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Stage 19: Le Creusot - Montceau-les-Mines ITT, 56 km
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On a limb Hincapie to make up for his poor showing in the mountains. If not Hincapie I think Evans may take this.
Richard
Landis stamps his authority all over this one...
There will probably be little to no change in GC in stage 18, so this is the likely top 10 standings coming into the final TT.
General classification after stage 17
1 Oscar Pereiro (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne-Illes Balears 80.08.49 (40.528 km/h)
2 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC 0.12
3 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak 0.30
4 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile 2.29
5 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon-Lotto 3.08
6 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 4.14
7 Cyril Dessel (Fra) AG2R-Prevoyance 4.24
8 Christophe Moreau (Fra) AG2R-Prevoyance 5.45
9 Haimar Zubeldia (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 8.16
10 Michael Rogers (Aus) T-Mobile 12.13
Now, let's look at how each of these guys performed in the first TT:
23 Oscar Pereiro (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne-Illes Balears 2.40.92
18 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC 2.10.59
2 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak 1.00.62
8 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile 1.43.26
11 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon-Lotto 1.49.39
9 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 1.43.90
38 Cyril Dessel (Fra) AG2R-Prevoyance 3.42.11
15 Christophe Moreau (Fra) AG2R-Prevoyance 2.03.46
36 Haimar Zubeldia (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 3.31.84
4 Michael Rogers (Aus) T-Mobile 1.23.87
Now, if we take Floyd's 1 minute off of everyone's first TT time (basically just ignoring Honchar who was the only one who beat Floyd), and add that time to their current GC delta (the time they're behind Pereiro) and take off another 30 seconds (to make Floyd 0.00 and everyone relative to him), here's what I get:
1 Landis 0.00
2 Sastre 0.52
3 Pereiro 1.10
4 Klöden 2.42
5 Evans 3.27
6 Menchov 4.27
7 Moreau 6.18
8 Dessel 6.36
9 Zubeldia 10.17
10 Rogers 12.06
Remember that Landis had a late start and mechanical difficulties along the way. We can only guess how much time this cost him, but it's beginning to look like even a few seconds will be important coming down to the finish.
If you assume that Floyd will not have the problems he had in the first TT, and take into account that this TT is hilly and slightly longer, I would expect his lead to be bigger by a minute or more over each rider than those I calculated earlier, which took none of that into account.
If you assume that Floyd will not have the problems he had in the first TT, and take into account that this TT is hilly and slightly longer, I would expect his lead to be bigger by a minute or more over each rider than those I calculated earlier, which took none of that into account.
Is Landis good in hilly TT's?
I expect the final GC will be Landis, Pereiro, Sastre.
I am hoping Dave Z can take the stage.
Is Landis good in hilly TT's?
He's good in TTs and he's good in hills... you do the math...
Rasmussen to only fall off twice....
Mick Rogers the win...wearing the arc-en-ciel.
http://grahamwatson.com/gw/imagedocs.nsf/images/06tdfPr/$file/13.jpg
Floyd put out a huge effort today. I would be surprised if it effected his time trial some. I still think he is strong enough to close the gaps ahead of him, but with this tour who the heck knows. Oscar is not going to lay down, and neither is Sastre. I hope this race is not decided by crashes, flats, ect.
Kloden can lay down a mean time trial himself, and may be fresher than the 3 leaders. Who knows, but I do know if will be exciting.
Richard
I predict Rasmussen learned his lesson and does not fall. But perhaps there will be a new king of the malfunctions crowned after this stage. :D
Koffee
What if Pereiro, Sastre and Landis are within 30 seconds of one another AFTER the time trial? In recent years, the tradition has been that the top three riders don't race into Paris...they simply drink champagne, and finish in Paris in the same order that they begin the day.
But, if the one, two, three riders are within 30 seconds or so of the yellow jersey, there will be pressure to actually race on the last day...if that happens, the race end with the top contenders sprinting through the streets of Paris.
Regardless of who wins, the amazing collapse of Landis, followed by the astounding comeback of Landis, will make this one of the most memorable Tours in history.
It's reverse order start correct? That means Floyd gets to receive splits off all but two. This is a huge advantage for him also.
