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...ok, not entirely bike related, but kind of sort of is...(advocacy related maybe!?) I was flipping channels the other day and saw an ad for a television show on one of the networks on the impending oil crisis but now can't find when it will air... Anyone see when it was and what channel it was coming on? Thanks!
:)
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what impending oil crisis? They just opened that damn big ass pipe didn't they?
btw I don't care, I say bring on the day when it allll runs out
what impending oil crisis? They just opened that damn big ass pipe didn't they?
btw I don't care, I say bring on the day when it allll runs out
Well, I *sort of* agree with you... I look forward to the decrease of traffic on the roads and the return of the smaller self supporting communities that will have to redevelop from it (one day), but not to the other things, such as increasing costs of everything else! :) I think it's good that a television show will air about this subject...might make people think a little more, might convert a few more bicycle commuters, etc.. nah, what am I thinking, it'll never happen in our fat lazy culture... :)
In any case, anyone seen the commercial I was talking about and happen to remember the time and station it was on (in the U.S., btw). Thanks!
:)
Yeah they just opened up some bigg *** pipe all right, saw a write-up about it on www.urbansurvival.com it's called the Caspian thing, I call it a prime terrorism target.
I saw something about the Made For TV Special movie about the crisis of gas going to $5 a gallon, it's going to show in June sometime. I think I saw something about it on www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.com but you can probably Google it.
If this all comes true, all Wally's will be able to sell as they die off is bikes!
There is a crazy multi show doc on PBS, I believe, called Big Oil, about oil and all the societal ills, war, pollution and environmental damage getting it to the pump.
OK don 't click on ANY links I give, instead, sneak up on 'em by using Google to search for, for instance, "life after the oil crash" since every time I post a link, it seems to go to some hacker kid's bedroom instead of the site I'm talking about.
mmmKay?
NZ.. YOu live in a more survivable country , where life can still be community dependent...Locals have not lost their ability to perform basic functions for themselves..I suspect..Not so for the suburban/exurban US...It will not be fun...Employees can't get to work...Company profits shrink as energy costs sky rocket...I hope it will not be another 1929...and no mass transit to fill in the void.
and we were told when the oil shocks hit us 30 years ago...The oil dependency was a National security crisis..Did anyone listen...Solutions were offered, programs devised and abandoned when we were told, the oil companies would take care of us and develop the new technologies...
well, they didn't ...a 30 year lead wasted , on a national security crisis...better luck in New Zealand....well, in the movies- Australia/New Zealand were last to survive a nuclear world.......Hope you do better, than I fear we will...
To answer your question Darren, it's called Oil Storm, showing on FX... Sunday June 5th, 8 o'clock Eastern.
http://www.fxnetworks.com/shows/originals/oilstorm/main.html
Oil crisis? Lol. If you're talking about a artificially created oil crisis then yeah.
Oil crisis? Lol. If you're talking about a artificially created oil crisis then yeah.
Oil is finite so eventually there will be an oil "crisis" although perhaps we will be fortunate enough to have replaced oil with something either renewable or at least long lasting by then.
But we will run out of oil that is economically feasible to pump.
We really need some distructive technology to come along and make oil use for transportation a thing of the past. As it looks now the planets thirst for oil will double in the next 10 years. The longer we are dependant on oil the more in a hole we will go.
http://neweconomist.blogs.com/new_economist/2005/04/weo_oil_prices.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/petroleu.html#Gross
how much is a gal of gas in other contries:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb1108.html
Good oil stats:
http://www.iags.org/costofoil.html
see pdfs
In the SF Bay area, Channel 5 aired a segment on their 11pm news about "peak oil". They featured a prominent oil geologist who predicted the peak world production date as Thanksgiving day 2005.
Most of what I've read places the predicted peak somewhere in this decade, maybe already past, maybe not. Most also say we won't know for sure until it has already happened.
To my mind, running out of oil per se is not the issue, since it will be gradual, it is the indirect effects of rising demand coupled with decreasing supply (or at least diminishing rate of increase), which will cause economic and political instability. As with any other crisis, it will be a gradual effect, and will most negatively impact the poor and otherwise politically unrepresented. Those with connections and money will, as usual, find a way to get by. They're already jockeying for it.
