Stage 17: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne - Morzine, 199 km
http://cdn.dayport.com/olnimg/tdf/img/profiles/profile17.gif

Wow...this Tour is likely to not be decided until the final time trial. And, the top contenders, Pereiro, Kloden, Sastre, Evans, and Menchov, were within one minute of each other in the first time trial.

Because the top riders are likely to finish within a minute or two of each other at the final time trial, THIS stage is really the best opportunity to win the Tour. If any of the top contenders can finish this stage in the yellow jersey, with a two minute lead over the other guys, he has probably won the Tour. And, a contender who finishes this stage two minutes behind the yellow jersey has probably lost the Tour.

Looking into the crystal ball, it is absolutely clear that at the end of Stage 17, the guy in the yellow jersey will be Pereiro. Or Kloden. Or perhaps Saste, or Evans. Maybe Menchov...the crystal ball is getting cloudy again...

All this nonsense about the stage not ending on a climb... I don't buy it. Sure, it's not the same, but there could be a VERY exciting finish because there is virtually no flats after the descent, i.e. there's nowhere to catch-up. Who wouldn't want to see Flandis cressing the Joux-Plane up three minutes and riding downhill "like [he] stole something" to pick-up more time? I don't see it happening that way, but a descent into the finish, given how close the top guys are right now promises to be very exciting!

Unless someone has a bad day, (hereafter refered as "to Floyd", v, e.g."Man he just Floyded big time on that last climb") Sastre, Kloden, Menchov, Evans, and possibly Pereiro are very likely finishing same time tomorrow. Just a little too long from the Col Joux-Plane to Morzine for big time splits.

Oboe guy, if its nonsense, give us an example from a modern tour where someone highly placed on GC made up significant time on the race leaders where the finish line was at least 12 k from the top of the final climb. I'm betting you've got to go back to Merckx

3800m of climbing... another tough day. (5000m yesterday)

I agree, the descent after the last climb is not somewhere a single rider would lose a lot of time to a pack, and could be the last opportunity for some riders to make up time.

Pardon the potentially dumb question here, but aren't most riders pretty equal descending? I mean, if a group of riders crests a col with, say, a 3 minute gap on the next group, how does that trailing group close the gap? Can they descend faster somehow? Does the front group descend more cautious with a lead and the chase group get more courageous? Or do they somehow channel Il Falco's downhilling skills?

Oboe guy, if its nonsense, give us an example from a modern tour where someone highly placed on GC made up significant time on the race leaders where the finish line was at least 12 k from the top of the final climb. I'm betting you've got to go back to Merckx

I don't think most finishing descents are as steep and techinical as this one. If one has better descending skills then another then they might gain some time, but it's hard for me to see filling any big gaps. I bet there are big gaps at the finish but... we'll all find out tomorrow.

Oboe guy, if its nonsense, give us an example from a modern tour where someone highly placed on GC made up significant time on the race leaders where the finish line was at least 12 k from the top of the final climb. I'm betting you've got to go back to Merckx

How about Paulos Savodelli losing the 2005 Giro on the road and getting the time back on the descent? Not much time, but a little, and a little goes a long way in this race.

This has to be the most exciting sports event I have seen in a long time.

Richard

Pardon the potentially dumb question here, but aren't most riders pretty equal descending? I mean, if a group of riders crests a col with, say, a 3 minute gap on the next group, how does that trailing group close the gap? Can they descend faster somehow? Does the front group descend more cautious with a lead and the chase group get more courageous? Or do they somehow channel Il Falco's downhilling skills?

On the hard descents the previous stage, the peloton was not drafting. There's still a small advantage in being able to see a rider in front of you, to see how much to brake.

Even on straight downhills though, a chasing leader peloton will rarely have a heavy good downhiller near the front to lead a chase, so not only does the chase not have as much of a speed advantage compared to flats, but more importantly has a much lower % speed advantage (73 kph chasing 70 kph, vs. 50kph chasing 45kph). Over 12km, chasing 3kph faster might just get 20-30 seconds, instead of the 70 seconds or so pelotons usually gain on flats.

hopefully they will actually show the descent on oln. whats with them always cutting to commercial or some rider/bike profile? they seem to skip alot of it.

hopefully they will actually show the descent on oln. whats with them always cutting to commercial or some rider/bike profile? they seem to skip alot of it.