What if Pereiro, Sastre and Landis are within 30 seconds of one another AFTER the time trial? In recent years, the tradition has been that the top three riders don't race into Paris...they simply drink champagne, and finish in Paris in the same order that they begin the day.
It's been tradition for a very long time. I doubt any rider would violate the trust of the other riders like that. In 89 Fignon was only 8 seconds behind LeMond and even he didn't challenge on the final stage.
he did due it was a time trial.
S/F,
CEYA!
Landis does not need to win the ITT. Just to post the right time to get the MJ.
It's been tradition for a very long time. I doubt any rider would violate the trust of the other riders like that. In 89 Fignon was only 8 seconds behind LeMond and even he didn't challenge on the final stage.
Errr......you need to go back and check the '89 Tour archives, champ!!
I predict the French are going to love and respect Floyd, even the French press (now that he has shown the panache...).
If so, then anyone who thought their issues with Lance was just anti-Americanism is going to have to explain this.
It's been tradition for a very long time. I doubt any rider would violate the trust of the other riders like that. In 89 Fignon was only 8 seconds behind LeMond and even he didn't challenge on the final stage.
No. The race into Paris between Lemond and Fignon was designed to BE a race. That year, the final individual time trial was scheduled for the last day of the Tour. The top contenders were expected to ride all out. But, the "experts" said that Fignon's lead over Lemond was too much and Lemond had no chance.
Lemond did not believe that. He used aero bars (an innovation) an aero helmet, and rode flat out. Fignon rode a bike with a conventional set-up, let his ponytail flop around in the wind, and did not understand that he was in a real race until he was about five miles from the finish line. Later, Fignon did exactly what Lemond did when Lemond lost a race. Fignon claimed that a previously undisclosed injury had prevented him from riding well. One of the greatest stages in Tour history, starring the two whiniest guys to ever win a Tour.
Is Landis good in hilly TT's?Did you not watch Stage 17? What kind of question is that?
Is Landis good in hilly TT's?
See the ITT from this year's Tour de Georgia (http://www.pezcyclingnews.com/?pg=fullstory&id=3948)for your answer to that question
Errr......you need to go back and check the '89 Tour archives, champ!!
I did and you're right.... my bad.
I still think the time trial will decide it, but who knows with this tour.
It's reverse order start correct? That means Floyd gets to receive splits off all but two. This is a huge advantage for him also.
No, its a disadvantage because the two that matter are the two that start after him. He'll still get updats form his team but Pereiro and Sastre will have the adavantage of getting slightly better information going after Landis. Down the stretch both Pereiro and Sastre will know exactly what they need to do.
... Down the stretch both Pereiro and Sastre will know exactly what they needed to do.
:D
Down the stretch both Pereiro and Sastre will know exactly what they need to do.
Well, it could be a disadvantage:
Riis: Hey, Carlos, Floyd just cleaned the second time check about three minutes ahead of everybody. Yes, he's picked it up beyond our best schedule, so we'll have to switch to the "dig your grave" schedule. Yeah, sorry about that, Carlos. But we're right behind you if you need anything...
- L.
I really don't think Pereiro is going to lay down on this. I think he is overmatched, but he has been for a while now.
What happens in the event of a tie? Really?
Richard
What happens in the event of a tie? Really?
Don't they time it in hundredths of a second, a la the Prologue where Hushovd won by .76 seconds or so?
Don't they time it in hundredths of a second, a la the Prologue where Hushovd won by .76 seconds or so?
If Floyd beats Oscar by 30.45 seconds does Floyd get the win, or do they have to go back through all of the stages and count the fractions?
Richard
... Down the stretch both Pereiro and Sastre will know exactly what they needed to do
:D
:beer:
Great article on Floyd and his hip by Danny Coyle:
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/16/magazine/16landis.html?pagewanted=all
what time will Floyd start?
It's been tradition for a very long time. I doubt any rider would violate the trust of the other riders like that. In 89 Fignon was only 8 seconds behind LeMond and even he didn't challenge on the final stage.
What is a long time?
