As the autumnal equinox approaches, i am finding myself riding more and more at dusk and in the dark. I know the dark riding season looms over many of us in the northern hemisphere. The realization among dedicated transportation cyclists is that riding to and from work in the dark returns soon.

This is a thread to gauge other Advocacy and Safety pundits' feelings about riding at night. Some of us are not deterred by riding at night and continue our commute on bikes year round. here in the Puget Sound area, we get less blizzards than Minneapolis, but there's an awful lot of windshield obscuring rain six months out of the year.


So, my question is to gauge if riders here feel visibility devices like blinkies and reflective tape and vests and the like are more effective for drivers seeing and cognifing bicyclists sooner, or is it lane position that helps more at night?

I'm not discounting riding 'alpha dawg', i'm just asking what gets a cyclist noticed sooner in the dark...some of the 'alpha dawg' lanegrabbers that post here don't ride at night much, i'm wondering the experiences of other transportation cyclists that actually ride their bikes year round feel about "lights or lane position?"

I'm not discounting riding 'alpha dawg', i'm just asking what gets a cyclist noticed sooner in the dark...some of the 'alpha dawg' lanegrabbers that post here don't ride at night much, i'm wondering the experiences of other transportation cyclists that actually ride their bikes year round feel about "lights or lane position?"

Lane grabbing positioning at night in fast traffic without rear lighting (or at least good reflectors) is idiotic as well as suicidal. Anyone who claims positioning is more important than lighting/reflectors at night is a doo-doo head.

I'm sure you are correct about some of the 'alpha dawg' lanegrabbers that post here don't ride at night much but will freely post their book learnin'/therories about the subject.

This morning, due to the rain in my area, I wore a reflective bike vest and ankle rings, but normally, I just run front and back lights and reflective ankle rings. I always select the best road position for visibility, usually taking the entire right lane if more than one lane is available.

Therefore, my votes were for 3 AND 4.

Did somebody actually say that lane positioning is more effective than lighting at night?

I look forward to the season when I can play with my lights. My trike is really tricked out with cool lights. My other bikes are kinda ordinary about the lights.

I would not ride in driving rain. I'd probably get washed out to sea. When it rains that hard here in my area we get flooding. Plus there are just some kinds of weather I'd rather not go out in. I guess I'm not quite a die hard.

I feel that your poll is false... it takes lights, bright reflective clothing, and lane position... and maybe you will be seen at night.

I also wag my handlebars so the light flashes at cross traffic vehicles as I approach intersections.

I don't think any one thing is enough... Light yourself up like Xmas and use every trick in the book to make them see you.

At the distance that they can see my Nova from in the darkness, they could never tell what my lane position was in the first place. If anything's going to punch through a rain-covered windshield and the billowing mist generated by passing semis on wet roads... yeah. I vote for the visibility equipment, good visibility equipment (and plenty of it).

Although even a dinkie-blinkie is a huge step forward from passive visibility alone. I was riding over to my folks' house last night after dark, and encountered one typical roadie rider with a little 3-LED rear blinkie. I spotted him from quite a distance thanks to that blinkie, it was his only visibility merit. And another rider going the other way with a small LED headlight on the strobe setting, which grabbed my eye from about three blocks away.

Lane position might help if it gets me out from behind a physical obstruction so there's an unobstructed line-of-sight between me and the motorist (e.g. a person trying to pull out from a driveway flanked by parked cars might see me sooner if I'm out further in the lane).


Oh, and I do ride year-round, including in darkness, in traffic, with snow & ice as the case may be, and have done so for years.

BTW Bek, I got a Blinky Superflash coming, based on your recommending it :beer: It's a good thing blinkies aren't habit-forming or anything...


*twitch*

At the distance that they can see my Nova from in the darkness, they could never tell what my lane position was in the first place. I vote for the visibility equipment, good visibility equipment. Although even a dinky-blinkie is a huge step forward from passive visibility alone. I was riding over to my folks' house last night after dark, and encountered one typical roadie rider with a little 3-LED rear blinkie. I spotted him from quite a distance thanks to that blinkie, it was his only visibility. And another rider with a small LED headlight on the strobe setting, which grabbed my eye from about three blocks away.

Lane position might help if it gets me out from behind a physical obstruction so there's an unobstructed line-of-sight between me and the motorist (e.g. a person trying to pull out from a driveway flanked by parked cars might see me sooner if I'm out further in the lane).


