Professional Cycling - When will Basso or Ullrich make their moves?

Day after day these guys cruise along in the Peloton or the yellow jersey group. Ullrich might be waiting for the next time trial to gain time on Armstrong, though based on the last TT, that seems unlikely. Basso is a good climber, so if he's going to do it, he'll have to do it in the mountains. What are these guys waiting for? Next year?

I wonder the same thing. I'm a BIG fan of Ulrich and was hoping that this year he would show his skills. He must be good, as Armstrong, Carmichael and others seem to think he is one of their main threats. If he is not, is Armstrong wrong to worry about him?

probably...
After Saturday we will know who is going to win the TdF, We will only know 2nd and 3rd after Sunday, and maybe the ITT.

Lance is the Favorite for the ITT, but I have to think that he is the favorite to win either 14, 15 or both.. Will he win a mountain stage this year?

He got pipped by Valverde, and Got passed by 3 or 4 guys trying to win the bunch sprint Yesterday, so he will need to shed everyone as he gets near the summit.


Even though he can put huge time on Rasmussen, I don't think he will let him go, and none of the other GC hopefulls look capable of cracking Lance, let alone keeping up with him. A few opportunists will try and get away early, and hope they can hold. Sometimes you get a guy who can and does. I think Horner will try and get in the early break again.

Der Kiazer doesn't seem to have it this year. Basso is either in sleath mode, or spent too much in the Giro. I hope its the former

I think Ullrich is totally shaken, with the crashes before and during this Tour. I think if T-Mobile was smart, they'd rally around Vino. Would Ullrich's ego would let him do that?

Basso may be just biding his time. The rest of CSC has been having a phenomenal Tour so far (sucks that Zabriskie abandoned, but other than that), it'd be nice to see some drama in the GC. Don't forget that Basso is a decent ITT rider. He's no Jan or Lance, but for a climber, he's purty good.

Rasmussen has got to be the feel-good story so far, and he has enough KOM points to just hang out and work on a podium spot, which is tremendous.

It's on this Stage (A3 Domain) , I think, where Lance will strike his mighty blow (mountain top finish). He'll resort to he same tactic, using his teammates on a fast, crushing tempo to put the last "nail in the coffin" (Azevedo, Rubiera, Salvodelli & Popovich will pace this one), hoping this will pretty much "assasinate", at least the most important threats to the GC. There are still room for surprises though, nothing is written on stone yet, those who could surprise in the end by hanging on with Lance could be: Rasmussen (climbing strong this year) Basso (his chance to finally pounce), Valverde (fresh meat and motivated),Vino & Kloden(maybe), or Mancebo ("constant" is his middle name). Ulrich, hmmm, a very remote possiblity, doubt it.

Corsaire



probably...
After Saturday we will know who is going to win the TdF, We will only know 2nd and 3rd after Sunday, and maybe the ITT.

Lance is the Favorite for the ITT, but I have to think that he is the favorite to win either 14, 15 or both.. Will he win a mountain stage this year?

He got pipped by Valverde, and Got passed by 3 or 4 guys trying to win the bunch sprint Yesterday, so he will need to shed everyone as he gets near the summit.


Even though he can put huge time on Rasmussen, I don't think he will let him go, and none of the other GC hopefulls look capable of cracking Lance, let alone keeping up with him. A few opportunists will try and get away early, and hope they can hold. Sometimes you get a guy who can and does. I think Horner will try and get in the early break again.

They both seem to hover around, waiting for Lance to catch the flu. But, if they want to beat Lance, Saturday and Sunday are ideal opportunities. These are the sort of brutal stages where the strongest rider can put a lot of minutes into a tired rider.

