Professional Cycling - Stage 15: Lezat/Leze - Saint Lary Soulan

Stage 15: Lezat/Leze - Saint Lary Soulan 205.5 km

This stage looks easy enough.

Mckewen in sprint finish over Hushvord and O'Grady taking the green jersey for the first time.

Lance is not known for being a "sentimental" sort of guy. But, there are two stages that would make tempting targets for his memory book. Stage 15 is the last stage in Lance's career that ends with a climb. What better way to write into history his ability to win in the mountains? And, of course, he very much wants a win in the final time trial.

Sitting here on Thursday, looking at the "Top Five" riders in the GC, the "crystal ball" is a bit foggy as to who will be in the "Top Five" after Stage 15. But, applying "W.A.G. Analysis", my prediction for who makes it from Thursday to Sunday and remains on the top is:

THURSDAY NIGHT:

-Armstrong
-Rasmussen
-Moreau
-Basso
-Valverde

SUNDAY NIGHT:

-Armstrong
-Basso
-Botero
-Ullrich
-Leipheimer

My choice of Ullrich is just pure sentimentality on my part. To be in the "Top Five" on Sunday night, Ullrich will have to ride to win on both Saturday and Sunday. And, lately, Ullrich rides more like a guy who is riding for second place.

Other than Ullrich, my "Top Five" prediction is guaranteed to be at least 20% correct. Valverde was on my "Top Five" list...but then he up and quit the race Friday. But, Valverde will be on the podium in Paris in future years. He is the real deal.

This stage looks easy enough.

...especially since the course will be lined with crazed Basque fans wearing orange and cheering for anyone on Euskaltel. To bad Laiseka didn't make the team this year. He wins the mountains competition in the Tour de Suisse and isn't chosen? :( Oh well, Aitor wasn't chosen either; maybe they'll win the Vuelta. :)

Possibly Landaluze, Zubeldia, or, let's hope Mayo today.

Boring stage. Easy. Lance should ride it backards, on a Green Machine.

I got a nose bleed just looking at the map

Boring stage. Easy. Lance should ride it backards, on a Green Machine.

I had one of those as a kid.

:D

This stage looks easy enough.

Really, it's only 120 miles :D

let's hope Mayo today.
Mayo looks like he forgot how to climb... I sure hope he can pull a pheonix act...

I think this is the day for Telekom to attack... Vino... again??

[QUOTE=alanbikehouston]Lance is not known for being a "sentimental" sort of guy. QUOTE]

He may be when it comes to his former teammate Fabio Casartelli (Team Motorola), when he died on the decent of Col de Portet d’Aspet. I believe this will give Lance extra motivation to torture his opponents.


newswww.bbc.net.uk/sport2/hi/other_sports/cycling/3756775.stm (http://)

Is this the same stage?

I remember Lance said he felt like he was riding with the strength of two men and he felt no pain on that stage.

Is this the same stage?


I'm pretty sure it's the exact six climbs used in 2001, yes

I change my predictions... Botero attacks.. Vino tries to stick... Julick paces Basso who tries to attack at some point...

I've said this before, but i can't imagine a breakaway staying away on this grueling stage. I think Armstrong wins it.

Lance Lance Lance... blah blah blah... Lance Lance Lance...

Lance Lance Lance... blah blah blah... Lance Lance Lance...

Next year you can talk about someone else. ;)

Next year you can talk about someone else.

I guess....

I dont hate the guy... All the asskissing and proclamations are getting to be a bit too much ...

I guess....

I dont hate the guy... All the asskissing and proclamations are getting to be a bit too much ...


Isnt it all deserved though?

Hes a self made man from a broken home and very little money.
He has survived cancer that gave him only a 10% chance of living.
Climbed back on a bike and won the most grueling event in the world 6 and most likely 7 times in a row. Putting him above all else in TdF success.
To boot hes banging Cheryl Crow.

I mean if you can show me a ***** in the armor im all ears.

I'm as big a Lance fan as everyone else, but it does get old. I'd love to here more about the other riders, Popo, Landis, Levi, Horner, Basso....those are my favorites other than Lance. Dave Zabriskie and Tom Boonen as well but they dropped out. :(

Well one of the problems is that most of America doesnt really understand Bicycle competitions and they dont really see the glory in finishing 2nd or 3rd or even a surprise ride that puts someone in the top 10. So with the TdF and Lance its going to be ALL ABOUT Lance, with sproratic blurbs of Team Disco and jan Ullrich and Vino. Its the reason the US is watching. Im not casting judgement one way or the other, but its just the simple fact of it all. America is watching because of Lance. You would have to expect that the majority of comments and discussion will be about him.