:beer:

Without any lights or reflectors you won't be seen until the headlights illuminate you unless there is other ambient light. Many drivers overdrive the headlights and can't stop in time if you are a complete surprise.

With reflectors this is earlier and more noticable. With good lights this can be a mile or more on a straight road, long before the headlights would pick you up. Lane positioning is only effective when the driver can see you well enough to determine where you are in the lane. That's more or less when he can see you in the headlights. Lane positionig does have a lot of benefits, but if you can't be seen until the last minute it's a potential problem.

Daylight visible lights can make you seen much earlier in the day too. Taking the lane counts on the driver to not only see you, but to react in time, and correctly.

Lane position might help if it gets me out from behind a physical obstruction so there's an unobstructed line-of-sight between me and the motorist (e.g. a person trying to pull out from a driveway flanked by parked cars might see me sooner if I'm out further in the lane).


Exactly... that's all it does and that's all it is for.

... I don't think any one thing is enough... Light yourself up like Xmas and use every trick in the book to make them see you.

Concur.

In the early 1970s, when I lived in Los Angeles and worked part-time at a bike shop, I frequently returned home in the dark. Lighting technology has come a long way in 30 years, but even back then I made myself pretty visible with French dual C-cell lamps (remember those?) strapped to my left upper arm and left calf, two big red seatstay-mounted reflectors, a 6-volt dual-beam dynamo system, light-colored clothing, and LOTS of red and white reflective tape on the bike, the cranks, and the rear rack. One bike shop customer commented that I was probably more visible to motorists at night than during the day.

I do use lane positioning to enhance my visibility, particularly when rounding a long blind rightward curve in the road.

I do quite a bit of predawn and post-sunset walking and jogging, for which I wear white, have a red blinkie on my backpack, and carry a CatEye halogen lamp, which I sometimes have to wave around to make sure I have motorists' attention.

BTW Bek, I got a Blinky Superflash coming, based on your recommending it :beer: It's a good thing blinkies aren't habit-forming or anything...


*twitch*


yeah ! good thing. :)



dinkie-blinkie

:lol:

What makes this an either/or issue? Good lighting / reflectors are absolutely essential at night. The darker it is the more necessary but sufficiently poor positioning choices can totally defeat any benifit recieved.

Jeff

My work commute is before daylight, on narrow rural highways, with practically no ambient light and very few street lights, and with speed limits up to 55-60 mph. The narrow width of some of these roads necessitates riding in the traffic lane in an assertive lane postion or not riding on the pavement. In other words; the cyclist has to take the lane, by default, on these roads.

On some stretches of this route a cyclist can be seen a mile or more ahead, but at these speeds drivers are overdriving their headlights. I have and use reflective material, but active, redundant lights are the only way to go. Much more important than lane position. The flip side to this is; these roads are so dark, even under a full moon, that any light at all stands out like a beacon.

I run a Cateye TL-LD1000 on the seatpost, a Cateye TL-LD500 on the left rear corner of the trailer, and a Cateye HL-500II for a headlight.

Someone riding in an urban environment may need brighter lights to overpower any ambient light and may have more options as to lane position.

So, my question is to gauge if riders here feel visibility devices like blinkies and reflective tape and vests and the like are more effective for drivers seeing and cognifing bicyclists sooner, or is it lane position that helps more at night?
Riding at night without lights is insane, period.

Who said they use lane-positioning without lights at night?

Who said they use lane-positioning without lights at night?

Be patient it will come. :)

I wasn't sure which was more important at first, but based on others' comments, I have "seen the light" and voted for lights. However, I still consider both important.

Riding at night without lights is insane, period.

Who said they use lane-positioning without lights at night?
+1

Of course, I voted lights are more important. In the dark, without lights or reflectors, using lane positioning to be seen (unless under bright street lights - which is arguably not in the dark), makes no sense.

Why even ask such a question?

Edit: If Bek or anyone else thought I would vote for lane positioning, you're not paying attention. LittleBigMan obviously is paying attention (thank you).

Why even ask such a question?

Edit: If Bek or anyone else thought I would vote for lane positioning, you're not paying attention.
Why not? There is one character on BF constantly harping about the safety value of lane positioning. Never has this character ever addressed the significance of lighting, ambient or artificial, as having the slightest affect on the value and importance of the all important head nods, pedal cadence, body English, alpha dawg eyeballin', etc to be used in conjunction with lane positioning and lane swerving to control motorists behavior in heavy traffic. Nor has he qualified his wacky statements about Body English signaling/lane positioning changes with any comment about lighting/visibility.

