China Bicycles

[gwd]

Here is a story about someone in the chinese government being concerned that
china is building too many roads and no longer accomadating bicyclists.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/5082194.stm

The gist of the article is in this quote:

"China's Vice-Construction Minister Qiu Baoxing says the cyclist is losing out with many cities cutting back on bicycle lanes in order to make room for more cars.

He said China should remain what he called the kingdom of bicycles.

His comments come after the release of a World Bank report calling on China to develop its public transport system rather than just build more roads for cars."

[jeff-o]

Ehh, eventually the price of gas will rise to the point that many people switch back to bikes anyway. In the meantime, this influx of cars will mean that lots of nice, smooth roads will be built or upgraded!

[Nightshade]

The Chinese government see that to many cars and to much suburbia
is bad news so they are putting on the brakes on mass western style
consumerism now while they can get a handle on it.

Not so in America. :( America would rather fight a war for more oil than
fix the problem. :mad:

You can look for the Chinese gov't to put some very sharp teeth in the effort to
reduce car count if the people Chinese people don't take the hint.

[Artkansas]

Ehh, eventually the price of gas will rise to the point that many people switch back to bikes anyway. In the meantime, this influx of cars will mean that lots of nice, smooth roads will be built or upgraded!


Ah, but will these new roads be built to accomodate both bikes and cars? We can only hope. China has a long history of forgetting about the little people. From the OP's posting, it sounds like bike lanes are being trashed to make car lanes which is about what I would expect.

[LandLuger]

You're being too generous; how about, "crushing the little people under the treads of the party juggernaut in the name of money--oops, I mean the common good."

Ah, but will these new roads be built to accomodate both bikes and cars? We can only hope. China has a long history of forgetting about the little people. From the OP's posting, it sounds like bike lanes are being trashed to make car lanes which is about what I would expect.

[World Tour]

So if the war's for oil, how come the price of gas is so high?

[adgrant]

The Chinese government see that to many cars and to much suburbia
is bad news so they are putting on the brakes on mass western style
consumerism now while they can get a handle on it.

Not so in America. :( America would rather fight a war for more oil than
fix the problem. :mad:

You can look for the Chinese gov't to put some very sharp teeth in the effort to
reduce car count if the people Chinese people don't take the hint.

The wonderful chinese government is subsidizing the price of gasoline. That's hardly "putting on the brakes on mass western style consumerism". Not that there is anything uniquely western about mass consumerism. Any country where the masses have money has mass consumerism.

[jeff-o]

The war is for cheap oil, and continued access to it. When/if stability is ever restored to the middle east, prices will drop. However, it's only a matter of time before those resources are depleted as well.

Prices are also up because of demand; mostly from China and India. As residents in those countries gain wealth and buy more cars, competition for oil will increase. Competition for resources raises the price.

[LandLuger]

I don't use that argument because it can be torn apart too easily. It is the height of naivety to say that oil doesn't factor into our continuing interests in the ME. The only room for debate is how high on the list do you place it.


So if the war's for oil, how come the price of gas is so high?

[Dahon.Steve]

"China's Vice-Construction Minister Qiu Baoxing says the cyclist is losing out with many cities cutting back on bicycle lanes in order to make room for more cars.

He said China should remain what he called the kingdom of bicycles.

His comments come after the release of a World Bank report calling on China to develop its public transport system rather than just build more roads for cars."

They're not cutting back but eliminating bike lanes completely.

[Don Johnson]

The war is for cheap oil, and continued access to it. When/if stability is ever restored to the middle east, prices will drop. However, it's only a matter of time before those resources are depleted as well.

Prices are also up because of demand; mostly from China and India. As residents in those countries gain wealth and buy more cars, competition for oil will increase. Competition for resources raises the price.

Contrary to popular belief, oil is not in short supply. The global dilemma is that there is a huge bottleneck surrounding the refining process, there is an increased demand for refined product and new, modern refinieries are not coming on-line fast enough to compensate for the increase in demand. I am not arguing whether we've reached peak oil or not; all I'm saying is that there is a good supply of raw crude. Some folks don't realize that there are different grades of crude oil (sweet, sour, heavy, light) and not all refineries have the capacity to refine the worst of the grades economically.

In my opinion, the war is not so much a battle for inexpensive oil as it is for control of it thereby making it easier to manipulate the economies of the end-users (China, Taiwan, India, etc.). All things considered, the oil companies must love the higher prices as it really boosts their profits and keeps their shareholders fat and happy. I doubt we'll ever see the price go down even if we drill domestically. In contrast, there is speculation that the price per barrel could approach $100 by the end of the summer.