Of course, if Basso or Ullrich go "all out" this week-end, and they fail, they could easily free-fall out of the top ten. However, Ullrich is getting too old to be cautious. He has proven time and again that he can get to the podium. But, unless he aspires to becoming another Poulidor "the eternal second", Ullich must roll the dice, and ride to win this week-end. Ullrich has only one last chance to win the Tour head to head against Lance. Jan ought to turn to Lance on Saturday morning and say "Let's have a bike race..."

alanbikehouston seems to have the most accurate view of the race so far.

They both look absolutely stuffed. Neither will challenge.

Give it to Lance now.

I have to believe that the top contenders would attack...if they could. I think day one in the Alps pretty much showed that they could barely keep up, much less attack. You have to be able to keep up in order to be able to attack. Ullrich or Basso might go into a stage planning to attack, but the reality is that on the big climbs, Discovery turns up the speed to the point where it's all they can do just to keep up. Maybe if Discovery leaves Lance alone again, these guys might take advantage. But if Lance has a significant number of teammates around, I can't see them being able to do much.

Vinokourov and Kloden seem to be a little different. They've both had moments of successful attacks and Vinokourov at least will pounce on an opportunity. I could see Moreau mounting an attack as well. I don't think Ullrich has the legs or the lungs and Basso has fallen away from the Peloton several times on the climbs.

Anyway, I expect we'll see some good drama in the Pyrenees and I look forward to it!

Vino's crack on corchavel (sp?) was his undoing. I was listening to Lance on Sirius podcast and he said the day before the rest day that rest days are terrible. His point was that the body kind of shuts down and thinks the race is over. He also said that some of the more memorable cracks of great riders have come the day after a rest day. The Disco team rode 4 hours or so at a high intensity to 'keep it up'. It was very interesting to see his words come true on corchavel for Vino and most of the the other contenders.

I thought it also very interesting that in Vino's great break away and stage win he only gained 1:30. . .that has to mentally frustrate him given the effort.

Well if JU or Basso draw blanks, I hope Rasmussen goes all out on Sunday... It looks as if he can drop everybody in the peoleton.. Vino might have sufficient time to recover with yesterday being not too stressful and today being a flat stage... I wonder if he can pull off something... Oh well...

FORGET THE PHYSICAL its all MENTAL.

Ullrich is a beaten man. He doesnt think he can win the tour with Lance in it so he is content to ride for a podium finish. As for Basso he is definitely pulling the invisible man routine and appears to be riding for a podium finish as well but not the win.

I cant remember during the last 6 years any contender who has put time into Lance at this stage of the TdF. Lance has either been equal to or greater than every challenge that has come his way. Mentally these guys dont think they can beat Lance. I think only Vino had the mental capacity to beat Lance and he lost WAAAYY to much time in stage 10. Lance does not only beat them physically he beats them mentally. They are all beaten men, to afraid to attack Lance for fear that they will become his next victim of a counter attack. So they wait and hope for Lance to falter under some remarkable circumstance and then hope they can capitalize. It hasnt worked for 6 years and it wont work this year.

Rasmussen is abit of a wild card as he is so close. His ITT is way back of Lance so during this weekend he will have to put in a herculian effort and smoke Lance for at least 4-5 minutes. Not likely, but really the only person I see stopping Lance is Rassmussen. Jan and Basso are playing for podium finishes.

Rasmussen is not going to pick up 7-8 minute advantage over Armstrong in the mountains. This is what he needs to do at a minimum to win.

Vino needs to pickup a 6:57 advantage over Armstrong to win.

CSC's and the Pink guys' best chance at stopping Armstrong from winning the TDF would be for both teams to rally behind Botero who only needs to pickup a 6:48 advantage over Armstrong in the Mountains to have a shot at winning. If Vino was within 2 minutes he may have had a shot but he don't.

:roflmao:

They both look absolutely stuffed. Neither will challenge.

Give it to Lance now.

Well..let's wait until the 24th, but neither Ullrich or Basso looks up to it so far.

As far as Rasmussen, let's not forget that Armstrong and the crew let him gain 6 minutes on a breakaway is the only reason he's even close. It may have been a slight miscalculation on their part, but when have they ever done that?

