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wahoonc
 
Anybody seen THIS (http://www.wral.com/money/9637243/detail.html) yet? 8% of total US Production. Around 2.6% of total US supply. Anyone wanna bet how long before we see $5 a gallon?

Aaron:)


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Zinn-X
 
This is only going to make large people in SUVs more crazy and rude to us cyclists :eek:


wahoonc
 
This is only going to make large people in SUVs more crazy and rude to us cyclists :eek:
I think the rudeness comes with the vehicle...

Aaron:)


trackhub
 
This is only going to make large people in SUVs more crazy and rude to us cyclists :eek:

You're probably right, although I suspect that the new class of Ultra-rich, who drive the most largest and most expensive models, won't even care.

I'd be more concerned about the price of heating oil, food, and other things that everyone needs.


dobber
 
Less then half a percentage of the current global consumption and hardly an issue in a world with continually rising stockpiles. Of course the markets will take the opportunity to over play it and drive prices higher. And the A&S crowd will clap hands and dance about.


DataJunkie
 
...and prices will never come down while shafting everyone next winter with heating prices.
yay :(

$200 to heat my itty bitty house. There is only so much weather proofing I can do.... my attic is already massive insulation.


WalterMitty
 
I think this is terrific! Once gas gets to $5.00/gal the slumbering masses will head to the streets with pitchforks and torches!

Maybe then our congresscritters will take a break from living the high life and produce a cogent energy policy that will solve a variety of social and economic problems.


chipcom
 
I think this is terrific! Once gas gets to $5.00/gal the slumbering masses will head to the streets with pitchforks and torches!

More like $10 a gallon before that happens.

Maybe then our congresscritters will take a break from living the high life and produce a cogent energy policy that will solve a variety of social and economic problems.

Yeah, that'll happen and we'll all live happily ever after. :rolleyes:


Portis
 
Anybody seen THIS (http://www.wral.com/money/9637243/detail.html) yet? 8% of total US Production. Around 2.6% of total US supply. Anyone wanna bet how long before we see $5 a gallon?

Aaron:)

We won't see $5 per gallon gas. That would inflame the masses. The goal is to slowly raise the price as to where people will slowly quit complaining about it. So far it has worked.


Bikepacker67
 
hardly an issue in a world with continually rising stockpiles.

What planet do you live on?


Richard Cranium
 
There's no aspect about the end of the petroleum age that will benefit the cycling community. Suffice to say, that the current quality of life for most of us, will not be sustainable without a shifting a significant portion of any disposable income to necessities.

Whatever, savings cycle-commuting could save you will be lost to the increased expenditures in nearly every other of life's endeavors. Perhaps, the only aspect of cycling afforded each of us - in spite of the onset of Peak Oil, is our good health. Enjoy it while you are able............


larue
 
I think the rudeness comes with the vehicle...

Aaron:)
I am a cyclist and I also own a suv. A 2006 Rav4 that happens to get 30 mpg to be exact. And I'm definitely not rude to other cyclist.:rolleyes:

Generalizations are for fools.


Monoborracho
 
I am a cyclist and I also own a suv. A 2006 Rav4 that happens to get 30 mpg to be exact. And I'm definitely not rude to other cyclist.:rolleyes:

Generalizations are for fools.

+1

I think it is comical so many people think they know all about the oil business, that there is a conspiracy out there (gotta blame someone) and that the government can fix the problems with some mythical energy policy (it was called rationing during WWII).

Further, even if we don't own a car, we are all dependent on oil for fuel to move and heat everything.

I just laugh and shake my head.


Bikepacker67
 
Further, even if we don't own a car, we are all dependent on oil for fuel to move and heat everything.


Not to mention that for every 1 calorie of food we produce, we use 10 calories of petroleum (http://www.sustainabletable.org/issues/energy/).
Hope most of you have green thumbs.


DataJunkie
 
I think the rudeness comes with the vehicle...

