Professional Cycling For the Fans - Miscalculation by Discovery???? time will tell...

Discovery was obviously hurting from Saturday's stage when Vino picked up a few seconds on LA. I think T-Mobile missed a big chance to tag-team LA, as both Vino and Jan were in the front group and Jan could have tag-teamed LA along with Vino. But, the big man was passive again....

Did Discovery give up too much time on Sunday???? Now CSC - with several strong climbers - can ride defense in the mountains and force Discovery to attack.

We may have a race on our hands....

Discovery was obviously hurting from Saturday's stage when Vino picked up a few seconds on LA. I think T-Mobile missed a big chance to tag-team LA, as both Vino and Jan were in the front group and Jan could have tag-teamed LA along with Vino. But, the big man was passive again....

Did Discovery give up too much time on Sunday???? Now CSC - with several strong climbers - can ride defense in the mountains and force Discovery to attack.

We may have a race on our hands....

Forcing Discovery to attack wont work, you want to beat them you have to attack constantly, and hope other teams join in and do the same.Discovery does have its weaknesses, that showed the other day when Armstrong was by himself, he "admitted" he didnt feel quite 100% but even so, he couldnt quite match some of the accelerations either.Unfortunately, the road grade was only 4%, when it gets alot steeper there wont be as many guys around to defend against or attack Discovery.I have my doubts Ullrich will do anything, he rarely does, I have a feeling he cant, he just doesnt have it in him,Vinokourov on the otherhand, he will attack, and if Kloden shows more of what he did the other day, we might actually have a race to watch.If CSC and at least one other team is willing to let it all hang out and take the chance of burning up some riders in this first bout of the mountains, they have a chance at beating Discovery, if not, it will be just another TDF with Discovery dictating the pace and tactics.La despite what many think isnt superman, you make him ride hard at every successive climb and he will crack just like anyone else, problem is you have to get thru that team of his first.Break his team, then chip away at LA himself.I think if CSC and anotehr team do this with reckless abandon LA will have a bad bad time of it, but the odds of this happening are slim, too many conservative DS's that are willing to play the attrition "wait and see game".

I think CSC's team is just as strong as Discovery, as proven by the TTT. I think individually, LA is stronger than anybody on CSC. But, I would rather defend and follow wheels then have to take 2 + minutes out of somebody.

This is how Lemond won his last tour when Chiaputti (sp) was up by 10 minutes and went on the attack in the mountains, only to be caught and lose 5 minutes to LeMond in the final climb, then lose more time in the next stages and TT.

Now LA has to attack and will have 5 guys on his wheel ready to jump him should he falter...

It seems as if Discovery is and has always been better at changing their gameplan as race situations develop. Other teams seem to stick to their plan no matter what happens out there. Now, americans always get slammed for not being immersed in the 'cycling culture' and maybe that helps them in going against convensional wisdom. Would Ullrich be so passive if he rode for a team that was more aggressive? He doesn't go against the team director's plan, right?
I just think that Lance and his strong personality forces his team director to be more aggressive. Lance is not just a drone turning a crank out there. He is probably a more vocal leader and demands aggressive riding.

I think CSC's team is just as strong as Discovery, as proven by the TTT.

I would draw a different conclusion. I would conclude that CSC is (almost) just as strong as Discovery in team time trialing. The logic does not follow that they are as strong an overall team. There are those unfortunate hills looming. If they hang with discovery on the cat 1 hills, then I will accept your premise. Tomorrow will give us a good view of who and what teams are strong.

Tomorrow will give us a good view of who and what teams are strong.

That it will...

And CSC has 4 riders in the top 10 and Discovery 2....

http://www.letour.fr/2005/TDF/LIVE/us/900/classement/ITG.html

Now I love Jens Voigt and I am so happy that he is in yellow. But he will not be in yellow by the end of Wednesday (If not Tuesday.) He's too big to compete in the alpine stages. I know that wearing yellow can lift people to amazing feats, but he won't hold onto it for very long. I also don't think that CSC will want to defend the jersey for Voigt for too long unless they are giving up on Basso for the GC. They'll want to be able to support him.

I have this gut feeling that discovery is doing on a team scale
what lance did to Jan and co. when he faltered, looked weak and
then blasted past jan (and gave him "the look").
Playing possum on a team scale?
I can't believe that Beltran, Rubiera, Savoldelli et al were all
dropped on cat 3 and 4 climbs.
As for yesterday, I see this as a tactical move. Let CSC do the
work defending until the real climbs start.
Everyone looks at these 2 stages and thinks discovery doesn't
have it this year, that they, and lance in particular, are ripe for
the kill.
Then the train (blueandgrey?) pulls out and begins dropping
riders like a bad habit.