To answer your question Darren, it's called Oil Storm, showing on FX...
That oughta be good. Is Alec Baldwinn in it?
Most of what I've read places the predicted peak somewhere in this decade, maybe already past, maybe not. Most also say we won't know for sure until it has already happened.
To my mind, running out of oil per se is not the issue, since it will be gradual, it is the indirect effects of rising demand coupled with decreasing supply (or at least diminishing rate of increase), which will cause economic and political instability. As with any other crisis, it will be a gradual effect, and will most negatively impact the poor and otherwise politically unrepresented. Those with connections and money will, as usual, find a way to get by. They're already jockeying for it.
define gradual..............
One of Bush/Cheney LLC's energy advisors has been saying for quite sometime that Ghawar is likely to die a quick death and that the Saudi's are lying about how much they have left, its already in decline, world oil production has very very little spare capacity at this time, and wont be able to keep up with increasing demand, in other words, oil production has peaked right now.Ghawar has about a 30-40% water cut right now and thats increasing, and history has shown that this method when done to the extreme means the field will crash very hard.From here on out it declines, or at best, the ROI drops drastically as the oil companies spend megabucks going after the heavier crude and hard to get to places,which they just started doing in earnest, as well as merging and deflating their overinflated reserve #'s.The age of OIL is in its end game.
Looking at world consumption increases of more than 5% annually,and production declines of that or more, from here on out, it will mean military force in order to have a steady supply.........hmm, thats already being done.
I think gasoline here in the US hits $3/gallon average by december, drops a bit briefly after that, then starts a definite climb towards some very scary numbers after that.Once the reality of the situation hits the mainstream the REAL price of oil will come into play, Im guessing $100-$150/barrel, maybe more.In a few years it could easily hit $300/barrel.
many jump to the conclusion that transportation is the hardest issue, nope, not even close........its food, for every calorie you eat, it costs 10-20calories worth of petroleum in the US
not the end of the world by any means, want to see what the end result looks like, look at Cuba, theyve dealt with it quite well, their fuel suply got cut off abruptly when the USSR fell apart
what is a crime...we had every chance to be ready for this shortage...The US will get through it , but our stubborness to wean our way to alternatives and addiction to our single passenger auto and lack of alternative transportation will make the transition the most painful in the industrial world...couple that to our housing patterns.
I might look forward to the oil crisis' effects..Maybe bike lanes will become what had been a whole lane used solely by autos..?
to those who say it is manufactured...and not real....
I say it is real but manipulated.
To answer your question Darren, it's called Oil Storm, showing on FX... Sunday June 5th, 8 o'clock Eastern.
http://www.fxnetworks.com/shows/originals/oilstorm/main.html
Thanks Stacey for that info, that's the one I was looking for...much appreciated! :)
...and thanks everyone else for the interesting discussion!
:)
...ok, not entirely bike related, but kind of sort of is...(advocacy related maybe!?) I was flipping channels the other day and saw an ad for a television show on one of the networks on the impending oil crisis but now can't find when it will air... Anyone see when it was and what channel it was coming on? Thanks!:)
hey if you like to read try, "Out of Gas:The End of the Age of Oil by David Goodstein.
It's a short pithy read 128 pages you can get it from your local library. At heart, Goodstein is a
Caltech professor who explains why the days of oil are done and gone. And the consequences for the
the West. Interesting read.
hey if you like to read try, "Out of Gas:The End of the Age of Oil by David Goodstein.
It's a short pithy read 128 pages you can get it from your local library. At heart, Goodstein is a
Caltech professor who explains why the days of oil are done and gone. And the consequences for the
the West. Interesting read.
Hi Marge, I saw that Goodstein had a book out on the subject. That guy's great, I used to use a lot of his Mechanical Universe tapes in the college physics classes I taught, and his text on condensed matter physics is great. He's a good author and teacher! Thanks for the reminder about his new book.
:)
Gas is artificially priced low in the US anyway, oil will not stop, but cheap oil will.
And yes it will be gradual, although since the "non-negotiable" American lifestyle seems to require declaring war on most of the world, we could easily end up with WWII type gas rationing. There was certainly no shortage of oil at that time, and the US had tons, but there was a war against a good portion of the other world powers on at that time, too.
