Professional Cycling For the Fans - TDF top 10 forum competition

OK so I am doing my top 10 picks again and challenging all comers. You can only make a change once posted if a rider can't start. Points will be assigned for each pick....1st place 10 pts, 2nd place 9 pts, etc.
Add that score to the total # of correct picks in the top 10 times 2...6 of 10 = 12 points plus points allocated for each correct placing is your total score, good luck. I will tell you this....I'm not nearly as confident this year ....except for 1st place....Der Jan, so here goes.

Ullrich
Landis
Basso
Evans
Leipheimer
Mancebo
Vino
Hincapie
Gil
Azevedo

DocRay...I bet I beat ya!

1) The Widowmaker
2) Basso
3) Mancebo
4) Valverde
5) Leipheimer
6) Vino
7) Landis
8) Evans
9) Totschnig
10) Rasmussen

Basso
Ulrich
Levi
Landis
Evans
Valverde
Mancebo
Vino
Rasmussen
Horner

Basso
Uhlrich
Valverde
Vino
Landis
Lepheimer
Evans
Popovych
Mancebo
Hincapie.

(not that I think that both Hincapie and Popovch will finish top ten, but somebody from discovery will. With my luck it will be Azevedo).

EDIT, its 4:00 EDT June 30, 2006. Time to revise:

1)Landis
2)Lepheimer
3)Valverde
4)Evans
5)Savoldelli
6) Sastre
7)Mayo
8) Moreau
9)Menchov
10) Azevedo

1. Basso (out) Eddie Merckx!
2. Landis
3. Jan (out) Eddie Merckx!
4. Valverde
5. Mancebo (out) Eddie Merckx!
6. Kloden
7. Levi
8. Evans
9. Popovych
10. Rasmussen

For real??? if they let Vino ride, here is the new top 5.

1. Vino
2. Landis
3. Kloden
4. Valverde
5. Hincapie

That's for the points. My darkhorse to shock the world is Valverde. IMO the only thing that stops Basso is injury or crash. OR A DRUG PROBE THIS TOTALLY SUCKS

Ullrich
Basso(its a basso and ullrich battle, thats all there is to it)
Landis
Hincapie
Valverde
Popo
Vino

Thats as far as i care to guess.

1. Ulrich (out)
2. Basso (out)
3. Vino (out)
4. Landis
5. Levi
6. Valverde
7. Kloden
8. Mancebo (out)
9. Rasmussen
10. Hincapie

Edit 6/30/06: No point making a new list until this whole thing clears...... Right now I'm saying 1.Landis 2. Valverde 3.Levi 4. Hincapie

1. XXXX
2. Landis
3. XXXX
4. Leipheimer
5. Vino
6. Valverde
7. Popovych
8. Evans
9. Hincapie
10. XXXX

I'm not going to name replacements until this whole day shakes down and we see who else is sacked.

1. Ullrich
2. Landis
3. Basso
4. Leipheimer
5. Vino
6. Valverde
7. Popovych
8. Evans
9. Hincapie
10. Menchov

Of course, I really have no idea. I just threw in Mencho to have someone different. There's always someone unexpected in the top 10 eh?Menchov won the 2005 Vuelta. Would the winner of the Vuelta be "unexpected" to finish in the top ten of the TDF? Well, I guess the Vuelta is a small race by comparison. Obviously some people have never even heard of it.;)

I'll take:
1) der soul crusher for the top step of the podium in Paris
2) elisa the wonder woman on the second step
3) chased down by some vino on the third step
followed by:
4) leipheimer
5) mancebo
6) landis
7) menchov
8) sastre
9) azevedo
10) evans

Basso
Landis
Valverde
Ullrich
Mancebo
Leipheimer
Azevedo
Moreau
Sastre
Hincapie

Hey, can anybody recommend a good Spanish doctor?

:p

1) Lance Armstrong
2-10) Jan Ullrich
:( looks like it's going to be another humdrum TdF.

If this Spanish Doping Affair gets any wider we might not have any of the top ten favorites in the Tour. Boonen might end up winning just because he's the last strong man in the race!

The new Tour podium:

Boonen
Zabel
McEwen

Basso
Ullrich
Valverde
Evans
Hincapie
Landis
Rasmussen
Vino
Leipheimer
Sastre

1. Der Crusher of Souls
2. Basso
3. Valverde
4. Mancebo
5. Vino
6. Landis
7. Levi
8. Christophe Moreau
9. The Klodi
10. Oscar Pereiro

1. Basso
2. Ullrich
3. Hincapie
4. Evans
5. Landis
6. Valverde
7. Leipheimer
8. Vino
9. Zabriskie
10. Moreau

Basso
Rasmussen (without hiccups on stage 19)
Ullrich
Landis
Vino
Leipheimer
Kloden
Evans
Mancebo
Popovych

Ullrich [edit: out]
Basso[edit: out]
1. Landis
2. Leipheimer
Vinokurov [edit: out. damn it!]
3. Evans
4. Valverde
5. Hincapie
6. Julich [edit - replacement for disgraced rider above]
7. Menchov
8. Mayo
9. DiLuca [edit - replacement pick for disgraced rider above]
10. Cunego [edit - replacement pick for Vino, who just got plain screwed]

. You can only make a change once posted if a rider can't start.