My guess is he doesn't have a clue as to what it means to ride a bicycle in any environment but good roads in fair weather or with his club pals on weekend day light rides. And all the wacky theories are a direct result of that lack of experience and a self centered narrow perspective.

My guess is he doesn't have a clue as to what it means to ride a bicycle in any environment but good roads in fair weather or with his club pals on weekend day light rides. And all the wacky theories are a direct result of that lack of experience and a self centered narrow perspective.

Since we all know who we are talking about... I would have to say that he doesn't exactly ride "good roads."

The main drag he rides on is 45MPH mulitlaned traffic and this is connected to an intersection (I think some 6 roads come together) that routinely confuses motorists, who are also very aggressive at certain times as it is the "only" way "out of town." He then hits a 55 MPH area that is lined with parked cars, 6 lanes wide and full of college students. Yeah, "great roads." Frankly, I tend to avoid that latter area... only riding perpendicular to it.

Look, he has good cycling skills... but not everyone does, nor should everyone be expected to ride like that... and that latter statement is really at the heart of many of the conflicts seen here.

Here is one "intersection" of the "good roads."

I know I have written about the benefits of lights and reflectors, but it is so obvious and generally non-controversial that there is little reason to spend much time on it.

Everything I write about lane positioning assumes good visibility conditions which automatically excludes riding in the dark not properly lighted/reflectorized, or even riding in very low visibilty situations like into or away from a low sky sunrise or sunset, thick/low fog, or a dust storm. Even I turn into a slow-moving ped cyclist when riding at night without working lights. Duh.

...when i "have" to drive my car, i notice the lights before i can tell where in the lane a bike is...

Unless it is summertime, at least one of my commutes per day is in the dark, on school days, both of them are, and I put lights as more important than lane positioning. I ride in the right hand half of the lane, (never in the gutter,)and find I rarely ever have cause to take the entire lane, although I know I have the right as a matter of safety and necessity. I use Planet Bike LED lights on front and rear, and cars see me just fine.

You know, I think I would even go a step further in this poll and say that lane position together with lights, is a step toward better safety. So long as your lane position puts you well out of the path of motor vehicles.

From bike headlights or taillights it is difficult to judge the location, size and speed of the bicyclist. I know that I have trouble doing so and I can't imagine I am any different from anybody else.

I feel a lot safer riding at night when in addition to lights and reflectors that I use to try to indicate my size, if I stay well out of the path of traffic. Better to be completely unnoticed without a chance of accidentally being run over than noticed too late.

Better to be completely unnoticed without a chance of accidentally being run over than noticed too late.
What you're talking about is a style of riding that makes the cyclist slightly less likely, if any, to be run over from behind (which is already very unlikely during the day, or even at night with lights/reflectors), and much more likely to be hit by cross-traffic (which is already relatively much more likely to happen than a hit from behind).

What you're talking about is a style of riding that makes the cyclist slightly less likely, if any, to be run over from behind (which is already very unlikely during the day, or even at night with lights/reflectors), and much more likely to be hit by cross-traffic (which is already relatively much more likely to happen than a hit from behind).
Source of these alleged probabilities? Any idea of how these alleged probabilities were derived/fabricated?

Source of these alleged probabilities? Any idea of how these alleged probabilities were derived/fabricated?
Numerous studies recognized not only by Forester, but by cycling experts like John Franklin, Jeffrey Hiles and Robert Hurst, who are not exactly "Foresterites".

Say, was there any point to posting this poll, or is it just another useless attempt to dogpile on HH?
Grasping at straws.:rolleyes:

Plainly, road position means nothing if an approaching driver can't see you. Unless the cyclist takes Diane's advice and completely removes themself from the traffic pattern, guaranteeing they either won't be seen, or won't be seen as relevant, by motorists entering and exiting the roadway.

Actually, I think that cross traffic has a good chance of seeing a cyclist who is anywhere in the traffic pattern so long as he has reflectors on the wheels or reflective sidewalls. I think that reflectors give motorists a huge clue that the lighted object ahead is a bicycle. Knowing what that glowing object represents is as important as simply being seen.

Numerous studies recognized not only by Forester, but by cycling experts like John Franklin, Jeffrey Hiles and Robert Hurst, who are not exactly "Foresterites".
What studies established these alleged probabilities?