I'll have to look up that Goodstein book, I've heard about Mechanical Universe and that it's great.
I think the show may be related to an article from about a month ago called "Peak Oil"
The theory goes that the world is currently pulling oil at the maximum rate and is being consumed as fast as it comes out of the ground.. If the oil production slows and comsumption remains the same or grows slightly there will be huge jumps in oil prices..
3.00 - 4.00 per gallon would be the norm for the United States under this scenario..
Thanks Stacey for that info, that's the one I was looking for...much appreciated! :)
...and thanks everyone else for the interesting discussion!
:)
You're welcome Darren. It looks like more of the "Let's :eek: scare :eek: the :eek: crap :eek: outta :eek: the :eek: masses" hyperbole. But it looks like fun as well
That oughta be good. Is Alec Baldwinn in it?
Alec who? ;)
My prediction is that sometime in the future the blue Northeast states will split off from the rest of the USA (well maybe not COMPLETETLY, more like a nation-state-within-a-nation somewhat like Singapore or something like that) and will embrace public transportation, cycling, alternative energy, anti-sprawl etc. while the red staters from the Biblebelt will fight wars for oil on thier own and will continue to deny peak oil and global warming is happening.
The foundation for this senario is already happening since the Bush administration is closing many military bases primarily in the Northeast and is rewarding the South with more base jobs. I think there will be a massive migration of people moving to these different areas of the country much like the black migration from the South in the mid-thirties to the early seventies.
Smurfy...Much of the solar power is generated/or will be- in the south and west...
from what I am told...Nevadians and Washtonians so hate Californians- they might push us out to sea....not sure about Arizonians...
I understand...California plates..Don't speed in Washington State? well, we already have lots of solar panels...
personally..If it is all true..I think it jealousy.
My prediction is that sometime in the future the blue Northeast states will split off from the rest of the USA (well maybe not COMPLETETLY, more like a nation-state-within-a-nation somewhat like Singapore or something like that) and will embrace public transportation, cycling, alternative energy, anti-sprawl etc. while the red staters from the Biblebelt will fight wars for oil on thier own and will continue to deny peak oil and global warming is happening.
The foundation for this senario is already happening since the Bush administration is closing many military bases primarily in the Northeast and is rewarding the South with more base jobs. I think there will be a massive migration of people moving to these different areas of the country much like the black migration from the South in the mid-thirties to the early seventies.
hmm weird i live in oregon and there gonan close a airforce base up here... and we are a blue state also very intresting...
My prediction is that sometime in the future the blue Northeast states will split off from the rest of the USA (well maybe not COMPLETETLY, more like a nation-state-within-a-nation somewhat like Singapore or something like that) and will embrace public transportation, cycling, alternative energy, anti-sprawl etc. while the red staters from the Biblebelt will fight wars for oil on thier own and will continue to deny peak oil and global warming is happening.
The foundation for this senario is already happening since the Bush administration is closing many military bases primarily in the Northeast and is rewarding the South with more base jobs. I think there will be a massive migration of people moving to these different areas of the country much like the black migration from the South in the mid-thirties to the early seventies.
So, as oil reserves dwindle, the Northeast "Blue" states are going to form some sort of liberal, tree-hugging, green paradise? You're being sarcastic, right? Because if this isn't sarcasm, you must be toking on some powerful chronic.
Have you ever been to New York or New Jersey? Do you really believe that the people around here are actually going to take up bike riding on a large scale. BLAHAHAHAAHHAAHAHAHAHAHAH.....GASP, CHOKE..BLAHAHAHAHAHAHA. STOP IT YOUR KILLING ME, STOP, MY STOMACH HURTS. Oh damn, I think I wet my shorts.
Didn't the so-called bicycle boom of the 1970s roughly coincide with the oil crises? I have never heard any discussion of a link, but I'd be interested to hear some thoughts.
Do you think the show will cover the rioting and increases in crime as a result of a sudden drop in oil availability?
Smurfy's been reading Ecotopia or www.iSteve.com take your pick.....
I definately think the 70s bicycle boom was linked to the oil crisis, and someone in the group I was riding with today (some older, experienced bikers in the group) said bikes seem to be taking off now.
