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  1. #1
    Drive the Bicycle.
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    --- OK folks, the CEO of Chevron is facing up to the oil peak crisis and talking to us, the consuming public: www.willyoujoinus.com/vision/
    Their announcement is a huge boost to bicycling advocacy. I predict we cyclists will play a big role in helping our communities to become sustainable during the energy famine. Keep your tires pumped up and tell your friends.
    www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/
    Last edited by 77Univega; 07-16-05 at 12:58 PM.
    "The bicycle is the perfect transducer to match man's metabolic energy to the impedance of locomotion. Equipped with this tool, man outstrips the efficiency of not only all machines but all other animals as well." Ivan Illich ('Energy and Equity')1974

  2. #2
    feros ferio John E's Avatar
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    Over the long term, peak oil is real, although short term prices and supplies will fluctuate. If done correctly, the conversion from a petrolem-based economy to alternative energy and aggressive conservation will be one of the biggest economic OPPORTUNITIES this country has ever enjoyed.

    In addition, I was very pleased to hear President Bush finally admitting that the U.S. needs to something about global warming. While rejecting the precise terms of the Kyoto Agreement, he did pledge that over the next decade, the U.S. will generate 18% less CO2 per unit of economic productivity. We BFers, of course, know what we can do in the transportation sector; now we just have to give the President some lessons in bike safety.
    "Early to bed, early to rise. Work like hell, and advertise." -- George Stahlman
    Capo [dschaw'-poe]: 1959 Modell Campagnolo, S/N 40324; 1960 Sieger, S/N 42624
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  3. #3
    Castiron Perineum Bockman's Avatar
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    I disagree, having read The Myth of "Peak Oil" by Charles Featherstone.

    One small factoid of interest: there is more petroleum within the Athabasca Tar Sands than in all of the rest of the world combined. It's only a matter of time before production techniques will make refining it profitable.
    The best libertarian podcast on the internet! freedomainradio.com

  4. #4
    Giant-Riding Ogre Don Gwinn's Avatar
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    Depends on your definition of "long term," I suppose. In the long-long-long term, it is absolutely inevitable that at some point the alternatives will overtake oil as the best choice economically. If the U.S. controls those sources, we get to continue Pax Americana.
    (More or less.)

    This is all just my opinion, of course.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bunabayashi
    I disagree, having read The Myth of "Peak Oil" by Charles Featherstone.

    One small factoid of interest: there is more petroleum within the Athabasca Tar Sands than in all of the rest of the world combined. It's only a matter of time before production techniques will make refining it profitable.
    I think Charles must have feathers or stones in his head. He doesn't really understand (or pretends not to) what Peak Oil means. It doesn't mean that oil is about to run out, it just means we've used up half of the reserves. Anyone who tells you differently is ignorant about the issue. No informed person who speaks of Peak Oil believes we are about to run out, but that is the premise Featherstone takes great pains to refute.

    Hitting Peak Oil simply means we have--or will hit the next couple of years--the half-point of usable world oil reserves. The half-point is also the high point of production, so production slowly dwindles after that point in time, and if demand continues to rise the prices ratchets up slowly and steadily, though it may go down at times as well.

    The process of calculating the world peak is based on the geologist Hubert's work. Hubert's calculations nailed the U.S. peak. It isn't conjecture. The same calculations put the world peak sometime in the mid to late portion of this decade.

    But again, hitting Hubert's Peak only means we've used up half. Featherstone, touted on the web page as a "journalist specializing in energy" should know this. Maybe he does. It's always easier to caricature the position you're attacking.

    Featherstone does make good points otherwise, but his concluding paragraph amounts to a "we'll figure something out" when oil prices get too high, which is in direct opposition to 90% of his article. His only support for his conclusion is that humans will be "motivated" to innovate in order to prevent the drastic changes the end of cheap energy would require.

    So I guess if we just want it badly enough we'll always have cheap energy. Somebody cue "When you wish upon a star." I guess that's what happens when you raise a society on Disney instead of religious or mythic traditions with real weight.

