know if drunks riding after DUI or stupid commuters or whoever was getting hit or dying.

I don't even know if the numbers were accidents, reported accidents, hospital visits, deaths ... deaths of people who weren't ugly and stupid 'cause who cares about the ugly, stupid ones ... I have no clue if the numbers were entirely fabricated.

I know more motorists were of the "swerve and scare him," "throw stuff," "run him off the road," variety then any other place I have ridden ... but maybe people just didn't like my looks. Or maybe my bike made them jealous ... or maybe I took it out of their trash and now they wanted it back.

I don't know when most cyclists commuted. I know many commuted year-round---the poor ones---and probably those were the ones most likely not to have lights (and maybe to be buzzed after work.) I know I worked several different shifts over the years and didn't see a lot of commuters anywhere at any time ... but I was never working in any of the local downtowns.

So basically, whatever you know, I know less. Is that sufficiently a challenge? Can I stay in the thread?
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Old 09-24-16, 09:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Maelochs
So basically, whatever [anyone] know[s], I know less. Is that sufficiently a challenge? Can I stay in the thread?
So what makes you think you're so special. That's true of half the posts here, if not more. If actually KNOWING ANYTHING is a requirement for posting, we wouldn't have a forum, we'd have a round table conversation. (around a small round table)
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Old 09-24-16, 10:33 PM
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BAC kills: 24% of cyclists killed had a blood/alcohol level of 0.08 or more.


Colliding with a car can be expected to have disastrous consequences but run-ins with moving vehicles account for only 11% of crashes. Falls account for 59% of all crashes, running into a fixed object account for 14% and running into another bicycle account for 9%.


I've been injured: it's like motorcycles-- if you ride long enough, most cyclists probably will be injured. 1/5th of all cyclists are injured annually and all cyclists can expect a minor injury every 3 years and have a more serious injury every 15 years.


(see, https://bicycleuniverse.info/transpo/almanac-safety.html)
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Old 09-24-16, 10:48 PM
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There apparently is nothing definitive that pops out when looking at champions' choices over the years--e.g., Jan Ullrich, 177.5mm or...?

...Chris Boardman 170mm
Santiago Botero 172.5mm
Angel Casero 175mm
Mario Cipollini 172.5mm
Fausto Coppi 171mm
Malcolm Elliott 172.5mm
Tyler Hamilton 172.5mm
Bernard Hinault 172.5mm
Miguel Indurian 180mm (190mm for second Hour record!)...

see, Crank Arm Length Question - Page 2
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Old 09-24-16, 11:01 PM
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Originally Posted by McBTC
There apparently is nothing definitive that pops out when looking at champions' choices over the years--e.g., Jan Ullrich, 177.5mm or...?

...Chris Boardman 170mm
Santiago Botero 172.5mm
Angel Casero 175mm
Mario Cipollini 172.5mm
Fausto Coppi 171mm
Malcolm Elliott 172.5mm
Tyler Hamilton 172.5mm
Bernard Hinault 172.5mm
Miguel Indurian 180mm (190mm for second Hour record!)...

see, Crank Arm Length Question - Page 2
Wrong thread?
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Old 09-25-16, 04:07 AM
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Originally Posted by McBTC
Colliding with a car can be expected to have disastrous consequences but run-ins with moving vehicles account for only 11% of crashes. Falls account for 59% of all crashes, running into a fixed object account for 14% and running into another bicycle account for 9%.
Whence come these numbers? When you say "run-ins with moving vehicles account for only 11% of crashes" do you mean fatal crashes, crashes requiring the police or an ambulance response, crashes which were reported to an insurance company?

I pretty much never crash by those standards ....
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Old 09-25-16, 04:10 PM
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Like others have sais-warm weather states people ride more

I am a proud of Louisiana #2-but perhaps we can do better!
Yes we have plenty of impaired drivers-and riders-I think Joey Bike has mentioned that many times-
my guess is just 5-10% are impaired -on average
At night-and weekends-more

I wonder how many of the deaths are kids?
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Old 09-25-16, 07:00 PM
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Originally Posted by FBinNY
What some of the better posts on this thread show is that statistics aren't the story. They're more likes the Cliff's Notes, showing a capsule view, yet lacking the detail needed to get a real sense of what's happening.

But they highlight interesting data points which warrant more exploration to get meaningful and useful information.
BINGO! I think you have to look a bit deeper into these statistics. I wouldn't say Florida, for instance, is an inherently dangerous place to ride at all and I've logged thousands and thousands (and thousands) of miles here. However, I do see a lot of salmon riding, dangerous crossing, frequent red light/stop sign running, and cyclists with no lights at night that could, potentially, up the amount of collisions and bicycle related incidents. I'd be willing to bet a good amount of these collisions with cars are wrong way riders either on the road or the sidewalk. The worst collision I've actually ever witnessed was a bicycle on bicycle crash coming around a corner where cyclist A had lights and cyclist B had none (and was wearing a dark shirt and jeans to boot). Had cyclist B had lights, this would've been a FAR more preventable crash.

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Old 09-29-16, 07:18 PM
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Originally Posted by jorglueke
The only thing that jumps out is the high number of deaths in Florida.
South Florida is very dense, with very poor bike infrastructure.

But much of the rest of the state is actually nice to ride.

Also, the fact that the weather is suitable to ride 12 months a year, and stupid tourists get themselves killed on vacation distort the stats.

We also lead the country in lightning strike deaths. More people outside more often increases deaths from outdoor activities.
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