Stage 3: Esch-sur-Alzette - Valkenburg (Netherlands), 216 km

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I'm picking Valverde to win this.

I'm picking Valverde to win this.

Seeing as he's said he wants to win... seems like a good pick. How about a guy like Frank Schleck who's not in it for the GC? I suppose "Balaverde" could do with some time bonuses for an early maillot jaune, though...

Hey where are the stage maps?

Boogerd on home soil.....

But realistically I reckon Oscar Freire will do it

Seeing as he's said he wants to win... seems like a good pick. How about a guy like Frank Schleck who's not in it for the GC? I suppose "Balaverde" could do with some time bonuses for an early maillot jaune, though...

Schleck not really recovered yet from broken nose 2 weeks ago. He had to take liquid food for 3 days, and antibiotics. According to himself he'll need another 6 to 8 days to be fully fit (just in time for the mountains ). Although main man in CSC Sastre at moment, Schleck could become the surprise if he doesn't lose too much time in the first TT.

For Valkenburg I think Valverde will stay put. He is a definite hope for GC this year. Why waste his time in Valkenburg.

My guess is Boogerd. He's the home man, whole Rabobank will work for him, he knows the streets by heart, and he must be the guy with most podiums in the Amstel. But this will be possible only if

1) he is in a good break 20 kms from the end
2) there is no breakwith over 5 mins 20 kms from the finish

Not sure that today sprinters' teams will be fighting a lot for closing on breaking riders, as I do not believe in a sprinter's victory (although Hushovd has proven to be a pretty good climber ).

Why waste his time in Valkenburg.
For a stage win? Just because a rider is going for the GC doesn't mean they have to forego trying to win stages that do little for their GC aspirations. That may be the Armstrong model (which I don't really have a problem with), but some guys just like to win.

Besides, he said he wanted to win this stage.

For a stage win? Just because a rider is going for the GC doesn't mean they have to forego trying to win stages that do little for their GC aspirations. That may be the Armstrong model (which I don't really have a problem with), but some guys just like to win.

Besides, he said he wanted to win this stage.

If he said he wanted to win here, then forget what I said. It's just that it is common for any real Tour contender to not mix in early stage wins, as there the peloton is still very nervous, and the crash risks are bigger. I have been wrong before, but

1) if Valverde waits for the last climb (Cauberg) to put his attack, there will be at least 10 guys countering him, because they are still fresh and watching HIM (and maybe putting all efforts on this particular stage)

2) if Valverde is in an early break, he'll have to work like a madman, and that will hurt in the later stages.

Tour stage win for Valverde? Yes, but in Pla de Beret or Alpe d'Huez, not Valkenburg.

BUT, as I said, I have been wrong before ;)

I cant wait for todays stage. ... thor looked great today even with a few stiches. I was amazed he made that first sprint with tom

If I'm not totally mistaken, Thor once took a U-23 world championship in time trial in Valkenburg. He's in terrific form these days despite his cut, and mad for not being first yesterday, so who knows...

If I'm not totally mistaken, Thor once took a U-23 world championship in time trial in Valkenburg. He's in terrific form these days despite his cut, and mad for not being first yesterday, so who knows...
A good ride in the Prolouge but he wont win a stage! There's no way he's faster than Mcewan or Boonen in the sprint.

given the climbs I don't think it's going to be a sprint finish.
I think this one is where a break survives.

marty

given the climbs I don't think it's going to be a sprint finish.
I think this one is where a break survives.

marty
+1 Marty but give us a name...?

given the climbs I don't think it's going to be a sprint finish.
I think this one is where a break survives.

marty

Totally agree. If no break, forget Boonen, Casper and Mc Ewen ( I'm sure you'll punish me if I'm wrong :D ) , but IF 2 sprinters then

1) Hushovd (very strong in hills)
2) O'Grady (who did a lot of work for mountain stages this year)
3) Zabel (don't forget the old man, one of the only sprinters to always FINISH the Tour)

boogerd. who else?

I'm picking Valverde to win this.

Me too. The finish is perfect for him. If Bettini were there, I'd give it to him. Live blogging here (http://www.adirondackbasecamp.com/2006/07/tour-de-france-stage-3/).

Well, so much for Valverde. Damn.

YEP, valverde down and out... broken collerbone :(

I'm picking Valverde to win this.


Bye bye Valverde for the stage win AND the Tour...shame!:(

Matthias Kessler takes the win after a timly attack on the last climb of the day. Sweet victory after his heartbreaking loss yesterday after a long breakaway.

1. Matthias Kessler (G), T-Mobile
2. Michael Rogers (Aus), T-Mobile, 00:05
3. Daniele Bennati (I), Lampre, 00:05
4. Tom Boonen (B), Quick Step-Innergetic, 00:05
5. Erik Zabel (G), Milram, 00:05
6. Luca Paolini (I), Liquigas-Bianchi, 00:05
7. Oscar Freire (Sp), Rabobank, 00:05
8. Eddy Mazzoleni (I), T-Mobile, 00:05
9. Georg Totschnig (A), Gerolsteiner, 00:05
10. Fabian Wegmann (G), Gerolsteiner, 00:05

Sure didn't see this one coming. . .
anybody know the lowdown on O'Grady?

Wow, this could't set up better for Flandis, Levi and Hincapie. Sucks for Valverde as we'll never know if he could've won or pushed the American contingent.
Now this has a tour of California feel to it.
Could this race lose anymore top GC riders???

Will O'Grady start tomorrow? He looked injured and slow at the finish.

