Kunstler: alt.brains

[carless]

I've posted before on Kunstler:
http://www.kunstler.com/index.html
"The more naive members of the environmental sector have been suckered into this line of thinking, too -- especially the college kids, who imagine we can just divert x-amount of acreage from Cheez Doodle production and re-direct it to crops devoted to making liquid fuels for Honda Elements. They need to get some alt.brains."
Do yourself a favor and explore the archives.

[pedex]

Ya, saw that when he put it up the otherday, Ive rea his book the "long emergency" too, I dont think it will get as bad as he thinks, but I dont think it will be a very nice time in history either.

[Nightshade]

, Ive rea his book the "long emergency" too, I dont think it will get as bad as he thinks, but I dont think it will be a very nice time in history either.

I ,too, have read "TLE" and normally I'd agree with you as to how bad it will get. However, this time
I believe it will get MUCH worse than anyone can ever imagine, even Kunstler, due the over population
of humans. Until the population is thinned , this could get VERY ugly, humans will not be able to manage
anything remotely akin to "normal" even in a early 1900's fashion.

[maximusvt]

I read the Geography of Nowhere back in college and I just started reading TLE. Kunstler really hit the nail on the head about sprawl with the first book, and nobody can predict the future perfectly but I think his view is more "realist" than it is "pessimist", although most people would probably call it the latter.
It is defintely gonna be ugly. It's gonna be a pretty interesting world to live in when that time comes... Kind of makes me think I should lay off on the riding now, because I'll really need to rely on my knees to pedal me around come mid-century.
Still, I can't wait until all the f**ers who yell at us to "get off the road" now have to learn how to ride a bike.

[Platy]

About a year ago, I thought James Howard Kunstler was overly pessimistic. Now I think he's spot on. He doesn't have any answers, but his book "The Long Emergency" describes the issues very well.

[jeff-o]

Why do I suddenly want to ride a train?

[Roody]

I guess I appreciate Kunstler for his views on urban design and sprawl, more than I get behind his predictions of economic chaos resulting from the decline in petroleum production. I think (hope) that fossil fuel will gradually become more scarce and expensive, rather than suddenly depleting. I hope our policies will be sane and progressive. That is--no desperate moves like the dirty burning of coal to make electricity for cars. Even more, I hope we don't resort to desperate strategies like fighting more wars to secure our "right" to dwindling oil supplies.

[pedex]

following the goings on in the petroleum industry is one of my hobbies, it is going to deplete, and do so fairly rapidly, at least as far as what many would think is rapidly---5-8% per year once it gets going, and 5% per year means production is halved every 14 years or there abouts !!

However, what many dont understand is how this will manifest itself, the beginnings are already here, you just dont hear about it nmuch here in the US cause we are insulated from much of it, but third world countries are already getting pinched, even countries like China are being squeezed. Long long gas lines, gas rationing, shortages, increased prices, subsidies being dropped etc etc etc, its already occurring, just not in the US YET. At this stage we here in the US due to economy of scale and dollar hegemony among other things can easily outbid others and not suffer shortages, so, so far we are ok.

I think the one myth or misconception that many would benefit most from is this: there arent any tech solutions to this problem, we will be forced to suffer lifestyle changes, we will be forced to use less energy, and there isnt anything we can do about it. Biggest and fastest way to mitigate the problem is conservation, period, end of story.

Seems like many have the same outlook on this deal as they do bikes and parts upgrades versus speed LOL. So many think a single upgrade automatically means more speed, when in reality the quickest way to get faster is to work harder and train more, this same attitude will be around during the energy crisis. The ones that will suffer the most are the ones that refuse to work at dealing with it.

[KrisPistofferson]

We should have a Kunstler sticky in this forum. I enjoy his writing immensely, but I do not always agree with his politics or prognostications. Also, sometimes his surety about the future is annoying, as if he was some Old Testament prophet, or something. Total prescience is denied to us, and does anyone remember when we were going to be owned by the Japanese? Didn't happen, (although we DO seem to be living in the future predicted in "Robocop." ;) )

Anyway, don't mean to imply I'm not a fan, I am, and I do think things are due to get a might more uncomfortable, but I think hardship is good for our species, necessity being the mother of invention, and all. I generally cut n paste his Cluster**** Nation stuff in P&R from time to time, but since this is unoficially a political forum to some extent (hi mods,) we can start discussing it here, too. Kunstler rules.
http://matt-rat0.tripod.com/photospadlock/ROBOCOP-02BB1-poster_hires.jpg

[Nightshade]

I hope we don't resort to desperate strategies like fighting more wars to secure our "right" to dwindling oil supplies.

This is going on right now and to some extent has been since the Arab Oil Embargo of the 70's.
China is now outbidding America for African oil reserves as you read this. (funny not much is in
the news isn't it?) No matter what is said the Bush / Cheney agenda is to control ALL oil in the
mid east for America and Israel. I figure that towards the end of oil there will be gut wrenching
wars for the oil that's left between the U.S.,China, & Russia. Sadly, I predict that the U.S. will
loose the oil wars big time due the big business greed to out source our manufacturing capacity.