  6. #6
    Drive the Bicycle.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bunabayashi
    One small factoid of interest: there is more petroleum within the Athabasca Tar Sands than in all of the rest of the world combined. It's only a matter of time before production techniques will make refining it profitable.
    --- Yes, it's only a matter of time before production techniques will catch up, but it looks like it will be too far into the future to avoid the energy crisis. To quote from Chevron Oil:
    "Fossil fuels also exist in unconventional forms—hydrocarbons contained in oil-sands, and even shale are believed to have more energy content than all the oil in Saudi Arabia. The catch is that it may currently take more energy and may cost more to extract and produce oil from some of these unconventional forms than would be gained."
    If the tar sands were an effective source of petroleum, the oil companies would have used that factoid to refute the crisis.
    "The bicycle is the perfect transducer to match man's metabolic energy to the impedance of locomotion. Equipped with this tool, man outstrips the efficiency of not only all machines but all other animals as well." Ivan Illich ('Energy and Equity')1974

  7. #7
    Sophomoric Member Roody's Avatar
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    For the past 150 years, humanity has bought into the myth that "science" will always find timely solutions to the problems that "science" created. I would like this to be true, but at this point it looks like the solutions to global warming and depletion of petroleum reserves will come far too late, if they ever come at all. I am very glad that I will not be alive in 50 more years!

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    All fossil fuels are finite resources. They will run out, the real questions are when and what are we doing as a species to prepare for the inevitable? As the world population continues to grow while consumerism grows even faster (What happens when those billion plus people in China believe they are all entitled to a car the way Americans do?) the time of fossil fuel depletion grows closer and closer. If we are at the halfway point of the oil supply and it took roughly 150 years to use the great majority of that, it will take far less than 150 years to use the last half. Over 6 billion people on the planet right now, compared to less than 2 billion at the beginning of the 20th century. It doesn't take a genius to read the writing on the wall.
    Paul the Alloy Addict

  9. #9
    Senior Member cosmo starr's Avatar
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    im too busy getting ready for y3k

  10. #10
    High Desert of California
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    I live 1/2 mile from one job and 8 miles from another job. My wife works 1 mile away from work. If we run out of oil I will use a wood burning stove and fireplace. I will also use the microwave. I think I will be okay.
    " People don't go to church because, they say, Churchs are full of hypocrites. No they're not, there's room for plenty more!!"
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    High Desert of California
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    [In addition, I was very pleased to hear President Bush finally admitting that the U.S. needs to something about global warming.

    I don't buy into global warming. I don't know how old you are, but do back in the 70's scientists were warning us about global freezing. We were entering into a new ice age. Now it's global warming. I was reading recently in the paper that the overall temperatures of the Earth are 1 degree warmer than the 14th Century. At that time Earth was going through mini ice age, before the 14th Century temperatures were actually warmer than they are now. I don't know if you are going to believe that information or not but scientists don't even agree on global warming.
    " People don't go to church because, they say, Churchs are full of hypocrites. No they're not, there's room for plenty more!!"
    My Pastor

  12. #12
    Senior Member Dchiefransom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bike nut
    I live 1/2 mile from one job and 8 miles from another job. My wife works 1 mile away from work. If we run out of oil I will use a wood burning stove and fireplace. I will also use the microwave. I think I will be okay.
    Long before we run that short of oil, your wood burning stove will be illegal to use. The proposals exist now to outlaw using fireplaces.

  13. #13
    High Desert of California
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dchiefransom
    Long before we run that short of oil, your wood burning stove will be illegal to use. The proposals exist now to outlaw using fireplaces.
    Oh shoot there goes that idea. They will take my wood burning stove when they pry it from my cold dead fingers. LOL
    " People don't go to church because, they say, Churchs are full of hypocrites. No they're not, there's room for plenty more!!"
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  14. #14
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    Rush Limbaugh says there ain't no Peak Oil and that's good enough for most 'murricans.

    So, what you going to do about it?

    (not being belligerent, most 'murricans really hang on the Limbster's every word, and most think there's a technological fix for everything. "Dammit, we got men to the MOON!! We beat the Russkis!")

