mechBgon
09-24-06, 01:29 AM
So it's Saturday night and the stars are coming out. I'd just finished sticking some reflective tape to the rims of my Cannondale loaded-touring bike, and decided heck, I want to ride up Highway 195 to Spangle tonight.
:)
I grabbed most of my visibility arsenal.
Bright-colored jacket with white sleeves
ANSI Class III reflective vest
Reflective legbands, two of which are LED-illuminated
Reflective wristbands
Self-illuminating reflective belt
BOTH of my NiteRider light systems, the HID and the dual-beam halogen
A single Planet Bike SuperFlash on the rack bag (strobing)
My NiteRider superblinkie on my chainstay (steady-fire)
My new Planet Bike Blinky 5 on my helmet's RocLoc crossband (flashing)
And of course the Nova on the rear rack, running quad-flash. w00t!
...plus the bike's fenders are coated with DOT Class 2 Conspicuity Tape like you see on semi trailers, and it has two big DOT rear reflectors, and the new reflective tape on the rims.
http://freepages.thesecretlabs.com/~mechbgon/arsenal.jpg
a flash shot by my trusty Canon
Summary: dork city :) But whatever, I'm old enough not to care. I also packed a peanut-butter sandwich (creamy) and a Thermos of coffee, because this was a 37mi / 60km ride.
http://freepages.thesecretlabs.com/~mechbgon/bar.gif
The Ride, Part 1: Divided Highway
Highway 195 is a divided highway going up the grade towards Spangle. There are two traffic lanes on each side of the divided highway, plus a full-lane shoulder. It's mostly straightstretches separated by gentle corners, so sight distances are great. Going up the grade, I decided to observe the general reaction to my rather spectacular visibility equipment while riding at the rightmost edge of the full-lane shoulder. Motorists were overtaking me with probably a 50mph / 80kph speed differential. Because of my extreme-right position on the shoulder, a car going up the center of the right lane would be something like 5-6 meters to my left. On this part of the ride, I was probably passed by ~100-150 cars.
http://freepages.thesecretlabs.com/~mechbgon/divided.jpg
my, Grandmother, what big shoulders you have!
Results on divided highway
I didn't keep precise stats, but I'd estimate that over 90% of overtaking motorists changed from the right traffic lane to the left lane well in advance of passing me. That's despite my already being waaaay over at the right edge of a huge shoulder, where some people would say I'd be "irrelevant." For some of the motorists, I counted the approximate seconds between their lane changes and their passing me. Generally they were changing lanes between 15 and 30 seconds back, which would be around 350-700 meters back, but some even further.
Of the motorists that didn't change lanes, it seemed there were two trends. (1) they had a short line-of-sight to me {I stopped in a corner to see how the reactions might change**, or (2) they were following another motorist who hadn't changed lanes to pass me either. Some were boxed in and couldn't change lanes. Of those that didn't change lanes, most of them did edge over to the lane marker, and a few were observed to move partway over the lane marker.
Almost none of the motorists seemed to slow down, as best I could judge from engine noise as they came up the grade. One car did slow down to about 35mph AND change lanes; I think it was old folks.
My off-the-cuff conclusions
This really shoots holes in the idea that a significant percentage of motorists mentally fail to "compute" stuff on the shoulder (or bike lane) as "relevant" because of it being located on the shoulder; or to put it another way, because it's not definitely in their vehicle's physical path. >90% "confirmed-kill" ratio, as evidenced by them changing lanes to get an additional lane between themselves and something on the furthest edge of the shoulder, pretty much clinches it. The fact that it's an unusually-powerful visibility system is beside the point; they're moving over, despite it NOT being in their vehicle's physical path, and despite it being on the shoulder. Of the remaining ~10% that didn't do an actual lane change, most did move away from me.
It also underlines what I've been saying around here: particularly in the dark, a good visibility solution can be effective at very long range, waaaay longer than the range at which a motorist can get visual confirmation that yep, it's a bicycle and it's definitely in my own lane. Using center-of-lane positioning would be pretty pointless, because by the time the motorists get to me, they've been in the other lane for 1/4 to 1/2-mile already. To get into their vehicle's path, I'd have to pull into the left lane myself.