This is going to be an interesting thread to follow.

[yes]

Contrary to popular belief, oil is not in short supply.

In contrast, there is speculation that the price per barrel could approach $100 by the end of the summer

Umm, if the price of crude is expected to be about 10 times as high as it was 10 years ago, how can you say that it is not in short supply.

[Don Johnson]

Umm, if the price of crude is expected to be about 10 times as high as it was 10 years ago, how can you say that it is not in short supply.

Because there's more of a global demand for both raw crude and especially the finished distillates than there was 10 years ago. Raw crude, so I have read, is still plentiful. I am not saying that the supply of raw crude is not diminishing, just that the supply at the moment is adequate. With that said though, one of the main problems is that overall, although raw crude is in good supply, the most easily distilled crude is not. This, as I have come to understand it, is the driving force behind the price. As I mentioned previously, not all crude is created equal. There is heavy, sweet, light and sour. Light, sweet crude is the most desireable but heavy, sour (Saudi) is in greater supply. So, a result of having more buyers in the market and having the most desireable product in smaller quantities than other similar products are why I believe the price being driven to the levels we are presently realizing and will probably continue to experience.

I am not claiming to be the end-all expert on these matters and I hope someone with more knowledge of the oil indsutry and its economics will correct me if I am wrong. My only intention was to point out that the global oil industry is a bit more complex than some would like to have us believe.

[mtnroads]

There is some good reading on this subject:

The End of Oil - Roberts
Beyond Oil - Deffeyes
Twilight in the Desert - Simmons

I have read all three but Simmons' book is the best, imho. Simmons is an investment advisor, specializing in the petroleum industry. He spent a year (in 2004) so analyzing the technical papers from the Society of Petroleum Engineers that detail the problems being encountered recently in the Saudi oil fields, which are maturing rapidly and beginning to decline. He did this because Saudi officials do not make public the status of their reserves, other than to insist that all is well (no pun intended).

The fact is, the giant Saudi fields are in decline. They have been pumping from 7 major fields for 50 years, and the three giants (including the big daddy of them all - Ghawar) are becoming exhausted. As a result they are pumping millions of gallons of seawater into them daily to keep them producing, and any further production increases are virtually out of the question, because when you pump too fast, you damage the field permanently.

Soviet oil field are in serious decline because they overpumped them in the 1980's and exaggerated the quantitiy they had to begin with. The North Sea is way past it's peak and dropping rapidly. Prudhoe Bay is down to less than 1/3rd of it's original production and even that is partly from adjacent fields. Iran's oil fields peaked in the 1970's and they now produce very little, and what comes out is sour (high sulfur).

Is there still oil in the ground? - of course, since we are in all probablility just now reaching the worldwide peak, there is by implication as much left as we have pumped to date. The problem is, as Don mentioned, it is the half that is much harder to get and not as easily refined. A lot of what is left is the last 25-35% of the giant fields and will be very difficult and costly to extract. There are also many smaller fields, such as those in Nigeria, Venezuela, etc. that once again, are more expensive to operate and tightly controlled. You may have noticed that most oil producing countruies have nationalized their fields now and we will have to pay dearly for the oil. Add to this the fact that worldwide demand is increasing at 1-2% annually and you can see why prices aren't going to be dropping significantly any time soon.

Politically, we see all the major industrial powers jockeying for access to the remaining reserves - China and India are making serious deals with every producing nation that they can, one reason that they haven't been willing to join the US in sanctions against Iran. And while they each still use only 6 mil bpd, and we use over 20, wait until another 5-10 years down the road. Scary. Unfortunately, we have set a terrible example that all countries want to follow. And since we still can't control our own appetite for the stuff, there will be few in those countries who will listen when we ask them to conserve.

[mtnroads]

Oops - didn't mean to get so carried away with the oil post. As far as the biking goes, when I was in Beijing in 1998 the roads were still mostly bikes, with a lane or two of cars. Now the cars are squeezing out bikes and those who do still ride a bike feel imperiled, not to mention breathing the horribly polluted air. So now, they feel they have to buy a car to feel safe, so unfortunately, the trend gets worse.

And then there is the social stigma - in societies where a middle class emerges, people quickly start to compare their status with others - you can imagine the desire to achieve some individuality must be really powerful in a country where everyone had basically the same status and material goods as everyone else for so long. Can't blame them for wanting to succeed.