General Cycling Discussion - High gas prices = Higher bicycle demand = Higher prices for bicycles and components?

In Georgia, of course...

http://news.mywebpal.com/partners/680/public/news657293.html

More people riding bicycles in Colorado...

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/local/article/0,1299,DRMN_15_4063496,00.html

Joplin Missouri as well

http://www.joplinglobe.com/story.php?story_id=204714&c=87

Will this result in higher prices for bicycles and components?

You're dreamin' - The average SUV driver may commute on their existing coaster-brake cruiser that they dig out of their garage, but they aint about to become regular about it. So long as they can afford the gas, they'll be driving. Or, as I heard one matron put it, "Gas prices are getting so high I'm going to have to quit smoking to afford my gas!"

why is it that american cars are so big... europe has +5dollar gallons and they arent whining....

actually there've been protests (in britain at least)... or maybe i was dreaming... sometimes i can't tell. :D

Of course, cost can actually go down as demand goes up. Many people buy calculators and computer printers and movies, and these items are relatively cheaper now than in the early days when few people bought them.

One reason that computers and printers can go down in price as demand goes up is that they are renewable. The oil in the middle east, alaska and the gulf is most unfortunately not. Eventually it will run out. Thankfully not during our lifetime!

why is it that american cars are so big... europe has +5dollar gallons and they arent whining....


I laugh as I walk by the big SUV's, wondering if the gas company's had to put a lien on their house yet.

My wife works for Red Cross, & one of her volunteers actually asked her if I had an extra bike so he could start commuting to work.

One reason that computers and printers can go down in price as demand goes up is that they are renewable. The oil in the middle east, alaska and the gulf is most unfortunately not. Eventually it will run out. Thankfully not during our lifetime!

Computers aren't renewable. Sure, you can recycle, but you don't get 100% return rate. Wonder when we'll run out of sand to supply us with silicon? :p

Or, as I heard one matron put it, "Gas prices are getting so high I'm going to have to quit smoking to afford my gas!"

And that's just what they say in public, in reality they keep on driving and keep on smoking and just stop feeding their kids.

The reason gas is so much cheaper here in the US is because of our high consumption. To put it in a different perspective, we are the Wal-mart of the petroleum market. We can negotiate lower prices because of our high volume. If consumption here is vastly reduced, then we start seeing Europe-level pricing.

By the same token, if substatially more people start riding bicycles, then you can expect prices to drop after volumes go up. However, the initial supply constraint as demand rises and suppliers race to increase production capacity/volumes would cause a delay before the price drop. Fewer deals would be offered, as MSRP would become the norm.

Reality? We are a "car society" in the US. Gas would have to hit $6-$7 per gallon before Americans would dream of giving up the beloved automobile. Heck, I'd have to cycle 15 miles to catch the train every morning (in business casual!) Moving closer to work would be way too expensive right now (+$100k min) just to move closer to work. Now imagine housing prices in the city when EVERYONE wants to move closer!

Give up the car? Not gonna happen....

Americans are way too dependant on their cars. The suburban tracts, drive through windows, freeways or expressways, roads dominated by large motor vehicles, and other traps keep people in line (both figuratively and actually).

With more people buying bicycles I would say prices would go down. Why? Because bicycles and parts would be able to sell in higher volume.

This is the opposite of an auto company like Bentley which bases it's pricing on low volume sales with high prices.

Just relax. It will take sometime for the cycling fever to hit them all. We can be sure that all those lazy couch potatoes will not jump up and be zapped by the cycle love bug. Motorcycles may be the first. I am getting one in the spring to make some of my comutes a little less stressful. However, i need to figure out how to strap my bicycle to the thing? I'll figure something out.

cycle on!

Americans are way too dependant on their cars...