From the fact that the motorists didn't seem to be slowing down, I doubt I was being viewed as a hindrance.
http://freepages.thesecretlabs.com/~mechbgon/bar.gif
The Ride, Part 2: two-way highway
After Highway 195 gets up onto the plateau, it eventually merges into two-way highway with one lane in each direction, plus a somewhat-narrower shoulder varying mostly from 2 to 3 meters wide. I kept riding near the right edge of the shoulder and kept observing motorists.
http://freepages.thesecretlabs.com/~mechbgon/2way.jpg
two-way highway just outside Spangle
Results on two-way highway
After the divided highway merged into two-way highway, almost none of the motorists made a lane change into the oncoming lane in order to pass me. That's despite my being a bit closer to them, due to the shoulder getting a bit narrower. I kept on up the highway past Spangle, then stopped for a snack break.
My thoughts on these results
Notice the contrast. Given two lanes in their direction, motorists changed lanes. Given just one lane in each direction, they didn't. Nothing else really changed... same visibility equipment, same overall group of motorists. My conclusion: you can't always judge whether you've been seen by what the motorists do with their cars. I'm sure just as many of them saw the Nova, etc, from just as far away, but almost none of them gave the previous reaction because of the lack of another traffic lane to move into.
http://freepages.thesecretlabs.com/~mechbgon/bar.gif
The Ride, Part 3: The Snack Break
I stopped and took a posed photo of the Good Ship Cannondale, then ate my peanut-butter sandwich and had some coffee before heading back.
http://freepages.thesecretlabs.com/~mechbgon/snack_break.jpg
slow-shutter shot with some flashlight illumination to show the reflective tape
Results of the snack break
Peanut-butter sandwiches never go out of style. And a full Thermos of coffee can remain sufficiently hot, even after riding for a couple hours at night, that it's NOT a good idea to spill it on your leg!
My conclusions from the snack break
Next time, I'm going to bring TWO sandwiches and be a little more cautious with that coffee.
And then I rode back the way I came, and kept observing the motorists on both the 2-way and divided highway, and rode up the dangerous Hatch Road climb along with the folks heading home from a Saturday night on the town.
So take that for what you will. It's real-world data that must be accounted for by any hypothesis hoping to graduate to a theory.
http://freepages.thesecretlabs.com/~mechbgon/resting.jpg
The Cannondale on the chargers after its big adventure. You can see most of its visibility features here. Note the NiteRider superblinkie on the chainstay, I stuck it down there for this ride to give additional vertical "spread" between the lights.
:)
I grabbed most of my visibility arsenal.
Bright-colored jacket with white sleeves
ANSI Class III reflective vest
Reflective legbands, two of which are LED-illuminated
Reflective wristbands
Self-illuminating reflective belt
BOTH of my NiteRider light systems, the HID and the dual-beam halogen
A single Planet Bike SuperFlash on the rack bag (strobing)
My NiteRider superblinkie on my chainstay (steady-fire)
My new Planet Bike Blinky 5 on my helmet's RocLoc crossband (flashing)
And of course the Nova on the rear rack, running quad-flash. w00t!
...plus the bike's fenders are coated with DOT Class 2 Conspicuity Tape like you see on semi trailers, and it has two big DOT rear reflectors, and the new reflective tape on the rims.
http://freepages.thesecretlabs.com/~mechbgon/arsenal.jpg
a flash shot by my trusty Canon
Summary: dork city :) But whatever, I'm old enough not to care. I also packed a peanut-butter sandwich (creamy) and a Thermos of coffee, because this was a 37mi / 60km ride.
http://freepages.thesecretlabs.com/~mechbgon/bar.gif
The Ride, Part 1: Divided Highway
Highway 195 is a divided highway going up the grade towards Spangle. There are two traffic lanes on each side of the divided highway, plus a full-lane shoulder. It's mostly straightstretches separated by gentle corners, so sight distances are great. Going up the grade, I decided to observe the general reaction to my rather spectacular visibility equipment while riding at the rightmost edge of the full-lane shoulder. Motorists were overtaking me with probably a 50mph / 80kph speed differential. Because of my extreme-right position on the shoulder, a car going up the center of the right lane would be something like 5-6 meters to my left. On this part of the ride, I was probably passed by ~100-150 cars.
http://freepages.thesecretlabs.com/~mechbgon/divided.jpg
my, Grandmother, what big shoulders you have!