As far as Basso or Ullrich making their move, someone better make a move or you can count on all of America (except us die-hards of course) losing interest after this year. I know they'll go away anyway, but who wants to watch a bunch of chumps who can't even hold Armstrong's wheel race against each other next year? (Not my thoughts, my feeling on what people will be thinking.)

We need some drama to hold the interest of the casual observers who have been watching just because of Lance, or the American support of this sport will drop heavily after the 24th. Bye Bye coverage.

Rasmussen is not going to pick up 7-8 minute advantage over Armstrong in the mountains. This is what he needs to do at a minimum to win.

Vino needs to pickup a 6:57 advantage over Armstrong to win.

CSC's and the Pink guys' best chance at stopping Armstrong from winning the TDF would be for both teams to rally behind Botero who only needs to pickup a 6:48 advantage over Armstrong in the Mountains to have a shot at winning. If Vino was within 2 minutes he may have had a shot but he don't.

:roflmao:

I can't imagine that CSC or T-Mobile would back Botero just so that he could (doubtfully) beat Lance. What does that do for them? Or their sponsors? At least if Basso or Jan/ Kloden/ Vino lose to Lance, the've lost to a 6 time champ. Losing to Botero? And helping him beat you? Not sure I see any upside for them in that.

That's right.

Well, they are down to their last "48 Hours". If they don't have a lead on Lance by close of business Sunday, they ain't never gonna have a lead on Lance.

FORGET THE PHYSICAL its all MENTAL.

I have to disagree with this mentality. There is only so much you can will your body to do. There are limits. If Lance's limits are significantly higher than anyone else's, there is no amount of "wanting it" that can overpower raw physical capacity.

Riders can slow themselves down by giving in mentally. The chances of a pro who's worked and won his way up to doing grands tour is not likely to exhibit such deficiencies.

When they fail, it's not a reflection on their personality or competitive nature. They wouldn't be who they are without proving they have the mental toughness to match anyone at their level. They all "want it" equally.
When they fail, it's simply that their body is not up to the task.

Let us not forget what Beloki's accident in 2003 taught us: Form of your life to Abandonment is a patch of asphalt away. I'm not hoping that for anyone but fate does play a card from time to time.

they are all chasing 2cnd and 3rd on the podium. Ullrich will not make podium.

Today was their day, apparently.

I have to disagree with this mentality. There is only so much you can will your body to do. There are limits. If Lance's limits are significantly higher than anyone else's, there is no amount of "wanting it" that can overpower raw physical capacity.

Riders can slow themselves down by giving in mentally. The chances of a pro who's worked and won his way up to doing grands tour is not likely to exhibit such deficiencies.

When they fail, it's not a reflection on their personality or competitive nature. They wouldn't be who they are without proving they have the mental toughness to match anyone at their level. They all "want it" equally.
When they fail, it's simply that their body is not up to the task.

I really couldnt disagree more. Sure everybody has physical limits and its clear that on most days Lance's are higher than others...BUT...If you go into a ride not THINKING that you can win then you never get the courage to strike. You end up racing conservatively and never striking. Christ in 7 years of Jan and Lance racing how many attacks has big Jan put in. Hes one of the most talented riders ever and he NEVER challenges Lance. Why, because he steps to the plate mentally beaten and rides for the podium. If you think the mental isnt at least as important as the physical then ask yourself why every major succesfull athlete has mental coaches in thier arsenal of personnel. Tiger Woods, Michael Jordan, Michael Schumacher, Lance Armstrong. All of them exhibit strength through thier mental toughness. I have wrestled with the greatest wrestler ever on the planet, Dan Gable. He told me that the mind always quits before the body. To this day I have seen nothing in professional sports that would disuad me from this fact.

2 possibilities -
2006 (Basso)
Never (Ullrich).