Agreed, but until practical, safe, and reliable public transportation is available and used, we'll remain an automobile society. If we were smart, we'd have started public funding and construction of elevated light-rail systems in ALL metropolitan areas with elevated high speed rail (passenger only) in the medians of all interstate highways. Sitting in your SUV, parked in bumper-to-bumper on the interstate, and watching the elevated train go by at 150 mph might motivate some to switch! :D

In Georgia, of course...

http://news.mywebpal.com/partners/680/public/news657293.html

More people riding bicycles in Colorado...

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/local/article/0,1299,DRMN_15_4063496,00.html

Joplin Missouri as well

http://www.joplinglobe.com/story.php?story_id=204714&c=87

Will this result in higher prices for bicycles and components?

Maybe very short term, however long term you could expect them to drop. When pricing bikes at a LBS in my area the comments sometime back indicated that relative pricing between bicycle styles varied inversely to volume. At the time higher volumes of ATBs resulted in lower relative prices.

The reason gas is so much cheaper here in the US is because of our high consumption. To put it in a different perspective, we are the Wal-mart of the petroleum market. We can negotiate lower prices because of our high volume. If consumption here is vastly reduced, then we start seeing Europe-level pricing

No, Europe has a much higher taxation rate on gasoline.

why is it that american cars are so big... europe has +5dollar gallons and they arent whining....

I think it's asthetics and also Mutually Assured Destruction, or something. No one wants to be left with a small car thinking they will be the ones killed in an accident.

Kind off odd, when you consider how bad drivers Americans can be... something that could be corrected at a much lower cost.

Motorcycles may be the first. I am getting one in the spring to make some of my comutes a little less stressful. However, i need to figure out how to strap my bicycle to the thing? I'll figure something out.

I remember seeing a thread on how to strap a bicycle to a motorcycle not too long ago. Not sure if the person figured it out though.

Reality? We are a "car society" in the US. Gas would have to hit $6-$7 per gallon before Americans would dream of giving up the beloved automobile. Heck, I'd have to cycle 15 miles to catch the train every morning (in business casual!) Moving closer to work would be way too expensive right now (+$100k min) just to move closer to work. Now imagine housing prices in the city when EVERYONE wants to move closer!


I guess those of us living in the city have the best of all worlds. I live right next to a supermarket and the dry clearners is just down the block. The park is about a block and a half away with my $53.00 dollar a month, (unlimited rides) light rail just 7 blocks away. I have to say the price of gas has had no impact in my life.

You have a good point in that housing prices in the city when EVERYONE wants to move closer could go through the roof and I see this happening already! All new high rise construction is for luxury apartments costing 175k and up to 1 million for one or three bedroom apartments. People are moving back into the city in droves and for the first time in my life, I'm seeing construction in areas that have been abandoned for 75 years! Construction is happening everywhere in swamps, slums and toxic waste sites! It's incredible.

However, living in the burbs is not cheap either. Homes in the burbs (New Jersey) are not averaging about 275K and up if you want to live there. You're only hope for inexpensive housing are the exurbs or 125 miles away from the city. Traveling 225 miles a day to work in the city should be real fun. Of couse, you can move to Alaska and live with the bears. ;-)

"I have to say the price of gas has had no impact in my life."

Just wait a little while. You know all that stuff you buy at the grocery store, it gets there with fuel. The public transit, might be electric, but that power gets generated somehow probably coal/oil/nuclear. The lights in your house, on the street, and in the store as well. Does not really matter which one as they are all tied to each other, same with propane and natural gas. So this winter expect that heating bill to be 30-50% higher.

Give up the car? Not gonna happen....

