Professional Cycling For the Fans - Stage 10: Grenoble - Courchevel

Stage 10: Grenoble - Courchevel, 192.5 km

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First mountain stage.

Real challenge, excitement starts here.

If previous tours are any indication, real battle begins in the later days of the montain stages where some contenders start showing some fatigue(uneducated opinion).

If previous tours are any indication, real battle begins in the later days of the montain stages where some contenders start showing some fatigue(uneducated opinion).

The first two serious mountain stages last year were the most important.
It depends on the route. Depends on the weather and the tactics... on paper, the two Pyrennes mountaintop finishes look to be the most difficult stages. But the contenders will be going all out this day to put major time gaps in if they can.

The first two serious mountain stages last year were the most important.
It depends on the route. Depends on the weather and the tactics... on paper, the two Pyrennes mountaintop finishes look to be the most difficult stages. But the contenders will be going all out this day to put major time gaps in if they can.

Armstrong/Postal have had a history of making big gains in the first mountain stage (even when the follow stage seemed to be THE place for a battle). The Discovery team will likely do the same (and has, in a manner, done so a little bit in the TTs -- what if that first ITT had gone on for 55 km instead of 19?). They like to take as many contenders out of contention as quickly as possible to reduce the nervousness in the bunch and the efforts of too many teams trying to get their riders in the front (they cannot all be there). Postal criticized the Tour a year or too ago for leaving all of the TTs and big mountains so late so that there would be more suspense.

Well team Disco rode really well on stage 9 and now then have a rest day...so I wouldn't be surprised if this is the best stage of the tour...GC Contenders are still close to Lance, ready to make big attacks, and Lance getting ready to attack them! Should be an aweomse stage!

How much will the rest day be a factor? Sometimes they can have a big impact.

My guess is that Armstrong will attack with 10-14km to go... most likely countering an attack from one of his GC rivals. Don't know what will happen after that though... the steepness goes down for the final 10km.

Vino takes it.

Vino takes it.

I would love to see this as well.
It's interesting how our like/dislike our current participantes relates directly to their aggressiveness and not their overall chances of winning. Vino is aggressive and makes it very interesting. I got the feeling two stages ago that attacks from the one-two combo of Vino and Kloden put Lance into a little bit of panic. T-mobile should throw Ulrich into that mix and make Disco work HARD to cover on the next two stages. A tired team may make Lance vulnerable enough to make this a better tour. I personally would like to see Lance have to work harder. He's calculating and successful because so, but he lacks the bravado and heart that are characteristics of so many other TdF champions. Yawn.

Mark

This climb might favor Ullrich... well I doubt he has it in him. But it has a long gradual, not so steep ascent for much of it. He did very well on it in 1997 didn't he?

1997 seems forever ago doesn't it? I think Tuesday will be an amazing stage. I think we can look forward to attacks from Vino, Ullrich, Hincapie and Armstrong...we'll have to see what Basso does..

1997 seems forever ago doesn't it? I think Tuesday will be an amazing stage. I think we can look forward to attacks from Vino, Ullrich, Hincapie and Armstrong...we'll have to see what Basso does..


Basso will surprise us all when the time is right. He's been purposefully quiet. If his form is anything like what we saw in Italy, he's gonna give Lance a run.

Mark

Basso will surprise us all when the time is right. He's been purposefully quiet. If his form is anything like what we saw in Italy, he's gonna give Lance a run.

Mark

Almost every time a rider shows great form in the Giro, it disapears for the TDF
Which is why I have no clue about Basso... I was suprised to find him being backed as their GC guy. Will he drop way off? Or win the Tour?

I was suprised to find him being backed as their GC guy.

ehh... ????... Tour 2004...??? He matched LA pedal to pedal in the mtns last year and he is probably the best climber in CSC... Besides i dont think they have any other GC contendors... Julich isnt up for it, he said so himself... None of the others come close...

ehh... ????... Tour 2004...??? He matched LA pedal to pedal in the mtns last year and he is probably the best climber in CSC... Besides i dont think they have any other GC contendors... Julich isnt up for it, he said so himself... None of the others come close...

Well I mean I wonder if he will actually deliver this time. He might be really worn from the Giro.
Last year he did not race the Giro. He trained specifically for the Tour. This year he said he was planning for the Giro and not the Tour... and not only did he have that shift in training time, but also RODE the Giro.

Like I said, big name riders usually come off of a great Giro with a disapointing Tour.