I really couldnt disagree more. Sure everybody has physical limits and its clear that on most days Lance's are higher than others...BUT...If you go into a ride not THINKING that you can win then you never get the courage to strike. You end up racing conservatively and never striking. Christ in 7 years of Jan and Lance racing how many attacks has big Jan put in. Hes one of the most talented riders ever and he NEVER challenges Lance.

You really think that Ullrich got where he is and has the record he does by being soft in the head? You think anyone in the pro peloton got to where they are with as big a psychological impairment as this?

I don't. They're all top of their class in mental fortitude. They all have the psychological makeup of winners. Grands Tour separate the bodies.

You really think that Ullrich got where he is and has the record he does by being soft in the head? You think anyone in the pro peloton got to where they are with as big a psychological impairment as this?

I don't. They're all top of their class in mental fortitude. They all have the psychological makeup of winners. Grands Tour separate the bodies.

You actually think that all athletes have the same mental fortidude and it just comes down to physical execution?? I didnt say Ullrich was soft in the head. But he is softer than Lance Armstrong in the head. And that is a disadvantage. Listen when you are talking about the difference between success and failure at this level every piece of the cog (emotion, physical, mental, pysiological etc) must be in harmony. A weak mental lapse at any point could mean major time losses in a single day.

I clearly undertstand that these athletes make "everday citizens" mental toughness look sillly, they are all champions in thier own right. But we are talking about the elite of the elite competing and gaining advantages against each other on the smallest of margins, and I think you are discounting the mental toughness aspect far too much.

2 possibilities -
2006 (Basso)
Never (Ullrich).

Dont you mean Never "again" ;)

Dont you mean Never "again" ;)
Yes, that is more correct- he certainly earned his victories in the past.

So obviously Basso can hang with Lance (or really, the other way 'round), but I'm starting to wonder if he's got the ability to attack LA. Or, to put it more succinctly, if he's got the ability to attack with anything that LA can't match. Ullrich has gotten dropped on almost every climb, Basso hangs in, but only seems to test LA with short little accelerations that LA matches every time. Looks like Basso will be content with a 2nd place again and focus on next year. Ullrich is what, about 3:00 out of 3rd right now, he'll probably pull ahead of Rasmussen next week for a podium finish.

Basso is making his moves, and LA seems to counter them all.

Ullrich has made his too, but they are all backwards.

Imagine if Basso hadn't ridden the Giro.

Basso has one last (slim) shot at winning the Tour. If Basso can reach the top of the Aubisque on Tuesday five minutes ahead of Lance...

But, Lance won't let Basso out of his sight. So, the only way Basso can beat Lance on Tuesday will be to duke it out, all the way up the Aubisque...exciting to watch, if Basso decides to go to war.

2006 looks better for Basso. He is just 27 years old. There has been a steady trend in his TdF performances since age 24: he has finished 11th, 7th, 3rd...and now he is looking at 2nd....so in 2006, Basso has to be one of the favorites. If he can improve his time trialing, he will be the favorite next year.

And Jan? Father Time is knocking at the door. But, he has established himself as one of the great Tour riders of our time. He and Lance have dominated the Tour for a decade: this will be the seventh year that Ullrich has finished among the top five riders in Paris. That places him among the elite riders of the Tour's 102 year history.

Jesus.....Shut up.

Imagine if Basso hadn't ridden the Giro.

Or if Lance had.

Imagine if Basso hadn't ridden the Giro.

And if my uncle had pedals.....

You actually think that all athletes have the same mental fortidude and it just comes down to physical execution?? I didnt say Ullrich was soft in the head. But he is softer than Lance Armstrong in the head. And that is a disadvantage. Listen when you are talking about the difference between success and failure at this level every piece of the cog (emotion, physical, mental, pysiological etc) must be in harmony. A weak mental lapse at any point could mean major time losses in a single day.

I clearly understand that these athletes make "everday citizens" mental toughness look sillly, they are all champions in thier own right. But we are talking about the elite of the elite competing and gaining advantages against each other on the smallest of margins, and I think you are discounting the mental toughness aspect far too much.

