"The 33"-Road Bike Racing - Predict the TdF podium by 5/3/06

This poll will close on 5/3/2006.

Since polls only allow up to 10 choices, and the leader for Discovery is unclear, I'll just make the generic "TBD Discovery leader" as one of the choices.

CORRECTION: Popovych finished 12th in 05 and George in 14th, not vice versa like I listed above (and can no longer correct).

So, I'm guessing that Ullrich and Basso will have too much confidence and pressure and will not actually place, while those with less pressure will shine. In particular, at this point, I'm predicting Vino, Floyd and Cadel will be on top. Vino was incredible last year, and showed how strong he still was on the last day. Since then, he has prepared mentally and physically specifically for the Tour. He seems to have the strongest (most determined) personality of them all, and I think he will pull it off. Floyd has made incredible improvements in both the TT and in climbing... good enough to jump all the way to the top of the podium, just below Vino. And the man from Down Under will finish right behind him.

I reserve the right to update my prediction as we get closer to the start!

I chose Jan, Ivan, and Vino. I hope its in that order.

Basso, Ullrich, and Landis, in that order.

I'm not even a Landis fan really, but with TTs being so important this year I just can't bring myself to pick Valverde or Vino over him.

I hate to be boring and pick Basso since everybody and their brother will pick him. I've done my fair share of supporting Jan around here and I hope he wins, but the knee problem scares me. Basso has improved his TTs and he has an experience advantage of being the #1 TDF guy on his team over guys like Vino and Valverde. Bjarne Riis has all of the CSC guys in such a relaxed mood, and they really support each other. He's built a fantastic team atmosphere with those guys. I think they really do believe that Basso can win both the Giro and the Tour.

There's just one question: How will Basso handle the pressure if he becomes the overwhelming media favorite?

Why does everyone keep saying the TTs are so important this year? I'll start a separate thread on that.

Basso, Ullrich, and Landis, in that order.

I'm not even a Landis fan really, but with TTs being so important this year I just can't bring myself to pick Valverde or Vino over him.

I hate to be boring and pick Basso since everybody and their brother will pick him. I've done my fair share of supporting Jan around here and I hope he wins, but the knee problem scares me. Basso has improved his TTs and he has an experience advantage of being the #1 TDF guy on his team over guys like Vino and Valverde. Bjarne Riis has all of the CSC guys in such a relaxed mood, and they really support each other. He's built a fantastic team atmosphere with those guys. I think they really do believe that Basso can win both the Giro and the Tour.

There's just one question: How will Basso handle the pressure if he becomes the overwhelming media favorite?

+1, I really hop it is Basso, Ulrich, and Landis on the podium in Paris. CSC is the team to beat this year, and if CSC has good luck, then it will be Basso. If Ulrich can hold his own on the climbs, and gain back some time in the time trials I see Jan in 1st.

Basso: Better climber then the three.... Has a STRONGER TEAM.
Jan: Better overall, and this maybe his last tour, and chance of winning
Landis: Could be an exciting wild card (time trials), as long as his team can support him, and he can hold his own in the climbs

Basso, Landis, Ullrich

Mark

I think it'll be Basso, Ullrich and Vino. But I wouldn't be surprised at an Iban Mayo reprise.

+
Landis: Could be an exciting wild card (time trials), as long as his team can support him, and he cna hold his own in the climbs


Thats certainly his soft spot... I forsee Floyd being alot like Jan in 2003...where he just rides with the leaders, and there is no other phonak jerseys to be seen...

1st: Ivan Basso.

2nd: Jan Ullrich.

3rd: Alejandro Valverde.

FTW.

Thats certainly his soft spot... I forsee Floyd being alot like Jan in 2003...where he just rides with the leaders, and there is no other phonak jerseys to be seen...

Pretty much a shadow of the Brasstown climb at the TDG, where it was just Landis, Danielson, and Popo.

Personally, I am hoping Ulrich wins, just because he is the older of the three.... and his tour years a numbered.

If he wins.... I wouldn't be surpirsed if he retired.... but I also wouldn't be surprised if he continues riding for another 4-6 years (does awful), and completely destroys his Legacy.

Why does everyone keep saying the TTs are so important this year? I'll start a separate thread on that.


2 long ITT's. Only 2 days in the Pyranees, and only 3 mountain top finishes. It's too bad that Uhlrich is not on form because the organizers set this course to give him a great chance to give Basso a race.

So, I'm guessing that Ullrich and Basso will have too much confidence and pressure and will not actually place, while those with less pressure will shine.

Care to put any money on Basso not placing? Barring injury or illness between now and the start, Basso to place is about as close to a lock as anything ever gets in cycling.

1st: Ivan Basso.

2nd: Jan Ullrich.

3rd: Alejandro Valverde.

