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Old 02-03-17, 12:12 AM   #126
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Still not seeing it as really possible in this society. But of course, I could be wrong. I never though CDs would replace vinyl records as quickly as they did.
Just as airbags became mandatory, and initially caused some deaths, the technology improved to the point that we would not want cars without the safety of airbags.

So too will be the same situation w self driving cars as soon as they statistically save more lives than human drivers manage to kill.
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Old 02-03-17, 02:22 AM   #127
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Just as airbags became mandatory, and initially caused some deaths, the technology improved to the point that we would not want cars without the safety of airbags.

So too will be the same situation w self driving cars as soon as they statistically save more lives than human drivers manage to kill.
What do you mean initially? You should check the news, there are many Takada defective airbags on the roads and some of them are currently causing deaths.
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Old 02-03-17, 05:08 AM   #128
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What do you mean initially? You should check the news, there are many Takada defective airbags on the roads and some of them are currently causing deaths.
And overall, just how many lives have airbags saved?

Seatbelts occasionally trap someone inside a burning or sinking car too... so no doubt those too have no value.

Make no mistake, there will be deaths caused by self driving cars... but eventually, there will be fewer deaths than those caused by human drivers. If you are expecting perfection, you apparently haven't followed the history of things made by man.
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Old 02-03-17, 07:18 AM   #129
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Just as airbags became mandatory, and initially caused some deaths, the technology improved to the point that we would not want cars without the safety of airbags.

So too will be the same situation w self driving cars as soon as they statistically save more lives than human drivers manage to kill.
I don't doubt that. I just don't believe it will come as quickly as you think. Airbags were developed in that late 60s and first introduced commercially in the early 70s. They didn't really gain widespread acceptance until the late 80s and became mandatory in 98.

I received a notice that my truck has one of the dreaed Takata airbags about a year ago. But it said they had no replacements due to market shortages and they'd let me know when they did. It's a 2009 model, so I think they're just waiting until more of them are off the road to reduce replacement costs.
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Old 02-03-17, 07:47 AM   #130
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What do you mean initially? You should check the news, there are many Takada defective airbags on the roads and some of them are currently causing deaths.
Takata, not Takada.

IF YOU ARE DRIVING A VEHICLE THAT IS UNDER RECALL, OR THINK YOU MIGHT BE DRIVING A VEHICLE UNDER RECALL, please, check HERE.

(Honda Owners - CHECK HERE.)


If you have read and understood the news, you'd know that the recall campaign has been in progress for some time.

11 people have died in the US as a result of the defective Takata inflators, 9 of them in a Honda.

My spouse's 2009 Honda Fit was recalled, so for two months we had a rental Hyundai Accent while the Fit was waiting in the queue for a replacement. That's how seriously Honda took the risk. We were happy to get the Fit back, repaired.

Early January my spouse was in a crash, t-boned at ~30 mph in the driver's door by a SUV.

The Honda Fit has an "ACE Body Structure" - the door displaced ~40 cm into the passenger compartment. The seatback airbag and side curtain airbag deployed, and, er, may have contributed to the possible mitigation of what might have been serious injuries, including maybe permanent life-changing injuries or perhaps death. (I think that's the approved everlasting gobstopper thread phrasing.) My spouse was not wearing a helmet.

We now have a new Honda Fit.

-mr. bill

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Old 02-03-17, 08:35 AM   #131
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I don't doubt that. I just don't believe it will come as quickly as you think. Airbags were developed in that late 60s and first introduced commercially in the early 70s. They didn't really gain widespread acceptance until the late 80s and became mandatory in 98.

I received a notice that my truck has one of the dreaed Takata airbags about a year ago. But it said they had no replacements due to market shortages and they'd let me know when they did. It's a 2009 model, so I think they're just waiting until more of them are off the road to reduce replacement costs.
You may be ultimately right about the timing... but in the meantime, bits of the collision avoidance technology ARE being mainstreamed by all automakers.

And no doubt there will remain a need for manual drive vehicles for some tasks.
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Old 02-03-17, 09:47 AM   #132
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Just as airbags became mandatory, and initially caused some deaths, the technology improved to the point that we would not want cars without the safety of airbags.

So too will be the same situation w self driving cars as soon as they statistically save more lives than human drivers manage to kill.
They will be mainstreamed LONG before any meaningful weight of statistical data aggregation can prove they really are in fact safer. We already know they are safer. In point of fact, they are on the road NOW, and if anyone thinks that 'they' think that the human drivers riding shotgun in the test fleets are actually there to "save" the vehicle should the computer(s) screw up... ... again, there are autonomous cars on the road, right NOW. They are not prototypes. They are not perfect, not by a long shot, but they appear to be perfect enough for the initial go live to commence.