Looks like this is going to be an important caveot.

Menchov won the 2005 Vuelta. Would the winner of the Vuelta be "unexpected" to finish in the top ten of the TDF? Well, I guess the Vuelta is a small race by comparison. Obviously some people have never even heard of it.;)


Menchov is a teammate of Rasmussen, so many see Rasmussen's performance last year as an indication he'll be protected by Rabobank.

I put Menchov in the top ten, as I don't think the peloton will be letting The Chicken away in any breaks where climbs are involved. And who knows how much time Rasmussen could lose in the long TT's... here's hoping he stays on the bike!

With regards to Rasmussen, he is of course someone that can't be counted out, but this is a time trialer's TDF, and if recent results say anything, Michael is in for a long Tour.

The Chicken and Der Soul Crusher went into the Giro purely as preparation for the TDF, and Michael stayed in until stage 12, primarily so he could test himself on the 50k Stage 11 ITT. He has spent a significant portion of his preparation for this years TDF attempting to rectify any insufficiencies that came to light in last years TT debacle. Wind tunnel testing, velodrome training, and special time trial work have all been a significant part of his work regimen.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2006/giro06/?id=/features/2006/rabobank_giro

The Giro TT was to be a preliminary test to see if his homework has paid off. Mind you, he and Ullrich have had a similar amount of racing this year, but Rasmussen has not been injured, so theoretically, he should have been ready for this day. He finished close to 7 minutes back of Ullrich, who of course crushed der souls of all comers, including the surgically enhanced Elisa.

The TDF has two, count 'em, 2, too, to, of these long time trials. Unless Rasmussen does some major turn around, I can't see him in the top ten this year. He may win the polka dots, and he may win a stage, but this will be a tough TDF for him.

When I picked the top ten, I left out anyone who didn't have fairly well developed TT skills. Valverde is still developing in this area, which is why I left him out of the top ten. Cadel's skills may carry him higher than tenth. Menchov has recently won the Ventoux stage in the Dauphine, as pointed out earlier, he is a winner in the Vuelta, Rabobank hired him specifically to be their GC guy in the Grand Tours, and he can time trial adequately, if not spectacularly. He should hold his own quite nicely. But then, that is expected.;)

Ulrich
Landis
Basso
Valverde
Leipheimer
Vinokurov
Hincapie
Evans
Menchov
Popovych

Basso
Ulrich
Landis
Hincapie
Levi
Kloden
Valverde
Sastre
Mancebo
Menchov

With regards to Rasmussen, he is of course someone that can't be counted out, but this is a time trialer's TDF, and if recent results say anything, Michael is in for a long Tour.

The Chicken and Der Soul Crusher went into the Giro purely as preparation for the TDF, and Michael stayed in until stage 12, primarily so he could test himself on the 50k Stage 11 ITT. He has spent a significant portion of his preparation for this years TDF attempting to rectify any insufficiencies that came to light in last years TT debacle. Wind tunnel testing, velodrome training, and special time trial work have all been a significant part of his work regimen.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2006/giro06/?id=/features/2006/rabobank_giro

The Giro TT was to be a preliminary test to see if his homework has paid off. Mind you, he and Ullrich have had a similar amount of racing this year, but Rasmussen has not been injured, so theoretically, he should have been ready for this day. He finished close to 7 minutes back of Ullrich, who of course crushed der souls of all comers, including the surgically enhanced Elisa.

The TDF has two, count 'em, 2, too, to, of these long time trials. Unless Rasmussen does some major turn around, I can't see him in the top ten this year. He may win the polka dots, and he may win a stage, but this will be a tough TDF for him.

