Wired Magazine analysis on bike safety
#1
Full Member
Thread Starter
Wired Magazine analysis on bike safety
In order to manage spousal fears on the dangers of cycling, I had been looking for an actuarial analysis of both sides of this issue (dangers vs health benefits).
I finally found it in Wired magazine a couple months back. They projected fatality likelihood, how it statistically shortens lives in bicycle riders as compared to car drivers/passengers. Then, they looked at the life elongating effects of the exercise of bicycling.
They're results? All things being equal, bicycling slightly improves longevity. When one factors in helmet use and controlling for safer cycling routes, the benefits of cycling far outweigh the dangers from an actuarial viewpoint.
I showed this study to my wife, to which she retorted, "Oh you think some little study is a match for my worrying power? Think again!"
Your mileage may vary.
I finally found it in Wired magazine a couple months back. They projected fatality likelihood, how it statistically shortens lives in bicycle riders as compared to car drivers/passengers. Then, they looked at the life elongating effects of the exercise of bicycling.
They're results? All things being equal, bicycling slightly improves longevity. When one factors in helmet use and controlling for safer cycling routes, the benefits of cycling far outweigh the dangers from an actuarial viewpoint.
I showed this study to my wife, to which she retorted, "Oh you think some little study is a match for my worrying power? Think again!"
Your mileage may vary.
#2
totally louche
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: A land that time forgot
Posts: 18,023
Bikes: the ever shifting stable loaded with comfortable road bikes and city and winter bikes
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 10 Times
in
9 Posts
Why does bicycling appear so tenuous in North Carolina?
Riders there are primarily recreational, and group up for safety.
Riders there are primarily recreational, and group up for safety.
#3
The Drive Side is Within
link?
__________________
The bicycle, the bicycle surely, should always be the vehicle of novelists and poets. Christopher Morley
The bicycle, the bicycle surely, should always be the vehicle of novelists and poets. Christopher Morley
#5
24-Speed Machine
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Wash. Grove, MD
Posts: 6,058
Bikes: 2003 Specialized Allez 24-Speed Road Bike
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 1 Time
in
1 Post
In order to manage spousal fears on the dangers of cycling, I had been looking for an actuarial analysis of both sides of this issue (dangers vs health benefits).
I finally found it in Wired magazine a couple months back. They projected fatality likelihood, how it statistically shortens lives in bicycle riders as compared to car drivers/passengers. Then, they looked at the life elongating effects of the exercise of bicycling.
They're results? All things being equal, bicycling slightly improves longevity. When one factors in helmet use and controlling for safer cycling routes, the benefits of cycling far outweigh the dangers from an actuarial viewpoint.
I showed this study to my wife, to which she retorted, "Oh you think some little study is a match for my worrying power? Think again!"
Your mileage may vary.
I finally found it in Wired magazine a couple months back. They projected fatality likelihood, how it statistically shortens lives in bicycle riders as compared to car drivers/passengers. Then, they looked at the life elongating effects of the exercise of bicycling.
They're results? All things being equal, bicycling slightly improves longevity. When one factors in helmet use and controlling for safer cycling routes, the benefits of cycling far outweigh the dangers from an actuarial viewpoint.
I showed this study to my wife, to which she retorted, "Oh you think some little study is a match for my worrying power? Think again!"
Your mileage may vary.
I am not trying to be insulting towards your wife. It is just that, she sounds exactly like one of my relatives who didn't want me biking or biking very far. I told that relative that I will not be pidgeon-holed as to their biking worries. It doesn't mean that I am not capable of judging where I can(and cannot) bike.
They just have to accept that I make that judgment call and their worries will not dictate where I ride.
My fiance doesn't even worry about my biking, to the amount that my other relative does.
#6
Half way there
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 1,109
Bikes: 69 Hercules, 73 Raleigh Sports, 74 Raliegh Competition, 78 Nishiki Professional, 79 Nishiki International, 83 Colnago Super, 83 Viner Junior
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 1 Time
in
1 Post
And how do you define "recreational". If it is doing stuff for fun, then are most cyclists in the US "primarily recreational"? I derive a great deal of pleasure out of my daily commute, and would say that would make me a recreational rider then. Perhaps you mean "avocational", i.e. not doing it for money. But then why do the "vocational" (i.e. professional) cyclists group up? Oh, that's right - because then they go faster. But wait, when I group up with other riders, I go faster too, but then I feel a bit less safe due to the threat of wheel overlap. I have heard that this grouping up affect occurs in locations other than North Carolina, though.