Maybe not quickly, but long-term higher gas prices will lead to a gradual re-engineering of society to accomodate people who want to pay less for housing and transport or who simply can't afford the new higher costs of suburban life. Higher energy prices will mean large suburban homes will not only be more expensive to commute to, they'll also be more expensive to build, maintain, heat, and air-condition, it will cost more to fill the lawn tractor; also, it will cost more for municipalities to provide police and fire/EMT service, snowplowing etc., etc., etc. so property taxes will soar or services will whither. Young people looking to buy a first home will increasingly see the value of accepting less house...maybe an infill rowhouse in a re-gentrified inner city neighbourhood, or a new condo on a converted factory lot. Sure the upfront costs may be high due to high realty costs related to the "re-Manhattanization" (my phrase) of inner cities all over the country. However, offsetting that, they will they save what they would have spent on buying and fueling that second SUV and the other increased suburban costs I mentioned, and they will also save the time they would have spent in gridlock, and hey, time is money - they can invest it in family, more hours of work, or...biking!
Robert

So this winter expect that heating bill to be 30-50% higher.
My heating bill = $0. I am disconnected. Avg jan temp inside is 50's. I work at 5am and find it easier to hit 40 degrees outside by acclimation, I do shorts until 48 degrees. If you think thats extreme I don't own a car (name).

Not everbody lives in SoCal.

No so cal, but middle cal, sacramento. middle of the valley. they pay for it with 100 degree summers and fog in the winter. Oh, and horrible, impatient traffic.

Of course, cost can actually go down as demand goes up. Many people buy calculators and computer printers and movies, and these items are relatively cheaper now than in the early days when few people bought them.

I hope you are joking, ViciousCycle. In the short term, the demand pushes the price higher.

Actually you have skipped a few steps. It goes like this...

Demand goes up -> inventory decreases -> price goes up temporarily -> profitability goes up -> production goes up -> production surpass the demand -> inventory increases -> price comes down

No, Europe has a much higher taxation rate on gasoline.
Granted, but that is only part of the picture. My dad worked for Chevron, and explained it in excruciating detail way too many times (wish he was still here to explain it just once more.... :( )

Maybe not quickly, but long-term higher gas prices will lead to a gradual re-engineering of society to accomodate people who want to pay less for housing and transport or who simply can't afford the new higher costs of suburban life. Higher energy prices will mean large suburban homes will not only be more expensive to commute to, they'll also be more expensive to build, maintain, heat, and air-condition, it will cost more to fill the lawn tractor; also, it will cost more for municipalities to provide police and fire/EMT service, snowplowing etc., etc., etc. so property taxes will soar or services will whither. Young people looking to buy a first home will increasingly see the value of accepting less house...maybe an infill rowhouse in a re-gentrified inner city neighbourhood, or a new condo on a converted factory lot. Sure the upfront costs may be high due to high realty costs related to the "re-Manhattanization" (my phrase) of inner cities all over the country. However, offsetting that, they will they save what they would have spent on buying and fueling that second SUV and the other increased suburban costs I mentioned, and they will also save the time they would have spent in gridlock, and hey, time is money - they can invest it in family, more hours of work, or...biking!
Robert

So what happens when EVERYONE wants to move into the city in your little utopia? As it is, I live in a 7yr old, 1200 sq ft house that is 40miles from San Jose. Current market value is $570k. Equivalent in SJ is about $800k. I can buy a lot of gas for $230k.

Now imagine that AFTER everyone wants to pile into the city.

BTW, I like my car. I like that I can tell the family to hop in the car, cuz we are heading to the beach. Or Lake Tahoe. Or Disneyland. I like that my wife didn't have to ride her Trek or take the bus to the hospital to have our children. I would hate living in the urban jungle, but like going there to shop, etc. Then I head back to my nice, peaceful small town of 30,000.

As far as my home size, mine is too darn small. I have two children that have no yard to speak of to play in and we need more sqare footage in the home, so we are looking at larger homes here in town. A larger home with a yard in walking/cycling distance of my SJ office? $1,000,000. Got any spare change, buddy?

So what happens when EVERYONE wants to move into the city in your little utopia? ?
I don't know, but we'll inevitably find out. Oil will run out - you know that just as much as I do.

You should check out a motorcycle dealer on a Saturday. Oy!

It literally took me longer to buy my wifes Yamaha V-Star Custom than it did to buy our Jetta TDI.

