Stage 10: Cambo-les-Bains - Pau

[Guest]

Stage 10: Cambo-les-Bains - Pau, 193 km

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[Richard Cranium]

This is where the brown stuff hits the fan. DS's will have a hell of a time trying to decide whether an early break is worth an reaction. GC contenders, will NOT be showing any cards......

At least that's my prediction.

[C_Heath]

lol he said brown stuff

[platypus]

With 35 KOM points on offer for the last two climbs, this is where we'll see the real fight for the Maillot a Pois begin.

[reef58]

I think the final descent is too long to put major time in any GC contender here.

Richard

[Laggard]

Bad things happen on the road to Pau.

[acape]

If I'm Savoldelli, I attack on the last climb and then hope to maintain any advantage on the descent.

[adamastor]

If I'm Savoldelli, I attack on the last climb and then hope to maintain any advantage on the descent.

Hmmmm, last climb not tough enough for a first mountain stage (still a lot of heroes around then), then too far away from finish. I see a group of about 10 riders (no GC contenders) start, among them at least 5 or 6 Spaniards. If they start the last climb with 7 minutes ahead of peloton, they'll have a chance. Actually, this would be the ideal stage for a guy like Jens Voigt. And Moreau...heyhey, this is a déja vu. Voigt and Moreau, 2005, chasing Rasmussen, and helping each other. Rasmussen won the stage, Voigt got yeloow jersey, Moreau was happy to become second overall. I even remember one of the 2 (Moreau or Voigt) having a puncture, and the other waiting for him on the flat in the last 50 kilometres. Epic.

[reef58]

I doubt if Moreau is given the opportunity this year. I think it would be a big mistake by the GC guys.

Richard

[blue_neon]

Do see hills :D.

[meb]

I doubt if Moreau is given the opportunity this year. I think it would be a big mistake by the GC guys.

Richard

I think Moreau has a better shot at getting away from the GC contenders during stage 11, so I think he'll hang back on stage 10 to be fresh for 11.

Voigt will be on the break, along with the usual polka dot wantabes: Pineau, De La Fuente, Wemann, Hernandez, Boogerd, Totshing, along with true contendor Rasmussen, Mayo, and Periero if they DO delay their attacks till Thursday.

Thor on the first intermediate sprint.

Edit: The dot contenders WILL be there if delay their attacks till Thursday.

[adamastor]

I think Moreau has a better shot at getting away from the GC contenders during stage 11, so I think he'll hang back on stage 10 to be fresh for 11.

Voigt will be on the break, along with the usual polka dot wantabes: Pineau, De La Fuente, Wemann, Hernandez, Boogerd, Totshing, along with true contendor Rasmussen, Mayo, and Periero if they DO delay their attacks till Thursday.

Thor on the first intermediate sprint.

Edit: The dot contenders WILL be there if delay their attacks till Thursday.

That's my point. I do not believe Moreau is after the GC. He must sense he is too limited for it. I am still convinced he's after the polka. now that Virenque is out of the way, and last year he had to leave it to Rasmussen.

Polka + Mountain stage for Moreau. Best chances to get it is tomorrow, because he is still in good shape. who knows what he'll look like on Thursday...Moreau never looked good in the Alpes either (but could be wrong there) so I don't think he will wait for 3rd week.

[Panic]

My guess: Moreau or Phil Gilbert or Mayo.

[reef58]

Does T-Mobile work to keep yellow, or do they change gears and work for Kloden? I can't wait to see.

Richard

[fruitless]

If Mayo is going to show anything it will start here.

[reef58]

This isn't a stage for Mayo. I can see his scrawny butt holding off the pack for 30 kilometers on a downhill. That would be special.

Richard

[Panic]

Good point Richard.

[godspiral]

This could be a surprise if they can get organized. There's 2 flatish stretches of 20k after the HC climb. If a group can stay together to help each other through those, it can take big time on the last 2 climbs

[Richard Cranium]

Really a hard stage to call. Too many sub plots, with KOM points etc..... But I'm looking to someone other than Tmob or Phonak to try and throw 2 or 3 riders up the road. This could be a do or die deal for Disco, especially if they get someone like Evans or Menchov in a mix.....

[Thylacine]

One of the B-level climbers with little GC prospects will win this stage I reckon as part of a multi-rider breakaway. All the A-level ones will be too busy eye-balling eachother and not wanting to go too hard so early in the hills.

[feltdude]

Popovych is gonna go.