The U.S. will loose and it will be our own fault. We allowed big oil & business and their lying
politicians to lull the people into a sleep that all was "ok". The Nafta & Gatt treaties were the last
nail in the coffin for the U.S.'s ability to self sustain.

[jeff-o]

This is going on right now and to some extent has been since the Arab Oil Embargo of the 70's.
China is now outbidding America for African oil reserves as you read this. (funny not much is in
the news isn't it?) No matter what is said the Bush / Cheney agenda is to control ALL oil in the
mid east for America and Israel. I figure that towards the end of oil there will be gut wrenching
wars for the oil that's left between the U.S.,China, & Russia. Sadly, I predict that the U.S. will
loose the oil wars big time due the big business greed to out source our manufacturing capacity.

The U.S. will loose and it will be our own fault. We allowed big oil & business and their lying
politicians to lull the people into a sleep that all was "ok". The Nafta & Gatt treaties were the last
nail in the coffin for the U.S.'s ability to self sustain.

Hmmm, so how long before the USA invades Canada for its oil sands? ;)

[nedgoudy]

Hmmm, so how long before the USA invades Canada for its oil sands? ;)

Bushco doesn't need to invade Canada
thanks to the NAFTA and WTO passed
on Clinton's watch.

We already have raped all your virgin forests
and the Fat Cats in Canada have taken all the
money and invested in American Real Estate
so there is a very nice tit for tat going on between
our two countries. Virtually like no border, except
I could legally smoke a joint in O' Canada
and perhaps avoid military service there. (Thank You!)

[Roody]

You can't really generalize from this one forum, but it seems the Canadians are more hip to all this than the americans. Nevertheless, I guess they're going to go ahead and dig up Alberta--one of the most beautiful places on the entire planet. They'll probably use some of the profits to build more nice bike lanes in Ontario and BC?

[jeff-o]

You can't really generalize from this one forum, but it seems the Canadians are more hip to all this than the americans.

Heh, we're no better, I assure you. Cultural leakage and all that.

[Nightshade]

Hmmm, so how long before the USA invades Canada for its oil sands? ;)

Not to worry, mate. The tar sand ARE getting more attention now. A recent large buy of heavy
equiment was just recently completed with delivery in 2007. Canada & U.S. will now start getting
more oil from the tar sand than ever before. For some odd reason oil shale in the U.S. western
states have remained largely out of the news but there is an equpment buy being talked about now.

I think Bush /Cheney are holding back a LOT of oil reserves that are U.S. controlled to engage in a
world power grab on a mammoth scale once the oil reserves of other countries are almost gone.
There are lots of big oil players in this game of world control.

[pedex]

Not to worry, mate. The tar sand ARE getting more attention now. A recent large buy of heavy
equiment was just recently completed with delivery in 2007. Canada & U.S. will now start getting
more oil from the tar sand than ever before. For some odd reason oil shale in the U.S. western
states have remained largely out of the news but there is an equpment buy being talked about now.

I think Bush /Cheney are holding back a LOT of oil reserves that are U.S. controlled to engage in a
world power grab on a mammoth scale once the oil reserves of other countries are almost gone.
There are lots of big oil players in this game of world control.

the tar sands will never amount to much unless you consider 2-3 million bpd alot, which in the oil business it isnt, on top of that its future is threatened by both water and natural gas supplies, on top of that with an EROI of about 4 or so, its nothing, we do better with wind power or solar

oil shale is basically a non starter, theoildrum.com has a good thread on this right now

bottom line is this, all the easy to get nice sweet low sulfur oil has been gotten, and is mostly in decline, from here on out the oil gets heavier, more laden with sulfur, and much much harder to get---meaning price increases which are MULTIPLES of the current price are going to start happening, the little 40% increase last year was just an appetizer

US isnt holding back anything really, drilling rights to some of the offshore areas and ANWR, thats about it, none of which will even come close to replacing conventional sources, the US blew it long ago when it thought the texas reserves were unlimited, just like people thought Ghawar was unlimited

Just a little history here, when Hubbert predicted Texas would peak, it did, people thought he was nuts, but when production started falling they drilled like mad and of course production came back up, but only briefly, the big oil companies thought and predicted all the new techniques would increase the reserves dramatically and raise the ultimate recoverable reserves, it didnt, and it didnt by a long shot. Fast forward to the 1990's, same situation in the north sea, same predictions, same outcome, and it caught the UK with its pants down, and once again the oil industry tried to drill like mad to stave off the decline, and once again it did nothing. Move to ghawar, again, its happening all over again. Point being, oil drilling tech is quite mature, the reserves predicted when the first wells are first cored and a field is mapped are usally very very accurate, this is a proven fact. So, any illusions of mraculous tech being able to change this are wishful thinking at this point. We shouldnt have any illusions anymore about how much oil is left and where it is, the world has been mapped out pretty well. Other than the poles, which even with glacier melting wont be easy to deal with and their locations make lousy places for oil formation to begin with. Wishful thinking and illusions has allowed the current situation to evolve way past the point of any sanity, we wil pay for this, and pay dearly.