When I picked the top ten, I left out anyone who didn't have fairly well developed TT skills. Valverde is still developing in this area, which is why I left him out of the top ten. Cadel's skills may carry him higher than tenth. Menchov has recently won the Ventoux stage in the Dauphine, as pointed out earlier, he is a winner in the Vuelta, Rabobank hired him specifically to be their GC guy in the Grand Tours, and he can time trial adequately, if not spectacularly. He should hold his own quite nicely. But then, that is expected.;)


I agree with the comments re: Der Chicken. This is also why I left Valverde off my list despite my belief in his abilities overall. Unfortunately I am also getting ready to have to "scratch" Vino. Man what a shame with him only being on the team one year. Since I believe anyone is most likely doping...especially the good riders it seems horrible that the winner could be he who doesn't get caught. I can see the Dr's shredding records and eliminating evidence at various locations. I know a younger rider trying to break through in the U S riding for a 2nd level team. Has had good results at many races finishing with Schleck, Julich, etc...I wonder the pressure and exposure...how to be competitive when fighting to achieve your dream and you always have to wonder, maybe assume the guys riding with you are on PEDs.

We will know something may change when we see a few riders come clean without being caught...doing it on their own. When we see riders confessing and getting slammed by other riders en mass the drug culture still exists.

Basso
Vinokourov
Ullrich
Hincapie
Landis
Evans
Leipheimer
Menchov
Valverde
Mancebo

Jan
Basso
Savoldelli
Valverde
Landis
Vino
Leipheimer
Rasmussen
Mancebo
Evans

Jan
Basso
Savoldelli
Valverde
Landis
Vino
Leipheimer
Rasmussen
Mancebo
Evans

The inclusion of Savoldelli is interesting to me. I felt like the Tour route favored him more than the Giro and I felt like the whole team wasn't really putting in their best effort at the Giro. Could he have used it as training once he had that bad day due to allergies? You don't hear Johann or any of them mention him when they talk about their possible leader, but maybe its a ploy?

Cadel Evans is fairly motoring at the moment, plus his collarbone is in one piece. If it stays that way he will easily be there with the big hitters in the mountains. He can TT too, unlike the Chicken.

The inclusion of Savoldelli is interesting to me. I felt like the Tour route favored him more than the Giro and I felt like the whole team wasn't really putting in their best effort at the Giro. Could he have used it as training once he had that bad day due to allergies? You don't hear Johann or any of them mention him when they talk about their possible leader, but maybe its a ploy?

Johann's got a lot of decision making potential with the Disco team. The scuttle's been all about George and Popo and Paolo, but the first name Lance mentioned on Charlie Rose the other night was Azevedo, as he once finished as high as 4th in the tour.

Brunyeel loves the mind games. The luxury he has of making other teams figure out who the leader will be is part of the strategy. Plus, it leaves lots of stuff for us to speculate out on the internet.

I have been wondering from the start if leaving Paolo off my top 10 was my biggest mistake. I chose George just because I hope he does well and Azevedo because he is so consistent over the years. Imagine if Paolo could pull off the TDF victory....wow

To quote Hinault: "Tenth place? Who remembers 10th place? NOBODY!!!"

Podium:
Basso
Landis
Hincapie

...if Vino is allowed to race, he'll win the whole shebang by 4 hours.

Ullrich will DNF by stage 13. Zabriskie will get hit by lightning...or a meteor. Savoldelli will careen off a mountain, but will still finish the race. Leipheimer will lose 3 minutes in the Prologue and be out of the running. Popovich will shack up with a Belgian chick and miss the start time...losing 2 hours to the leaders.

This may be the most difficult Tour to "pick" in a decade. Because I don't have a clue who THIS year's "surprise" winner will be, I'll go with the safe picks. But, I don't have much confidence in being even close to correct.

Out. Basso
1. Kloden
2. Leipheimer
Out. Ullrich
3. Popovich
4. Menchov
5. Mayo
8. Landis
9. Salvodelli
Out. Mancebo

If even five of my ten picks are in the actual top ten in Paris, I'll be shocked. This year will not be predictable, which means it won't be boring either.

Edit: as of June 30th, it seems three or more guys on my original list will be barred from riding. So, I'll stick with the same list, with each remaining rider moving up to the vacant spot(s) above him in the list.

The inclusion of Savoldelli is interesting to me. I felt like the Tour route favored him more than the Giro and I felt like the whole team wasn't really putting in their best effort at the Giro. Could he have used it as training once he had that bad day due to allergies? You don't hear Johann or any of them mention him when they talk about their possible leader, but maybe its a ploy?

I read a quote from Johann a while back where he said that Savoldelli is actually better suited for the Tour than the Giro. I'm sure his bad performance in the Giro has him motivated, and there are a few downhill sections where he could gain a little time if things are tight in the top 5 or so. More than anything, though, I'm just a fan of Il Falco and everybody needs a sleeper in a competition like this. If I had to put real money on it I'd go Basso, Ullrich, then Landis.