Aaron:)


That would explain why my grandparents, the most polite people on the planet, drive a highlander. :rolleyes:
Not to mention my coworkers that drive SUVs are also quite friendly. The two other avid cyclists at my work are also nice people and own SUVs. So,...... :rolleyes:


larue
 
+1

I think it is comical so many people think they know all about the oil business, that there is a conspiracy out there (gotta blame someone) and that the government can fix the problems with some mythical energy policy (it was called rationing during WWII).

Further, even if we don't own a car, we are all dependent on oil for fuel to move and heat everything.

I just laugh and shake my head.

Not to mention that for every 1 calorie of food we produce, we use 10 calories of petroleum (http://www.sustainabletable.org/issues/energy/).
Hope most of you have green thumbs.

+2

Why is it people blame all things related to oil on cars?
Do they not realize that unless you are purchasing only locally grown food that your food is transported via truck?
Is everyone here using green energy? I doubt it.
There are a lot of factors we need to look at in order to reduce our dependence on oil.

People need to wake up!


caligurl
 
I am a cyclist and I also own a suv.

me, too! we actually were "forced" to buy an SUV because some JACK@SS tried to steal our bike off othe hitch rack..... rather than loose $10,000 work of bikes (2... mine and his) or rather than not travel to organized rides... which we like to do... we did the next best thing... bought a vehicle that will transport us and our 2 bikes and hold them safely if/when we need to stop on the way to/from a ride!)

and as for being rude to cyclists... ya.... ok... whatever.... I RIDE, TOO! why would i be rude to other riders on the road???? :rolleyes:


Treespeed
 
The most obvious solution is to simply tax gasoline. The whole taxing engine displacement is a ridiculous hair splitting farce. Where as with a gas tax the more you use, the more you pay, very simple.

The tax should go into research for alternative fuels, etc. Why shouldn't the people wasting our children's energy resources help to find and implement a replacement. We've known about peak oil for 30 years and in that time all we've done is squandered our children's energy future. It may be your right to commute alone in a 6,000lb truck, but you should have to pay for the priveledge.


chipcom
 
There's no aspect about the end of the petroleum age that will benefit the cycling community. Suffice to say, that the current quality of life for most of us, will not be sustainable without a shifting a significant portion of any disposable income to necessities.

Whatever, savings cycle-commuting could save you will be lost to the increased expenditures in nearly every other of life's endeavors. Perhaps, the only aspect of cycling afforded each of us - in spite of the onset of Peak Oil, is our good health. Enjoy it while you are able............

Most folks don't consider that things like tires, chain lubes, etc. are made from petroleum. Anyone who thinks that riding a bicycle is going to be their saving grace when things get really bad are in for a rude shock if (when) it happens. Of course I have enough tires to last me for about 20 years of riding. :D


Blue Order
 
There's no aspect about the end of the petroleum age that will benefit the cycling community.............I have to disagree with your blanket statement. There may be aspects of the transition to something else that will be difficult, but we will transition. And that's the key. As petroleum becomes progressively more expensive, more people will search for alternatives. And the market will provide those alternatives. Some will buy more smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles. Some will buy smaller, alternative-fueled vehicles. Some will transition to public transit. Some will take up bicycling. All of these choices will result in fewer behemoths crowding the roads, which will make the roads safer for everybody, including cyclists. And as more people take up bicycling as a reasonable transportation alternative, we'll see more and more bicycle-friendly policies and conditions.


Treespeed
 
Most folks don't consider that things like tires, chain lubes, etc. are made from petroleum. Anyone who thinks that riding a bicycle is going to be their saving grace when things get really bad are in for a rude shock if (when) it happens. Of course I have enough tires to last me for about 20 years of riding. :D

Yeah, but not as much of a shock as someone who commutes 40 or 50 miles every day by car which is not unheard of here in Los Angeles. And it may not be pretty, but you can lube your chain with veggie oil. And I imagine if I take care of it my steel framed Surly will probably last another 50 years.


chipcom
 
Yeah, but not as much of a shock as someone who commutes 40 or 50 miles every day by car which is not unheard of here in Los Angeles. And it may not be pretty, but you can lube your chain with veggie oil. And I imagine if I take care of it my steel framed Surly will probably last another 50 years.