Here is one "intersection" of the "good roads."That's supposed to be scary? :p Heck, we have one like that here in Spokane. It's not difficult to ride it.

Add complete darkness to the scene below. This is a photo from a routine commute. Anyone want to try to remark on my lane positioning, when you can't even see lane markings in the first place? ;) Hint: there's only one lane each way here.

http://www.mechbgon.com/morning.jpg

Not everyone lives in California ;)

guaranteeing they either won't be seen, or won't be seen as relevant, by motorists entering and exiting the roadway.The testimonials by BF members who use HID headlights say that motorists entering/exiting the roadway in the dark are often halted by the unknown whatever-it-is with the flickering blue-white light... they don't know what it is, but they're reluctant to pull into its path.

Actually, I think that cross traffic has a good chance of seeing a cyclist who is anywhere in the traffic pattern so long as he has reflectors on the wheels or reflective sidewalls. I think that reflectors give motorists a huge clue that the lighted object ahead is a bicycle. Knowing what that glowing object represents is as important as simply being seen.
Yes, cross traffic has a "good" chance of seeing a cyclist who is anywhere in the pattern.
But, is the chance of their actually noticing (not just "seeing") the cyclist a function of where he is positioned in the traffic pattern?

Chance(cycling being noticed and recognized in the dark) = (cyclist has lights and reflectors) * (cyclist is positioned in traffic pattern where driver is paying attention)

+1

Of course, I voted lights are more important.

Why even ask such a question?


The reason i posed the question, hed? Altruistic desire to know the truth......Because as it gets dark sooner now, those of us that actually ride at night regularily might have some valuable advice and input about night riding, and hoped to start a thread where experienced bicyclists could discourse about the question, 'lights or lane position?'

hed, you spend little or no time addressing visibility independant of lane position.

At night, the book changes chapters.

I wanted to read from people who actually ride at night what the consensus is on the lights/positioning issue. i have opinions on this but wanted to see the opinions of others.

so, i guess helmet head agrees, that the visibility of a well illuminated cyclist at night and very low light conditions is noticable sooner then lane position? because i totally agree, the visibility of a bicyclist runing lights and 'fleccos in low light is noticed much sooner, much, much sooner, and cognified earlier by drivers, than any nuance in lane position.

I'd even go so far as to say lime yellow is much more visible and noticable at a much further distance than lane position, even during the day, but that is another debate and one probably much more evenly arguable for sophistic value.

but this thread, dealing with biking at night, the question remains,

"lights, or lane position? "

what gets a bicyclist cognified and noticed, i.e. "seen", sooner, at night?

...blinkies and reflective tape and vests and the like are more effective for drivers seeing and cognifing bicyclists sooner, or is it lane position that helps more at night?


Bek,
I"m gonna jump in here, cuz it's not just lights and position. Rather it's all about signature. Instead of 'getting you noticed', your signature should:

* Identify you as a bicycle from all sides, not just the back or front
* Give the driver a clue as to your distance, length, and width
* Give the driver a clue about your speed
* Light your own path with enough throw to respond to stupid stuff like skunks and garbage cans

Most bikes have a tiny little LED on a backpack. In hilly country, as you approach from the side, you don't see the guy. From the back, it gives a false impression about distance, size and speed.

Don't be satisfied with 'feel good' lights or lane position. Instead, take the time to have a driver critique your lights at night on the flats, hillls, and bad weather (if possible). It could save your life.

i'm trying, VR, i'm trying! its about time to mount up the flecco sidewall 700x37 slicks once again.....here's the passive 'signature' of two of my bikes from last winter season.

but this thread, dealing with biking at night, the question remains,

"lights, or lane position? "

what gets a bicyclist cognified and noticed, i.e. "seen", sooner, at night?The inescapable logic is that for cognition to occur, and for lane position to have any possible relevance, the cyclist first needs to actually be visible. Period. It's a necessary prerequisite. No viewer can recognize/compute something he can't see. Day or night. This is why <sarcasm> the VC lane-grabbing advocates always emphasize the use of daytime-visible lights and high-impact neon-lime outer layers whenever they promote their preferred riding style. </sarcasm>

For nighttime visibility, I'm with genec, consider using every trick in the book. And if you do that, then it can make lane position a moot point, because the cyclist ends up being visible at such a long range in darkness that the viewer can't tell what the cyclist's lane position is. Even production blinkies like the common Cateye LD1000 or NiteRider are plenty powerful to show from 1/2 mile in darkness. There are plenty of decent headlights visible from the front arc of the bike that likewise are visible from much further than anyone could accurately identify your lane position.