FTW.

You've got the right people, just the wrong order;)
I've got:
1st The Jan
2nd Basso
3rd Valverde

The only other lock is Rasmussen doesn't make top 10.

The only other lock is Rasmussen doesn't make top 10.

It will be hard for him this year, the peloton isn't going to let him get away as easily.... and we have seen his TT skills! :D

Betting the trifecta on this I'd have to go with Basso to win, then box Ullrich, Landis and Valverde. I think those three will cross the line second through fourth, but too tough to pick the exact order.

Anyone think Hincapie top 10?, or how about Levi?


As for Basso: The Giro will be the deciding factor.... it may weaken him too much for the tour..... can't wait find out! This tour has the potential to be one of the best tours in the past decade. (2003 was pretty exciting though)

Ullrich, Vino, Evans. I love Basso, but I question whether he can keep it together and avoid sickness for as long as he needs to. I fear Floyd may have peaked too early. I'm hoping to be surprised by Levi, great rider, but I'm just not sure he's got the quality for the Tour. And Mancebo could do it, but he looks too agonized on the bike for me to vote for him. Ahhh, it's a crapshoot.

Basso
Vino
Ullrich

Landis and Valverde rounding out the top five. Rasmussen being allowed out of anyone's sight? It's possible because no one will worry about him for the TTs but top ten? No chance. CSC is a strong team and will be riding for Basso, but anyone else think that other CSCs could make the top five? Julich? Voight? Zabriskie? They can TT and climb (I know that Z isn't considered a climber but at his power outputs nd being only a bit over 140 lbs, he can't be bad either) and will be sure to attack the living daylights out of the others. If one gets away, you could have 2 CSCs within the top 5.

Julich and Voight are getting up there in age, and it really depends how much energy they expend for Basso to how high of a podium spot they get. I see at least 3 CSC riders in top 15.

If I was CSC I would let Landis or Ulrich take the yellowin the first 12 days This will save all of the teams strength in the earlier stages, letting Phonak and other teams chase down breaks. This will give Basso well rested domestiques in the mountain stages.

Too early to pick...illness injury etc. but based on the past and current fitness and Basso riding the Giro to win ...Ullrich, Landis, Vino. This TDF will be won and lost with tactics and teamwork...with that said how do you leave out CSC and Disco??? What a crapshoot.

Ulrich, Basso, Vinokourov

I am hoping Ullrich wins this year. Maybe T-Mobile will give themselves up for Jan this year. Last year it seemed they were not clear what was their team objective.

Is Leipheimer in the Giro de Italia? If not, he may be planning a serious charge this year in the TDF.

Cadel Evans is my dark horse candidate.

Rasmussen being allowed out of anyone's sight? It's possible because no one will worry about him for the TTs but top ten? No chance.

Rasmussen's top goal has to be KOM, with a stage win secondary. If he's smart, he'll dump some time early, so he can get away on a mountain stage and rack up KOM points. That strategy always worked for Virenque.

Basso, Ullrich, Valverde in that order. 4th Salvodelli (sp), 5th Evans, 6th Vino, 7th Levi, 8th, Landis, 9th Papo, 10th Hincappi.

I think it'll be Basso, Ullrich and Vino. But I wouldn't be surprised at an Iban Mayo reprise.

I would, along with several million other people.

Julich and Voight are getting up there in age, and it really depends how much energy they expend for Basso to how high of a podium spot they get. I see at least 3 CSC riders in top 15.

If I was CSC I would let Landis or Ulrich take the yellowin the first 12 days This will save all of the teams strength in the earlier stages, letting Phonak and other teams chase down breaks. This will give Basso well rested domestiques in the mountain stages.

Nice idea, but it's Basso's race to lose. Pressure's on HIM. I think this places Phonak/Landis in a great position: no REAL expectations; he can shadow Basso and let CSC work to control the field, then choose his moment (one of the ITTs). And don't underestimate Phonak's efforts this year -- that's a team made up of workers, with the exception of maybe Botero. Look at CSC -- They're strong, but they're race-winners and GC guys.

I like Landis's chances.

FEAR THE BARBER!

Basso, Ullrich, Valverde in that order. 4th Salvodelli (sp), 5th Evans, 6th Vino, 7th Levi, 8th, Landis, 9th Papo, 10th Hincappi.

Levi over Landis? Is the man stil alive? I haven't heard anything about him since Sea Otter

Levi over Landis? Is the man stil alive? I haven't heard anything about him since Sea Otter

I have to pick Levi over Landis due to certain wager with Veloduo. I will say right here and right now that if Floyd can repeat this type of form in July I'll be buying Velo some beer in August!

I have to pick Levi over Landis due to certain wager with Veloduo. I will say right here and right now that if Floyd can repeat this type of form in July I'll be buying Velo some beer in August!