I was just in Europe for about a week and a half, and got to watch the Tour on Eurosport. Much better coverage than OLN: almost no commerials, no gratuitous Lance on Stage ___, 10/2 Moment, Power Descent of the Day crap. Actually I began to wish for some more commercials when I really needed to piss... but I digress. Also, when they did interviews or profiles or what have you, they kept the race on in a split screen sort of thing---very nice! And they didn't just interview American riders like OLN tends to do (except for the stage winner or yellow jersey), they interviewed lots of different people, in all languages, with one of the commentators translating at the same time. What the hell, does this guy have a Hitchhiker's Guide style babel fish in his ear?? How can he translate German, Spanish, French, etc. like that? Probably translated ahead of time...?

Anyways, great coverage from Eurosport, and very intelligent commentators. Wish I could get that network here, but Direct TV doesn't seem to have it.

Here is my wild ass guess for tomorrow:

Landis gains 8 minutes in a crazy all out blitz.

Sastre takes yellow by a few seconds and its all blown up real good.

Evans.

Rumour has it Landis has installed a triple for tonight!
I reckon he'll need it!

I'll take someone like hmmm a Spaniard or an Italian so how bouts Cunego, De La Fuente or Zubeldia for the stage win off of a break.

I'll stick my neck out and make a bold prediction. . .there are not 8 minutes to be gained in this stage by anyone in the top 11 of the GC unless 10 of them are struck by lightning or some other act of divine intervention?

Much better coverage than OLN: almost no commerials, no gratuitous Lance on Stage ___, 10/2 Moment, Power Descent of the Day crap. Actually I began to wish for some more commercials when I really needed to piss... but I digress.

TIVO helps alot. I can watch four hours of coverage in about 45 minutes.:)

Evans.

Go figure...an aussie picking Evans :) Good on ya mate.

Kloden, Evans, and/or Sastre need to pick up more than a minute on Oscar if they want to wear yellow in Paris. I'm looking forward to a great stage. What a fun race to watch!

Here is my wild ass guess for tomorrow:

Landis gains 8 minutes in a crazy all out blitz.

Sastre takes yellow by a few seconds and its all blown up real good.
Panic...dont make a wild ass of yourself again :p
Landis to retire tomorrow with his dodgy hip as the excuse!

It's on! Looks like a nice small, non-threatening break and the peleton is letting them go for now. Their legs must be hurting from yesterday. Many barely made it up the hill.

Whooooo! I got eurosport.com audio... Floyd et. al just split the peloton, and I get the feeling he's riding to catch the leaders and see if he can get on the podium. This is fantastic.... so friggin' exciting. Go Floyd!

Koffee

I can't help but root for Floyd this year, and I am PISSED THAT MY TV IS BROKEN.

Go Floyd go. Hope this isn't a wasted effort like Levi's attack yesterday.

Well, still good stuff. Listen to the eurosport. Whoo hooo! Landis just got another minute gained on the lead group. That man can fight!

Koffee

This has been the best Tour in years. Certainly better than all of Armstrong's tours. What heart all of these guys have.

GO LANDIS GO !!!! I hope he can make it to the finish alla "Chicken".

Corsaire :)

It is really going to be tough on the flat between the Côte de Châtillon and the base of the final climb up the Col de Joux-Plane. If he had some help in the break that could wait on him that would be ideal. I guess we'll see.

Go Floyd!

Holy cow - a group with the yellow jersey has split off the peloton and is chasing Floyd.

Heh. This tour gets more interesting by the day. In the Armstrong days, you would get 2 or 3 stages that would determine the overall winner, and the rest of it was just filler. Mostly I would watch for the stage victor, the sprint or the king of the mountains, but there really wasn't any contest in the yellow jersey.