I couldn't agree more. Sports hero history throughout every game is marked by victors who have that extra mental focus/edge. Especially with those who dominate such as Jordan, Woods, etc,.. It could also be their ability to relax and simply perform better under pressure, like with Joe Montana. A good example of Ullrich's mental lapse was on display the other day when he nearly fell over after rubbing wheels with Ivan Basso when the three of them were riding together. I know the announcer said it was a fan's fault, but the replay shows JU just not responding quick enough to the small move Basso made. Ullrich has a history of falling or running off the road, and most of them can probably be blamed on a lack of focus, which is part of "mental toughness." Other than caused by a fan in 2003, when has Lance Armstrong crashed during the TdF?

ummm Basso rode the giro why? maybe because Lance wouldn't be there, and he'd have surely won had he not gotten the tummy problems? does anyone really think Basso would be armstrong at the tour even on his absolute A game?

Ullrich is done. I saw that in the Tour de Suisse he would not be a competitor for the TdF. I'll be surprised if he can even podium.

Basso is good but not better than Lance in anything. If you aren't better than leader in anything, it's up to lady luck and she's been shining on Disco Inc not CSC.

ummm Basso rode the giro why? maybe because Lance wouldn't be there, and he'd have surely won had he not gotten the tummy problems? does anyone really think Basso would be armstrong at the tour even on his absolute A game?

You never know what may have happened. Two grand tours in two months takes a lot out of a rider.

i agree, but it seems his team had a pretty good idea what would happen thus the decision. it's all his next year, but LA would beat the snot out of him in a TT and winning the giro and taking a podium spot at the tour looks pretty damn good on the resume.

Imagine if Basso hadn't ridden the Giro.




+1
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ummm Basso rode the giro why? maybe because Lance wouldn't be there, and he'd have surely won had he not gotten the tummy problems? does anyone really think Basso would be armstrong at the tour even on his absolute A game?

I think Basso would have been even stronger. Enough to beat Lance? We'll never know. Lance used to crack on Simoni constantly for riding both. He'd say Simoni was stupid for riding both and no one could ride both and be competetive in the tour, you had to pick one. Basso has proven he has the onions to ride both and ride to win.

I think sometime in the near future he'll be the next one since '97 to complete the Giro/Tour double, something Lance won't be able to say (not that I think he cares).

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Basso is stronger than ever (not as strong as Lance unfortunately), and if he keeps it up and peaks timely for the next year TDF he could be unstoppable. What I loved the most about yesterday's tough stage, when he led Armstrong to the finish line was his killer instinct look, boy he had it, you could read his determination and guts all over his face, even Lance admitted afterwards that he felt relieved he didn't really need to attack Ivan, because that would've have to be a monumental effort on his part, and even though he (Lance) wan't in trouble at all, he was getting tired by Basso's strong pulls very strong all the way to the finish line.

Corsaire :)

Basso is stronger than ever (not as strong as Lance unfortunately), and if he keeps it up and peaks timely for the next year TDF he could be unstoppable. What I loved the most about yesterday's tough stage, when he led Armstrong to the finish line was his killer instinct look, boy he had it, you could read his determination and guts all over his face, even Lance admitted afterwards that he felt relieved he didn't really need to attack Ivan, because that would've have to be a monumental effort on his part, and even though he (Lance) wan't in trouble at all, he was getting tired by Basso's strong pulls very strong all the way to the finish line.

Corsaire :)


Basso really did look great. Nice to see someone attack and give whatever he had to accellerate to attempt to drop Armstrong. At least someone was accellerating and maintaining their pace. Armstrong is the great rider of the tour, no doubt. He had an answer for Basso every time, but I think even Armstrong was impressed with the attacks and although he wasn't in trouble, I don't think he had much left.

Great couple of stages. Truly classic.
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