Been around bike racing long enough, 2Ro, to start to feel a little bit uneasy about how WELL things have been going. I will say this -- it's a shame Hincapie crashed in P-R, because I'd like to see how he figured in the mix this year. He'll probably ride, but what kind of condition will he be in?

Basso, Landis, Valverde all going really well. Evans coming on form very nicely. Vino and Jan (I guess) and Levi preparing in secret, plus Mancebo and another wild card or two thrown in. How freaking great is this TDF shaping up to be?

FTB!!!

Been around bike racing long enough, 2Ro, to start to feel a little bit uneasy about how WELL things have been going. I will say this -- it's a shame Hincapie crashed in P-R, because I'd like to see how he figured in the mix this year. He'll probably ride, but what kind of condition will he be in?

Basso, Landis, Valverde all going really well. Evans coming on form very nicely. Vino and Jan (I guess) and Levi preparing in secret, plus Mancebo and another wild card or two thrown in. How freaking great is this TDF shaping up to be?

FTB!!!

It's going to be tough for him to hold this form through the end of July. If he can the favorites better not discount him. I hope Levi is preparing in secret otherwise this could be a very long hard July for him.

I picked Basso, Landis, and Vino.....not necessarily in that order, but who knows.

If Cypress or Pizza Man get off their bums and try out for the Disco Team though, we might have a darkhorse contender. Or, we could just start a BikeForums cycling team and enter it in the Tour. How funny would that be.....little Yugos as team cars that can barely make it up the mountain passes, using walkie-talkies instead of the earpieces/mics, riders wrenching their own bikes, sleeping in tents rather than hotels......yeah, that would be great.

I will say this -- it's a shame Hincapie crashed in P-R, because I'd like to see how he figured in the mix this year. He'll probably ride, but what kind of condition will he be in?

Sounds like it was a relatively minor injury, which gave him a good excuse to take a week's rest, months before the start of the Tour. If nothing else, it probably is giving him more motivation to achieve at the Tour.

I think the key this year is that Basso and Ullrich will be heavily marked. And about ten others with decent chances of winning the overall will be nipping at their heals. CSC and T-Mobile can't cover every attack by Floyd and Cadel and Levi and Allejandro and George and Popo and Paulo and Mancebo and Rassmussen and Cunego and Mayo and who-knows-who-else. Odds are, unless Basso and Ullrich end up being as much better as the rest as Lance has been, which I doubt, somebody is going to make it. And at that level, the most aggressive guy is Vino...

The reason I doubt Basso or Ullrich will be that much better than all these other guys is because Lance is gone. Look at the transformation Floyd has gone through. Look at the focus that guys like Vino, Levi, Cadel, George and the rest are putting on the Tour. In previous years, these guys all lined up at the start defeated, hoping for top 10, and thinking about top 5. Not this year. They're all looking not only at the podium, but at the big vacant spot at the top... One thing is for sure: This year's Tour is going to be one hell of a race, and luck will probably be a bigger factor than usual. The anticipation is killing me!

Basso, Valverde, Vinokourov (Vino may be second). My concern with Basso is that Sastre may not be up to the task, and they could use stronger climbers besides Basso. But the team TT should be CSC's.

Rumours have Cunego going to CSC in 07, and that CSC may not be "CSC" much longer.

Surprises might include Leipheimer, Cunego, Schleck and maybe Landis. I doubt Ullrich will finish.
I'm really not impressed with Discovery this year.

I would LIKE to see Ullrich, Evans, Basso. It won't happen, but I AM predicting Ullrich, Basso, Evans.

Basso, Valverde, Vinokourov (Vino may be second). My concern with Basso is that Sastre may not be up to the task, and they could use stronger climbers besides Basso. But the team TT should be CSC's.

Rumours have Cunego going to CSC in 07, and that CSC may not be "CSC" much longer.

Surprises might include Leipheimer, Cunego, Schleck and maybe Landis. I doubt Ullrich will finish.
I'm really not impressed with Discovery this year.


Team time trial? Did they add that at the last minute?... from what I heard they canned it for this year

Team time trial? Did they add that at the last minute?... from what I heard they canned it for this year


There is no TTT in this years Tour, there is one in this years Giro. However if CSC competes in a TTT at the Tour they will most certainly win it! ;)

I never did give my picks;

Basso
Landis
Valverde

in SOME order. I'm pulling for the Barber, of course, but I think this is going to be one HELL of a race...

FEAR THE BARBER!

Ullrich doesn't have a chance, a month of racing is far from enough preparation to be able to be the 3rd, 2nd or 1st rider in the world on a 4-week race!! He's never been in top shape when came July, but this year is even worse than the other years. I say Basso will be this year's winner. He's probably the best climber in the high mountains that's out there, although I'm not quite sure he has the team to stand on the first step of the podium.