Pretty slick too. Put them on the road right under the nose and objections of the DOT, with human failsafes. Who can argue with that. Notwithstanding that the DOT surely has terabytes of analysis of human reaction times and engagement behavior to know how utterly futile a measure this is. In fact, by the very fact that these cars are on the road with or without human supervision is to tacitly acknowledge the readiness of these systems for prime time. The DOT is complicit in a scheme to get the public used to seeing vehicles with LIDAR arrays on the roof and and drive like your grandmother would, if she would drive. When Geico or Progressive tell you next year, in a terse e-mail that effective Jan 1, 2020 that insurance rates for anyone not "driving" a self-driving car will be $1 per minute moving, and $0.50 per minute stationary, with vehicle in drive... ...

But the real, and so far much less discussed, collateral impact will be commercial trucking fleets. Specifically the 3 million licensed tractor-trailer drivers that will be made redundant. Railroads place a much higher value on freight than people, and the rapid introduction of automation into passenger automobiles is mainly to prove their worth in moving freight. Once enough people have tested the systems with their lives, the big rigs will own the roads. Day and night. No more restricting trucks to the slow lane. It will be passenger (autonomous at that) vehicles restricted to the slow lane, and programmed to yield unconditionally to freight hauling and emergency vehicles.

Aren't you happy you choose to ride a bicycle?

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Old 02-03-17, 11:04 AM   #133
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Wow. What a dystopian future.

Automated vehicles everywhere.

They'll need to follow a few simple algorithmic rules to sort out which automated vehicle has priority to minimize the risk crashing into each other, with a few rare exceptions on how to deal with people not in automated vehicles. But anyone not in an automated vehicle would be well advised to get out the way of automated vehicles - because it doesn't matter if you are right if you are dead right.

We'll call these automated vehicles "automobiles." People on foot and people on bicycles beware.

-mr. bill
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Old 02-03-17, 11:05 AM   #134
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I was passed two days ago in the bike lane by a self driving Uber - in a very complex, busy college campus environment. It went fine. The neat thing about deep-learning is that we're seeing a higher than linear - almost exponential rate of improvement with regard to complex scenarios that require drivers to take over.

There are many drivers that are incompetent and should probably not have drivers licenses, that safely pass cyclists and don't hit pedestrians. It is not realistic to expect bad drivers to somehow make exponential improvements - if anything they are getting worse. Then there are those drivers that do hit us... Because drivers can only get lucky for so long before their incompetence kills someone. I routinely see drivers veering into the bike lane before and after they pass me. People on their cellphones will occasionally drift into my lane. They will sometimes fly through a red light - like the time my girlfriend was t-boned by a distracted driver as she turned through an intersection. Heck, just the other day when we were driving home from another city on the interstate - about 90 mph, the car far in front of us continued driving straight, veering off a curve and nearly plummeted into a ravine. The driver corrected at the last second, tires screeching and all, saving themselves at the last moment. Let's not try to pretend that the bar of "safety" for self-driving cars is anything but pretty dang low.

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Old 02-03-17, 11:22 AM   #135
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While Cellery makes a good point that the bar is low, human nature and political pressure will require that the bar be set way higher for self driving cars. I idea of a machine that may kill drivers/pedestrians/cyclist somehow scares people more than drivers controlling vehicles 10 x more likely to kill them.
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Old 02-03-17, 12:30 PM   #136
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While Cellery makes a good point that the bar is low, human nature and political pressure will require that the bar be set way higher for self driving cars. I idea of a machine that may kill drivers/pedestrians/cyclist somehow scares people more than drivers controlling vehicles 10 x more likely to kill them.
I agree. And this is only good news for us, since any small incremental improvement over the usual human error - I will gladly take with open arms.
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Old 02-03-17, 12:40 PM   #137
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And no doubt there will remain a need for manual drive vehicles for some tasks.
This much is certain. Which is why I am perplexed by Google's unwavering commitment to steering-wheel-less self driving cars. This mandates that every location you could possibly go requires the ability to program a gps location and for that location to be road-routable somehow. Knowing the types of places people get their cars to lead to the conclusion that Google software engineers don't leave the city.
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Old 02-03-17, 05:39 PM   #138
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I routinely see drivers veering into the bike lane before and after they pass me. People on their cellphones will occasionally drift into my lane.
Driving home today the car in front of me was driving with the right wheels in the center of the bike lane. When I passed them, they were indeed texting.
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Old 02-03-17, 05:48 PM   #139
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While Cellery makes a good point that the bar is low, human nature and political pressure will require that the bar be set way higher for self driving cars. I idea of a machine that may kill drivers/pedestrians/cyclist somehow scares people more than drivers controlling vehicles 10 x more likely to kill them.
Where/how have you and other posters arrived at the conclusion that self driving cars are less likely to kill or injure (let alone be 10x safer) for their passengers and everyone else in their vicinity - from the PR campaigns and conjured scenarios promulgated by Google, Uber, Tesla/Musk and other self serving promoters and their flacks?
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Old 02-03-17, 07:05 PM   #140
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ILTB Since there are no data I obviously stated my opinion. Feel free to use your own opinion for your posts. But I still believe that people will expect a far greater safety record from auto-drive cars than they expect of human drivers. Of course, there has been no systematic study of that at all, so its all opinion at this point.

I also believe that acceptance of driverless cars is 10 years off, and requirement for same will be 40+ years, if ever. Speaking of the US anyway. Few will be willing to give up the control and joy of driving.