I don't know, but we'll inevitably find out. Oil will run out - you know that just as much as I do.

I do. If we have half a brain as a species (up for debate), then we'll be seriously looking at development of an alternate power source for our car. All the corporate research occurring now seems to be on the .05%-of-the-budget, wow-wouldn't-it-be-neat, check-the-box-for-being-eco-friendly level. Nothing serious will happen until there becomes an urgent FISCAL reason to do so.

I do. If we have half a brain as a species (up for debate), then we'll be seriously looking at development of an alternate power source for our car.
This may come across as more offensive than I intend it to, but that does sound like a half-brain solution. Improving the energy usage of cars solves one part of the problem only to make all the other car-related problems worse. To give one example, we are always going to need to preserve a lot of land for both food agriculture and nature - we can't keep paving it for freeways and parking lots, or converting it to ethanol production - and in fact our fields won't be as artificially productive as they are now, when there is no more petrochemical fertilizer to be had.
R

This may come across as more offensive than I intend it to, but that does sound like a half-brain solution. Improving the energy usage of cars solves one part of the problem only to make all the other car-related problems worse. To give one example, we are always going to need to preserve a lot of land for both food agriculture and nature - we can't keep paving it for freeways and parking lots, or converting it to ethanol production - and in fact our fields won't be as artificially productive as they are now, when there is no more petrochemical fertilizer to be had.
R

No offense taken at all.

My point is that the automobile is ideal as a family-based people-mover. If I want to take the family to the mall, a playground, the grocery store, whatever..., the automobile provides the most autonomy and easy of use, as well as storage capacity. Ever try to take two toddlers, a double-stroller, diaper bag, and several bags of whatever you just went shopping for onto a bus/subway/train?

Therefore, the logical progression of thought is to power our automobiles via another power-source. Maybe internal combustion, maybe not. Otherwise, you are restricting mobility (and therefore quality of life) by forcing people to use transportation modes that are not preferred. For example, even here in eco-nazi CA, the commuter trains are rarely more than half-full.

actually there've been protests (in britain at least)... or maybe i was dreaming... sometimes i can't tell. :D

Apparently nobody could be bothered turned up :o

And that's just what they say in public, in reality they keep on driving and keep on smoking and just stop feeding their kids.

With the shape most kids are in the states, maybe that's not a bad thing :D

With the shape most kids are in the states, maybe that's not a bad thing :D

Sad but true - stupid people produce stupid kids. The other problem is that the stupid people are seriously outbreeding the smart ones. The book, "The Bell Curve," wasn't liked, but it wasn't wrong either.

Steve, you're overlooking the fact that oil in the US is subsidised:

http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicles/fuel_economy/subsidizing-big-oil.html

There is no free lunch in these matters but the least destructive options need to be identified & implemented. There are many hidden costs that also need to be factored in.

It's notable that Americans are indifferent to 50,000 deaths every year on the highways, yet indignant that 3000 have been killed by terrorists. Imagine the outcry if 50,000 Americans were dying annually in a war.

In New Jersey, you are required to purchase minimum liability "insurance" on every car. On my wife's car, it costs us $4 per gallon of gas for that "insurance". That's because she rides her bike everywhere and the car only gets about 3000 miles/year.

Otherwise, you are restricting mobility (and therefore quality of life) by forcing people to use transportation modes that are not preferred.

Quality of life is multifactorial. One of my kids has asthma and can't play outside on smog days, so his mobility and and quality of life are compromised. About a quarter or more of that smog comes directly from other people's cars and a good chunk of the rest comes from the oil and other auto-related industries. Cars are the number one killer of children, and the quality of life in a bereaved family is severely reduced. On the street I grew up on, the next three houses all lost a family member in a vehicular accident over a 15 year span. That hits - literally - close to home.
Robert

Steve, you're overlooking the fact that oil in the US is subsidised:

http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicles/fuel_economy/subsidizing-big-oil.html

There is no free lunch in these matters but the least destructive options need to be identified & implemented. There are many hidden costs that also need to be factored in.