Marty

I have this gut feeling that discovery is doing on a team scale
what lance did to Jan and co. when he faltered, looked weak and
then blasted past jan (and gave him "the look").
Playing possum on a team scale?
I can't believe that Beltran, Rubiera, Savoldelli et al were all
dropped on cat 3 and 4 climbs.
As for yesterday, I see this as a tactical move. Let CSC do the
work defending until the real climbs start.
Everyone looks at these 2 stages and thinks discovery doesn't
have it this year, that they, and lance in particular, are ripe for
the kill.
Then the train (blueandgrey?) pulls out and begins dropping
riders like a bad habit.

Marty

I really don't believe it was part of their strategy, but I believe that the subsequent team meeting was a bit of a wake-up call to the troops. They executed perfectly the next day (yesterday).

I have this gut feeling that discovery is doing on a team scale
what lance did to Jan and co. when he faltered, looked weak and
then blasted past jan (and gave him "the look").
Playing possum on a team scale?
I can't believe that Beltran, Rubiera, Savoldelli et al were all
dropped on cat 3 and 4 climbs.
As for yesterday, I see this as a tactical move. Let CSC do the
work defending until the real climbs start.
Everyone looks at these 2 stages and thinks discovery doesn't
have it this year, that they, and lance in particular, are ripe for
the kill.
Then the train (blueandgrey?) pulls out and begins dropping
riders like a bad habit.

Marty

I'll be honest, I thought this too when it initially happened. It seemed that there was a lot of attacking that led to very little gain for anyone. A lot of energy burned for nothing. I mean Vino attacked 3 or 4 times, right? But with the rest day so soon after, I don't know that it makes sense to have isolated him that way intentionally. I guess only time will tell.

I'll be honest, I thought this too when it initially happened. It seemed that there was a lot of attacking that led to very little gain for anyone. A lot of energy burned for nothing. I mean Vino attacked 3 or 4 times, right? But with the rest day so soon after, I don't know that it makes sense to have isolated him that way intentionally. I guess only time will tell.

There is no way that they would have isolated him intentionally. They are expert tacticians, and that would not have been terribly bright.

Let me say this.

The pace on the flat stages was unbelievably high. There were lots of tired domestiques in the field before they hit the climbs. Discovery has benifited (as has T-Mobile) by the sprinter's teams doing a lot of chasing before this weekend's stages.

Yesterday, Discovery rode at the front, but not hard so what did they prove? That they can noodle along and let 3 guys go up the road and loose the jersey? Discovery was resting themselves for tomorow's stage. They did not prove anything yesterday because they did not do anything. The other teams were content to noodle along behind Discovery.

So tomorrow will be the first real test. Everybody will be rested. I think it will be a good stage.

I got that feeling yesterday too, that Discovery as a team might be playing possum. I mean, they looked so dominant in the TTT, and now they can't respond to mountain attacks? Either they burned themselves out in the TTT (unlikely), or there is an element of tactical ploy going on.

Now I love Jens Voigt and I am so happy that he is in yellow. But he will not be in yellow by the end of Wednesday (If not Tuesday.) He's too big to compete in the alpine stages.

I am pretty sure that Jens Voigt weighs less than Armstrong. If Jens can't hang in the mountains, it is not because of his size.

I got that feeling yesterday too, that Discovery as a team might be playing possum. I mean, they looked so dominant in the TTT, and now they can't respond to mountain attacks? Either they burned themselves out in the TTT (unlikely), or there is an element of tactical ploy going on.

They did precisely what they planned to do. They planned to give up the yellow jersey for a stage or so. They planned to control the peloton from the front. They did not plan to chase down any breakaways by people who were not in contention (at least as they saw it at the time) for the yellow jersey in Paris. Hopefully, they are underestimated by teams in contention as much as some of the denizens of this forum underestimate them.

Cut and pasted from the TDF site:

TEAM CSC
28 - VOIGT Jens (GER)
Born in 17/09/1971 à Grevesmühlen (Allemagne) (GER)
Height : 1.92 m
Weight : 77 kg

DISCOVERY CHANNEL TEAM
1 - ARMSTRONG Lance (USA)
Born in 18/09/1971 à Dallas (USA)
Height : 1.77 m
Weight : 75 kg

Voigt is tall and skinny

denizens of this forum

I resemble that remark.........