Well I mean I wonder if he will actually deliver this time. He might be really worn from the Giro.
Last year he did not race the Giro. He trained specifically for the Tour. This year he said he was planning for the Giro and not the Tour... and not only did he have that shift in training time, but also RODE the Giro.

Like I said, big name riders usually come off of a great Giro with a disapointing Tour.

Fair point... Simoni definetely comes to my mind... We wont know about Basso till about 10 days from now will we ;)... On top during the Giro he also had the stomach bug etc... I have not seen any signs of faltering yet but at the same time he hasnt had to respond to much.. If anything the attention the past week and now at least till tuesday has been on other CSC teammates which should take a little bit of pressure off the team and give them some 'good form'...

Well for competition sake let's hope Basso is more like Pantani and less like Simoni.

1997 seems forever ago doesn't it? I think Tuesday will be an amazing stage. I think we can look forward to attacks from Vino, Ullrich, Hincapie and Armstrong...we'll have to see what Basso does..
...

Hincapie?

...

Hincapie?

I actually just put his name there to see if anyone was even reading.
Seriously though, I can see other Disco riders attacking with Lance (more likely Ace, Rubeira or Salvodelli)

why?

apparently George has been climbing much better this year. Johan said his role in the mountains should be much more significant than last year, although i don't expect him to be a basso or mayo like you jokingly implied :) Glad someone else picked up on it.

A fella riding in his last Tour would like to win a couple of memorable stages. Two stages that would be tempting targets for Lance are THIS stage, finishing with a tough climb, and the concluding individual time trial.

It is rare for Lance to go "all out" to win a stage, and NOT succeed. So, he must chose between "taking it easy", and just following Ullrich, Vinokourov and Basso through this stage. Or, going for the "win". If Lance decides to go for the win, this will be one of the most interesting days of the 2005 Tour.

Basso
Armstrong
Kloden

Unless Rasmussen eats his Wheaties again in which case all bets are off.

Thing's heating up. A whole day of waiting is killing me. But that's a part of the fun, right?

My prediction and also my wish, Lance will make a move.

The last couple of days have provided some very amusing reading.

For the most part there are some good posts about "maybe this is what's going on" and "this could happen" but there are a few who make posts like they are the authorities on the TdF...more like..."this IS what's going on" or "if so and so does this, Lance won't be able to keep up". These are the posts that really crack me up.

You guys (and you know who you are) must realize that you're completely full of crap...right? There is so much going on in the tour right now that none of us can really know what's going to happen or what affect any strategy will have. There are just too many factors involved.

Do any of you have a clue about what it takes to attack a pro peloton or someone of the level of Lance, Vino, Jan, etc??? I'm cracking up at these ideas that Kloden can attack first, then Vino, then Jan. It's one thing when they're all "climbing" a 4% grade in their big rings but once they hit the real mountain stages it takes a lot of form and fitness to be able to do something special.

I'm also curious why there are so many Lance haters out there. It's one thing to have another favorite but a few of you guys seem to be in the "anyone but Lance" camp. Geez, did the guy bang your mom or something?

Anyway, I hope everyone continues to enjoy the tour. So far there have been some great moments. I'd really like to see Vino & Basso make this a close and exciting one...it would also be great if Jan got control of the space between his ears. If he could do that, I think his fitness would take care of the rest.

Cheers.
-CJ

It's either Lance will make a move or have to respond to the contenders' attacks.
T-Mobile has the advantage, with three cards to play: Ulrich, Vino and Kloden. T-Mobile will be pushing the pace, any of the three (Vino or Kloden most likely) will make a move and put some time on Lance. This will force Discovery to chase and tire by covering the moves. Basso is the card for CSC, another one to watch out for.
It won't be easy for Lance this week. We'll see the strongest survive.
Corsaire

ok. i'll take the other possibility. discovery sets tempo on the last climb reeling in an early breakaway. in the process they shed everyone but basso and vino. armstrong attacks and drops the pair leaving them to fight for the crumbs. check mate.

ok. i'll take the other possibility. discovery sets tempo on the last climb reeling in an early breakaway. in the process they shed everyone but basso and vino. armstrong attacks and drops the pair leaving them to fight for the crumbs. check mate.

The problem I see with this possibility (likely to happen also, not saying the contrary) is that the other teams (CSC, T-Mobile) know already this tactic, pretty much the same cookie cutter pattern by the ex-Postals over the last few years, so the contender teams will try to break that mold of Lance and push him to do mistakes, don't forget this year, Lance has several contenders to watch out for: Vino, Kloden (who I think was faking it all along that he was in no forma at all) and Basso, and of course, never discount Ulrich. We'll see what develops, it'll be very interesting!

