Foo - Easiest Brain Quiz Of All Time

Okay people, go ahead and read the original "Brain Quiz" thread. Google "Monty Hall problem." Do all the research you want, and then respond to the following:

You are on a game show. The object is to win a car. There are 3 doors, a car is behind one of them. Behind the other 2 doors are goats. You select door #1. Before showing you what is behind door 1, just to mess with you, and because it makes good tv, the host opens door 2 and reveals a goat. He then is about to open door 1 to see if your car is there, but stops first, just to mess with you some more, and asks if you want to keep door 1 or switch to door 3. You should:

a) Keep door 1
b) Switch to door 3
c) It doesn't matter

Your hint is a matter of perception. I was right with my choice. So as not to persuade choices I will PM you why.

WithanF - Let's suppose you cross the river and go into Philly. You go to the base of Broad Street and begin walking north, asking every 5th person you meet your "Brain Quiz" and explain in detail the "right answer" to each of the respondents.
Will You:

A. Get scoffed at
B. Soon become familiar with the Drexel U. medical facilities
C. Soon become familiar with the Temple U. medical facilities
D. Change you plans and return home before you've gone 6 blocks
E. Some combination of the above

LOL...me thinks zorro is tired of this conversation!

http://usera.imagecave.com/jimu1971/Beat_Dead_Horse.jpg

My lord, some of you are stupid.

My lord, some of you are stupid.

Don't you have disinformation you need to post in P & R?

As written this is not a probability problem and the 'right' answer varies. If you ever watched the game shows you would know tthey do NOT always play it that way.

SO

If you think they want you to win change.

If you think they want you to lose stay.

If you think it is based on how time has gone (e.g. need to take more time) then change based on hte logic the OP is using.

At this point it is more of a psychological experiment than anything else. First, I'm curious to see if the percentages change at all given Vegas Vic's excellent work trying to explain the correct answer. Second, assuming the poll results do not change, I'm curious to see if I Vic's head will explode. I think we're getting close. Trust me, this is the last you'll hear from me on this subject. I'm just curious about the numbers for some strange reason.

The original question was posed to an advise columnist with an IQ of 228, the Guiness world record. She's the one that says to switch.

http://www25.brinkster.com/ranmath/marlright/montynyt.htm

Where's the option to pick door #2? I'm tired of all this arguing. I'm hungry, and I just want a goat to eat for lunch. Door #2 is the sure thing.

Lay out 9 playing cards in the three possible scenarios. Then play the game. If you still don't get it after doing that, you are hopeless.

Just send me the goat already. I'm starving.

Lay out 9 playing cards in the three possible scenarios. Then play the game. If you still don't get it after doing that, you are hopeless.

As much as it pains me to admit it, I tried the card thing like jschen suggested enough times to believe it. I was wrong - but I had to have earned style points for my bluster no? :D

Vic, if I can admit being wrong, hopefully you'll realize that it isn't an act that causes death. Perhaps you'll find some courage to re-examine some of your assertions in P & R, and admit it when you are wrong. ;)

Now let's eat all those goats that USAZorro managed to win 1/3 of the time. Yum... roasted goats.

Now let's eat all those goats that USAZorro managed to win 1/3 of the time. Yum... roasted goats.

Hey! Who says I'm sharing? Besides, if they weren't billy goats, I'd be milking them. :p

GOAT CHEESE for foosters!!!!!

Now let's eat all those goats that USAZorro managed to win 1/3 of the time. Yum... roasted goats.


Man, all I won was a picture of a red car with a 33.3% chance. Where are the wooly burgers being served?

Man, all I won was a picture of a red car with a 33.3% chance. Where are the wooly burgers being served?

jschen's been killing them off for the better part of the day now. The BBQ will be in La Jolla on Saturday, unless I can persuade him to move it to Mission Beach.

BBQ in Mission Beach? This Saturday? Sounds good to me. :D

this....thread....is officially HIJACKED!

No it's not! We're just discussing what to do with all the goats we keep winning.

oh, yes dear, it most certainly is. there is no more mind numbing discussion about 1/3 or 50-50 % or evil game show host motives. You are all ready to have a goat roast on the beach. H-I-J-A-C-K!




not that I can blame you.....

Liz, my dear, I was proposing a means of getting exactly what one wants. Rather than picking door 1 or 3 and getting an uncertain quantity, one can pick door 2 and get a goat. And enjoy a BBQ with the Foosters. Sure beats uncertainty, don't you think?

What if I accidentally win a car? I already have a car. Does it make good financial sense to keep another car around? Would I have the financial discipline to sell a car that I won? On the other hand, if I win a goat, we all can have a great BBQ. There's an even higher probability in door 2. 100% chance of getting a goat.

See... it's still about cold, calculating choices!

Ah, but my darling Jason....you are forgetting the OP: main goal is to win the car. once your discussion and planning and cold calculations strayed from that, you hijacked this thread. see?

Oops. Sorry Liz. You're right, of course.

HA! I win! (first time for everything I suppose!)