What does it all mean?
-G
PS: Todzilla, I have had a heck of a lot more close calls as a pedestrian than a cyclist. Show your wife some stats on dangers of walking.
#7
Full Member
Thread Starter
I wouldn't characterize bicycling as "tenuous" in North Carolina. To the contrary, my neck of the tarheel state is very cycle friendly. My bike commute is nicely coincidental with a state bike route and 95% of motorists are very respectful.
#8
Full Member
Thread Starter
Hmmm....If you accurately quoted your wife, she sounds pro-car to me, like walking to the corner store to get a few groceries, or biking to get the mail is beneath her. She is an OPEC jewel.
I am not trying to be insulting towards your wife. It is just that, she sounds exactly like one of my relatives who didn't want me biking or biking very far. I told that relative that I will not be pidgeon-holed as to their biking worries. It doesn't mean that I am not capable of judging where I can(and cannot) bike.
They just have to accept that I make that judgment call and their worries will not dictate where I ride.
My fiance doesn't even worry about my biking, to the amount that my other relative does.
I am not trying to be insulting towards your wife. It is just that, she sounds exactly like one of my relatives who didn't want me biking or biking very far. I told that relative that I will not be pidgeon-holed as to their biking worries. It doesn't mean that I am not capable of judging where I can(and cannot) bike.
They just have to accept that I make that judgment call and their worries will not dictate where I ride.
My fiance doesn't even worry about my biking, to the amount that my other relative does.
#9
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 23,208
Mentioned: 89 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 18883 Post(s)
Liked 10,646 Times
in
6,054 Posts
#10
Randomhead
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Happy Valley, Pennsylvania
Posts: 24,387
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4 Post(s)
Liked 3,687 Times
in
2,510 Posts
I don't think it's horribly irrational. Most of us will live through our cycling careers without a major accident, but it does seem that the population of people that put in a lot of miles has a higher incidence of serious accidents than I feel comfortable with. And many of these victims are safe riders that get into situations that is beyond their control. That being said, we tend to discount the incidence of car accidents in this sort of risk calculation. I think the closest I've gotten to a fatal accident due to my cycling activities was during the drive home.
#11
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Pacific, WA
Posts: 1,260
Bikes: Custom 531ST touring, Bilenky Viewpoint, Bianchi Milano, vintage Condor racer
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 2 Times
in
2 Posts
I wouldn't usually think of Wired for actuarial analysis.
Peer-reviewed health research suggests the advantage is hugely in favor of cycling benefits vs. accident risk. (Some studies come a bit higher, some lower, but I'm not aware of any that have put it anywhere close to breakeven.) And that advantage holds in countries with very low helmet use.
Cycling to work reduces the risk of premature death by 40%. (Copenhagen Heart Study, Andersen et al., 2000)
Cyclists who cover at least 25 miles each week can halve their risk of heart disease (Morris et.al., 1990)
Cycling increases bone density, which offsets osteoporosis. (Hillman, 1992; Cavill and Davis, 2003)
Cycling improves psychological and mental wellbeing and self-esteem as well as reducing the risk of stress, depression and anxiety (Pearce et al.. 1998; Shayler et al., 1993; Cavill and Davis, 2003)
Life years gained by cycling outweigh life years lost in accidents by 20 to 1 (Baden et al., 1998)
Peer-reviewed health research suggests the advantage is hugely in favor of cycling benefits vs. accident risk. (Some studies come a bit higher, some lower, but I'm not aware of any that have put it anywhere close to breakeven.) And that advantage holds in countries with very low helmet use.