It's notable that Americans are indifferent to 50,000 deaths every year on the highways, yet indignant that 3000 have been killed by terrorists. Imagine the outcry if 50,000 Americans were dying annually in a war.

That article uses some of the weakest backing for use of the term "subsidized" that I've ever seen. Though maybe the industry is subsidized, the cost to the consumer is not, because 99% of the taxpayers whose money is used to subsidize the industry is buying the gas from them anyway.

However, lest you think I'm an oil-industry toadie, let me just state that you don't want to get me started on the oil industry's **** of America following Katrina. I mean, CA is an oil-island. We import our own oil, we refine it all here, all because of our Krazy Kalifornia regulations. Katrina shouldn't have even been a blip on our oil-price radar (I mean, the above-mentioned isolation is why our gas is more expensive than the rest of the country in the first place), but our gas goes up a dollar per gallon?!?!? OK, blood pressure going up.... :fight: :mad:

The 50,000 motorists are dying in ACCIDENTS . The 3,000 were COLD-BLOODED MURDER. You can't tell the difference?

Quality of life is multifactorial. One of my kids has asthma and can't play outside on smog days, so his mobility and and quality of life are compromised. About a quarter or more of that smog comes directly from other people's cars and a good chunk of the rest comes from the oil and other auto-related industries. Cars are the number one killer of children, and the quality of life in a bereaved family is severely reduced. On the street I grew up on, the next three houses all lost a family member in a vehicular accident over a 15 year span. That hits - literally - close to home.
Robert

Robert,

Excellent points....ones that I hadn't pondered. I guess it all comes down to weighing pro's and con's, and for most Americans, the automobile's benefits weigh favorably against its downsides.

Steve

The oil in the middle east, alaska and the gulf is most unfortunately not. Eventually it will run out. Thankfully not during our lifetime!

Do you say so? How old are you? Some estimates place the remaining coal supply (the most plentiful fossil fuel) at under 100 years. There is quite a bit less oil than coal.

Not during our lifetime?

i like the sign thats posted on one of the biology teachers doors
"Fund Amtrak, America needs trains"
I'm inclined to agree, we need more trains and more bikes

i like the sign thats posted on one of the biology teachers doors
"Fund Amtrak, America needs trains"
I'm inclined to agree, we need more trains and more bikes

Hmmm...Amtrak. When's the last time you saw a full Amtrak train? 3/4 full? 1/2 full? Problem with Amtrak is that NOBODY USES IT!!! Fund Amtrak? Sure....with ticket sales. If everyone's just dying to take the train, why don't they? Because they'd rather take the car or plane.

Amtrak is heavily fed-subsidized....it has to be to continue to operate. They sure as heck aren't turning a profit from ticket sales.

Ummmm......how far off topic are we now?

Ummmm......how far off topic are we now?
I think this is supposed to be a macro-economics thread...
High gas prices = Higher bicycle demand = Higher bicycle prices.

How about...
Higher bicycle prices = Lower bicycle demand = More driving = Higher gas prices.

The best thing about the free market...............It's free!

Suppose that in the past decade prices for bicycles and their components have risen considerably allready, at least here in the Netherlands.
Let us just hope that the ever increasing demand will make room for new kids on the block as Shimano is far to dominant.

"Hmmm...Amtrak. When's the last time you saw a full Amtrak train? 3/4 full? 1/2 full?"

Apparently you haven't ridden the Eastern corridor lately. I can't recall the last time I rode from Richmond to NYC that the train wasn't stuffed to the gills, esp. after DC, but it's always tight even in RVA.

Amtrak would likely be self-sufficent if so many congressmen didn't insist on rail to their home districts; the run between Portland ME and Rich Va is apparently quite profitable. It's the rest of the system that's the boondoggle.