powerhouse

2011 is here and USA gasoline prices are $3.60 and climbing again. Chances are that we could again see them at $4.00 or more. Will this inspire more bicycle use? Would it inspire you to bicycle more? Discuss.

exile

It is usually not one thing alone that causes people to take up riding in my experience. It's a combination of things including gas prices, food prices, seeing other people riding <hey that's me, However I wish I could vouch for other posters >, and changes in perception.

BTW, gas prices are $3.80 in my area. I had to do a double take when I was stopped at a red light...next to an SUV .

Looigi

Perhaps, but like me, most of the riders I know only ride to ride, not run errands or commute. Once it warms up a bit I will commute on occasion, but to get in the training miles, not for any other reason. There are times I put the bike on the back of the car to drive somewhere to do a ride, so the case could be made that I burn more total gas because I ride than if I didn't, though if I'm riding, I'm not doing something else that could be consuming fuel so who knows...

My commute is 25 miles each way. If I was only commuting 5 miles, I do it on a bike even if gas was free.

nelson249

While some people might take to the bike I suspect that most of those will be 'bike people' who already ride recreationally. What seems to happen (based on the last time prices spiked) is that people dump their SUVs for econoboxes and try to group errands in one trip rather than look at alternatives. Then we get to watch them piss and moan on the local news when the predictable segment about gas prices makes a reprise.

TheHen

The last time we saw a similar small rise in fuel prices, demand for gasoline and miles driven were pretty inelastic until gasoline prices rose above $4.00/gal. After prices rose above $4, then it became obvious that people were doing exactly what Nelson249 described. Based on that, I would say that if we do get a real run-up of prices significantly over $4.50/gal, then we may actually see some folks try to get around a bit without their steel cage. Like Exile says, a lot will depend on people's perceptions of cyclists and the social environment. I would expect a lot of people with vested interests will try to create a public perception of cyclists as outside-the-mainstream losers or some other form of "them". Since most Americans are physically lazy and either overweight or outright obese, any excuse to not ride or walk finds fertile ground.

contango 

In the UK our gas prices are somewhere around double yours, sometimes slightly higher. At present we're paying a bit over $2/litre so somewhere around $8/gallon. We still have people driving their kids a mile to school in a big SUV.

To really take off cycling has to be seen as a viable alternative - among the problems I see as preventing that perception from really taking hold are issues relating to covering long distances, cycling in bad weather, carrying any meaningful cargo, or combinations. However high gas prices go I still can't sensibly cover 30 miles over mountains with a big box of stuff on a bike.

CB HI

Hawaii average is $4.25, and no new cyclist.

I did see more cyclist during the last bus strike.

CB HI

So leave the big box of stuff at work.

CabezaShok

Car'caine addicts will pay whatever price the pusher wants....Cough..OPEC..cough. The addict has to hit rock bottom before quitting is an option.

Wake

I just read an article reporting that auto manufacturers are not likely to make their required CAFE goal of 35.5mpg because car buyers are opting for the same large, high-hp vehicles they own now instead of the high-mpg models.

It said people won't change their habits unless they think the prices will not drop for a period of five years.

Lemmings running for the cliff.

Chris516

$3.75 here. I am glad I don't drive a car.

Chris516

That should be on a sign for all to see. You described four-wheel addicts to a 'T'.

John E

The rate of price change is probably as important as the price itself. Whenever gasoline prices spike we do see an increase in ridership on our local commuter rail line.

Digital_Cowboy

Sadly, I think that most are right that it'll take more than just gas climbing to astronomical prices. It'll have to climb and stay there permanently before people make any serious change in their transportation habits.

But when they finally do start making those changes. Those of us who are used to riding "long" distances will be well ahead of the curve.

jputnam

Gas prices may cause some marginal motorists to bicycle instead, but most Americans cannot conceive of bicycling as a practical commute alternative. And, thanks to two generations of car-centered land use planning, many of them are right.