  15. #15
    Drive the Bicycle.
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    --- Here is a short television ad by Chevron Oil. When peak oil is on TELEVISION, even Rush will believe it!
    http://www.willyoujoinus.com/downloa...imeline-Lo.wmv

    Get two bicycles, one to ride and one for parts.
    "The bicycle is the perfect transducer to match man's metabolic energy to the impedance of locomotion. Equipped with this tool, man outstrips the efficiency of not only all machines but all other animals as well." Ivan Illich ('Energy and Equity')1974

  16. #16
    Sophomoric Member Roody's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lilHinault
    Rush Limbaugh says there ain't no Peak Oil and that's good enough for most 'murricans.

    So, what you going to do about it?

    (not being belligerent, most 'murricans really hang on the Limbster's every word, and most think there's a technological fix for everything. "Dammit, we got men to the MOON!! We beat the Russkis!")
    Ironic...There's no way we could get someone on the moon today. That is lost technology. We can't even get the damn shuttle launched.

    Nor are we anywhere close to "alternative energy" that could sustain current lifestyles.

  17. #17
    Drive the Bicycle.
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    --- Hey everybody, look at Chevron's new logo. www.willyoujoinus.com/vision/
    They have trademarked the phrase: "Human Energy".
    Excuse me but when I think of human energy, it is spelled b-i-c-y-c-l-e. Others may think of wheelchair or walking, or skateboard. How can they trademark that?
    "The bicycle is the perfect transducer to match man's metabolic energy to the impedance of locomotion. Equipped with this tool, man outstrips the efficiency of not only all machines but all other animals as well." Ivan Illich ('Energy and Equity')1974

  18. #18
    Chairman of the Bored catatonic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roody
    For the past 150 years, humanity has bought into the myth that "science" will always find timely solutions to the problems that "science" created. I would like this to be true, but at this point it looks like the solutions to global warming and depletion of petroleum reserves will come far too late, if they ever come at all. I am very glad that I will not be alive in 50 more years!

    It's not a myth, it's just people have also become mentally blind since then and don't realize they were using that answer back when they were a child.

    Basically it's arrogance meets pride vs common sense. arrogance in that the car is the "adult's vehicle" or the "superior vehicle", pride in that they refuse to use a "lesser vehicle", and common sense in that "you can go get that video at blockbuster just as easily on a bike, and use less gas...as in NONE!"

  19. #19
    Drive the Bicycle.
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    --- Chevron is not the only major oil company to face up to the peak oil crisis. Here is Exxon-Mobile:
    "Now let’s look at the demand relative to the total liquids supply base out to 2030.
    The non-OPEC crude and condensate outlook is shown in green at the bottom. Production is expected to peak in the next 10 years or so with 70 per cent of production from seven areas (Russia, US, North Sea, Mexico, Canada, China, Brazil)."
    [my bolds]
    This quotation is not from some doomsday freak's blog, it is from Exxon-Mobile's own document:
    http://www.exxonmobil.co.uk/UK-Engli..._EO_150904.asp

    Stock up extra tires and tubes.
    "The bicycle is the perfect transducer to match man's metabolic energy to the impedance of locomotion. Equipped with this tool, man outstrips the efficiency of not only all machines but all other animals as well." Ivan Illich ('Energy and Equity')1974

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    Quote Originally Posted by 77Univega
    --- If the tar sands were an effective source of petroleum, the oil companies would have used that factoid to refute the crisis.
    Tar sands is a dead end. If we have to crush tons of rock and sand and employ thousands of workers to extract a gallon of oil, it will cost a fortune to drive! Furthermore, it will have to be process and refined before it's loaded on a tanker and shipped to your town when you finally get to pump it in your SUV at $275.00 dollars a gallon! I guess you won't be using the car very much.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roody
    Ironic...There's no way we could get someone on the moon today. That is lost technology. We can't even get the damn shuttle launched.
    That's because the Nazi rocket scientists that built America's Space Program are now all dead of old age or retired. "We" beat the Russians in the space race because "we" were better at hunting down Hitler's scientists after WWII than the commies were.

