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I have another idea: Just get rid of the damn cars.
You must live in a major city somewhere. What does this thread have to do with A&S anyway?
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I have a feeling you don't have a long distance commute...
Am I right? ;)
Most people don't, and that's one of the issues, take me for example, my commute is probably average, it's 12km one way (about 7.5 miles), that's well within biking territory, there is one really, really nasty hill, and with humidex ratings lately being in the 30C (86F) range at 7am, it's been too hot to bike and not be a sweaty mess when I got there, and biking home with a humidex in the 40s (over 104F) forget it, and this is in Canada:eek:
However August usually brings cooler nights, and I will likely do it, at least one day this week, the forecasts are cooler, with less humidity. Next 2 weeks look like excellent biking weather, so take that :crash: Shell Oil!!!!
Whoa... That's quite a bit below average, which according to TNS of Horscham, Pa, was ~51km round trip. I used to pull ~7-9 miles one way, in 100+ degree heat and the worst AQ in the entire country. But truth be told, it's not for everyone, and having cheap, efficient, reliable, environmentally friendly transportation would be nice... And yes, I agree, this should be in foo. Aaron, you should consider talking to your company about having a small diesel powered velomobile built for you that's registered/insured in an accomodating state as a motorcycle. Ironically, the biggest hits were going to see are going to be inflation based because so much of our economy is based on trucking, and there's not much we can do there to increase efficiency. At least not compared to personal transportation... The only thing I can think of would be to drop the speed limit for semis to 50mph and enforce it, fuel consumption would be cut in half, and time would only increase by ~35%. It's a shame our rail system's in shambles.
Whoa... That's quite a bit below average, which according to TNS of Horscham, Pa, was ~51km round trip. I used to pull ~7-9 miles one way, in 100+ degree heat and the worst AQ in the entire country. But truth be told, it's not for everyone, and having cheap, efficient, reliable, environmentally friendly transportation would be nice... And yes, I agree, this should be in foo. Aaron, you should consider talking to your company about having a small diesel powered velomobile built for you that's registered/insured in an accomodating state as a motorcycle. Ironically, the biggest hits were going to see are going to be inflation based because so much of our economy is based on trucking, and there's not much we can do there to increase efficiency. At least not compared to personal transportation... The only thing I can think of would be to drop the speed limit for semis to 50mph and enforce it, fuel consumption would be cut in half, and time would only increase by ~35%. It's a shame our rail system's in shambles.
Ah the rail system, don't get me started.
Actually it's much simpler then cutting back on trucking, start charging licence fees based on engine displacement, and make them much heftier, and heftier still on multiple vehicles in the same household. Do a couple you live in suburbia, really need two big SUVs with 6.5L gasoline engines?
Ah the rail system, don't get me started.
Actually it's much simpler then cutting back on trucking, start charging licence fees based on engine displacement, and make them much heftier, and heftier still on multiple vehicles in the same household. Do a couple you live in suburbia, really need two big SUVs with 6.5L gasoline engines?
So, you think you can influence people's behavior with a high tax? Where is the cutoff? How much do you tax a Suburban or Hummer versus a Toyota SUV? And what gives anyone the right to tax someone to influence their behavior in a democratic society?
How much do you think you would have to tax an individual to hit his marginal rate? I mean, he can afford the SUV and the gasoline in the first place so he can probably afford the tax?
What about those poor workers in Detroit? How many more of them would be laid off when SUV sales drop further. They are getting clobbered now, even though most of it was brought on by their management and their union.
What does any of this have to do with A&S?
The Chicago Tribune has recently published a very good article on the end of the oil age. It's sobering and informative.
It's also long.
Here's the link
http://www.chicagotribune.com/media/acrobat/2006-08/24312763.pdf
I have read similar material before, and much of the peak oil stuff is written as if the problems will be, today gas is $3.00/Gallon, tommorrow you can't buy it for $300/Gallon. I think the process is going to be much more gradual then the peakists think, but not as gradual as the skeptics think.