Corsaire
:)

The problem I see with this possibility (likely to happen also, not saying the contrary) is that the other teams (CSC, T-Mobile) know already this tactic, pretty much the same cookie cutter pattern by the ex-Postals over the last few years, so the contender teams will try to break that mold of Lance and push him to do mistakes,

And how exactly do you suppose they do that? Teams have tried for six years to break that USPS/Discovery tactic. Are you suggesting they shove him off the road? :eek:

The thing is, when Armstrong's teamates are pushing the pace like that, it's near impossible to 'push Armstrong to do mistakes'. IF his teamates are pushing the pace like that ;)

It's either Lance will make a move or have to respond to the contenders' attacks.
T-Mobile has the advantage, with three cards to play: Ulrich, Vino and Kloden. T-Mobile will be pushing the pace, any of the three (Vino or Kloden most likely) will make a move and put some time on Lance. This will force Discovery to chase and tire by covering the moves. Basso is the card for CSC, another one to watch out for.
It won't be easy for Lance this week. We'll see the strongest survive.
Corsaire

CSC and CA, as well as Gerolsteiner and Phonak are also going to have to help chase - unless Basso, Moreau, Leipheimer and Landis are content to let the yellow jersey slip away just so Lance doesn't get it. If Discovery blows up on the climb, will these four guys, plus two TMO guys (Ullrich and Vino or Kloeden, take your pick) just sit on Lance's wheel?

And how exactly do you suppose they do that? Teams have tried for six years to break that USPS/Discovery tactic. Are you suggesting they shove him off the road? :eek:

The thing is, when Armstrong's teamates are pushing the pace like that, it's near impossible to 'push Armstrong to do mistakes'. IF his teamates are pushing the pace like that ;)

No need to shove him of the road, LOL! T-Mobile just need to attack, attack and attack, 'cause don't forget they have THREE contenders in that team: Kloden, Vino and Jan; if you've followed the TDF the last 6 years (I have all the DVDs since 1999, watched them over and over again), you'll notice that Lance doesn't take well being attack over and over again, he buckles under this type of pressure, his style is more waiting for the last few miles to give his final attack blow with the help of his teammates. Basso is another tough card in the mountains too. I'd like to see Mayo and Heras do something too, they might steal stage finish glories.
Let's see who outsmarts who in this cat and mouse game in this critcal week, can't wait, it'll be HOT baby!

Corsaire

So, for those of you saying this is the stage for Lance to attack...arent some of you the same guys posting that he just gave up the Yellow so he didnt have to protect it? Why would he then go out and attack the very next race day and get it back? Wouldnt he be far better off marking the few he considers contenders then taking the yellow in the pyrenese?

no not really. to chase down every nobody would have worn the team down. now those nobodys will naturally be off the back on the big climbs and he can concern himself with the real contenders.

A "Yellow Jersey" looks brighter when it comes with some "stage" wins. I'd bet Lance has already targeting the final TT for a stage win. And, I'd also bet he wants to win at least one of the tougher mountain stages (Stages 10, 11, 14, 15).

So, a workable strategy is to get a "feel" for how each of these four stages is going, and when it feels "right", go for the win. On the other three stages, it is probably enough to just stay close to Basso, Vinokourov, and Basso. Of course, if some "surprise" rider starts winning in the mountains, staying with the "favorites" may not be enough.

The last couple of days have provided some very amusing reading.

For the most part there are some good posts about "maybe this is what's going on" and "this could happen" but there are a few who make posts like they are the authorities on the TdF...more like..."this IS what's going on" or "if so and so does this, Lance won't be able to keep up". These are the posts that really crack me up.
Since you're calling people out, care to name names and start a good, old-fashioned flamewar? :fight:

No need to shove him of the road, LOL! T-Mobile just need to attack, attack and attack, 'cause don't forget they have THREE contenders in that team: Kloden, Vino and Jan; if you've followed the TDF the last 6 years (I have all the DVDs since 1999, watched them over and over again), you'll notice that Lance doesn't take well being attack over and over again, he buckles under this type of pressure, his style is more waiting for the last few miles to give his final attack blow with the help of his teammates.

You must have bootleg DVD’s because I don’t recall Lance ever “buckling” under pressure. Yeah, there was the 2000 Tour where Pantani went on the suicide attack and Lance bonked. That did Pantani a lot of good since he quickly abandoned :rolleyes: In 2003 on L’Alpe Duez, Lance was not on form and there were lots of attacks, but Lance still held it together by marking the most dangerous contenders.