All we need is one disruption in the oil supply and Lance winning this Tour and bike boom here we come!
Do you think the show will cover the rioting and increases in crime as a result of a sudden drop in oil availability?
I also think that the show will show the problem being solved between the 7th and 8th commercial break. Probably by some plucky high schoolers, just in time to save the Memorial Day weekend.
Probably by some plucky high schoolers, just in time to save the Memorial Day weekend.
And they'll all drive their new cars down to the scenic overlook and have a picnic.
Do you think the show will cover the rioting and increases in crime as a result of a sudden drop in oil availability?
Are you referring to the invasions of sovereign oil bearing nations? That kind of crime and rioting? Who cares about that? Who cares about brown skinned poor people that don't speak our language, I mean really!
My LBS says, since Lance won about number four..They can't assemble enough bikes fast enough..Couple that with a pending oil crisis....Better start hiring extra assemblers at Trek..they can be imported from Flint..
Cruentas..I do sort of recall a cultural divide amongst certain states...I was but a tyke...But, recall some campaign ad in some election...Seen snipets of those ads on C Span...Some one sawing off the New England states on some map, because they did not want them to be a part of the US...
Cruentas..I do sort of recall a cultural divide amongst certain states...I was but a tyke...But, recall some campaign ad in some election...Seen snipets of those ads on C Span...Some one sawing off the New England states on some map, because they did not want them to be a part of the US...
There very well may be a cultural divide between the Northeastern states and the rest of the USA, what's that got to do with bicycles? To suggest that a majority of Northeastern state residents are somehow more open to living a "green" lifestyle is laughable. I know, I've lived in the Northeast all my life. Everyday I see people who run their holes about global warming, pollution, diversity, etc, and then they climb into monster SUVs, that could run over a Russian T-54 tank, to drive back to their all-White gated communities. :rolleyes:
BTW, I was kid back in the seventies and I remember both oil shocks of '74 and '79. The '74 oil crisis did contribute in some small way to the '70s bike boom, but it was not the major cause. The '70s bike boom was well under way by the time we were hit with the '74 oil embargo. By 1980 the boom was over, despite the gasoline shortages of 1979. The average American has a sense of entitlement when it comes to automobiles, and will not ride a bicycle for transportation.
As for the current bike boom, if this can be defined as a boom, it's not sustainable. If people are buying bikes as a result of Armstrong's Tour wins, it's only a fad fueled by poseurs -- fads, by definition, are unsustainable. Almost everyone I know owns at least one bike, only about 5% actually ride those bikes regularly. Most of the bikes that are being purchased, because folks want to look like Lance, will only be ridden a few times, and then hung up in the garage or basement. This is good for bike enthusiasts because in a couple of years there will be a glut of high quality, low mileage, used bikes for sale on eBay -- cheap.
I think the cultural divide is mostly BS made up by the media shills and reinforced by those in politics, the election demographics and exit polls dont jive with the election outcome, draw your own conclusions there.I dont care where you live, as the energy situation tightens we will all be affected, and it wont be transportation thats the biggest issue, it will be food.Maybe it will help spark a "bike" boom, but I wouldnt count on it,fads or not.
While no part of the US is exactly well positioned for high oil prices, the Northeast still has a higher percentage of folks living in higher density communities. I grew up in CA and moved to Boston for grad school. It was a revelation to be in a walkable place with an effective public transit system. Literally took years before I shook the habit of driving everywhere (what was funny is that I stopped driving everywhere very quickly - but idea of the car as the transport of "first resort" nagged at me for much longer).
So if Prof. Deffeyes (http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html) and the others are correct (and as a Princeton Geo alum I'd bet on him, but I'm biased :-) I think it's correct to say that the NE part of the US is better positioned for the future than say, Arizona or Florida or California is.
Regardless, *no where* in the US is well positioned compared to the rest of the industrialized world. Our way of living has been optimized for cheap oil and I don't see how we've hedged that bet *at all*. If oil goes to $100/barrel and stays there any time soon I worry that we're *all* toast as far as competitiveness goes.