1. LEVI
2. (edit Basso pulled) Landis
3. Kloden
4. (edit Ullrich pulled) Vinokourov
5. Cunego
6. Rasmussen
7. Evans
8. (edit Mancebo pulled) Popovych
9. Botero
10. Moreau

And as for alanbikehouston's comments on posting a "serious list" with Basso as the winner, I think with recent events it just goes to show Levi is the real deal for this years tour, making this list as serious as Walter Cronkite at a war memorial.

Basso
Ullrich
Vinokurov
Evans
Leipheimer
Mancebo
Landis
Valverde
Azevedo
Kloden

Once you get pass the top 5 there's so many who could easily make to top 10, but I'll stick wit dis!

Well, the majority of folks who have posted a "serious" list have picked Basso to win. Based on the past success rate of Forum members in picking a winner whose name is not spelled "Armstrong": Basso is doomed.

Ullrich
Basso
Landis
Vino
Leipheimer
Mancebo
Valverde
Menchov
Evans
Savoldelli

Ullrich
Basso
Evans
Savoldelli
Popovych
Hincapie
and why not throw in Michael Rogers for giggles...

Johann's got a lot of decision making potential with the Disco team. The scuttle's been all about George and Popo and Paolo, but the first name Lance mentioned on Charlie Rose the other night was Azevedo, as he once finished as high as 4th in the tour.

Brunyeel loves the mind games. The luxury he has of making other teams figure out who the leader will be is part of the strategy. Plus, it leaves lots of stuff for us to speculate out on the internet.
I think he might have all of them trying to get into various breaks, hoping that one of them will get 10+ minutes on the main contenders. Then they all work together to protect that lead, whoever happens to get it.

With regards to Rasmussen, he is of course someone that can't be counted out, but this is a time trialer's TDF, and if recent results say anything, Michael is in for a long Tour.

The Chicken and Der Soul Crusher went into the Giro purely as preparation for the TDF, and Michael stayed in until stage 12, primarily so he could test himself on the 50k Stage 11 ITT. He has spent a significant portion of his preparation for this years TDF attempting to rectify any insufficiencies that came to light in last years TT debacle. Wind tunnel testing, velodrome training, and special time trial work have all been a significant part of his work regimen.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2006/giro06/?id=/features/2006/rabobank_giro

The Giro TT was to be a preliminary test to see if his homework has paid off. Mind you, he and Ullrich have had a similar amount of racing this year, but Rasmussen has not been injured, so theoretically, he should have been ready for this day. He finished close to 7 minutes back of Ullrich, who of course crushed der souls of all comers, including the surgically enhanced Elisa.

The TDF has two, count 'em, 2, too, to, of these long time trials. Unless Rasmussen does some major turn around, I can't see him in the top ten this year. He may win the polka dots, and he may win a stage, but this will be a tough TDF for him.

When I picked the top ten, I left out anyone who didn't have fairly well developed TT skills. Valverde is still developing in this area, which is why I left him out of the top ten. Cadel's skills may carry him higher than tenth. Menchov has recently won the Ventoux stage in the Dauphine, as pointed out earlier, he is a winner in the Vuelta, Rabobank hired him specifically to be their GC guy in the Grand Tours, and he can time trial adequately, if not spectacularly. He should hold his own quite nicely. But then, that is expected.;)

Too strong in the mountains to rule Rassmussen out of the top ten. Gotta agree with your reasonning why he won't podium on the GC. He looks good in dots.

Time to change your lists, guys.

Time to change your lists, guys.

1) larry
2) moe
3) curly
4) shemp

Well, one thing is for certain this will be one of the darkest tours in a long time. I don't even know how to feel right now. I'll update the rest of my picks when they finish firing people from this report.

I think he might have all of them trying to get into various breaks, hoping that one of them will get 10+ minutes on the main contenders. Then they all work together to protect that lead, whoever happens to get it.

Unless they take the race radios away and Hincapie dons a pair of Oakley M frames for a day, ain't nobody from Discovery but Benjamin Noval going to get into a break that gets beyond the next turn in the road....

I was going to update my picks, but it may still be a while before we know whether Vino's really in.

jeez, this is crazy....
if vino is still riding then
1.Vino
2.Evans

Hincapie
Landis
Popovich
Leipheimer
Evans
Horner
Cunego
Valverde
Rasmussen
Boonen

What a mess!

Boonen? Come on, he needs a triple to get through the mountains!

Well, maybe not, but he's still a sprinter, not a climber, & only climbers who can also TT can win the Tour.

Kloden
Jullich
Valverde
Moreau
Leipheimer
Landis
Rasmussen
Azevedo
Cunego
Evans

The Jan & Basso had the strongest teams. Their number 2's will rise to the top.

Landis
Levi
George
Evans

whatever....wind somewhat out of my sail now.....

jeez, this is crazy....
if vino is still riding then
1.Vino
2.Evans

......speechless, just speechless....what's next?