[Allen H]

One of the B-level climbers with little GC prospects will win this stage I reckon as part of a multi-rider breakaway. All the A-level ones will be too busy eye-balling eachother and not wanting to go too hard so early in the hills.

I agree - this is the most likely scenario. None of the "real" GC contenders (whoever that may turn out to be!) will want to risk burning out too early on the first mountain stage, with much tougher days in the mountains still to come.

But a breakaway that succeeds could actually set up a B-level climber as a GC contender, if his team is ultimately strong enough, given how wide open the field seems to be at this point. In any event, the strategies could be fascinating starting tomorrow.

[meb]

This isn't a stage for Mayo. I can see his scrawny butt holding off the pack for 30 kilometers on a downhill. That would be special.

Richard

Right. Stage 11 is much better suited for polka data specialist to get big points.
And 10 is even less of an opportunity for the GC contendors with that long downhill finish followed by the day killer stage.

I think of Mayo as too far behind to contend for the GC so now think he'll try for the dots while also trying for a top 10 in GC. That long downhill is after the last climber points so the polka dot specialists needn't worry as much about that as the GC contenders.

[Revenig]

McEwen for the win. Oops, my mistake, got a flat stage hangover.

[blue_neon]

McEwens time is over...Evans time has just began :D.

[Devil]

Now I'm pissed that my TV is broken!

I will have to make due with the cyclingnews live report. Poor me.

[blue_neon]

Tour.fr updates and all dont seem to be working! Damn. Gotta wait my presious 1.75hours untill the Telecast beings!

:p

[Hitchy]

Tour.fr updates and all dont seem to be working! Damn. Gotta wait my presious 1.75hours untill the Telecast beings!

:p

Don't fret...nothings happening...chavennel is 10secs in front of the bunch after 25km.......so, I'm in the camp of those that think a break will win, with someone who will have absolutely no bearing on the GC....they'll all be watching each other today...maybe tomorrow for the GC contenders

[meb]

That's my point. I do not believe Moreau is after the GC. He must sense he is too limited for it. I am still convinced he's after the polka. now that Virenque is out of the way, and last year he had to leave it to Rasmussen.

Polka + Mountain stage for Moreau. Best chances to get it is tomorrow, because he is still in good shape. who knows what he'll look like on Thursday...Moreau never looked good in the Alpes either (but could be wrong there) so I don't think he will wait for 3rd week.

10th place, 2:07 behind Honchar, 1:07 behind Landis vs. Rasmussen, Mayo, and Periero. Rasmussen and Periero are back again plus Mayo is in the mix. I think Moreau is just as reasonable of a credible longshot for the GC as the dots-as teamleader this year I think he'll shoot for the more prestigious GC. A stage 10 attack to wear the dots one day will leave him spent for the more important stage 11 which is a sure concession of losing the dots the following day.

[adamastor]

Interesting. Just before the Soudet, it's Sinkewitz leading the peloton. This means Kloden is the leader of T-Mobile.

[cydewaze]

Geez some of the Newsflashes on letour.com are brutal! (but funny)


Comments From Eric Boyer
LeTour.fr contacted the manager of the Cofidis team to ask why it is that David Moncoutie is always at the rear of the peloton. It’s his usual position no matter what type of stage it is.

Mayo Feeble...
Mayo was considered a rider capable of making an impression in today’s stage. He has been dropped by the peloton early on the first major pass of the 2006 Tour. Not even his team-mate Etxebarria sees the point in waiting for him...

And from the other day:

Coyot Caught... What A Surprise!
Sebastian Joly (FDJ) is the latest rider to try and establish an escape. No one else was interested in joining him on the attack and the peloton is all together again. (It’s barely worth mentioning, but please note that Coyot’s attack amounted to nothing. Again...)

I wonder if the riders ever see these later.

P.S. I expect Mayo to abandon soon.

[adamastor]

[QUOTE=cydewaze]

Re: Moncoutié. You will see Moncoutié in one stage only. He tried at the very beginning of the stage, but was caught by peloton.

[adamastor]

at top of Soudet Landis with nobody from Phonak next to him. :eek:

[merlinextraligh]

This isn't a stage for Mayo. I can see his scrawny butt holding off the pack for 30 kilometers on a downhill. That would be special.

Richard MAyo's OTB well before the final climb. He's history.

[merlinextraligh]

Hmmmm, last climb not tough enough for a first mountain stage (still a lot of heroes around then), then too far away from finish.