As oil becomes scarce, demand will start to outstrip supply, and that will drive the prices up, much more then any increase we have seen so far. First thing to happen, cars will get smaller, the big SUV will disappear, as people will be unable to afford to keep a big guzzler going. Instead of racing to see who can have the biggest SUV on the block, it will be who has the smallest car. A Smart fortwo will be considered an average sized car.
As fuel prices continue to climb, people will cut back on driving, they will want to live, work and shop within a smaller and smaller area. Builders will buy up old ghettos and build new mixed use communities with high densities to make transit (by Metro or trolley) more viable for longer trips, buildings will be designed so that energy use is minimized.
With better transit, and more trips made by bike or foot, many people will look at their now aging microcar, and realise that it isn't used enough to justify the space it's taking up, and people in larger and larger numbers will go car free.
Americans will start buying American made again, because it will become too expensive to ship finished goods long distances, and materials like Steel and Wood will become common again, because they can be sourced locally. Many products will be made repairable as the cost of the goods will be higher then the cost of replacing the item.
More another time
So, you think you can influence people's behavior with a high tax? Where is the cutoff? How much do you tax a Suburban or Hummer versus a Toyota SUV? And what gives anyone the right to tax someone to influence their behavior in a democratic society?
How much do you think you would have to tax an individual to hit his marginal rate? I mean, he can afford the SUV and the gasoline in the first place so he can probably afford the tax?
What about those poor workers in Detroit? How many more of them would be laid off when SUV sales drop further. They are getting clobbered now, even though most of it was brought on by their management and their union.
What does any of this have to do with A&S?
Can you name a tax that doesn't influence behavior? Sales tax influences people to buy things online. Income tax influences people to put more in a 401k. Property tax influences people not to own as much property. Etc.
Can you name a tax that doesn't influence behavior? Sales tax influences people to buy things online. Income tax influences people to put more in a 401k. Property tax influences people not to own as much property. Etc.
I do agree with you, all taxes influence people but only when it approaches their marginal rate. If I can afford a $50,000 SUV, another few thousand bucks for tax won't bother me, I promise. So, where will the cutoff be? Will you tax the 30mph RAV also? What about the Hyundai Santa Fe? And, who will get the tax money? Who should get it? What have we here, another mild form of socialism-communistic behavior? What about those poor auto workers?
Again, what does this have to do with A&S?
Anyone who can afford it is free to spend $100/wk. on gas.
As for me, I'm free to spend $0 on gas every week I can ride my bike instead.
No arguments here.
Wondering if anyone read the related article in Harper's magazine this month. If so, post your thoughts.
Mayo,
I read the Harper's article. I found it very interesting, especially if one looks at it from the perspective of a liberal survivalist viewpoint. Normally the left is so far removed from any of the apocalyptic prediction of the left behinders and whatever the other survivalists are scared about. It's a bit of this decades Ecotopia.
It makes me wonder about what sort of 19th century professions would make a comeback under such conditions and what sort of technology would be able to transition to a petro free economy. Despite the idyllic dreams of many anti-car BF attendees some sort of car will always endure. Cultures rarely abandon technology and we aren't going to give up our thousands of miles of road system anytime soon. Though I do think we could see a revival of local textiles manufacturing as it gets prohibitively expensive to ship items globally.
Everyone keeps talking about how this will affect cycling (it is a bikes forum) and autos, but I don't think folks really appreciate how this will devestate poorer countries that are already hanging by a thread. The Harpers article primarily focussed on how it will affect the middle class in the United States. But the biggest devestation will be upon our agricultural sector. All of our food relies on petro based fertilizers and cheap transportation to distribute things like chilean grapes half way around the world. So many plants can't grow without the fertilizers and pesticides that they've been engineered with. And even worse so many people around the world count on our excess agricultural capacity to keep from starving. What will happen when we can only grow enough for ourselves?
And this doesn't even touch on the coming wars for oil. One thing I think you will definitely see in the next century is a repopulating of all the middle american farming communities as local farming again becomes a viable enterprise. And maybe they might dig up some of those office parks that are sitting on prime agricultural land, the ones that come to mind are out in Redmond, WA. These are fields that lie in a floodplain and get tons of rain each year.