But to make it clear to ILTB thanks to K Hepburn - Rubin, I just made it up.

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Old 02-03-17, 07:32 PM   #141
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T
My spouse's 2009 Honda Fit was recalled, so for two months we had a rental Hyundai Accent while the Fit was waiting in the queue for a replacement. That's how seriously Honda took the risk.

-mr. bill
Ford, OTOH, doesn't really seem to care. They first sent a notice perhaps a year ago, although I might suspect they actually knew about it well before that. And all they said was 'we'll tell you when we have replacements available.' Which I'm starting to think may not ever happen.
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Old 02-03-17, 09:14 PM   #142
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And overall, just how many lives have airbags saved?
Yet your post implied ALL of the problems were solved.
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Old 02-03-17, 09:20 PM   #143
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U.S. indicts three Takata executives, fines company $1 billion in air-bag scandal
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.52f8e352b3d9

But we should all trust Uber with cyclist lives. They would never lie.
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Old 02-03-17, 09:38 PM   #144
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Yet your post implied ALL of the problems were solved.
No, you merely infered that. Airbags save lives. They are not perfect.
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Old 02-03-17, 09:38 PM   #145
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But to make it clear to ILTB thanks to K Hepburn - Rubin, I just made it up.
That is OK, your guess is no better or worse or based on any more or less credible evidence than the guesses and wishful thinking of the promoters and their fanboys.
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Old 02-03-17, 09:47 PM   #146
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This much is certain. Which is why I am perplexed by Google's unwavering commitment to steering-wheel-less self driving cars. This mandates that every location you could possibly go requires the ability to program a gps location and for that location to be road-routable somehow. Knowing the types of places people get their cars to lead to the conclusion that Google software engineers don't leave the city.
Google is not designing a car for all circumstances... they are designing for a specific and very common use... just as a Honda Fit will not do what a Ford F-150 may be able to do... there will be different robo cars for different tasks.

Just how many bikes do you own? Are they all interchangeable for all environments?

Think outside the box and stop being constrained by just what google does.

Oh and before you go there, no, it is not likely that you will own a different vehicle for each task you may undertake... just as today you might rent a truck to move a friend but probably don't drive that to just take kids to school.

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Old 02-03-17, 09:53 PM   #147
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Just as airbags became mandatory, and initially caused some deaths, the technology improved to the point that we would not want cars without the safety of airbags.
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No, you merely infered that. Airbags save lives. They are not perfect.
Your first post clearly implies air bags are no longer causing deaths.
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Old 02-04-17, 10:10 AM   #148
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Think outside the box and stop being constrained by just what google does.
Exactly! Use your imagination and you can dream up any incredible self driving/automatic driving development where the self driving cars can anticipate every possible outcome of every possible combination of variables in moving traffic scenarios, and always make the appropriate decision directing the movement of the vehicle (which of course will be developed to instantly respond as directed by the perfect software programming.)

Naturally every other vehicle and living object nearby will also be making identically perfect and appropriate driving, walking, and cycling decisions leading to a perfect safety record for all.

Ahh, thinking outside the box is so much more fun than thinking clearly! Might even raise a lot of money for promoting the dream.
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Old 02-04-17, 06:00 PM   #149
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Exactly! Use your imagination and you can dream up any incredible self driving/automatic driving development where the self driving cars can anticipate every possible outcome of every possible combination of variables in moving traffic scenarios, and always make the appropriate decision directing the movement of the vehicle (which of course will be developed to instantly respond as directed by the perfect software programming.)
Yes it's a dream alright. What a computer cannot do of course is predict the future, which I often can. Waiting in my work vehicle to turn across traffic into a side road the other day I noticed a cyclist on the far footpath waiting to cross the side-street I was going to turn into. He was looking over his shoulder at the traffic I was watching and when a gap occurred he bolted out across the side street without a thought.

That gap was the one I was going to use, and I did, but I waited just long enough to allow him to reach the middle of the lane so he would not panic and stop and I would clear him. If something had have gone wrong I would no doubt have driven up the gutter behind him, knocking over a road sign but keeping us both safe. A computer would have seen the light pole he was leaning on and a stationary blob beside it with no idea the blob was about to move out.

A smart computer would have accelerated to car instantly the gap opened in the traffic and then no doubt slammed on its brakes as the cyclist came onto the road. Meanwhile the gap would be closing and a truck doing 70 km/h would be bearing down on the car. What would the computer do I asked myself? Would it sit there and allow the occupants to die? Would it take off again and kill the cyclist? One thing I doubt it would do is run up over the gutter through a road sign.

If we look around we see these sorts of traffic scenarios all day long. We see the idiot coming up behind us stabbing from lane to lane in such a hurry to get home and we know the safest thing to do is keep out of their way and let them pass. In other words we can interpret the future to some degree.

Self-drive cars are a joke played in investors, a scam, a dream, and will never see general uptake in our complex urban environments.





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Old 02-04-17, 06:24 PM   #150
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All may be true. But unless someone takes the time to dream there will be no progress.
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