Until I moved earlier this year my total one-way commute WAS 45 miles (now it's more like 20). It ain't just in LA that people have long commutes.

So where do you figure on buying your veggie oil? Gonna have to make it yourself - think lard. :) Tires are an obvious challenge, but things like bearings are also gonna be a problem. I figure most of us are gonna get where we want to go either on foot or pulled by a critter, if things go that far south in our lifetime.


Blue Order
 
Until I moved earlier this year my total one-way commute WAS 45 miles (now it's more like 20). It ain't just in LA that people have long commutes.

So where do you figure on buying your veggie oil? Gonna have to make it yourself - think lard. :) Tires are an obvious challenge, but things like bearings are also gonna be a problem. I figure most of us are gonna get where we want to go either on foot or pulled by a critter, if things go that far south in our lifetime.It won't happen like that. As oil becomes more scarce, its price will rise. Some people will see that there's money to be made by offering alternatives, and other people will see that there's money to be saved by buying alternatives. Society will transition to other sources of fuel, and alternative modes of transportation. Life will go on.

And oil will still be available as a lubricant. It just won't be as cheap as we're used to, because we burned up the enormous supplies of lubricant we had....

And our descendants will look back and think we were idiots.


Treespeed
 
Until I moved earlier this year my total one-way commute WAS 45 miles (now it's more like 20). It ain't just in LA that people have long commutes.

So where do you figure on buying your veggie oil? Gonna have to make it yourself - think lard. :) Tires are an obvious challenge, but things like bearings are also gonna be a problem. I figure most of us are gonna get where we want to go either on foot or pulled by a critter, if things go that far south in our lifetime.

While I can see things going pretty far south in my lifetime just because somethings require a lot of energy doen't mean they still won't be done. Alcoa processes aluminum in Eastern Washington using hydro power, and I imagine you could do similar industrial work with solar, wind, or nuclear power. Of course if petro power disappeared tomorrow we'd be screwed, instead it will be a transition as the oil that's left in the ground gets more expensive to pump and harder to find.

I would imagine that we will always have bicycles, they were here before cars and haven't changed all that much since then. Though maybe we'd have a forum where we complained about having to share the road with horses and their crap, and carbon fiber buggy companies?

And as far as veggie oil I would imagine things would have gone well past far south if I can't buy some veggie oil for my bike. I would imagine if that came to pass then I would be growing my own food and
trying to figure out how to get water here in Los Angeles.


Treespeed
 
And oil will still be available as a lubricant. It just won't be as cheap as we're used to, because we burned up the enormous supplies of lubricant we had....

And our descendants will look back and think we were idiots.

Imagine having to explain to our grandchildren the BS we wasted their energy future on. All this time we could have been using what is essentially free energy to build a sustainable alternative energy infrastructure and transportation system. Instead we've just farted away their future on vanity and religious violence.


desmo13
 
I ride a bike. I also own a SUV, I commute, I teach in a high crime, low income inner city school. I will not live there.

So when gas runs out.. I ride my bike. no petroleum products for tires, chains, lubricant.. oh well, I also have a horse :)


wahoonc
 
I am a cyclist and I also own a suv. A 2006 Rav4 that happens to get 30 mpg to be exact. And I'm definitely not rude to other cyclist.:rolleyes:

Generalizations are for fools.

Some how I don't think that a RAV 4 is in the same class as a Hummer or Escalade...I happen to own a redneck special (crewcab dually). But I pay extra attention to cyclists, because you never know what the fools are going to do. So now all cyclists are fools.:rolleyes: BTW the orginal comment was tongue in cheek...