For a few decades leading up to the 70s the tradition was the final stage was a time trial. In 75 when the final stage was not a TT Merckx attacked on the final stage. In 79 Zoetemelk attacked Hinault on the final stage even though he was over 13 minutes down. Hinault attacked back and the rest of the peleton never caught them. (Paul Sherwen finished 5th that day).
An interesting and well experienced perspective by the man who used to train the Lance:
Factoring Heat and Fatigue Into Tomorrow’s Time Trial
By Chris Carmichael
You could almost hear what Floyd Landis was thinking as he rode behind Oscar Pereiro this afternoon: “You’re wearing my jersey, and I’m coming to get it.” If everything goes as expected, Landis is going to steamroll over Pereiro, and Carlos Sastre, in tomorrow’s individual time trial and win his first Tour de France. Of course, not much has gone as expected in this year’s race, and there are a few challenges that could make tomorrow even more interesting.
The heat has been incredible throughout the Tour de France this year, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to let up before tomorrow’s race. This is bad news for a time trial because riders aren’t allowed to get any food or water from the team car. There is one feed zone, 38 kilometers into the 57-kilometer stage, but don’t expect riders to sit up and grab a musette bag. If anything, they’ll snatch a single water bottle. Since they’ll start with one bottle on the bike, this means that at most, they’re going to ride at full-throttle for 63-70 minutes on two bottles, so don’t expect to see Landis dumping any over his head. In terms of food, many riders will start with two PowerBar Gels tucked into the elastic of their shorts.
With the extreme heat and the relatively limited availability of fluid during the stage, there’s a relatively high risk that a rider may overheat, and if core temperature rises above about 103 degrees Fahrenheit, performance suffers greatly. To reduce their chances of overheating, riders like Landis, Pereiro, and Sastre consumed a lot of fluid during today’s stage and will continue drinking throughout the evening and into tomorrow afternoon.
They may also choose to warm up tomorrow afternoon in an air conditioned room instead of outside in the heat. This was one of the contributing factors for Lance Armstrong’s dehydration crisis in the 2003 Tour de France. He was dehydrated already, and then he warmed up for the Stage 12 time trial outdoors, like normal, and became even more dehydrated. In the time trial he overheated and lost 1:36 to Jan Ullrich, who had warmed up in a cooler environment.
Stage 19 will also be the first time riders climb back aboard their time trial bikes for almost two weeks, and at the end of the Tour de France some riders struggle to stay in their aerodynamic positions for a full hour. This is one of the reasons why almost everyone will go out for a short ride on their time trial bikes tomorrow morning. These bikes put the riders in very different positions than their road racing bikes. Their hips are higher and rotated forward, their weight is shifted farther forward, and their arms are close together in the center. The bikes handle very differently than a normal road bike, especially at high speeds, and put different stresses on muscles in the legs, butt, back, and upper body.
The best aerodynamic position is useless if a rider can’t stay in it and deliver maximum power. That’s why my coaches and I worked with the Discovery Channel team and the folks from AMD to optimize the riders’ time trial positions. The team has some of the most aerodynamic equipment in the world, and we wanted to make sure their body positions allowed them to take full advantage of it. In recent years, other teams have also been paying more attention to the balance between aerodynamics and comfort, because every time a rider sits up, stands up, or even drops his head, he’s losing a bunch of the time his aerodynamic position helped him gain in the first place.
Heat and fatigue will cause riders to slow down in the second half of the Stage 19 individual time trial, and the winner of the stage, and perhaps the entire race, could depend on who slows the least. If no one cracks from a lack of food or fluids, and no one either crashes or suffers any mechanical problems, then I don’t see much of a chance that Pereiro or Sastre will keep Landis from grabbing the yellow jersey and wining his first Tour de France. To keep the jersey, Pereiro would have to have the ride of his life and Landis would have to have the worst ride of his… and both men have already had those in this year’s race.
Corsaire
Nice article Corsaire.
Its going to be one exciting TT. I cant remember the last time that 3 riders were seperated by this little time going in to the decisive TT. If Floyd can avoid mechanicals I think it is clear that he is favored. His team however has not been the most consitent with his equipment. Somebody better make damn sure his bike is triple checked and his backup as well.
Question, are there any time bonuses for winning the TT?