Even if Floyd can't stay away in this stage he's shown that he is a fighter. I was a fan before but now I'm an even bigger fan of Floyd. I don't know what else to say about it. It's still a long way to go but it's a damn great attack.


cue the Rocky theme music

I couldn't take it and I raced (well, I drove very fast) to a friend's house and let myself in through the window. Have to see this on TV.

Floyd has presented himself as a careful, conservative tactician...but it looks like his motto today is "win or die".

The odds against the five top contenders letting Floyd stay at the front all day are one in a million, but Floyd is still putting his two dollars down for a ticket.

the commentators on oln are making it sound like he's already got yellow back.

When he caught the breakaway, the looks on their faces was priceless (kind of like 'WTF? Where did this guy come from?'). Initially it looked like he was going to ride off the front, but I think if he can get this group to boost their pace a bit they can be of assistance to Floyd.

Back to (*&(*^)* commercial.

Do you think the leaders just might realize there is a first category and then an HC climb before the end of this stage?

They reeled back tons of time on the final climb Wednesday.

It's too early for anyone to get excited about a 4 or 5 minute gap on today's stage.

It is cool to see Floyd as an aggressor finally. This Tour has been amazing.

I'm listening to eurosport.com, thanks for the link folks finally I can listen to it at work. Sean Kelly...cool.
Landis with 4:30 over MJ....wow with 80k left to go. Again no team mates for Landis though. He needs some stronger domestiques. How is he getting water/food... the car can't get up there can it?

Go Floyd!!!

Never discount the determination of a PA Dutch Mennonite :)

B

I'm listening to eurosport.com, thanks for the link folks finally I can listen to it at work. Sean Kelly...cool.
Landis with 4:30 over MJ....wow with 80k left to go. Again no team mates for Landis though. He needs some stronger domestiques. How is he getting water/food... the car can't get up there can it?

I heard them say the car was with him before he caught the breakaway.

Compared to yesterday the climbing doesn't seem as extensive, though there are steep portions they don't have the same distance as yesterday did.

The point has come, I guess, where there's no point worrying about having gas left for tomorrow... either it happens today or tomorrow doesn't matter anymore for Flandis.

I was surprised that he pretty much caught the leaders/chase group though.

5:30?....sweet jesus what if he pulls it off?

it's exciting, but there is a lot of stage left.

on the edge of my desk...time's coming down slightly

5:30?....sweet jesus what if he pulls it off?

Hay! Don't jinx it yet. Knock on wood.

heehee....last thing I wanna do rappin' my desk
Landis is yellin at people.... GO GO GO!!! He's flippin' awesome.

Well, Floyd has really ridden with honor today. Think if Ule or Basso or anyone other than Vino had tried doing stuff like this to Lance instead of fighting for second how much more excitement there could have been! (Not saying they could have done it, but they could have at least tried?)

I met Floyd in Georgia and really became a fan, he was great. Now I'm really sad to think that his may be the last hurrah for him because of his hip. No matter what happens today, these last two stages will go down in Tour history for the drama.

DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES????!!!!

Wow. All I can say is wow. Best Tour in recent memory.

So what do you think? Is this strategy on the part of the other GC contenders to let Floyd go early, or a show of sportsmanship for the unfortunate circumstances of Floyd's performance yesterday? Or is Floyd truly just crushing the souls of the weak in the style of The Jan? :)

DrPete

I don't cry much these days but if Floyd can make up 6-7 mins on the Yellow Jersey I think I will cry. This is shaping up to be on of the great comebacks ever. I'm glued to my tv.

or a show of sportsmanship for the unfortunate circumstances of Floyd's performance yesterday?
I think we can absolutely eliminate that option. No way all of them would be that stupid, especially with the way Floyd TTs (i.e., better than all of the favorites). Initially I thought it was a strategy, and that they didn't think Floyd could last. But Landis keeps building the gap. He is nearly at 6'00" now, and as Robbie Ventura said, these guys in the peloton don't look too good... they look a little tired. Who knows. I'm just sitting back and enjoying this.

cry? I'm gonna pee!!!!

Did I say 6' ahead? It's at 6'30" now.