Everyone is overlooking the fact that Ivan Basso is a highly skilled climber. If he is feeling good throughout the mountain stages he will challenge Armstrong at every turn. This is all part of Riis' plan. I expect to see Basso in the Maillot Jaune by Thursday.

On T-Mobile's website, Jan explained that it was his job to "guard" Armstrong and let Kloden attack to form a three-pronged threat.

"Naturally, the team and its management were very satisfied afterwards. According to team captain Jan Ullrich, "Andreas raced superbly today. We put our tactics into practice. My job was to stay with Lance and to guard him. Andreas tried and immediately broke away. I am glad for him. It´s fun, we´re in the mountains at last.""

http://www.t-mobile-team.com/cms/tmoteam/en/tourdefrance/templateId=renderInternalPage/yearID=2005/monthID=6/eventID=59638/stageID=59292/factID=64164/id=61018.html

I am pretty sure that Jens Voigt weighs less than Armstrong. If Jens can't hang in the mountains, it is not because of his size.

The fact that a rider is light does not a climber make. He is just not a climber of the caliber of Lance - AAMOF, not even close. Basso is another story, and could be a contender.

They did precisely what they planned to do. They planned to give up the yellow jersey for a stage or so. They planned to control the peloton from the front. They did not plan to chase down any breakaways by people who were not in contention (at least as they saw it at the time) for the yellow jersey in Paris. Hopefully, they are underestimated by teams in contention as much as some of the denizens of this forum underestimate them.

Moreau is the designated team leader for CA, a former 5th place finisher in this race, won the Dauphine, and is a pretty good climber and tt'r.
http://www.trap-friis.dk/cykling/france.Moreau-C.htm

Rasmussen has been groomed for stage racing for some time now and is the co-leader of Rabobank with Menchov.

Voight is an ultra hard man in the peloton with victories in climbing competitions in Vuelta Paiz, a pretty tough race. I think that letting these three get away was pretty self assured on Discovery's part.

These guys, especially Moreau, have been in contention since the race started. The problem on this forum is that no one here knows anything about them because they only know about Basso, Ulrich, and LA. But Moreau is no Voeckler, Simon, or Kivilev. It may prove very difficult to unseat him from the perch he's been given. We'll see about Rasmussen. If I were a good climber like he is, I'd have to be carried off the course before I'd lose the yellow in the mountains. He now has the opportunity of a lifetime.

And the Yellow Jersey does change people.

And the Yellow Jersey does change people.

Which of course is a good point - look what yellow did to Voeckler last year. There were times that he dug deep to places he didn't even know existed due to his motivation to defend the yellow jersey.

Discovery is strong.. We havent even seen their pure climbers at the front but for yesterday, setting a tempo pace that discouraged attacks but did not burn them at the same time... That was quite a nice team showing...

What is really interesting is how are the other teams going to attack.. The day when Lance was isolated upfront, Jan and Vino were with him but neither was working for the other and they didnt have any team mates to support them... CSC had a mini posse with Sastre, Julich and Basso up there...

I am pretty sure that CSC will let Voight defend the Mellow Johnny by himself... I would be very surprised if the team worked to keep Voight up front... As for Vino, I am still holding my breath for a fascinating attack..

All of this bodes for an interesting few stages..

Discovery was obviously hurting from Saturday's stage

No. I guess they were hurting during the stage, but how did they show to be 'obviously hurting' on stage 9?


when Vino picked up a few seconds on LA. I think T-Mobile missed a big chance to tag-team LA, as both Vino and Jan were in the front group and Jan could have tag-teamed LA along with Vino. But, the big man was passive again....

That climb was nothing compared to what they will face. Big chance to tag team? They tried that. It was an easy climb. There is no way a marked man like Vino could have gapped the field and stayed ahead.


Did Discovery give up too much time on Sunday???? Now CSC - with several strong climbers - can ride defense in the mountains and force Discovery to attack.

That doesn't make any sense. Who did they lose time to? Voigt? ... who cares about Voigt? He says himself that he will lose the jersey on Tuesday. They didn't lose time to anyone that matters.

I have this gut feeling that discovery is doing on a team scale
what lance did to Jan and co. when he faltered, looked weak and
then blasted past jan (and gave him "the look").
Playing possum on a team scale?
I can't believe that Beltran, Rubiera, Savoldelli et al were all
dropped on cat 3 and 4 climbs.
As for yesterday, I see this as a tactical move. Let CSC do the
work defending until the real climbs start.
Everyone looks at these 2 stages and thinks discovery doesn't
have it this year, that they, and lance in particular, are ripe for
the kill.
Then the train (blueandgrey?) pulls out and begins dropping
riders like a bad habit.

