Professional Cycling - Stage 20: Saint-Etienne ITT

Stage 20: Saint-Etienne ITT, 55.5 km

Lance wins!

:D (couldn't resist)

Koffee

if rasmusen keeps up with lance or is wearing the yellow before this stage he will definentally lose it here. LA wins and next closest person is a minute 30sec back.

The hilly course doesnt favor Jan too much either. Pretty clear Lance is the favorite. Hes openly stated that he feels the winner of the TdF should win the final time trial. If im correct the only time he didnt is when he let up after jan crashed in 2003 I think.

The hilly course doesnt favor Jan too much either. Pretty clear Lance is the favorite. Hes openly stated that he feels the winner of the TdF should win the final time trial. If im correct the only time he didnt is when he let up after jan crashed in 2003 I think.

Hilly TT like this seems to make for a more difficult TT... something Ullrich would be in favor of. Isn't this the same exact route as in a 1997 ITT, where he crushed the field? (so long ago though) Climbers tend to really suffer on long, hilly ITTs.
You are correct the only time Armstrong didn't win the final TT was 2003.

Hilly TT like this seems to make for a more difficult TT... something Ullrich would be in favor of. Isn't this the same exact route as in a 1997 ITT, where he crushed the field? (so long ago though) Climbers tend to really suffer on long, hilly ITTs.
You are correct the only time Armstrong didn't win the final TT was 2003.

Ullrich likes to use the big giant gear rings in the TTs and a hilly course does not match up well to big chain ring riding. Where as Lances ultra high cadence in a lower gear benefits him as the course gets hilly. While clearly Jan is a spectacular TT, I was more refering to his disadvantage against Lance then the rest of the field.

Ullrich likes to use the big giant gear rings in the TTs and a hilly course does not match up well to big chain ring riding.

He will be going very fast on those hills you know. They're nothing like the real climbs in the mountains. Powerhouse TT riders usually do very well on the hills, with their big gears.
But yeah, when does an ITT route favor Ullrich over Armstrong? Maybe on a perfectly flat road.

He will be going very fast on those hills you know. They're nothing like the real climbs in the mountains. Powerhouse TT riders usually do very well on the hills, with their big gears.
But yeah, when does an ITT route favor Ullrich over Armstrong? Maybe on a perfectly flat road.

I asked this question elsewhere but it would have bprobably been better here. Do you think e can make up 3 minutes on basso in the ITT. I know Basso is improved.

Not the deficit to Basso, I don't think.

On Rasmussen? Probably.

Agreed. I think Jan gets 3rd.

I asked this question elsewhere but it would have bprobably been better here. Do you think e can make up 3 minutes on basso in the ITT. I know Basso is improved.

Could go either way really. Probably Basso... maybe he will lose just 1-2 minutes. Judging by their form now, and their form last year and the performances in the final ITT last year.

So Jan needs to attack Basso for a 2nd place finish. Hmmm...Lets see if hes interested enough to go after him. For the record I think big Jan can put 3 minutes on Basso in the ITT, so I think if Jan doesnt lose anymore time that it will be VERY CLOSE.

Everyone has been looking for drama, Id say 2nd place is shapping up to have some serious excitement.

So Jan needs to attack Basso for a 2nd place finish. Hmmm...Lets see if hes interested enough to go after him. For the record I think big Jan can put 3 minutes on Basso in the ITT, so I think if Jan doesnt lose anymore time that it will be VERY CLOSE.

Everyone has been looking for drama, Id say 2nd place is shapping up to have some serious excitement.

Didn't Basso get a 2nd in a TT this year at the Giro?

Basso took 2nd to Zabriskie in the first TT of the Giro.. in the last TT, he beat Zabriskie. His time trialing has much improved. Ullrich couldn't take enough time out of him last year, I definitely don't think he will be able to this year.

The podium as I see it:

Armstrong
Basso
Ullrich

A hilly course works in Jan's favor. You can see how his big diesel really starts cooking when he's on the lower grades in the mountains. I hope he can beat Rasmussen to take third overall.
1. Armstrong
2. Basso
3. Ullrich

Any thoughts on whether Leipheimer can make up 1:04 on Mancebo to nab fifth place? (Or lose 1:37 to Cadel Evans to drop to 7th?)