I think you have it backwards; Lance doesn’t buckle under pressure, but attacks happen more frequently when he’s not at the top of his game. If he and the Discos are feeling fine, there will be no attacks by anyone who matters.

Am I missing some other moments where Lance “buckles” under pressure?

-murray

Yeah, it was in 2000, and not necessarily the stage where he bonked, but the one, incidentally, to Courchevel. Lance was in trouble (admittedly so by Lance himself in one of the books about him, yeah I've read it too), where he couldn't hang onto Pantani's wheel, he had to let him go because Marco's repetitive pulls, if you watch that part closely he conveniently places himself behind Heras and Botero's wheel, trying to keep a cool face, but you could see he was trying to hide his difficulty, even Phil, or was it Paul, who said: Lance felt this one or something of that sort. He might've realized it was not worth the effort to keep up with him either. Hey, Lance is human after all and he can buckle, like he did in 2003.
Don't get me wrong I like Lance, and if he's the best this year, I'd love to see him depart with panache.
I'm just being objective, not letting my emotions take either sides., it's not about hating Lance, he's such a cool guy. May the best win!

Corsaire



You must have bootleg DVD’s because I don’t recall Lance ever “buckling” under pressure. Yeah, there was the 2000 Tour where Pantani went on the suicide attack and Lance bonked. That did Pantani a lot of good since he quickly abandoned :rolleyes: In 2003 on L’Alpe Duez, Lance was not on form and there were lots of attacks, but Lance still held it together by marking the most dangerous contenders.

I think you have it backwards; Lance doesn’t buckle under pressure, but attacks happen more frequently when he’s not at the top of his game. If he and the Discos are feeling fine, there will be no attacks by anyone who matters.

Am I missing some other moments where Lance “buckles” under pressure?

-murray

I'm also curious why there are so many Lance haters out there. It's one thing to have another favorite but a few of you guys seem to be in the "anyone but Lance" camp. Geez, did the guy bang your mom or something?




LOL!

BTW, yeah, we're all full of crap. One of my favorite things to do is see how wrong NFL 'experts' are at picking the eventual contenders. The 99 Rams come to mind.

I can't even begin to predict what kind of tactics will unfold tomorrow. Any time a rider has tried to attack on an earlier climb it has been futile, but to wait for the final climb plays right into Armstrongs strengths.

Will T-Mobile try to ride Discovery into the ground on the first climb to isolate Armstrong and then attack him again? Or will we see the same ol' same ol' with Disco driving the pace on the first big climb to pare things down and then see if they want to attack on the final climb?

The only thing that is for certain is that tomorrow we will start to see who the contenders are and who the pretenders are. And the next day, though there is a downhill finish, we get our first two HC climbs . There will be a shake up in the GC now for sure.

This Fred's non-expert 2-cent prediction: no major changes among the top GC contenders, however, marginal riders will get shelled and the GC below maybe 8th place or so will fall back with increasing time gaps. I'm thinking no major GC contender will risk a major attack here; they need to save their legs for the next day, Stage 11, which has Col du Telegraphe and the Galibier. If there are attacks in Stage 10, I'm guessing it will be little headfakes and jabs like Vino did last Saturday. Major attack by a non-GC rider, going for a stage win, is possible -- if it's someone willing to go for a stage win but be wasted for Stage 11. Watch for Disco to do the Lance bus pace thing on Stage 10 to get riders softened up and fatigued to try to prevent major attacks on the Galibier.

What are the alternatives strategies anyway? I guess TMO could send Kloden out on an early break and make Discovery work hard all day, then let Vino or Jan attack early on the final climb and send the third man out if/when Lance is isolated.

Yes, this could blow up TMO a day early but hey, Disco will also be hurting. As others have mentioned, just following their lead hasn't worked well in previous years so somebody needs to do something different.

I'm no expert, but it is indeed fun to express ones opinions and compare to others...

I personally think Lance won't attack until he sees who the contenders are. Without the yellow jersey, Discovery will not be absolutely in charge during the first part of the stage and may not push the pace - at least until some other teams start pushing. When push comes to shove, I think Basso and Vino will emerge as the main contenders. In fact, I think they will be absolutely explosive when the time comes. And of course there may be some other dark horse climbers who have yet to show themselves. Kloden and Voigt will not keep up when the hills come. I also wonder if Rasmussen can recover from his win the other day and make some attacks in the mountains. Team Discovery will need to pull themselves together and prove to the peleton they are who everyone thinks they are - not like last Saturday. We have, of course, not heard much from the three climbers on the team and I look forward to seeing what they can do. I have thought all along that Ulrich doesn't have what it takes this year and he has done nothing so far to prove me wrong. At this point I'm giving Lance a 60-40 shot, which hasn't changed since the begining of the Tour.