Yes, completely understand what you're saying. Lance has put american cycling at the forefront but they should also talk about the other Americans as well. IMHO

Yes, completely understand what you're saying. Lance has put american cycling at the forefront but they should also talk about the other Americans as well. IMHO

Agreed. But the in the US its only press if your #1. Same thing happens in golf with Tiger Woods. He brings all the non-avid fans out to watch. When hes in contention ratings sky rocket. When hes off the leaderboard they plummet. Same thing happens to a magnitude of 10 with cycling and Lance because there are far fewer bike fans than golf fans. It sucks but we love what is considered an obscure sport in the USA and the only way its going to get coverage is if someone from the US is in major contention and most likely needing to be leading the whole damn thing. Thats our cake whether we like it or not, its what we have to eat.

I guess....

I dont hate the guy... All the asskissing and proclamations are getting to be a bit too much ...

Yeah it's a trend to go against trends.

I don't know why but there's always a tendency for people to hate anything and everything popular. Oh well.

Its not like the guy has changed all that much in 7 years, yaknow. I mean he comes back from cancer and hes everybodies golden child. Now 7 years later hes still the dominant rider he was but somehow its time to root against him because he's won too much I guess, or possibly percieved to easily??

Agreed. But the in the US its only press if your #1. Same thing happens in golf with Tiger Woods. He brings all the non-avid fans out to watch. When hes in contention ratings sky rocket. When hes off the leaderboard they plummet. Same thing happens to a magnitude of 10 with cycling and Lance because there are far fewer bike fans than golf fans. It sucks but we love what is considered an obscure sport in the USA and the only way its going to get coverage is if someone from the US is in major contention and most likely needing to be leading the whole damn thing. Thats our cake whether we like it or not, its what we have to eat.

Agree...

I guess....

I dont hate the guy... All the asskissing and proclamations are getting to be a bit too much ...

Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods, Ali, etc. . . . All heroes, and they all have loyal adorers and fanatical detractors. "Asskissing"? Nah, it's admiration for a unique and perhaps inspirational performance. It seems pretty obvious that those who dominate their sport are going to dominate the headlines - and they are going to alienate those who have a different sense of appreciation for what they do. This is THE TOUR, and right now, the manner in which Armstrong is handling the overall pressures of the event is the main story. The Stage wins are chapters in the story and they generate quite a bit of chatter, but the main story is still about one person. Were someone else winning, they would be the center of attention. There's got to be a "Lance Sux" discussion page somewhere where it is verboten to admire those at the top of their game (I think it's on the same board as the "Jeff Gordon Haters" discussion page.

We're going to talk about this unique event - get over it. My "asskissing" proclamation - Lance attacks on Stage 15.

Dean

1) It's only asskissing if you are doing it to the person for benefit. This just happens to be people making a prediction of what is going to happen, and then reliving it when it does happen.

2) I love when people say we should hear more "feel good" stories about the other Americans who are having "such a good tour"...which means fighting for 4-10th places, while they are *****ing about Ullrich and Basso being "happy with a podium finish" and not blowing themselves up to try to beat Lance.

Looks like I started a flamewar... Well I agree that LA is special.. The man acheived more than anyone and I like his personality and such... I also agree that part of my frustration is with the other GC contendors not doing S*it... Watching the same person dominate over and over is kinda boring, just like how F1 became old news till this year... Peace...

Is Al Trautwig the Joe Theismann of cycling commentary?

I guess....

I dont hate the guy... All the asskissing and proclamations are getting to be a bit too much ...

It certainly does, but he's leading. That's how it goes.

We could, instead, talk about Mayo and Botero and Heras being jokes in the mountains. And TTs, for that matter. But that's not really fun, b/c everyone wants them to do well, they just have no clue how to be TdF professionals... even after all these years. With the exception of Botero once every 7 or 8 days, these guys don't seem to even wake up on race day. I guess I'm so furious because I want a race, not an easy ride for Armstrong. I have no problem with him winning, he is the best after all, but I just want to see a competition. And only Rasmussen and, perhaps, Basso (although I don't think he's ready, still needs more TT improvement) are even capable of contemplating that goal. Very frustrating.

