Climber vs TT specialist -- who will win tdf?

[godspiral]

Seems to me like there are some very hard climbs this tour, and everything is at the end, instead of closer to the middle, and there is only 2 TTs... so I would guess climbing specialists have the best chance at winning the tour this year.

Would you list who are the better TT riders, climbers, and "hybrids". I'm assuming there is no such category as a breakaway specialist :P

[BryE]

Keep in mind that the time trials this year are both somewhat longer than usual, which will allow a strong TT rider to take more time out of his rivals than would otherwise be possible. Remember, early on Ullrich was heavily favored because he's such a strong TT rider - Basso wasn't favored as much until his dominating performance in the Giro.

Man, this year's Tour is interesting. I'm totally enjoying how everything is up in the air.

[godspiral]

Lance and Jan were exceptions in that they were strong in both TT and climbing. I don't think these are necessarily complimentary skills. I will look up past performances and report here, if you guys give me some names of riders who are considered strong in each category.

[Laggard]

Starting with Indurain, the model used to win a race like the Tour is to dominate the time trials and climb well enough to stay with your competition. They'll let pure climbers like Heras and Mayo go on big climbs because a rider like Heras is going to lose big chunks of time in the time trial.

Indurain was a "bigger" rider who climbed well enough to stay with his serious competition. He was a time-trial god though. Capuccino could outclimb him on any given day but the poor dude just could not go as fast on a time-trial bike.

Time trial specialists usually don't win many grand tours. Peschel and Rich will never win the TDF.

Your better time trialists are guys like Zabriskie, Cancellara, Bodrogi, Karpets, Rogers, Rich and Voigt. Forgive me if all these dudes aren't competing this year. I lost track of who is banned.

Good climbers include guys like Kloden, Cunego, Landis, Boogerd, Sastre, Menchov, Mayo and Pereiro.

[godspiral]

Looking through last year's results, rasmussen was one that was consistently up in the mountain stages, and had a decent overall finish.

Can you assume that anyone that is good enough to win one hard mountain stage, is also good enough to ride consistently in mountains if GC was at stake?

Hindcapie should probably be the favorite based on last year, some good results in both categories, but also because he was in a support role, rather than receiving help. Rasmussen had a lot of consistency in the mountains.

This year's winner could take yellow for the first time on the 3rd or 4th last stage.

[alanbikehouston]

The winner will be someone who does well in both the time trials and the mountains. Now, if I knew WHO that rider was, I could go to Vegas and make some money.

[merlinextraligh]

Looking through last year's results, rasmussen was one that was consistently up in the mountain stages, and had a decent overall finish.

Can you assume that anyone that is good enough to win one hard mountain stage, is also good enough to ride consistently in mountains if GC was at stake?

Hindcapie should probably be the favorite based on last year, some good results in both categories, but also because he was in a support role, rather than receiving help. Rasmussen had a lot of consistency in the mountains.



in the words of Yogi Berra, predictions, particulary about the future, are dangerous. That being said, and with all due respect, I gotta say I think you're on drugs. First, Rassmussen was a one hit wonder last year in a lucky break. He's not going to repeat anything like that this year, and will get killed in the long TT's. He was 158 in the prologue, and lost close to a minute on the GC contenders in just 4 miles. And last year on the mountains, Rassmussen was going for KOM points,not the overall win. Even with his one big break last year, he was an outside threat to get on the podium, not to win the race. Thus Armstrong and Basso didn't even try to mark him on the climbs that you saw Rassmussen collecting KOM points.

As for Hincapie, one stage does not a GC rider make. And he only won his stage last year because he sucessfully played tactics to get in break and not work. Not to knock the accomplishment, but its not like Hincapie suddenly became this dominant climber blowing people away. Unless Hincapie smokes the TT, he'll be riding for Savoldelli, Popovych or Azeveda.
I think Hincapie already knows this. You don't go chasing sprint bonuses for a day in the Yellow Jersey if you're planning to wear that Jersey in Paris.

[leadbutt]

The winner will be someone who does well in both the time trials and the mountains. Now, if I knew WHO that rider was, I could go to Vegas and make some money.

I'd either lay money on Landis or Salvodelli...

[rufvelo]

Winning a big tour has always required both climbing and TT ability, if of course the were represented equally well in the course selection. Having said that, TT results are probably the best indicator.