Go Lance!

Kloden...will not keep up when the hills come.Kloden has been Ullrich's right hand man in the mountains for 5 yrears. What has happened to make you think he has suddenly lost his ability to climb with the best?

Disco may not have a jersey to defend, but they have a vested interest in a high pace. Remember, the higher the pace, the harder it is to create differences with an attack.

I think it will be VERY interesting tomorrow. Seeing as there "only" two "cat 1" (as opposed to HC) climbs, there's a good chance that all the favorites will be together at the bottom of the Courchevel climb. With time bonuses up for grabs, the last couple of K's should be insanity.

I was so very happy to read these comments from Riis:

Riis hinted at the team's strategy over the next two week. If Riis has his way, we are in for fireworks in the mountains. "If you want to beat Lance, if you want to win this Tour, you have to attack, not just follow," he said.

However, it doesn't look like CSC will defend the yellow jersey at all costs. The team's ebullient German rider jens Voigt currently holds the race lead but admits he's no climber. The plan is to hand over the jersey to a team-mate, but Voigt said the team does not feel pressured to hang on to it.

"Armstrong is the one who is here to win the Tour," he said. "He has to take responsibilities in the race. The pressure is on his shoulders not on ours.

"He gave the jersey away yesterday (Sunday) but we are not going to do his job."

from http://www.cyclingnews.com

You guys (and you know who you are) must realize that you're completely full of crap...right?

Lance, shouldn't you be resting? ;)

I was so very happy to read these comments from Riis:

Riis hinted at the team's strategy over the next two week. If Riis has his way, we are in for fireworks in the mountains. "If you want to beat Lance, if you want to win this Tour, you have to attack, not just follow," he said.

However, it doesn't look like CSC will defend the yellow jersey at all costs. The team's ebullient German rider jens Voigt currently holds the race lead but admits he's no climber. The plan is to hand over the jersey to a team-mate, but Voigt said the team does not feel pressured to hang on to it.

"Armstrong is the one who is here to win the Tour," he said. "He has to take responsibilities in the race. The pressure is on his shoulders not on ours.

"He gave the jersey away yesterday (Sunday) but we are not going to do his job."

from http://www.cyclingnews.com
Should be interesting...Would he go out on a breakaway ...again and maybe with Moreau..?? That would be a nice Deja Vu attack...

Kloden has been Ullrich's right hand man in the mountains for 5 yrears. What has happened to make you think he has suddenly lost his ability to climb with the best?

Ullrich will crack. Kloden will sputter. And the whole TMobile squad will implode. You'll see!

anyone know where you can get those OLN stage maps that include the category of each climb?

edit: nm, shoulda checked oln site first


http://www.olntv.com/tdf/img/profiles/profile10.gif

anyone kno what the green S means?

A few scattergun comments:

- Lance may want this one more than any other TdF he's raced. This will be the exclamation point on his career. I think he'd try to win it solo if he had to.

- I don't know the rules (or lack thereof) regarding teams working together, but I bet there is a huge amount of behind-the-scenes planning going on between everyone except the Discovery team. Attack by collusion!

- Lance makes his team-mates better - look at Landis last year. I predict some great stages for Hincapie and Popovych before the Tour is over. Lance will pull them up farther than they could possibly go on any other team.

- Ullrich peaked years ago - he is emotionally incapable of winning a Tour that includes LA.

- If Lance doesn't win, either Basso or Vinokourov will win! (Duh - pretty safe, there!)

OK- those are just my opinions based on my vast knowledge of racing (I've got at least a total of 30 days experience watching and listening to the announcers on OLN - doesn't that qualify me as an expert?)

I sure enjoy watching this race!

Dean

I do not anticipated an all out effort from the main contenders tomorrow. There's too many tough stages before the next rest day (Monday), and Saturday and Sunday stages will be something. I think Sunday will be the big day.
Unless Vino goes for a GC shake-up tomorrow, I see a one stage winner opportunist such as Moreau who has a real possibility to wear yellow tomorrow night and really wants to win a stage this year.
If Discovery is up to it they will counter Vino and set the tempo. Basso and Ulrich won't risk it yet, too early, they will leave Vino and Bobby J. try to break the Discovery train. Lance will only attack if the other main contenders are in real trouble. Moreau will be let go so that his team carries the peloton responsibilites until Saturday.