We have tens of millions of people living in jurisdictions whose zoning makes short, bicycle-friendly commutes illegal. People who believed all work was dirty pushed to let everyone live far from work, in vast tracts of people storage with neither employment nor shopping near their homes.

It will be far easier for people in these communities to buy smaller, more efficient cars than it would be to commute by bike.

ModeratedUser150120149

Personal biases aside family transportation is now and will continue to be focused on personal transportation well into the future. Will there be more people on bikes? Absolutely. Will the personal vehicle be replaced by bicycles? Highly unlikely, especially in adverse climates and for family transport.

Those who are so strong advocates for cycling can make a meaningful contribution by lots of local action to make cycling more convenient and safe. I wonder though how many who are mouthy on the internet are willing to do the hard work locally in the political arena to make real difference?

contango 

Not always an option, especially for people who don't have a single regular place of work. What is, say, a plumber supposed to do?

Machka 

In this part of Australia petrol is about $1.40/litre ($5.30/gallon or so) ... and people are still driving.

We just drove over the mountain to get a new wash machine ... it would have been a bit difficult to haul that wash machine home by bicycle.

And where we live there is a challenging job situation for many families. The families live in the city where the kids go to school and one partner has a job, and the other partner drives 100 km, one way, in order to work in the country (where we live) because this is where the type of jobs they are qualified for (engineering, construction, etc.) are right now. Once things are rebuilt here, things will likely change, but this is how it is now. And there is very limited public transportation up here, so ... they drive.

ctyler

Agreed.

ctyler

You're kidding right? People in America actually getting somewhere on a bicycle? Using a bicycle for transportation and errands? Bicycling is either for kids or lycra clad racer boys on weekends. People will pay whatever the price is for gas and complain about it but do nothing to change their driving habits.

work4bike

Here in Jax, the price seems to have stagnated at ~$3.55; I wonder how much higher it will go and more importantly will it drop below that. I hope not, we've become too dependent of the stuff, best for it to gradually creep up rather than for it to drop only to skyrocket up again, which it will.

However, people just don't seem to get this, the last time gas prices surged (~2007/2008 timeframe) people were trying to get rid of their gas guzzlers. Then this past summer people started buying SUVs more than small cars https://www.newsday.com/classifieds/c...2191602...what gives, I wonder what they think now since prices surged again.

Simple fact is we need the gas price not to go down again, would be better if it continued to creep up; that would spur other technologies. Last thing we need is for prices to drop for a long period, only to be hit hard when they skyrocket. The question is, what's a good price for it to stabilize at for a while, I tend to think ~$5.00.

BTW, I was sitting at a traffic light yesterday, next to a white SUV, when the lady asks me why I don't ride on the sidewalk. I told her that this is my primary form of transportation and could not get anywhere quickly on the sidewalk with all the intersections/pedistrians slowing me down...didn't feel like lecturing to her about a bike's right to the roads, there's enough signs claiming that in my area, I guess the drivers don't see them. Another strange thing about this is she had a deep accent, sounded french.

irwin7638

A few people will change but we are a long way from Americans accepting bikes for anything but recreation. Look at the news,during a thirty minute discussion of alternative fuel and transportation only natural gas and electricity are discussed. Americans will find a new more expensive way to sit on their butts. At the same time you will see 20 references to cycling in the ads supporting the program. we're slowly sneaking in the back door but using a bike for routine transport is really beyond most people's imagination.

Marc

work4bike

It's not just the U.S., as if we're genetically predisposed to become more dependent on technology than anyone else. Any country in which the population has benefitted from that country's success will have its people somewhat "spoiled". China is falling victim to its own success, remember all the news stories of how the bike has been traded in for the car. And now there's this next leap in their increased standard of living: https://www.inautonews.com/chinas-suv...-units-in-2010

Monster Pete

I think seeing other people doing it is as big a factor as any. In places where there's a lot of bicycle use, it's seen as a 'normal' way to get around and someone would be more likely to consider cycling.

The Human Car

We already had gas at $4 a gallon so people are a bit desensitized to that price, my prediction is $5 a gallon we will see a major swing of new folks on bikes.