Cycling to work reduces the risk of premature death by 40%. (Copenhagen Heart Study, Andersen et al., 2000)
Cyclists who cover at least 25 miles each week can halve their risk of heart disease (Morris et.al., 1990)
Cycling increases bone density, which offsets osteoporosis. (Hillman, 1992; Cavill and Davis, 2003)
Cycling improves psychological and mental wellbeing and self-esteem as well as reducing the risk of stress, depression and anxiety (Pearce et al.. 1998; Shayler et al., 1993; Cavill and Davis, 2003)
Life years gained by cycling outweigh life years lost in accidents by 20 to 1 (Baden et al., 1998)
#12
Senior Member
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 8,951
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 14 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 13 Times
in
12 Posts
I like road riding and am willing to accept the risks, but I'll just mention the obvious. It's exercise that provides benefits, not bicycles. You can get the benefits of exercise doing something less dangerous than road riding.
#13
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 23,208
Mentioned: 89 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 18883 Post(s)
Liked 10,646 Times
in
6,054 Posts
Cycling improves psychological and mental wellbeing and self-esteem as well as reducing the risk of stress, depression and anxiety (Pearce et al.. 1998; Shayler et al., 1993; Cavill and Davis, 2003)
Riding a bike on a trainer in your living room, for many people at least, won't have the same benefits in terms of reduction of stress, depression, and anxiety. It's true that any exercise will be beneficial in these terms, but cycling provides things like fresh air, sunshine, and a more intimate connection with the communities you ride through (regularly) that isn't matched by lifting weights at the gym.
#14
Senior Member
is this the article?
https://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/09/st_kia_bike/
There's all kinds of info out there.
Dave Moulton wrote a blog on this too
https://davesbikeblog.blogspot.com/20...ve-longer.html
https://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/09/st_kia_bike/
According to a 2006 study by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation, there were just 0.07 fatalities per every million miles traveled by the state’s bicyclists, versus 0.02 fatalities for every million miles logged by cars. Also, the fitness-boosting benefits of cycling may outweigh the risks: A 2010 Dutch study concluded that people who switch from driving to cycling for short trips actually increase their average life expectancy by up to 14 months.
Dave Moulton wrote a blog on this too
https://davesbikeblog.blogspot.com/20...ve-longer.html
When comparing the fatality risk by miles traveled, every one million miles cycled, (1.6 Million Kilometers.) produces 0.039 cyclist fatalities, compared to 0.016 fatalities for motorists...
However, this statistic is flawed to the point that it can be ignored, for the simple reason it would take a cyclist riding slightly under 385 miles per week, 50 years to ride one million miles..
.For every million hours spent cycling the fatality rate is 0.26, compared to 0.47 deaths per million driving hours. Therefore, driving a motor vehicle has nearly twice the risk of fatality as riding a bike for a given duration...
Statistics confirm that you can also reduce your risk of an accident if you don’t do the following: Don’t ride on the sidewalk and suddenly appear in front of motorists at intersections, especially if you are going the wrong way...
However, this statistic is flawed to the point that it can be ignored, for the simple reason it would take a cyclist riding slightly under 385 miles per week, 50 years to ride one million miles..
.For every million hours spent cycling the fatality rate is 0.26, compared to 0.47 deaths per million driving hours. Therefore, driving a motor vehicle has nearly twice the risk of fatality as riding a bike for a given duration...
Statistics confirm that you can also reduce your risk of an accident if you don’t do the following: Don’t ride on the sidewalk and suddenly appear in front of motorists at intersections, especially if you are going the wrong way...
Last edited by closetbiker; 11-23-11 at 03:59 PM.
#15
24-Speed Machine
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Wash. Grove, MD
Posts: 6,058
Bikes: 2003 Specialized Allez 24-Speed Road Bike
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 1 Time
in
1 Post
To her credit, she understands there's a strong component of irrationality to her worrying. She probably secretly fears I'll get paralyzed and she'll have to change the Depends. Alternatively, if I die of an obesity related heart condition while watching "So You Think You Can Dance" there's less messy work ahead.
This might sound mean to say to her, but with her irrational worry, I wouldn't be surprised if she would suddenly say something like 'I don't want you to end up being a story on the Spike TV cable channel's show '1000 Ways To Die'.
#17
Banned
My wife has her concerns, but she no longer voices them since I keep coming home without incident. Now on the other hand, someone really needs to have word with my employer.
#18
Senior Member
You could "Ride Defensively" and yield to cars and trucks, instead of trying to argue that you have the "Right of Way" , could you not?
#19
Cycle Year Round
__________________
Land of the Free, Because of the Brave.