But that's not really fun, b/c everyone wants them to do well, they just have no clue how to be TdF professionals... even after all these years. With the exception of Botero once every 7 or 8 days, these guys don't seem to even wake up on race day. I guess I'm so furious because I want a race, not an easy ride for Armstrong. I have no problem with him winning, he is the best after all, but I just want to see a competition.

Maybe the race is just so incredibly difficult now? It's not like the past, where a climber could get much more rest on the flat days, for example. I'm sure many of these great riders prepare as good as they possibly can... just that they simply cannot handle it, or they get minor illness, or a crash or who knows what else. Many of these same riders go ahead to have great rides in other difficult, but not as difficult stage races.

The only top riders who finished on Saturday looking as if they still had gas in the tank were Lance and Basso. So, on Sunday, Lance will be riding to win. If Ullrich is as tired as he looks, Basso may be Lance's only remaining competition for the yellow jersey.

Sunday is likely to be a lot of fun for fans watching on TV, and a lot of pain for the guys out on the road.

just like how F1 became old news till this year...

You are absolutely correct - a good analogy. Not a flame war - just a minor skirmish. :)

Agreed. But the in the US its only press if your #1. Same thing happens in golf with Tiger Woods. He brings all the non-avid fans out to watch. When hes in contention ratings sky rocket. When hes off the leaderboard they plummet. Same thing happens to a magnitude of 10 with cycling and Lance because there are far fewer bike fans than golf fans. It sucks but we love what is considered an obscure sport in the USA and the only way its going to get coverage is if someone from the US is in major contention and most likely needing to be leading the whole damn thing. Thats our cake whether we like it or not, its what we have to eat.

We're going through the "Lance Bubble"...much like the real estate values across the country. At the end of the Tour, fascination with the sport of cycling will wane, but perhaps will bottom at a higher level than Before Armstrong. I live in San Francisco and the San Francisco Grand Prix is the result primarily of Armstrong and his Story. Practically all the non-cycling fans know Armstrong's story, but know little about the sport and its history. We went through this with LeMond, and I guess we'll have to wait for the next U.S. citizen to draw our interest back to cycling.

The only top riders who finished on Saturday looking as if they still had gas in the tank were Lance and Basso. So, on Sunday, Lance will be riding to win. If Ullrich is as tired as he looks, Basso may be Lance's only remaining competition for the yellow jersey.

Sunday is likely to be a lot of fun for fans watching on TV, and a lot of pain for the guys out on the road.

This is where we find out who wants to win. Even if it looks impossible, there must be a sincere attack on the Yellow Jersey by those who want to win in order to make this a race and not a parade. The attacks have to come early, and if Hincapie rides his tempo on the front of the peloton over the Col d'Mente without being attacked, bring out the marching band.

The only top riders who finished on Saturday looking as if they still had gas in the tank were Lance and Basso. So, on Sunday, Lance will be riding to win. If Ullrich is as tired as he looks, Basso may be Lance's only remaining competition for the yellow jersey.

Sunday is likely to be a lot of fun for fans watching on TV, and a lot of pain for the guys out on the road.

Isn't it interesting how looks can be deceiving. Floyd and Levi are continuing to display a persistent tenacity as they consolidate their positions in the race for the final podium spots. Levi certainly didn't seem to talk like he was "out of gas" in this diary entry:

As for me, it was hard but I was ok most of the time. Basso kept attacking on the climbs and I didn't want to accelerate too often so I just stayed at my pace and got back on when I could. I knew the climbs well so if I knew a flat spot was coming up I would be sure to get back on before we hit it. I lost Floyd's wheel just before the finish but I knew with about one kilometre to go it flattened out a little so I was sure to get back on by then. Sure I lost contact a few times, but it could have been much worse.

And Lance doesn't seem to think Jan is "out of gas" either as he indicated in these words to reporters:

Jan, — and he’s a tough dude — he kept following the attacks and he was immediately on the wheel. It wasn’t as if there were gaps and Jan had to come back, which is an indication that he’s very strong too.”