Leipheimer claims that he likes hilly time trials, but last year Mancebo beat him by 25 seconds on the Alpe d'Huez TT. Leipheimer then beat Mancebo by 2:29 on the 19th stage TT.

I say it will be a claose finish, i dont think anyone will want lace to get a blowout in his last Pro TT.

Yeah, the only reason Lance didn't win the last TT in 2003 at Nantes (I was there in the pouring rain sans umbrella, go me!) was because doped-up Millar (sp?) won it. Also, Ullrich did his little slip and slide across the rode so Lance eased-up.

My prediction? Lance-Ullrich 1-2 in the TT. Who knows? If Basso's improved TT is The Real Deal(TM) maybe he takes 3rd. In any case, it's pretty clear to me that the podium in Paris will have:

1. Lance
2. Basso
3. Ulle

Rasmussen doesn't stand a chance, IMO, with 2:12 lead, inspired race or not.

Basso took 2nd to Zabriskie in the first TT of the Giro.. in the last TT, he beat Zabriskie. His time trialing has much improved. Ullrich couldn't take enough time out of him last year, I definitely don't think he will be able to this year.


I'm not saying he'll do it, but you have to consider that last years TT was on Alpe d'Huez, a course that seems to suit Basso over Ullrich, yet he still took time out of him. This course suits Jan over Basso, the time gap should be bigger than last year.

I'm still not sold on the TT from the Giro. DZ was in the end of his first 3 week race (he abandoned the Vuelta where he wond a stage in '04), so fatigue may have been a factor and the Giro is not noted for it's overwhelming abundance of TT specialists. Salvodelli had a 3rd and 4th place finish respectively, any chance of him landing on the lead board in this TT? Simoni had a top 10 finish in the TT that Basso won!

I hope he confirms it in this Tour, he's attacked and laid it all out there, so he deserves the second step on the podium. But, I think it may be closer than some people think.

Tomorrow is pretty much it for Lance. Given that, and that he hasn't had to ride hard the last couple days, and that he hasn't won a stage yet this year, I would think he's going to go all out to give us all one last moment to remember. Improved or not, Basso will be doing well to keep from being passed by Lance on the road. It'll be interesting to see if Rasmussen keeps it close vis-a-vis Jan. I think that Basso keeps 2nd, but Lance's overall margin of victory will go up to more than 5 minutes. Can't wait!

I think this is Armstrong's. Particularily with him talking about how great he has felt this week. "no chain"... and judging by how he looked on the bike yesturday. Seemed like he could have attacked and dropped them all if he wanted to.

COME ON CHICKEN !!!!

He's my underdog. I want a chicken on the podium :D

I'm with you there! Rasmussen has ridden the best TdF of his life and I hope he can muster a TT to match and hang on to his podium spot.

COME ON CHICKEN !!!!

He's my underdog. I want a chicken on the podium :D

*ding* I think the chicken is done.

What time are the "big boys" supposed to be riding tomorrow? I assume they will have two-minute spacing for the first X number of riders, and then 3 minutes after that -- so where does that put the top ten?

Prolly Lance to get that individual win in his final TDF.
But Vino, Jan, and Jullich will be gunning for one last chance to beat Lance so it's not a done deal.

What time are the "big boys" supposed to be riding tomorrow? I assume they will have two-minute spacing for the first X number of riders, and then 3 minutes after that -- so where does that put the top ten?

They start in reverse order of the GC.
The start times should be up on letour.fr

I'd love to see Armstrong, Basso and Rasmussen on the podium. Ullrich, to me anyway, has the talent but not the heart.

I fully expect Ullrich to do everything possible to gain a podium spot, especially since he missed it last year. While Ullrich's TT skills are far superior to those of Rasmussen's, I would like to believe that the Mountain King has an outside chance of keeping his spot if he can pull off the TT of his career and hold off just one second ahead of Ullrich...I'm sure the thought of a TdF podium award will be more than enough to motivate him to give it his all.

I will be anxiously awaiting that race.

They start in reverse order of the GC.
The start times should be up on letour.fr

Right, they should be, but they aren't. At least not right now.

That's why I was asking if someone knew the exact start times.

Right, they should be, but they aren't. At least not right now.

That's why I was asking if someone knew the exact start times.

Looks like the 1st guy goes off at 10:45 (France time) that's 4:45 am EST.