  22. #22
    Senior Member pedex's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dahon.Steve
    Tar sands is a dead end. If we have to crush tons of rock and sand and employ thousands of workers to extract a gallon of oil, it will cost a fortune to drive! Furthermore, it will have to be process and refined before it's loaded on a tanker and shipped to your town when you finally get to pump it in your SUV at $275.00 dollars a gallon! I guess you won't be using the car very much.
    Tar sands are already in use in Canada, which is the largest oil exporter to the US, yep its expensive, and messy, and an environmental nightmare, people thought strip mining was ugly, they should see tar oil mining LOL.

    As far as peak oil, we are seeing it now, it may not even be the actual definition of peak oil either, what we are seeing is peak oil production, the world is producing about as much as it can.The big fields are declining rapidly due to being pushed too hard with technology.At any rate, once the world actually realizes this is all there is, no more indefinite ramping up of energy production, lots of things change.The US govt and others depend on indefinite infinite economic growth to work, once it becomes clear that it can no longer happen things are going to get ugly.

    Oil is clearly in its end game, has been for years, what we are seeing now is very clear evidence of this, but as usual, we are also seeing explosive growth at the same time, something will have to give very soon.

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bike nut

    I don't buy into global warming. I don't know how old you are, but do back in the 70's scientists were warning us about global freezing. We were entering into a new ice age. Now it's global warming. I was reading recently in the paper that the overall temperatures of the Earth are 1 degree warmer than the 14th Century. At that time Earth was going through mini ice age, before the 14th Century temperatures were actually warmer than they are now. I don't know if you are going to believe that information or not but scientists don't even agree on global warming.
    Damn! I thought I was the only one who remembered that. I also remember people predicting that we'd be out of oil by the year 2000 and no one would own a car bigger than a Ford Pinto. There were also predictions that the world was running out of other basic resources such as copper -- which was supposed to be all depleted by now. I recall predictions of mass global starvation by the year 2000. I also remember a series of books about the coming global economic collapse. The books were titled "The Coming Great Depression of 1977", "The Coming Great Depression of 1978", "The Coming Great Depression of 1979", "The Coming Great Depression of 1980", "The Coming Great Depression of 1981", etc. These books were sold for about 25 years until the rubes finally caught on.

  24. #24
    King of the Forest Totoro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bunabayashi
    I disagree, having read The Myth of "Peak Oil" by Charles Featherstone.

    One small factoid of interest: there is more petroleum within the Athabasca Tar Sands than in all of the rest of the world combined. It's only a matter of time before production techniques will make refining it profitable.
    I have a friend who is an exec for one of the oil companies in the Tar Sands and their break even is $20 per barrel. So it already is profitable. Any engineers looking for work, they are hiring thousands of new people over the next few months (years). Starting salary is $80,000 with no experience. Experienced workers are making $120,000 plus.

    As for Kyoto, Bush has unwittingly done more for the environment than Kyoto could have done. By helping oil prices rise to record levels he has not only helped his oil friends acheive record profits, he has forced companies and individuals to be more vigilant about the way they use energy and to seek alternatives. You don't see Hummers flying off the lots any more. Bush the environmentalist...who would have thought!

  25. #25
    King of the Forest Totoro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cruentus
    Damn! I thought I was the only one who remembered that. I also remember people predicting that we'd be out of oil by the year 2000 and no one would own a car bigger than a Ford Pinto. There were also predictions that the world was running out of other basic resources such as copper -- which was supposed to be all depleted by now. I recall predictions of mass global starvation by the year 2000. I also remember a series of books about the coming global economic collapse. The books were titled "The Coming Great Depression of 1977", "The Coming Great Depression of 1978", "The Coming Great Depression of 1979", "The Coming Great Depression of 1980", "The Coming Great Depression of 1981", etc. These books were sold for about 25 years until the rubes finally caught on.
    Have you seen Soilent Green? Great movie!

    BTW: I think the Jehovah's Witnesses are still producing books like those. Scare mongerers are everywhere and the news media is no better. If we listened to everything they said, we would shut ourselves in our houses and not do anything. Child molesters are lurking on every corner, so don't let your kids out of the house by themselves. Terrorists are ready to strike you where you work, so don't take public transit. And the bird flu is going to wipe out half the world's population, so you better wear a mask and wash your hands every five minutes!

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