Anyways that's enough of a peak oil rant for now.
jeez, i'm two months behind in my Harper's reading....the mags just keep pouring thru the mailbox......seems like i just got done with "The rise of serfdom" that illustrated guide in a recent Harpers' to new home ownership and negative equity in america; or the generals making a cause for a coup d'etat.
maybe i will dig augusts harpers out of the pile and read it today/tonight....
jeez, i'm two months behind in my Harper's reading....the mags just keep pouring thru the mailbox......seems like i just got done with "The rise of serfdom" that illustrated guide in a recent Harpers' to new home ownership and negative equity in america; or the generals making a cause for a coup d'etat.
maybe i will dig augusts harpers out of the pile and read it today/tonight....
Bek,
I'm with you on that. It takes me forever to get through all of my reading each month, but I couldn't pass up that article. It's a quick and interesting read. Let me know what you think when you get through it.
-M.
re: the harper's "Peak Oiler" article.....
I thought it was a tight, well written piece of expositional non-fiction. The writer blended a great hook with compelling initial characterization at the Ohio conference that worked well to draw a reader in. The article also cast admirable amounts of explanation across the vast scale of energy use topics and the potential world upheaval if shortfalls in supplies begin to take effect before mankind can adapt.
I found the historical references very interesting and comprehensive; from Hubbert's Peak; Kelvin's law of Entropy; The Erdlich's "Population Bomb"; Jeremy Rifkin's "Entropy", failed separatist societies of the Amana Shakers and the Harmonists as well as Festinger's social studies of failed 'cult leaders' that predicted the apocalypse.
The writer placed masses of relevant background history in the Harpers article.
The writer also covered the far reaching, insidious effects global energy shortfalls will have on the worlds crop production and general livelihood of the global citizen. Perhaps a little too western based, but within the scope of the article, well intentioned.
It is difficult to broach the amount of topics surrounding energy usage like this writer has done in his article. Using historical tie-ins, and balancing the current Peak Oilers with characters of folly in the past, the writer give fair weight to the skeptical contraargument that would be running through a dismissive reader's train of thought. However, the sheer outlay of the numbers cannot be ignored or dismissed by skepticism alone.
The writer's statements late in the piece really pulled the whole history of energy forecasting togther with the predicted collapse of western society by the shortfalls in petrol...the sectional analysis of world energy that starts out with....
"Yet, try as one might, the Peak Oilers cannot be dismissed as madmen in sandwich boards. Petroleum is inarguably a limited resource; it may peak tomorrow or it may peak a few decades from tomorrow, but the peak is inevitable."
.....is a taut chart of how the current scenario of energy is NOT going to work in the post peak world.
Well done expositional nonfiction about a compelling 'current event'.
I’ve been looking for a knowledgeable, well written book on this subject. I see quite a few titles at Amazon, but I don’t know what’s good and what to avoid.
Anyone have a reading list they could post with, perhaps, a few comments.
Thanks
starting with an Annual "State of the World" report by the Worldwatch institute is a good place to start, and filled with cross referecnces to other authors and books.....
re: the harper's "Peak Oiler" article.....
"Yet, try as one might, the Peak Oilers cannot be dismissed as madmen in sandwich boards. Petroleum is inarguably a limited resource; it may peak tomorrow or it may peak a few decades from tomorrow, but the peak is inevitable."
.....is a taut chart of how the current scenario of energy is NOT going to work in the post peak world.
Well done expositional nonfiction about a compelling 'current event'.
I agree with your synopsis Bek. It's just a shame that when we start to feel the pinch from Peak oil most folks will ask why didn't anyone tell them this was going to happen. In the same way that folks were surprised when New Orleans was flooded by a hurricane. If I die tomorrow in a massive Los Angeles earthquake most folks will not be too sympathetic. I've been warned and it is personal risk that I am taking by living here. Same with the US and it's oil hungry economy, everyone's been warned and yet we are all still going to be screwed. The people I worry about are the poor in our country and abroad who barely eke out a living now and do not have any additional resources to prepare for the coming problems.
How do you put up a solar system or a windmill if you don't even have access to fresh water?
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