Real-world test: I locked my Cannondale to a road sign on a dark country road with one NiteRider blinkie and one Cateye LD1000 running, then got in my car and drove up the road, turned around, and came back while shooting video from inside the car. Coming over the rise at 45mph, I could easily see the blinkies from about 1/2 mile away. At that distance, it would be ludicrous to claim that I could tell whether the bike was in the traffic lane, on the shoulder, or (in fact) six feet off the roadway. I simply cannot see the road itself that far away, and therefore I cannot tell exactly where the lights are on the road. These are two production blinkies that anyone can buy, they're not one-off custom stuff like my Nova.

I hope to high heaven that by the time any overtaking motorist gets close enough to actually discern what my precise lane position is in darkness, he/she already has the car on an avoidance course thanks to the massive advance notice that my visibilty equipment is providing him/her. As for motorists in front of me, I do have the luxury of an HID headlight, but even without HID per se I have to attach a lot of importance to baseline visibility. It isn't unreasonable to expect cyclists riding in darkness to use a headlight, a front blinkie, and to wear white or neon-lime outer layers.

Add complete darkness to the scene below. This is a photo from a routine commute. Anyone want to try to remark on my lane positioning, when you can't even see lane markings in the first place? ;)

This photo is a perfect example of a red tail light being visible before you even know a vehicle is there.
Look at how far away the car tailights show up in the poor visibility. You can see a red dot before you can even tell that dark spot is a car.

This photo is a perfect example of a red tail light being visible before you even know a vehicle is there.
Look at how far away the car tailights show up in the poor visibility. You can see a red dot before you can even tell that dark spot is a car.Ahh, and you remind me of your thread demonstrating a couple of production blinkies at 1/4-mile range (http://www.bikeforums.net/showthread.php?t=207885). Namely a $15 Flare/BLT SuperDoppler and a $30 Cateye LD1000. What's the lane position of the bike in the pic below... can an observer even ID it as a bike? Bikes don't have lights that bright... do they??? :D Naw...

http://www.bikeforums.net/attachment.php?attachmentid=19149&d=1151884900

i'm trying, VR, i'm trying! its about time to mount up the flecco sidewall 700x37 slicks once again.....here's the passive 'signature' of two of my bikes from last winter season.

Bek, If you still wear that Hunter's vest mentioned in other thread, it's agood start. But those Seattle chowder-heads need to know which direction you're heading. So...lots of red for that back - white for the front.

With today's light weight batteries, you can wire a nice HID and an a strobe on the front and back very cheaply.

Ahh, and you remind me of your thread demonstrating a couple of production blinkies at 1/4-mile range (http://www.bikeforums.net/showthread.php?t=207885). Namely a $15 Flare/BLT SuperDoppler and a $30 Cateye LD1000. What's the lane position of the bike in the pic below... can an observer even ID it as a bike? Bikes don't have lights that bright... do they??? :D Naw...

http://www.bikeforums.net/attachment.php?attachmentid=19149&d=1151884900

Naw........:D

Some day I will get about a mile away or a least 1/2 mile, but I'm not going to leave my bike that far away without another rider to watch it.
Group ride tomorrow night, I'll try and recruit a helper. The guy that has the Cat eye 1000, two nice planet bike blinkers on each pannier, and amber turn signals and a red brake light. His bike looks like a Gold Wing from the back. Especially when he blasts his Air zound. Oh.....and the lights on the valve caps. I guess I need to post a pic of him too.

Three blinkies, two handlebar lights, reflecterized gear from head to toe. I hope that's enough.

I think my Planet Bike "Blinky Superflash" will arrive tomorrow. Watch the Commuting forum for comparison pics and video when I get home ~7PM Pacific Time :)

Three blinkies, two handlebar lights, reflecterized gear from head to toe. I hope that's enough.

If you bike in bumper to bumper traffic, it may not be enough. Regardless, better get a confirmation on that.

I think my Planet Bike "Blinky Superflash" will arrive tomorrow. Watch the Commuting forum for comparison pics and video when I get home ~7PM Pacific Time :)

Keep your eye on the cheetah

Real-world test: I locked my Cannondale to a road sign on a dark country road with one NiteRider blinkie and one Cateye LD1000 running

Have you tried to duplicate your test on something besides a "dark country road"? I'm concerned that standard blinkies will be overwhelmed by ambient lighting (retail lighting, other vehicles, street lights, etc.) in an urban environment.