Marty

I have to agree with Marty. I think this was in the strategy and they are just playing it. Adding some excitement to his last tour.

I don't get the "OMG!! Teh Disco team is collapsing!!!!111one" stuff. They had a bad day or (I don't believe this) they played 'possum. BFD. Teams have bad days. It was also a very, very weird stage, with the relatively gentle gradient and high speed. They clearly were not prepared for it, IMO. Does anybody honestly think they aren't prepared for high mountain stages? Nonsense.

What I also don't get is the inanity of the "blahblah attack Lance blahblahblah" nonsense. Guess what? EVERYBODY wants to win. Once the Tour hits the Alps, an attack by a contender is an attack for victory, against all other contenders, not an attack against Lance and only Lance. If, say, Basso attacks, do you think Lance is the only one who will want to follow the attack? Didn't think so. Ullrich, Vino, etc will all be hauling a55 to get on his wheel (or another contender's wheel, should he attack). I predict general mayhem on the slopes. :)

Anyhow, yes, Lance is clearly the man to beat more than others, but there are way too many good riders well positioned for him to be the only one worreid about an attack.

Everything is right on schedule so far for Discovery and Lance. Two minutes to Voigt is no big deal. Ullrich or Vino maybe, but not Voigt. And if my memory is any any good Lance has been much further back at one and a half weeks into some of his other six victories.

SS

one thing that is being forgotten here is the 4 riders CSC has in the top 10.

That's a lot of options, when you have your work horse in yellow, you climber waiting in the wings and 2 other excellent riders wiating around to help. Things look good for CSC if they don't pull a "Disco Disappear-o" a la Stage 7 after all the hard work is done.

Eki is missed. Lots of hard work being done by the others in the flats is hurting them on the climbs. Interesting to see how the legs will feel after shouldering Eki's load.

Eki is missed. Lots of hard work being done by the others in the flats is hurting them on the climbs. Interesting to see how the legs will feel after shouldering Eki's load.


Excellent point.

Personally,
T-Mob & CSC or any other contending team shouldn't consume themselves with Lance...
They should just hustle... the Tour is not about Lance, but about the Alps... the strategy of mountain climbing & descending is GO GO GO.
If Lance decides he wants a piece, so be it... why should 1 man intimidate you so badly, that you'd wait on his move? Screw that, just bust up those mountains and see who's the real man there... Most pros probably have some untapped skill/resources they don't know about until they are chugging [Voeckler]....

Bicycle racing is not Chess + Nascar... it has its own doctorines and strategies that I'm slowly learning... and if it's anything... "Just Go" works fine for me... forget about who's behind or in front - your focus gets cut... hammer, hammer, hammer until Champs.

STOP WITH THE NASCAR COMPARISONS ALREADY!!!!

Ok, here is one... of CSC's 4 riders in the top 10, 1 has this years engine, one is running a Busch engine, one is running a restrictor plate engine and one has this years engine with alot of miles on it....

The only GC threat out of CSC is Basso...Jullich just does not have it.

I am not convinced that TMobile with 3 leaders is a good thing either, I know on the first climb of the tour they were happy to have Kloden attack, Vino feint and Ullrich suck wheel...but come the last few stages before the TT and get back to me when they are within a minute of each other and the DS says, Ullrich today is your day, Vino block the pack while Kloden comes back to get some water for Jan...

The point of the matter is they have 4 guys that are threatening. Bobby has said he is an uber-domestique. Fine. but he's still up there and can suck wheel like Ullrich.

Voigt is a mean, nasty bike rider. He isn't a climber, but Voeckler wasn't either. Yellow makes you do funny things.

And if Voigt is holding the yellow, able somehow to dig into that suitcase of courage, answer the call, ride in a spot of bother and any other Paul Sherwin quote you can come up with, WHILE pulling Basso up the mountains it will only put more and more strain on other teams.

CSC doesn't have to go out and blow themselves up defending. Let a few of the climbers that are half a dozen minutes down go and then camp out with the pack.

VOIGT is not threatening. Read Jan Ullrichs diary today, listen to Bjarne Riis.

Voeckler held it for a few days but was not even close to holding it at the end. I believe he even fell so far as to lose his hold on the White Jersey.

p.s. We should go riding sometime. I have never ridden with another Zack before....