I'm really bummed about Valverde, he was my favorite for the GC. It does look like this could be an all US podium although Evans might have some say in the outcome.

Goddamnit. That really sucks about Valverde...

This was really hard stage on the collar bones...Fast Freddy (likely), Dekkar, and Valverde.

I'm bummed about Valverde too. I thought he was ready to make some noise and I like his style. To lose a shot at the Tour b/c of a bad second in the peloton......

It's still the TdF but it is losing some luster. I hope this doesn't make for a conservative race where the few remaining GC contenders just mark each other.


:beer:

well there is always the green jersey competition although I see that
as coming down to Boonen vs Mc Ewan with Hushovd throwing all caution
to the wind later in the race.

well there is always the green jersey competition although I see that
as coming down to Boonen vs Mc Ewan with Hushovd throwing all caution
to the wind later in the race.

It will be very interesting. Hushovd and Boonen can both hang on the climbs. That's why Boonen ended up in yellow today.

McEwen is looking good but he's got to hang in there for 3 weeks. With Fast Freddy out he's lost a valuable leadout man, but he seems to do pretty well without a big leadout.

It will be very interesting. Hushovd and Boonen can both hang on the climbs. That's why Boonen ended up in yellow today.

McEwen is looking good but he's got to hang in there for 3 weeks. With Fast Freddy out he's lost a valuable leadout man, but he seems to do pretty well without a big leadout.
Yeah, Robbie just finds a way to win. He doesn't really need a leadout man. I think he'll be fine, but my pick is Big Tom for the maillot vert.

just reported on our local news that O'Grady has a fractured vertebrae (hope it's not ture), and is a doubtful starter
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2006/tour06/news/?id=/news/2006/jul06/jul05news2

http://www.team-csc.com/ny_news.asp?n_id=983

Thoracic Vert Fracture but may continue riding

Is there a contending sprinter that actually does need a leadout team? -- or is it, as long as somebody is leading out someone else, there is a wheel to hang on to for everyone?

So far, its looking like Hushovd, Boonen, McEwen are the only real 3 contenders... I think I've seen zabel and ogrady's teams moving to the front supposedly to help them, but not seeing either of those 2 benefiting.

Well I am sure that it really helps to have a lead out rider that you know will pull you up to 200m from the line, and let you go by him. Using another team, they could just grab your wheel and pas you at the end....

As much as I like boonen, I dont think he will last for all the climbing(he is a good rider), just that he only has the GC by 1 second(for now, tommorow is pretty flat). I think this will be a very close year.

so who thinks Matthias Kessler will not wash his lucky shirt :D

WTF, how did "Balaverde" go down? Lack of concentration? It's not like they were going that fast (judging by how few others went down with him). Lance seven in a row grows more remarkable every time a contender goes out with a crash...

It will be very interesting. Hushovd and Boonen can both hang on the climbs. That's why Boonen ended up in yellow today.

McEwen is looking good but he's got to hang in there for 3 weeks. With Fast Freddy out he's lost a valuable leadout man, but he seems to do pretty well without a big leadout.

but Hushovd and Boonen really can't hang on the big mountain passes. Even if they could, they would need someone from their teams to be able to hang on those climbs as well.

the only way i can see Hushovd winning is if he concentrates on the intermediates later in the tour. At the moment, hes not going to out gun Boonen or Robbie.

so who thinks Matthias Kessler will not was his lucky shirt :D

'wear' his lucky shirt right?

Yes, he has got talent and determination, else very often yesterday's winner/big effort finishes 10 mins down the next day. Great win!

'wear' his lucky shirt right?

Yes, he has got talent and determination, else very often yesterday's winner/big effort finishes 10 mins down the next day. Great win!

opps, that was wash. I doubt that shirt would hold up to one though, did you see it ?!?

just reported on our local news that O'Grady has a fractured vertebrae (hope it's not ture), and is a doubtful starter


:(

but remember, Robbie finished a Tour with broken back.

Wow, this could't set up better for Flandis, Levi and Hincapie. Sucks for Valverde as we'll never know if he could've won or pushed the American contingent.
Now this has a tour of California feel to it.
Could this race lose anymore top GC riders???
Evans to smash em all!

"Mountain Bike kid from Melbourne wins tour."

That would make the last seven boring, predictable, unwatchable, monotonous years worth sitting through.

:D

It will be very interesting. Hushovd and Boonen can both hang on the climbs. That's why Boonen ended up in yellow today.

McEwen is looking good but he's got to hang in there for 3 weeks. With Fast Freddy out he's lost a valuable leadout man, but he seems to do pretty well without a big leadout.

I'm assumming that your point is Hushovd and Boonen have an advantage in the Green points competition to the extent they can hang on some hillier stages, they may have more opportunities for sprint points after McEwen's already been dropped. If your point is Hushovd and Boonen can climb well enough to contend for GC, then it's fantasy.

well we've never seen Boonen finish a grand tour yet have we?
(not that he does the Cippo 5 and out, he has been injured etc.)
I have this very strange feeling that he CAN hang in the mountains.
Sure he's not a mountain goat but I think he is looking at a top 25
in GC.

marty

The racing gods were not nice to a few Americans out there yesterday. Looks like Horner got caught up in the Dekker/Rodriguez crash.

And Fast Freddy is out. It will be interesting to see how Mc Ewen responds to loosing his best leadout man.

obviously he did well enough. . .

It will be interesting to see how Mc Ewen responds to loosing his best leadout man.


Vansummeren is worth two Fred Rodriguez.......hugely underated rider.