However, the Discovery team is pretty much intact for this year with many great riders whose style fit perfectly for the Tour. I'd be very surprised if neither Incapie or Popovych would step at least on the 3rd step. Finaly, I think Liberty Seguros still has a decent team with enough good climbers to carry Vino on the podium. Competing against Ullrich and having the entire team pulling for him will help a lot.
So my guess is : Basso 1st, Hincapie 2nd (Popo doesn't have the experience yet to get on the podium) and Vino on the 3rd step. Can't wait for July to arrive!!

Best climber in the high mountains? I love the guy, but I doubt he is the best in the high mountains...Unless Ullrich drops out, he will place...injury or not...the man is made of german grit. I would be willing to bet disco doesn't hit top 5.

I would LIKE to see Ullrich, Evans, Basso. It won't happen, but I AM predicting Ullrich, Basso, Evans.

Same order here. I was amazed by Evans' time trial at Romandie. God, I hope he isn't...uh...you know... starts with a 'd'... and could end with an 'oh' if he is. I was impressed by his ability to hang in there on the mountainous stages as well. Sure, he can't win those finishing sprints, but he isn't aiming for the green jersey.

Can't discount Vino though. Geez, this is tough. Can I pick an alternate squad? Say, Valverde, Vino, and Levi...'V-Mobile'.

Nice idea, but it's Basso's race to lose. Pressure's on HIM. I think this places Phonak/Landis in a great position: no REAL expectations; he can shadow Basso and let CSC work to control the field, then choose his moment (one of the ITTs). And don't underestimate Phonak's efforts this year -- that's a team made up of workers, with the exception of maybe Botero. Look at CSC -- They're strong, but they're race-winners and GC guys.

I like Landis's chances.

FEAR THE BARBER!
LMAO edit - that is LMAO about the picture!

I picked Basso, Landis, and Vino.....not necessarily in that order, but who knows.

If Cypress or Pizza Man get off their bums and try out for the Disco Team though, we might have a darkhorse contender. Or, we could just start a BikeForums cycling team and enter it in the Tour. How funny would that be.....little Yugos as team cars that can barely make it up the mountain passes, using walkie-talkies instead of the earpieces/mics, riders wrenching their own bikes, sleeping in tents rather than hotels......yeah, that would be great.

...arguing about whether this guy or that guy got a better deal on his shiznet, about whose wife/girlfriend/sister is hotter, sending one guy back to the Yugo for the chocolate milk, trying to keep the chocolate milk from spoiling in a Coleman cooler in a Yugo on Mt. Ventoux...in July, etc., etc., etc.

...arguing about whether this guy or that guy got a better deal on his shiznet, about whose wife/girlfriend/sister is hotter, sending one guy back to the Yugo for the chocolate milk, trying to keep the chocolate milk from spoiling in a Coleman cooler in a Yugo on Mt. Ventoux...in July, etc., etc., etc.

There would be a certian BF'er asking all the Euro pro's really insightfull questions like, 'who makes the best bar tape?' or 'what color is your favorite bike?'

I picked Basso, Landis, and Vino.....not necessarily in that order, but who knows.

If Cypress or Pizza Man get off their bums and try out for the Disco Team though, we might have a darkhorse contender. Or, we could just start a BikeForums cycling team and enter it in the Tour. How funny would that be.....little Yugos as team cars that can barely make it up the mountain passes, using walkie-talkies instead of the earpieces/mics, riders wrenching their own bikes, sleeping in tents rather than hotels......yeah, that would be great.


If everyone collects some cash and sends me there, I will use my endorsement checks to have the screen names of everyone that contributed tattoo'd on my back.

Seriously.

...arguing about whether this guy or that guy got a better deal on his shiznet, about whose wife/girlfriend/sister is hotter, sending one guy back to the Yugo for the chocolate milk, trying to keep the chocolate milk from spoiling in a Coleman cooler in a Yugo on Mt. Ventoux...in July, etc., etc., etc.

It'll be the cycling version of the Bad News Bears....

If everyone collects some cash and sends me there, I will use my endorsement checks to have the screen names of everyone that contributed tattoo'd on my back.

Seriously.

If I hit Powerball Saturday, I'll put something together.

Man my head is starting to hurt.

If I hit Powerball Saturday, I'll put something together.

Man my head is starting to hurt.


"I'm a little concussed" -Johnny Knoxville

Rasmussen's top goal has to be KOM, with a stage win secondary. If he's smart, he'll dump some time early, so he can get away on a mountain stage and rack up KOM points. That strategy always worked for Virenque.

As long as there are time trials before the mountain stages, he'll be well positioned to pull this off. :D