Everything is right on schedule so far for Discovery and Lance. Two minutes to Voigt is no big deal. Ullrich or Vino maybe, but not Voigt. And if my memory is any any good Lance has been much further back at one and a half weeks into some of his other six victories.

SS

I don't think Discovery made a mistake. But thinking back to the big break (timewise) of a few years ago One has to ask what if some of the guys in Sundays break perform as far above expectations as a couple of guys in that break did. (Very doubtful, the break a few years ago had more unknows where the chance for misestimation is greater). But there are a couple of guys now who can with just one more very good day have lots of people (not just Discovery) worried for a while.

i'm doing a 4-5 hour Z3 ride bricked with a 10 mile run on Saturday. PM me.

Cool, I'll pace your run leg!









Of course, I will be on my bike at the time. :D

Moreau is the designated team leader for CA, a former 5th place finisher in this race, won the Dauphine, and is a pretty good climber and tt'r.
http://www.trap-friis.dk/cykling/france.Moreau-C.htm

Rasmussen has been groomed for stage racing for some time now and is the co-leader of Rabobank with Menchov.

Voight is an ultra hard man in the peloton with victories in climbing competitions in Vuelta Paiz, a pretty tough race. I think that letting these three get away was pretty self assured on Discovery's part.

These guys, especially Moreau, have been in contention since the race started. The problem on this forum is that no one here knows anything about them because they only know about Basso, Ulrich, and LA. But Moreau is no Voeckler, Simon, or Kivilev. It may prove very difficult to unseat him from the perch he's been given. We'll see about Rasmussen. If I were a good climber like he is, I'd have to be carried off the course before I'd lose the yellow in the mountains. He now has the opportunity of a lifetime.

And the Yellow Jersey does change people.

Moreau is the mistake if there was one. He could contend. I think we will see CA riding at the front for the next few stages. Moreau will try to hold LAs wheel and hope that Voigt falls off the back, giving him the yellow assuming that Rasmussen does not attack again. If Rasmussen goes, I think the resposiblity falls to CSC to chase, not for yellow jersey but because of Bassos weekness. T-Mobile and Discovery have to believe they can make big time back on Rasmussen who lost 3 minutes in stage 1. Basso weakness is TT, therefore they have to pull him in, but a big break by him will lead to a chase by all contender teams. As a historic note, Moreau finished 12th last year at 24 minutes back and Rasmussen finished 14th 27 seconds back last year. Voigt finished 35th just over an hour back. I think we will see Moreau in the yellow jersey this week. And that might be good or bad for Discovery, since I think CA will do work, but he also represents a real treat.

When people are dismissive of a non-team leader's TT times, or a loss of time on a stage, they often forget that the rider was not always going all out. Case in point: Miguel Indurain 1990 TDF- 12 + minutes back overall, 3rd in the TT (working for Delgado).

When people are dismissive of a non-team leader's TT times, or a loss of time on a stage, they often forget that the rider was not always going all out. Case in point: Miguel Indurain 1990 TDF- 12 + minutes back overall, 3rd in the TT (working for Delgado).

Yeah, in my opinion USPS made that mistake in 2001. When a domestique suddenly gets their big chance, they may show a big performance increase.

Which is why some of these 'secondaries' can be dangerous... because you can't let them get in a huge break. And chasing them can burn a team out.

He has done it again

This thread has shown how folks take ONE stage of the Tour waaay too seriously. All of the contenders are going to have some good days, some bad days, and some average days. Now, if Basso got sick tomorrow, and lost eight minutes to Lance, well, THAT sort of bad day is serious. But, the "lose a minute" bad days are gonna happen to the best teams and the best riders. Just not as often as to the not-so-good riders.

alan,

Yesterday wasn't just a "lose a minute" bad day for alot of riders,
it was game over. Heras 12 minutes down. Mayo 27 minutes down.
and it just continues with lower time gaps.

marty

alan,

Yesterday wasn't just a "lose a minute" bad day for alot of riders,
it was game over. Heras 12 minutes down. Mayo 27 minutes down.
and it just continues with lower time gaps.

marty

I don't recall anyone seriously thinking that Heras and Mayo were ever IN the game. Lance is keeping his eyes on Basso and Ullrich. They have proven that when they are "on form" they can stay with Lance day after day in the mountains. Vinokourov and Kloden are great one day, and mediocre the next...wild cards.

So, Lance has been expecting a three man "game"...Lance, Ullrich, and Basso. But, Valverde seems to be saying "What do you mean, "rider of the future"...what's wrong with right NOW?"