I've ridden the Marie Blanque, and it is a very tough climb. There's a solid section of 13% that's about 2 k long. But as you point out there's too much time to regroup from there into Pau.

[Hitchy]

I've ridden the Marie Blanque, and it is a very tough climb. There's a solid section of 13% that's about 2 k long. But as you point out there's too much time to regroup from there into Pau.

It's not as steep as that....the steepest section is between the 6 & 7 km mark which is 11%, followed by 10.5% for a km & 11% for a further km. The last km is a positively easy 7.9% :D

[cydewaze]

This Dessel guy is in the lead now, and it looks like he can almost time trial. This is getting fun!

[meb]

The way Rasmussen blew past those guys on the final climb to pick up those 10 polka dot points shows he's ready for an all out attack tommorrow when so much is on the line. Can't read Mayo's performance, was he not well or was he really holding back to take on Rasmussen tommorrow?

[fruitless]

MAyo's OTB well before the final climb. He's history.

someone from Euskatel had to do something in the pyrenees, but I thought landaluz was banned! Cyril who? Dessel isn't even in the protour top 150 that I could find. . .and its not even bastille day:p

[godspiral]

Could Mayo have tried to fake it? -- so Tmobile would try to smoke him off the back (and catch up to break faster)?

I guess if he finished 24minutes down, he wasnt faking it :), but that was my first thought.

oh and P.S. -- this was by far the best stage so far this year. The early break made every one go way above average speed into the climbs.

[godspiral]

one last thing... Decel is a dumbass for losing 2 minutes by practically doing a trackstand in the last 2 km instead of just rolling steady to the finish, and ending up 2nd anyway.

[lhbernhardt]

one last thing... Decel is a dumbass for losing 2 minutes by practically doing a trackstand in the last 2 km instead of just rolling steady to the finish, and ending up 2nd anyway.

+1. I thought Dessel was being a little too greedy, not giving the stage win to Mercado. When you've got the polka-dots plus the yellow, you don't need the stage win, you get the other guy to help you get to the line so you get maximum time on the stage in exchange for giving him the stage. But Dessel was whining that he wanted a stage, Mercado already had a stage win...

But I thought that was a good move by Dessel and Mercado, booting it when Landaluz was within 5 seconds, since Landaluz would have just sat in to the line and taken the sprint. Besides, Landaluz shouldn't even be riding le Tour - his team should have pulled him out since he's under investigation for doping.

It was funny listening to Phil & Paul on OLN, exasperated Paul wondering why the two weren't waiting for Landaluz so he could help out. The later extended coverage with Bob Roll, where he pointed out Landaluz sitting in when they were a group of 5 to 7 before the Marie Blanque, did much to explain Dessel & Mercado's concern.

- L.

[adamastor]

+1. I thought Dessel was being a little too greedy, not giving the stage win to Mercado. When you've got the polka-dots plus the yellow, you don't need the stage win, you get the other guy to help you get to the line so you get maximum time on the stage in exchange for giving him the stage. But Dessel was whining that he wanted a stage, Mercado already had a stage win...

But I thought that was a good move by Dessel and Mercado, booting it when Landaluz was within 5 seconds, since Landaluz would have just sat in to the line and taken the sprint. Besides, Landaluz shouldn't even be riding le Tour - his team should have pulled him out since he's under investigation for doping.

It was funny listening to Phil & Paul on OLN, exasperated Paul wondering why the two weren't waiting for Landaluz so he could help out. The later extended coverage with Bob Roll, where he pointed out Landaluz sitting in when they were a group of 5 to 7 before the Marie Blanque, did much to explain Dessel & Mercado's concern.

- L.

Dessel is 31, he had never won a stage in the Tour, and that's a bloody important experience for a professional rider. if he had let Mercado win, then had lost the yellow jersey in today's stage to the "pseudo" big ones, he would have regretted for not trying.

Not letting Landaluze in was a bloody good move, as in normal circumstances, being tired from chasing them, Landaluze would have recovered in their back. This would have disturbed their cooperation. So in the last 15 kilometres being 3 instead of 2 was not an advantage.

Dessel deliberately losing 2 minutes in the stage proves he doesn't believe in his chances over the coming days for GC. Shame, as apparently he's a bloody good climber. But then again, when you're riding EPO, and making a stage as he did yesterday, you'll need a lot of stamina to survive the following stage !

[adamastor]

According to first mountain stage images, those not looking good for the next mountain stages:

Mayo
Simoni
Leipheimer
Fothen
Honchar
Zabriskie
Cunego
Casar

I'm talking of those initially tipped to be in top 10 or top 20...