But then, LA doesn't see Jan from the same perspective as we do, does he? ;)

You are kidding about Levi and Landis right? You think they left some in the tank when they were getting dropped again by the people ahead of them in the standings?

Do you really think that Lance is going to come out and say that Jan sucks and he can't beat him? Didn't you see how he dodged the "who is your bigger competitor" question so that he would not give them something to use at motivation?

Do you really think that Levi would say on his blog that he is wasted and has no chance to move up in the standings?

Here (http://www.customgetaways.com/images/climb_profiles/Pla_dAdet.jpg) is a profile of the final climb.
Notice the 13.5% section... and kilometers 1-4 are averaged at %10.

I'm sorry for kissing Lances Ass by saying he would win today. I didn't realize that this was the forum where I was supposed to praise who I thought would come in 2nd or 3rd.

You kow all those annoying commercials by cable providers that make it sound like every time it rains taht sattelite TV goes out? Well, I've never had a problem with DirectTV, but it's pouring down rain here and with this "Queen" stage on, I keep losing my freaking signa!!!

I'm sorry for kissing Lances Ass by saying he would win today. I didn't realize that this was the forum where I was supposed to praise who I thought would come in 2nd or 3rd.

Don't worry about the jealous lance haters. Every sucessful person has to deal with people like that. The difference between true champions like Lance and pretenders, is that they prove them all wrong and make them look like fools.

It's great because Lance uses people like that to fuel his drive, which makes him a better rider/person in the end.

Don't worry about the jealous lance haters.

My favorite part is that they always assume that if you support Lance you must be a "newbie" and wouldn't be interested in the sport except for Lance. God forbid that someone who has been riding and competing for 15 years might have lost someone to cancer and taken a keen interest in this guys career.

Anyway, there's a race going on we should be watching and reacting to that.

As if on cue. . . Basso has a puncture.

You are kidding about Levi and Landis right? You think they left some in the tank when they were getting dropped again by the people ahead of them in the standings?

Do you really think that Lance is going to come out and say that Jan sucks and he can't beat him? Didn't you see how he dodged the "who is your bigger competitor" question so that he would not give them something to use at motivation?

Do you really think that Levi would say on his blog that he is wasted and has no chance to move up in the standings?

You obviously know the real story, right? Just like alanbikehouston knows that Zabrisikie and Boonen weren't really injured when they crashed...they were just faking their injuries to get out of the race, right? :rolleyes:

Levi's quotes weren't taken from a blog by the way; they were taken off a diary he is publishing for cyclingnews.com. If you read his diary daily, you'll see that Levi hasn't been blowing smoke, has been honest and frank, and has performed very consistently with what he has written.

But then, I'm sure you know better than he does what the truth is and what the conspiracies and duplicitous tactics are, right? :roflmao:

And no, I didn't see how LA dodged anything; but I'm sure you know what his inner motivations are.

I am suprised Hincapie is in that breakaway, and up 18 minutes..wow.

I am sure they will get caught, but you never know.

Hincapie and Pereiro are pawns in that break. They're high up the classification and are intended to draw the sting of CSC and T-Mobile.

Seems like disco is going to leave lance to fend for himself again.

Man do I miss beltran and echimov

Alot of riders are getting dropped now.

Yea, Discovery is dropping to the back, must be a very hot day.

That's ok, I like watching the race anyway when lance is alone, it makes it a lot more exciting watching Lance react to the attacks and watching everyone around him like a hawk, really shows what a great bike rider he is, makes it exciting, but I am sure lance dosen't like it at all..hehe

1)I love when people say we should hear more "feel good" stories about the other Americans who are having "such a good tour"...which means fighting for 4-10th places, while they are *****ing about Ullrich and Basso being "happy with a podium finish" and not blowing themselves up to try to beat Lance.

This is an attitude towards life and sport that reflects the "winning is the only thing frame of mind". Some of us care what impact on Floyd or Levi's career a top five finish will have, how they will benefit from it financially, how they will see some fruits for their hard work and sacrifice as pros, and how a top five finish in the toughest race in the world reflects on them as athletes and human beings.

Obviously you care only about who the winner is. Perhaps when you become more familiar with the players in the game and the complexities of the sport, you will start to appreciate what having a good tour means to these tough competitors as human beings, not just as winners or losers. Perhaps if you were to actually compete in a race and discover how difficult it is to win, you might have empathy for those who did not.