Regardless, *no where* in the US is well positioned compared to the rest of the industrialized world. Our way of living has been optimized for cheap oil and I don't see how we've hedged that bet *at all*. If oil goes to $100/barrel and stays there any time soon I worry that we're *all* toast as far as competitiveness goes.
You may be toast, but I have a plan. If oil goes to $100/barrel, and SHTF, I'm going to shoot and eat the neighbors. :)
Just a thought, but if oil prices spike, doesn't business become less international and more localized?
If transportation costs skyrocket, at some point the importation of Asian goods will lose its appeal.
[QUOTE=cruentus]There very well may be a cultural divide between the Northeastern states and the rest of the USA, what's that got to do with bicycles?
I was making no editorial comment about anything other than responding to Cuentas reply to another's comment...
But, w/o any polling to verify my feelings...I do think certain terrains bolster certain consumer preferences...I just suspect you see more Hummer's in less urban areas and more sub-compacts in cities where one has to compete for space in which to park cars..and in urban areas where parking/gas etc is more expensive...
in those areas, I suspect one sees , smaller more efficient cars, and therefor maybe an inclination to look into alternative transportation over the commute on traffic chokes freeways.. Certainly support for public transit furthers support for alternative transportation..eg. bicycles..
I dont care where you live, as the energy situation tightens we will all be affected, and it wont be transportation thats the biggest issue, it will be food.
Thats what I'm thinking too. One of the reasons I don't mind living in a city of 70k that is surrounded for miles and miles on every side by farm land. I'm pretty sure it'll be an easier adjustment here than in places where you can ride all day and never see a piece of land capable of being farmed. After all, people farmed for a long time without the internal combustion engine. It may be hard work, but there's no reason it can't be done again.
Marge, thanks for the tip on the book. I just requested it through interlibrary loan. Seems we're getting a copy but it's still on order, and I'm not that patient. :D
I do think certain terrains bolster certain consumer preferences...I just suspect you see more Hummer's in less urban areas and more sub-compacts in cities where one has to compete for space in which to park cars..and in urban areas where parking/gas etc is more expensive...
in those areas, I suspect one sees , smaller more efficient cars, and therefor maybe an inclination to look into alternative transportation over the commute on traffic chokes freeways.. Certainly support for public transit furthers support for alternative transportation..eg. bicycles..
In my experience in New York City and in Miami, that is absolutely not true. I have no polls either but I found there are more SUV's per person in the NY metro area than in central New Hampshire and Maine. And there are way more Hummers in Miami than anywhere else I have ever seen. No snow, no mountains, I never saw a muddy one...
And I haven't really processed this but it seems the lack of usefulness of Public Trans fuels alt trans, but not the funding of, at least not here. The DOT seems hellbent on making biking difficult and driving as seamless as possible. i.e. bridge bikepath bumps vs car prioritized streets.
But, w/o any polling to verify my feelings...I do think certain terrains bolster certain consumer preferences...I just suspect you see more Hummer's in less urban areas and more sub-compacts in cities where one has to compete for space in which to park cars..and in urban areas where parking/gas etc is more expensive...
in those areas, I suspect one sees , smaller more efficient cars, and therefor maybe an inclination to look into alternative transportation over the commute on traffic chokes freeways.. Certainly support for public transit furthers support for alternative transportation..eg. bicycles..
Have you been to NYC recently??? NYC and the surrounding counties are PACKED with high-end luxury cars. Efficient cars? :rolleyes:
After all, people farmed for a long time without the internal combustion engine. It may be hard work, but there's no reason it can't be done again.
Ain't gonna happen anytime soon. Humans will eventually fight nuclear wars over oil rather than go back to farming.
Ain't gonna happen anytime soon. Humans will eventually fight nuclear wars over oil rather than go back to farming.
Prettymuch.Perspective in the media is a ghost, you rarely see it.For example, "terrorist" activities pose less of a threat to americans than being struck by lightning, yet the US spends more $$ on defense and the "war on terrorism" than the rest of the world combined !!The US has troops in 135 of 192 countries, more perspective.Fundamentally, although few have the guts to actually say it, "national security" is blanket coverage and an excuse to protect the US's unsustainable lifestyle and misallocation of resources even if it means destroying other countries, more than enough evidence throughout the world to support that despite the lack of media coverage here in the US, abroad its common knowledge.Its been going on for so long the CIA/FBI even has a term for when people from other countries strike back however they can, its called "blowback".