Aaron:)


lyeinyoureye
 
It won't do much. Locally, an 8% decrease is only ~$83 a barrel, less on the world market. Maybe 10-20 cents at the pump, if that? Iirc gasoline price is currently influenced by ethanol prices, all the barrel price does is set a lower limit, it's the country wide switch to ethanol for emissions (mtbe is a carcinogen, yay!) that brought it up to $3 a gallon, and past diesel, which was more expensive because it already made the low sulfur/emissions switch in some areas.


Monoborracho
 
It won't do much. Locally, an 8% decrease is only ~$83 a barrel, less on the world market. Maybe 10-20 cents at the pump, if that? Iirc gasoline price is currently influenced by ethanol prices, all the barrel price does is set a lower limit, it's the country wide switch to ethanol for emissions (mtbe is a carcinogen, yay!) that brought it up to $3 a gallon, and past diesel, which was more expensive because it already made the low sulfur/emissions switch in some areas.

Where did you study economics? Think MARGINAL rate when forecasting a price change.

As to ethanol...it is a government subsidized boondoggle...they can't grow enough corn to run the cars of this country and you sure wouldn't like the price of it if they did. I am of the opinion that the main people profiting from ethanol are those that are subsidized to grow it.


lyeinyoureye
 
Where did you study economics? Think MARGINAL rate when forecasting a price change.

As to ethanol...it is a government subsidized boondoggle...they can't grow enough corn to run the cars of this country and you sure wouldn't like the price of it if they did. I am of the opinion that the main people profiting from ethanol are those that are subsidized to grow it.

Oh yeah... ethanol as fuel is nothing more than thinly veiled kickback to certain rural populations so that come election time, they won't be as irritated about inflation. When used as an emissions additive, not much volume is required, but it was still enough to bring up the price of gas significantly. In terms of the summer driving season, lsc from the Gulf broke $80 a few days ago... Probably because the industry knew about the reduction in capacity before hand. The article stated that it was because of the summer driving season, but it's almost the middle of August, kids are going to school in a few weeks, so I doubt people are going to do a lot of driving between now and then. We're not in winter where gas demand drops sharply, but we're also not in the beginning of July.


McDave
 
Don't forget about plastics or these other common items made with oil...

Ready to live without Computer chips – Ink – Paint brushes – Telephones – Insecticides – Motorcycle (bike)helmets – Clothing – Tents – Shoes – Glue – Skis – Hand lotion – CDs – Rubbing alcohol – Credit cards – Crayons – Toilet seats – House paint – Movie film – Disposable diapers – Upholstery – Garden hose – Umbrellas – Milk jugs – Bandages – Antihistamines – Nail polish – Perfume – Luggage – Ballpoint pens – Aspirin – Carpet – Toys – Pesticides?

http://odp.postcarbon.org/getinformed/oilchemicalsandplastics


wahoonc
 
McDave,
I agree that almost every product we consume today has at least some, if not a lot of oil attached to it. If nothing else how did it get from China to Walmart.;) Several of my pet peeves include the marketing of plastic contained products as well as plastic products themselves. How many people were buying bottled water 20 years ago, now the freakin' empties are every where and we pay for it in waste plastic and wasted landfill place. Plastics are a great product but they are over used and abused. Walmart (and others) "create" a market for cheap disposable plastic crap. They make a run of a product, once it's gone they "invent" something else that joe consumer just has to have, besides he got a good deal on it! Most homes today are crammed with needless plastic products that are going to end up in one place...the landfill. What is wrong with paper cups at McD's(insert your favorite fast food joint) the cups are made of plastic and they sell millions of them every day. On more than one occasion I have gone to a fast food joint and asked them to fill my Nalgene bottle with a fruit drink or sweet tea (nectar of the gods) nope can't do it...gotta give me a jumbo plastic up that I now have to deal with ie, trash. I will turn the rant off:o Glass is recycleable and can be reused for food products, plastic can't. Aluminum can be recycled and reused for food products, plastic can't. BTW IIRC the numbers less than 50% of available aluminum is recycled and recycling aluminum saves over 70% of the energy required to extract aluminum from the ore. Steel cans can be recyled and reused for food, plastic can't. See a pattern?:p Marketing at it's finest!