[meb]

According to first mountain stage images, those not looking good for the next mountain stages:

Mayo
Simoni
Leipheimer
Fothen
Honchar
Zabriskie
Cunego
Casar

I'm talking of those initially tipped to be in top 10 or top 20...

Simoni Leipheimer Fothen Zabriskie & Cunego recovered and caught back up to the main peloton after they dropped off the back. Simoni's problem was a flat rear tire anyway. Honchar looked fine, stayed near the front of the peloton most of the day, never had trouble staying with the peloton, and remains in 3rd GC. Zabriskie was expected to struggle in the mountains, so he seemed to do better than expected. Leiphemer was struggling in stages 7 & 9, looked better in 10.

Hard to read Mayo, he look good on the final climb after dropping way back earlier-we'll se tommorrow whether he was conserving for stage 11 climber points.

[meb]

+1. I thought Dessel was being a little too greedy, not giving the stage win to Mercado. When you've got the polka-dots plus the yellow, you don't need the stage win, you get the other guy to help you get to the line so you get maximum time on the stage in exchange for giving him the stage. But Dessel was whining that he wanted a stage, Mercado already had a stage win...
.....
- L.

But the Mercado was the guy was closest to Dessell in yellow and polka dots-the same guy he was the very same guy he was trying to beat for the stage win. The argument could be just as much made for Mercado.

[adamastor]

Simoni Leipheimer Fothen Zabriskie & Cunego recovered and caught back up to the main peloton after they dropped off the back. Simoni's problem was a flat rear tire anyway. Honchar looked fine, stayed near the front of the peloton most of the day, never had trouble staying with the peloton, and remains in 3rd GC. Zabriskie was expected to struggle in the mountains, so he seemed to do better than expected. Leiphemer was struggling in stages 7 & 9, looked better in 10.

Hard to read Mayo, he look good on the final climb after dropping way back earlier-we'll se tommorrow whether he was conserving for stage 11 climber points.


With all due respect, I don't agree with any of your comments.

What do you mean with "Leipheimer was struggling in stages 7 & 9, looked better in 10..." ?
Then "hard to read Mayo, he looked good on the final climb..." 17 minutes behind the peloton ?????

He was conserving for stage 11? Bloody hell, he would be hiding his game very well.

All the others recovered, yes, but in the descent. They won't have that chance this evening after stage 11.

I'll come back to these names tonight.

[merlinextraligh]

It's not as steep as that....the steepest section is between the 6 & 7 km mark which is 11%, followed by 10.5% for a km & 11% for a further km. The last km is a positively easy 7.9% :D

From the cycloclimbing guide to the West Pyranees: " Col de Marie-Blanque (MAR)
Height: 1035m

Location: South then east of Oloron.

General Comments
Numerous reports concur - the west side from Escot, with long stretches of 12%, is especially difficult. Members’ comments include, ‘always a killer’, ‘the worst climb I ever experienced’, ‘every bit as awful as anticipated’ and a telling ‘we didn’t fancy the Marie-Blanque again’! Mostly wooded, but moderately scenic in parts. The east side from Bielle is easier except for a severe start, and is more scenic (Plateau de Benou half way up is a flat meadow with roaming horses). Two false summits, summit with sign just clear of trees, but poor views."

Last year's Etape profile showed it at 13%. Now I have to admit I'm not sure if they're riding it the same direction as last year. And when you say it's easy, have you ridden it?

[marqueemoon]

That was incredible. I can't wait to watch today's now.

I don't fully understand why the other teams were not pitching in as much to help T-Mobile reel in the break. I guess they were gambling that the break would not gain too much advantage and wear themselves out for today's stage and T-Mobile would be similarly worn out.

Today is going to be brutal.

[Paniolo]

But the Mercado was the guy was closest to Dessell in yellow and polka dots-the same guy he was the very same guy he was trying to beat for the stage win. The argument could be just as much made for Mercado.

No, really all Mercado had to ride for was the stage win. Dessell already had the yellow and polka dots in hand and should have been willing to give up the stage win to gain at least a min or two in the GC. Dessell knew this, which is why he continued to ride at the front till he really slowed up in the last Kilo. In retrospect we now know that if Dessell had formed an alliance with Mercado at the end of Stage 10 he would have held the yellow jersey till the alps and have been a national hero to the French by wearing yellow on Bastille Day. He got greedy.