Land of the Free, Because of the Brave.
#20
Cycle Year Round
You did it all wrong. See, I did sky diving before cycle commuting. My wife does not say a thing about cycling being dangerous.
__________________
Land of the Free, Because of the Brave.
Land of the Free, Because of the Brave.
#21
CRIKEY!!!!!!!
Join Date: May 2005
Location: all the way down under
Posts: 4,276
Bikes: several
Mentioned: 37 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1589 Post(s)
Liked 687 Times
in
365 Posts
Here in Australia our natural environment is so full of lethal flora and fauna that my wife is actually relieved of her worry when I decide to go play in traffic on my bike instead of fishing, hiking, camping, ect. as I often do with my friends.
Last summer we had a great white shark come up and harass us on our kayaks, I'm so glad I wasn't out there alone that time. Another time my buddy had a big chunk of his kayak torn off by a bull shark well inside Sydney harbor, fortunately he managed to climb up the navigation marker before the shark turned its attention from his 'yak to him. We were back in the water the following weekend eager to try out his brand new 'yak. I had a great run last summer, I only had one redback (black widow) spider bite all summer. I came very close to getting bit by a nasty old brown snake, although admittedly I was in the process of catching it for dinner so you can't really blame the snake for that one.
I try to reassure my wife by reminding her that there's virtually no chance of running into saltwater crocs where we fish.
Last summer we had a great white shark come up and harass us on our kayaks, I'm so glad I wasn't out there alone that time. Another time my buddy had a big chunk of his kayak torn off by a bull shark well inside Sydney harbor, fortunately he managed to climb up the navigation marker before the shark turned its attention from his 'yak to him. We were back in the water the following weekend eager to try out his brand new 'yak. I had a great run last summer, I only had one redback (black widow) spider bite all summer. I came very close to getting bit by a nasty old brown snake, although admittedly I was in the process of catching it for dinner so you can't really blame the snake for that one.
I try to reassure my wife by reminding her that there's virtually no chance of running into saltwater crocs where we fish.
#22
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Denver
Posts: 1,621
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 12 Times
in
12 Posts
is this the article?
https://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/09/st_kia_bike/
There's all kinds of info out there.
Dave Moulton wrote a blog on this too
https://davesbikeblog.blogspot.com/20...ve-longer.html
https://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/09/st_kia_bike/
There's all kinds of info out there.
Dave Moulton wrote a blog on this too
https://davesbikeblog.blogspot.com/20...ve-longer.html
#23
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 3,040
Bikes: Bacchetta Giro, Strada
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 6 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 1 Time
in
1 Post
Dave Moulton wrote a blog on this too
https://davesbikeblog.blogspot.com/20...ve-longer.html
https://davesbikeblog.blogspot.com/20...ve-longer.html
When comparing the fatality risk by miles traveled, every one million miles cycled, (1.6 Million Kilometers.) produces 0.039 cyclist fatalities, compared to 0.016 fatalities for motorists...
However, this statistic is flawed to the point that it can be ignored, for the simple reason it would take a cyclist riding slightly under 385 miles per week, 50 years to ride one million miles..
However, this statistic is flawed to the point that it can be ignored, for the simple reason it would take a cyclist riding slightly under 385 miles per week, 50 years to ride one million miles..
Using his reasoning, since it would also take a motorist riding slightly under 385 miles per week (a figure that I think is a a bit higher than the average motorist actually drives in the US, but it's really close -- so perhaps he's found the actual figure?) 50 years to ride one million miles, then we can ignore all the people who die while traveling in cars too?
Last edited by dougmc; 11-26-11 at 12:30 AM.
#24
Single-serving poster
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 5,098
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 2 Times
in
2 Posts
I'm sure it is even more dangerous for pedestrians under those conditions dougmc.
Maybe your wife thinks you're a garbage cyclist and can't tell you.
Maybe your wife thinks you're a garbage cyclist and can't tell you.
#25
Senior Member
I'm sure those numbers would be far different if most bike riders didn't pay attention, rode through intersections without thinking, and weren't lit in the dark. If we got rid of all those who do that, the numbers would look a whole lot better than they already do.
Last edited by closetbiker; 11-26-11 at 09:25 AM.