On Edit; I suspect many NECESSARY plastics could be produced from soybean type products. Henry Ford was playing with them back in the 30's and 40's.

Aaron:)


Michigander
 
So when gas runs out.. I ride my bike. no petroleum products for tires, chains, lubricant.. oh well, I also have a horse :)

I use soy based gun oil. It would also work for bikes.

Something worthy of notation is that you could always make your own E85. All you need is a moonshine still, and 15% gasoline to prevent the ATF arresting you.


chemcycle
 
Oh Oh...here it comes OIL SHORTAGE

Uh....no.

But when the sky really does fall....no one is going to listen.....


KnhoJ
 
How many people were buying bottled water 20 years ago, now the freakin' empties are every where and we pay for it in waste plastic and wasted landfill place.
>snip<
On Edit; I suspect many NECESSARY plastics could be produced from soybean type products. Henry Ford was playing with them back in the 30's and 40's.

Aaron:)
I do admit feeling a little relief when there's a plastic bottle tossed out of someone's window rather than glass!

And, cellulose plastics are already finding their way (back!) into the market. They've been around for a while, but needed something totally unexpected like a huge increase in oil prices to make up some of the price gap. They degrade in sunlight! Googling... Ooo! The first plastics were cellulose based! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plastic So, how's vulcanised rubber do for bicycle tires? :D
Oil, schmoil.


bentstrider
 
I feel all these new bio-fuels would be good if they are applied towards mass transit buses, trains, and taxi cabs. Personal vehicles should be allowed it, but charged a much higher price for their preffered choice of getting around.
As far as food containers go, I could see a return of the neighborhood milk-man and such.
Use the milk one week, and put the empty containers outside for pickup next week.
If anything, we could sure save ourselves by transitioning away from the "throw-out" society we have become.


wahoonc
 
I feel all these new bio-fuels would be good if they are applied towards mass transit buses, trains, and taxi cabs. Personal vehicles should be allowed it, but charged a much higher price for their preffered choice of getting around.
As far as food containers go, I could see a return of the neighborhood milk-man and such.
Use the milk one week, and put the empty containers outside for pickup next week.
If anything, we could sure save ourselves by transitioning away from the "throw-out" society we have become.

Absolutely, but you have to change people's habits and unfortunately there appears to be a large segment of the population that is not going to change until forced to, and even then they will file lawsuits and resist.:rolleyes: Minor example: I am fueling up my beast at the local stop and rob. Guy drives in, in a flashy Hummer. While pumping he was whining about the high cost of fuel and how the government "ought to do something about it". When he leaves the station it is at full throttle...DUH! As far as habit changing; I now set my cruise at 65 mph on the interstates (those where the speed limit is 65 or higher) I am now the slowest thing this side of a bicycle on the planet;) drive only when I absolutely have to. Our company has asked (mandate will come later I am sure) that we carpool as much as possible to and from jobsites. They have also reviewed company vehicle use and as a result parked 3 trucks in the past month as not absolutely necessary for the operation of the company.

There are some areas where the milkman has made a revival (VaBch, VA) I was a bit suprised to see it but hey it's a start...now if we can get them to deliver by horse or bicyle...:p

Aaron:)


bentstrider
 
[QUOTE=wahoonc]Absolutely, but you have to change people's habits and unfortunately there appears to be a large segment of the population that is not going to change until forced to, and even then they will file lawsuits and resist.:rolleyes: QUOTE]

Fine then I say.
Just keep them prices jacked and don't pay no mind to the whiner driving the Hummer.
So, what if people file lawsuits, they'll end up losing more money and energy fighting for their cheesy cause.
Not to mention something like that could be seen as a frivolous one depending on how you look at it.