I used to commute on dark country roads and felt comfortable with my lighting/reflector choices (cars would sometimes pull alongside and tell me that I was "lit up like a Christmas tree"). But, now that I need to commute across town in traffic, I'm not sure if the blinkies will be sufficient.

Keep your eye on the cheetahNever leave the cheetah alone with the donuts.

Have you tried to duplicate your test on something besides a "dark country road"? I'm concerned that standard blinkies will be overwhelmed by ambient lighting (retail lighting, other vehicles, street lights, etc.) in an urban environment.

I used to commute on dark country roads and felt comfortable with my lighting/reflector choices (cars would sometimes pull alongside and tell me that I was "lit up like a Christmas tree"). But, now that I need to commute across town in traffic, I'm not sure if the blinkies will be sufficient.That's a valid point. If you're interested in something besides "standard" blinkies, then you might want to check out my Nova project: http://www.bikeforums.net/showthread.php?t=202062 Setting one up the way I did it, powered by a NiMH 9.6-volt RC-car battery, will set you back about $90. It completely obliterates the Cateye LD1000 or NiteRider superblinkies, see comparison pics below, showing a Cateye LD1000 versus a Nova.

In an urban environment, before I cooked up my Nova "megablinkie," I used multiple superblinkies (the NiteRider plus the Cateye LD1000); multiple reflectors; reflective tape plastered all over my commuting bike's frame, fenders & rims; reflective legbands; a self-illuminating PolyBrite reflective vest and self-illuminating reflective belt; my HID headlight; an amber sidemarker blinkie facing sideways on each front pannier; plus a neon-lime jacket most of the time. If I could sew worth a darn, I would've put stripes of reflective tape down the arms of my riding jacket too.

In the urban environment, I didn't do video testing and I don't have anyone that can ride my bike around in heavy traffic while I observe them from my car. But it's a good idea, maybe I can get a co-worker to help with that :)

BTW the two pics below are frames from this video clip that compares some blinkies: http://freepages.thesecretlabs.com/~mechbgon/MEGABLINKIE.wmv

my vote is lights (two in the front and two in the back) and a good visible lane position... although I think lights are the most important of the two

If you bike in bumper to bumper traffic, it may not be enough. Regardless, better get a confirmation on that.
I have a blinkie on my helmet. Might that work?

I also wag my handlebars so the light flashes at cross traffic vehicles as I approach intersections.



Gene, not only do I do the light waggle, at some unsigned intersections where there are uncontrolled lefts and a vehicle is slotting up for crossing my path potentially, i'll waggle the lights, and also ride directly towards the vehicle and driver while repositioning.

this does three things- gets me and my bike further into the lane, floods the driver with lights and blinkies, and allows for more expedited potential swerve to the left to avoid a driver still turning in front.

In the urban environment, I didn't do video testing and I don't have anyone that can ride my bike around in heavy traffic while I observe them from my car. But it's a good idea, maybe I can get a co-worker to help with that :)

When I first got a Flare/Superdoppler I had a friend who got one at the same time. We went out and did about 60 miles in the dark. It was too blinding to ride close behind another bike with these lights.
We found a straight road with steady traffic. The bike lights stood out from 1/2 mile away against the car tail lights because it was a lot brighter, it was flashing all the time not at the speed of a car blinker, and it lit up the trees phone wires houses etc. Even when it was below the horizon you could see reflections on trees etc. as it went down hill and was aimed up at the trees. I don't know if my original thread with them on top of my car with the tailights still has the pictures in it. It almost blocks out the car lights (the old Flare). The tight focus cone of the flare gets less severe at a distance and the bike moves a little so it aims right at you once in a while anyway.

Exactly. The driver cannot tell exactly where you are. So you need a signature that shows the outline of yourself and bike. Helping the driver perceive your width and length helps the driver to judge your distance.

My real world test is a sea of bumper to bumper traffic. So of course cute red blinkies don't work well. I use the amber strobe instead. It's not perfect but it does help
Real-world test: I locked my Cannondale to a road sign on a dark country road ...At that distance, it would be ludicrous to claim that I could tell whether the bike was in the traffic lane, on the shoulder, or (in fact) six feet off the roadway.



Cyclezealot it might be good for a driver try to see you in traffic.
I have a blinkie on my helmet. Might that work?