For every calorie you eat, it costs 10-20 calories in petroleum in the US.The US uses more energy per person than any other developed country.The US wastes more energy per person than most developed countries.The oil shocks of the 70's had two distinct reactions, the US had a temporary knee jerk reaction towards conservation, Europe took it seriously and continued conservation and planning to deal with the situation long after the US blew it off and returned to its wasteful ways.Countries have taken two paths, some have adopted planing and choice to weather the crisis whenit comes, others like the US have adopted the "last man standing" approach.I dont know about the rest of you folks, but are you as americans proud of that?Im not, as the world's "superpower" I expect better than that.
After all, people farmed for a long time without the internal combustion engine. It may be hard work, but there's no reason it can't be done again.
Are you volunteering? In 1900, farming was the most prevalent occupation in the US. With the advent of industrialization, people moved away from farming to work in factories because the conditions were so much better. Without machinery, producing enough food to feed the nation would probably take half of the population.
Are you volunteering? In 1900, farming was the most prevalent occupation in the US. With the advent of industrialization, people moved away from farming to work in factories because the conditions were so much better. Without machinery, producing enough food to feed the nation would probably take half of the population.
Take a look 90 miles off the coast of Florida, thats what we will be looking at in the future, their fuel got abruptly cutoff in the 90's when the USSR fell apart,theyve handled it quite well actually.Reality is what it is, you can only rape and abuse the planet for so long, sooner or later something has to give.Man is no better than animals, we will consume our way into famine just like them.
[QUOTE=nycm'er]In my experience in New York City and in Miami, that is absolutely not true. I have no polls either but I found there are more SUV's per person in the NY metro area than in central New Hampshire and Maine. And there are way more Hummers in Miami than anywhere else I have ever seen. No snow, no mountains, I never saw a muddy one...
Here in California, there seems to be sufficient support for bike trails so we have some..Hummers seems to be pretty much 'suburban.' but that is obviously income related..
Here while we have our share of SUV's...Honda Civics would certainly appear to be the biggest seller..
Take a look 90 miles off the coast of Florida, thats what we will be looking at in the future, their fuel got abruptly cutoff in the 90's when the USSR fell apart,theyve handled it quite well actually.Reality is what it is, you can only rape and abuse the planet for so long, sooner or later something has to give.Man is no better than animals, we will consume our way into famine just like them.
That's why so many Americans risk their lives to make the 90 mile crossing to Cuba. ;)
Prettymuch.Perspective in the media is a ghost, you rarely see it.For example, "terrorist" activities pose less of a threat to americans than being struck by lightning, yet the US spends more $$ on defense and the "war on terrorism" than the rest of the world combined !!The US has troops in 135 of 192 countries, more perspective.Fundamentally, although few have the guts to actually say it, "national security" is blanket coverage and an excuse to protect the US's unsustainable lifestyle and misallocation of resources even if it means destroying other countries, more than enough evidence throughout the world to support that despite the lack of media coverage here in the US, abroad its common knowledge.Its been going on for so long the CIA/FBI even has a term for when people from other countries strike back however they can, its called "blowback".
For every calorie you eat, it costs 10-20 calories in petroleum in the US.The US uses more energy per person than any other developed country.The US wastes more energy per person than most developed countries.The oil shocks of the 70's had two distinct reactions, the US had a temporary knee jerk reaction towards conservation, Europe took it seriously and continued conservation and planning to deal with the situation long after the US blew it off and returned to its wasteful ways.Countries have taken two paths, some have adopted planing and choice to weather the crisis whenit comes, others like the US have adopted the "last man standing" approach.I dont know about the rest of you folks, but are you as americans proud of that?Im not, as the world's "superpower" I expect better than that.
While I think you have something there, the problem is I believe those other countries tolerate being dictated to much more than we here in the US, especially on social issues. I also think that more Americans look at a much smaller picture than people might tend to do in other countries, on an individual level. This is most likely why we haven't taken preventive steps.(My uninformed opinion?)
Something just popped up on the Tellie. It said Sunday at 8:00PM. I'm watching FX.
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