Last guy is scheduled to roll out at 4:22 (France time) that's 10:22 EST


Start Schedule (http://www.letour.fr/2005/TDF/LIVE/us/2000/horaire.html)

waiting to see this thing cruise ...

waiting to see this thing cruise ...

I hope thos "icons" are sublimated into that disc and not stickers. Can you imagine if they started peeling off during the TT? They might act like feathers and LA will fly away from the lift created and we'll never see him again! :eek:

;)

I am going on a limb here... Jan/Vino...

Obviously I'm perdicting lance, but more importantly, I'm placing ullrich just slow enough to not catch rasmussen for a podium spot.

As much motivation as Jan has to catch him, Rasmussen has more motvation to push it harder. He's cornered into this position and he's thinking that he absolutely has to give the TT everything he has to keep his spot, he's in a position of power to be going against Ulrich. And, he is king of the mountains after all.

Obviously I'm perdicting lance, but more importantly, I'm placing ullrich just slow enough to not catch rasmussen for a podium spot.

As much motivation as Jan has to catch him, Rasmussen has more motvation to push it harder. He's cornered into this position and he's thinking that he absolutely has to give the TT everything he has to keep his spot, he's in a position of power to be going against Ulrich. And, he is king of the mountains after all.

Results from PTT. Off of Zabriskie lead, Armstrong .02, Ullrich 1.08, Basso 1.26, And Rasmussen 3.14. This was over 20 miles. If this was 40 miles and riders were consistent then times would double. Rasmussen 6.28, Ullrich 2.16. Ullrich would gain 4 minutes on Rasmussen and be in 3rd. Lance said in interview today to expect huge time gaps.

Vino is a good TTer, but nowhere near great. I can't see him finishing in the top 4 tomorrow, let alone winning.

I think Rasmussen will lose ~4 min. to Ullrich, and therefore miss the podium by nearly a full minute, unless Ullrich has a bad day- but I think Ullrich will place in the top 2 along with Armstrong. Not a risky pick at all, but I don't see it going any other way.

I'd be surprised if Basso doesn't hold 2nd overall.

Didn't Ulrich crash in the 03 ITT in the rain, losing to Armstrong?

ulle smashes the feild and takes it all!!

seriously, this tour has been too predictable, i want to see some sort of a blow out tomoro.

i think jan will pass rasmusen before the 1/2 way point qnd be nipping on basso's heel's by the finish line, just missing 2nd. lance plays it safe, 2-3-4-or -5 and wins his 7th with a decided lack of panache.

Lance wins
Jan second grabbing third place (GC)
Ivan third (maybe) holding on to second

Jan will be motivated to get third overall so look for a great tt out of him.

Didn't Ulrich crash in the 03 ITT in the rain, losing to Armstrong?

Yeah. I think the time splits were near even before the crash. Then Armstrong began to let up when he knew it was in the bag.

man, bobby is pulling out all the toys... eliptical front rings, camelpack??? that's kinda cool, he really does look like a camel with the thing under his suite

I hope thos "icons" are sublimated into that disc and not stickers. Can you imagine if they started peeling off during the TT? They might act like feathers and LA will fly away from the lift created and we'll never see him again! :eek:

;)
they are stickers.you can see a video of futura applying the stickers here http://www.nike.com/nikecycling/index_flash.html

i wonder how Dave Z would have done today if he didnt drop out.

Rasmussen Crash!!

C'mon guys.... I need updates!!!! I'm the loser stuck at work. =(

Rasmussen lost about 10 seconds due to the crash....but is back up....Everyone is on the course now...Lance is ripping it up (so is Jan)...

Julich, Landis, Hincapie are the top three 17km checkpoint SO FAR

Vino is now #1 at the first checkpoint (17km)

Top 5 at 17km checkpoint now/

1- 019 VINOKOUROV (KAZ, TMO) 00:26:10
2- 044 EVANS (AUS, DVL) 00:26:20 11"
3- 023 JULICH (USA, CSC) 00:26:21 12"
4- 066 LANDIS (USA, PHO) 00:26:27 17"
5- 004 HINCAPIE (USA, DSC) 00:26:41 31"

Ullrich has gained 1 minute and 12seconds already on Rasmussen!! Neither have even hit 17km yet!!! Yikes!

Leipheimer just went through the first check in 9th