If only Henry Ford and Karl Benz had a glimpse into today.
They would walk right back to their drawing board with all the notes, and light that thing on fire.


Richard Cranium
 
And as more people take up bicycling as a reasonable transportation alternative, we'll see more and more bicycle-friendly policies and conditions.I would agree, there can and will be isolated improvements of certain bicycling related facilities. However, the bicycle, as a transportation device in America, isn't even on the radar. OK, so I'll admit, bicycles appear to have "transportation value" on college campuses.

What my previous comments were meant to imply, was that Peak OIL will more than likely usher in a quality of life that leaves less time for bicycle riding whether that riding be recreational or utilitarian. Of course, if you're well off, you can go ahead disregard my remarks.


0_emissions :=)
 
+1

I think it is comical so many people think they know all about the oil business, that there is a conspiracy out there (gotta blame someone) and that the government can fix the problems with some mythical energy policy (it was called rationing during WWII).

Further, even if we don't own a car, we are all dependent on oil for fuel to move and heat everything.

I just laugh and shake my head.
I agree too. If you think you're saving the world by riding your bike, you're an f*****g idiot. Pretty much every single thing in your modern life is supported by oil. I can forsee things getting a whole heck of a lot worse before they get better, if at all...Sorry, I just read TLE, and it kinda made me depressed...


Wogsterca
 
It won't happen like that. As oil becomes more scarce, its price will rise. Some people will see that there's money to be made by offering alternatives, and other people will see that there's money to be saved by buying alternatives. Society will transition to other sources of fuel, and alternative modes of transportation. Life will go on.

And oil will still be available as a lubricant. It just won't be as cheap as we're used to, because we burned up the enormous supplies of lubricant we had....

And our descendants will look back and think we were idiots.

I think your right, peak oil pessimists often protray peak oil as being, today you can buy gasoline for $3.50/Gallon, peak oil is announced, and you can't get it, even if your willing to pay $3,500/Gallon. I think prices will uptick, but there is also pressure on oil companies to keep prices reasonable. After all, if you can't afford it, you will not buy it, no matter how much you want to, or feel you need to drive.

Which means that prices will increase, at a faster rate, just as they have been the last couple of years, between 1980 and 2000 the price of gasoline, in Toronto, Ontario, Canada rose from around $0.30/L to around $0.50/L increasing by $0.01/L per year, on average. Between 2000 and 2005 it rose from $0.50 to $0.90 (with a brief post Katrina rate of over $1.30/L, but that is an anomally) an increase of $0.08/L per year. A year later it's over $1.00/L or an increase of $0.10/L per year. Post Peak oil, I would expect that this kind of trend will continue, but at a still faster rate.

People have limits though, gas guzzlers will become too expensive to run, good bye SUV, engines will get smaller, cars will need to lose weight, more aluminum and recycled plastics will be used to allow cars to be lighter, and more efficient, people will start to drop out of the auto market all together, taking more transit and using pedal and foot power.

New cars will either be designed for biodiesel or higher amounts of Ethanol in fuel, and that is one way that petroleum companies will be able to moderate prices. However there are limits to how much ethanol can be produced and how much biodiesel can be produced, in that farmers will have fewer petroleum based chemicals to use to enhance yield.

I could go on, but it's late, and I need to get up early to BIKE to work:D


rrruuunnn
 
you said the ultra rich drive big cars. not so, due to george bush. in 2003 to 2005, he gave $100,000 tax write offs for vehicles with gross weight of 6000 pounds to business owners. now, business owners get $25,000. that means a big suv costing $55,000 only costs $30,000. plus, these vehicles get better gas tax reimbursements. george bush doesn't believe in global warming. and norway is going to have their international ports freeze over.


rrruuunnn
 
oh, i forgot to mention this tax write off cost the country $2.1 billion.


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