Since they’ll start with one bottle on the bike, this means that at most, they’re going to ride at full-throttle for 63-70 minutes on two bottles
Can't riders also use Camelbacks?
http://www.outdoornewswire.com/v/current/htdocs/etc/sa.php/63617465676f72794c6162656c3d4d746e42696b696e67266c6f636174696f6e3d323030352f30372f313132303636303131 362672737349643d31323433
Can't riders also use Camelbacks?
http://www.outdoornewswire.com/v/current/htdocs/etc/sa.php/63617465676f72794c6162656c3d4d746e42696b696e67266c6f636174696f6e3d323030352f30372f313132303636303131 362672737349643d31323433
It would mess with their aerodynamics way to much.
It would mess with their aerodynamics way to much.
Bobby Julich has won a couple of TT's with a Camelback, of course they weren't the final TT in a Tour de France though.
This will be the most exciting ITT we've seen in a while.
I made a shirt for me and a shirt for my daughter with a photo of Floyd I took in Georgia during his TT win there. We'll be glued to the TV cheering him on. I'm such a dork. I guess I've got that fever they've been talking about.:rolleyes:
Did you not watch Stage 17? What kind of question is that?
That is completely different. Being a great climber doesn't necessarily mean great on a hilly TT. Nor does being great on a flat TT mean they will be great on a hilly TT. It is quite unique.
Though his form, combined with his recent TT and climbing form, does suggest a hilly TT will suit him more than his rivals. You never know though.
I'm so damn excited!!!!!!!
Please Landis, don't mess up. Don't crash. Don't dehydrate. Don't overheat. Don't have a mechanical failure :eek: ... even if I wasn't cheering for him at the start of the Tour, I'd have to be today after his unbelievable comeback.
Question, are there any time bonuses for winning the TT?
I'm about 98% sure that there are not any time bonuses.
Please Landis, don't mess up. Don't crash. Don't dehydrate. Don't overheat. Don't have a mechanical failure :eek: ... even if I wasn't cheering for him at the start of the Tour, I'd have to be today after his unbelievable comeback.
.
I share the same feeling, I'm holding my thumbs for Floyd. Let's hope everything works out just perfect
for him tomorrow. At least, I know that his coach Ventura, admittedly, was gonna make sure he and Landis personally would go over each detail of the course to have everything under control, and leave no room for mistakes.
Go Floyd!
Corsaire :)
I predict the French are going to love and respect Floyd, even the French press (now that he has shown the panache...).
If so, then anyone who thought their issues with Lance was just anti-Americanism is going to have to explain this.
Shouldn't make a difference to anyone whether the French love or hate anyone. No offense but, What is their affection or lack thereof worth?
Keeping my fingers crossed for "Furious Floyd" tomorrow.
Talk about back to back inspiration. Lance comes back from cancer. Floyd comes back form 8 minutes on the final mountain stage with no hip. If floyd can pull it out tommorow id say a movie deal would be in the works. :lol:
Keeping my fingers crossed for "Furious Floyd" tomorrow.
3 days ago, I couldn't stand Floyd. I am now pulling for him like I haven't pulled for anyone since the Carolina Hurricanes in the Stanley Cup :D
I just hope no mechanicals or crashes for any top contenders. Have it out fair and square. Being the pick in this race has been meaningless. Sastre, Pereiro, Kloden or Evans could all pull something magical out of their hind ends. This is by no means a cinch.
Go Floyd. Dig down like you did yesterday.
What is up with all of the L's in American cycling, Lemond, Lance, Landis, Levi. If you don't have an L forget about it. Off topic I know, but it is a little odd.
Richard
That's it, I'm changing my forum name to "Lobow" :)
Is Landis good in hilly TT's?
I expect the final GC will be Landis, Pereiro, Sastre.
I am hoping Dave Z can take the stage.
Well the last mtn stage was a 150km+ "hilly" time trial.
Cunego is FLYING.
Third best time at the second time check.
Go Cunego (my favorite rider)!
Floyd has Kloden to target at 3 mins. If he does that, assuming Kloden rides OK, he'll probably do enough against Pereiro and Sastre.
16:28 CEST
Floyd's team director John Lelangue tells him he has 35 seconds on Carlos Sastre. He's already overtaken him on GC, that means.
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