[nelson249]

You can't really generalize from this one forum, but it seems the Canadians are more hip to all this than the americans. Nevertheless, I guess they're going to go ahead and dig up Alberta--one of the most beautiful places on the entire planet. They'll probably use some of the profits to build more nice bike lanes in Ontario and BC?

Are you kidding? Alberta will keep all that money to itself and give out more "Uncle Ralph's prosperity cheques." Just wait till the place needs cleaning up after the petrochemical industry is through raping the entire province. Then Edmonton will be after the federal government for a bail out. All the snide comments made about the east coast being a drain on common weal will really come home to roost then.

[Nightshade]

bottom line is this, all the easy to get nice sweet low sulfur oil has been gotten, and is mostly in decline, from here on out the oil gets heavier, more laden with sulfur, and much much harder to get---meaning price increases which are MULTIPLES of the current price are going to start happening, the little 40% increase last year was just an appetizer

Just a little history here, when Hubbert predicted Texas would peak, it did, people thought he was nuts, but when production started falling they drilled like mad and of course production came back up, but only briefly, the big oil companies thought and predicted all the new techniques would increase the reserves dramatically and raise the ultimate recoverable reserves, it didnt, and it didnt by a long shot. Fast forward to the 1990's, same situation in the north sea, same predictions, same outcome, and it caught the UK with its pants down, and once again the oil industry tried to drill like mad to stave off the decline, and once again it did nothing. Move to ghawar, again, its happening all over again. Point being, oil drilling tech is quite mature, the reserves predicted when the first wells are first cored and a field is mapped are usally very very accurate, this is a proven fact. So, any illusions of mraculous tech being able to change this are wishful thinking at this point. We shouldnt have any illusions anymore about how much oil is left and where it is, the world has been mapped out pretty well. Other than the poles, which even with glacier melting wont be easy to deal with and their locations make lousy places for oil formation to begin with. Wishful thinking and illusions has allowed the current situation to evolve way past the point of any sanity, we wil pay for this, and pay dearly.

This I can agree with 100%. There is much information about this out there now but nobody is paying
any attention t0 it on a global level (except maybe China which is backing off suburbia & cars now)

People in the U.S. ( and maybe Canada ?) seem to have their head firmily in the sand on the issue
of a sustainable lifestyle that isn't dependent on oil now. I'd say that 99% of the population is still
in la-la land when it comes to giving up their cars, Mc mansions & suburbia today. The price for this
folly will be a killer at the end of peak oil. The "Great Die Off" of humans thousands of years ago
will look like a cake walk when the oil dries up. :( :( :(

[Platy]

Kunstler's Insight: People will do what they do until they can't, then they won't.

[Roody]

Kunstler's Insight: People will do what they do until they can't, then they won't.
The tricky part is gettting them (us) to stop doing what they do before the maximum level of chaos and desperation is reached. Petroleum is so wonderful for making chemicals and plastics, but we continue to waste it on personal transportation.

[bragi]

This I can agree with 100%. There is much information about this out there now but nobody is paying
any attention t0 it on a global level (except maybe China which is backing off suburbia & cars now)

People in the U.S. ( and maybe Canada ?) seem to have their head firmily in the sand on the issue
of a sustainable lifestyle that isn't dependent on oil now. I'd say that 99% of the population is still
in la-la land when it comes to giving up their cars, Mc mansions & suburbia today. The price for this
folly will be a killer at the end of peak oil. The "Great Die Off" of humans thousands of years ago
will look like a cake walk when the oil dries up. :( :( :(

A great die-off is pehaps an exaggeration, but your main point is probably correct: Most people will cling to their high-consumption lifestyle until events force them to change their behavior, probably after it's already too late, and and they will be especially insistent on having an internal combustion engine of their very own, as if they can't leave the house without one. I've told many people I've met that I choose not to have a car, even though I can easily afford one, and their response has almost always been to look at me as if I were utterly insane. It's like telling an alcoholic that it's possble to live without liquor. Only in this case, the addicts make up 99.5% of the population.

[Nightshade]

A great die-off is pehaps an exaggeration, but your main point is probably correct: Most people will cling to their high-consumption lifestyle until events force them to change their behavior, probably after it's already too late, and and they will be especially insistent on having an internal combustion engine of their very own, as if they can't leave the house without one. I've told many people I've met that I choose not to have a car, even though I can easily afford one, and their response has almost always been to look at me as if I were utterly insane. It's like telling an alcoholic that it's possble to live without liquor. Only in this case, the addicts make up 99.5% of the population.

You may be correct. However, until mass transit is available on a very widespread scale American's
can't go totally car-free in some areas of the country. Our govenment is deaf, very dumb, and blind
on the issue of mass transit or rail just now.

I know that the best I can hope for is car-lite due the distance of services and supplies where I live.
That is a change that happened in the last 25 yrs. as i used to be able to buy or find all I needed in
the small town of 2500 pop where I live. Thanks to wal-mart and suburbia I , like millions of others,
must now travel by car to resupply or get medical services because the towns business's all died.