CF Shortage?

[wsurfn]

This is the only cycling forum I visit. My real love is windsurfing, but I still love bikes, and the wind is fickle.

Anyhow, I was killing some time at the LBS the other day--haven't been there in a while, and I was blown away by the number of carbon bikes on the racks. My single is an old carbon Specialized Allez. It was a rare bird in the day.

On the windsurfing forums (and mags too) there is a lot of talk about Boeing and Airbus buying up all the carbon fiber to make the latest airplane models. This is believed to may cause a future 20-30% increase in cost passed on to the consumer for carbon booms/masts. This shortage is real as far as I can tell. Prices have stayed the same so far. There is concern the quality of carbon may be affected too.

I apologize if this been discussed before. I did a quick search, and got no hits.

Tandemgeek what do you think? Others? Real or not? Affect cycling products?

[TandemGeek]

IMHO, typical laws of supply and demand are at play here and have been for quite some time. The majority of the more timely shortage reports first popped up in 2004 and 2005 from the raw material trade industry and recreational sporting goods trades. Bicycle Retailer did a story back in the Spring as did a few other bicycle and sporting good's manufacture trade sources that gained better traction with the bicycle retailers than the raw material / composites reports did in '04 and '05 and that's from where most of the recent "chatter" stems. You can "Google" on carbon shortage bicycle or other similar strings to find most of these articles.

Again, it's basic economics. As demand surges, so do prices until such time as additional capacity is created to meet the demand and then prices fall or stop rising and stabilize. That's what we've been seeing and it's a normal business pattern. However, if you're a carbon bike component or frame producer, you can leverage the trend and consumer response to help drive demand, explain shortages, or justify the price premiums... and that's also a normal business pattern. Although not talked about as much since it's no longer the "hot ticket" in frame material, high grade titanium is following the same pattern as carbon in terms of availability and price. If bicycle industry demand for high grade titanium was peaking right now, you'd be hearing a lot more about it. However, Ti is old news and no longer as exclusive as it once was now that just about anyone can source low-cost 3/2.5 ti frames off-shore -- where there is now quite a bit of excess capacity -- and slap their own brand name on a frame that they can still sell for a reasonable return.

If I remember, I'll check with one of my more reliable sources to get his take on the carbon crunch and advise.

[wsurfn]

Mark:

That has been my take as well. I guess I was shocked by all the carbon bikes in the shops, and the lack of carbon shortage panic that we have been hearing a lot of late in windsurfing.

Thanks for giving you take, as I know you have your pulse on cycling.

Mark

[zonatandem]

Carbon fiber, like ti, alu and steel comes in different grades.
China is producing lots of lower grade stuff so you'll see some c/f singles going for less than $1,200 or $8,000 for customs. Are they using the same carbon modulus tubes? Not likely.
It shouldn't be too many years from now before department stores are selling ti or c/f. Remember they sell steel and alu for under $50 for a whole bike. WOW!
Quality lasts . . .

[TandemGeek]

According to my industry source, demand is still exceeding supply, particularly for certain types of finished carbon fiber reinforced composites used extensively in aerospace, e.g., high modulus carbon 3k plain weave carbon prepreg. Moreover, it's not the raw carbon materials that are in short supply but loom capacity -- noting that looms are what are used to weave polyacrylonitrile (PAN) into woven roving and hybrid carbon composite fabrics.

It's also important to point out that not all carbon bicycle frame and parts manufacturers are affected as not all use prepreg. Moreover, as often times happens when manufacturers encounter a technical constraint, alternatives such as the use of non woven uni carbon can be used for frames that get painted. Apparently there have been some questionable substitutions as well.... looking back at the CyclingNews carbon shortage article from May of 2005 you'll find this interesting paragraph:

The first consequences of the forthcoming price hike can already be seen, claimed Dr Weng. He said his R&D team have come across Asian bicycle components made from cheaper glass fibre, 'wrapped' in carbon fibre. Last year's trend [2004] was for carbon fibre sheathing over aluminium cores, a shady practice but one that's easily proved to be taking place (so long as you can bear cutting into your 'carbon' handlebars, that is). However, glass fibre cores can be dyed to look indistinguishable from the carbon fibre outers and it needs specialist testing to spot the duds.

Again, economic forces being what they are, expect to see additional capacity coming on line to meet demand and as time goes by shortages and high prices for the most desireable aerospace grade carbon fiber materials will be reigned back in and become more available at more favorable pricing. And, again, not all carbon frame and parts manufacturers are necessarily affected. So, if you're considering the purchase of a carbon frame or components, do your homework and take time to understand what processes are used to fabricate the frames or components you are considering as well as the real pros and cons of those materials.... not just the marketing spin which may or may not be candid.

Given that there are only three US domestic carbon tandem frame producers, the latter can be handled with a few phone calls: one to Calfee Designs in California, another to Arizona tandems in Arizona, and a call to Santana who uses the Vyatech IsoGrid carbon-composite structures.

[zonatandem]

Cannot speak for Calfee or Santana c/f sources.
However, ariZona Tandems' Bob Davis website lists his source for carbon fiber as ICE NoLimitz (Innovative Composite Engineering) in the small Columbia River Gorge town of Bingen, WA.
This is a very hi-tech company that's been doing this for over a dozen years and is involved in innovative application/uses/testing for carbon fiber for the recreational/industrial/automotive/defense sectors.
Yup, American technology/product!
Supply/demand/quality dictates price.

Pedal on TWOgether!
Rudy and Kay/zonatandem

[wsurfn]

Yes, I saw that from their website a while back. I have a NoLimits RDM mast that is terrific. I was just up in Hood River windsurfing earlier this month. Beautiful country.