Results on divided highway
I didn't keep precise stats, but I'd estimate that over 90% of overtaking motorists changed from the right traffic lane to the left lane well in advance of passing me. That's despite my already being waaaay over at the right edge of a huge shoulder, where some people would say I'd be "irrelevant." For some of the motorists, I counted the approximate seconds between their lane changes and their passing me. Generally they were changing lanes between 15 and 30 seconds back, which would be around 350-700 meters back, but some even further.
Of the motorists that didn't change lanes, it seemed there were two trends. (1) they had a short line-of-sight to me {I stopped in a corner to see how the reactions might change**, or (2) they were following another motorist who hadn't changed lanes to pass me either. Some were boxed in and couldn't change lanes. Of those that didn't change lanes, most of them did edge over to the lane marker, and a few were observed to move partway over the lane marker.
Almost none of the motorists seemed to slow down, as best I could judge from engine noise as they came up the grade. One car did slow down to about 35mph AND change lanes; I think it was old folks.
My off-the-cuff conclusions
This really shoots holes in the idea that a significant percentage of motorists mentally fail to "compute" stuff on the shoulder (or bike lane) as "relevant" because of it being located on the shoulder; or to put it another way, because it's not definitely in their vehicle's physical path. >90% "confirmed-kill" ratio, as evidenced by them changing lanes to get an additional lane between themselves and something on the furthest edge of the shoulder, pretty much clinches it. The fact that it's an unusually-powerful visibility system is beside the point; they're moving over, despite it NOT being in their vehicle's physical path, and despite it being on the shoulder. Of the remaining ~10% that didn't do an actual lane change, most did move away from me.
It also underlines what I've been saying around here: particularly in the dark, a good visibility solution can be effective at very long range, waaaay longer than the range at which a motorist can get visual confirmation that yep, it's a bicycle and it's definitely in my own lane. Using center-of-lane positioning would be pretty pointless, because by the time the motorists get to me, they've been in the other lane for 1/4 to 1/2-mile already. To get into their vehicle's path, I'd have to pull into the left lane myself.
From the fact that the motorists didn't seem to be slowing down, I doubt I was being viewed as a hindrance.
http://freepages.thesecretlabs.com/~mechbgon/bar.gif
The Ride, Part 2: two-way highway
After Highway 195 gets up onto the plateau, it eventually merges into two-way highway with one lane in each direction, plus a somewhat-narrower shoulder varying mostly from 2 to 3 meters wide. I kept riding near the right edge of the shoulder and kept observing motorists.
http://freepages.thesecretlabs.com/~mechbgon/2way.jpg
two-way highway just outside Spangle
Results on two-way highway
After the divided highway merged into two-way highway, almost none of the motorists made a lane change into the oncoming lane in order to pass me. That's despite my being a bit closer to them, due to the shoulder getting a bit narrower. I kept on up the highway past Spangle, then stopped for a snack break.
My thoughts on these results
Notice the contrast. Given two lanes in their direction, motorists changed lanes. Given just one lane in each direction, they didn't. Nothing else really changed... same visibility equipment, same overall group of motorists. My conclusion: you can't always judge whether you've been seen by what the motorists do with their cars. I'm sure just as many of them saw the Nova, etc, from just as far away, but almost none of them gave the previous reaction because of the lack of another traffic lane to move into.
http://freepages.thesecretlabs.com/~mechbgon/bar.gif
The Ride, Part 3: The Snack Break
I stopped and took a posed photo of the Good Ship Cannondale, then ate my peanut-butter sandwich and had some coffee before heading back.
http://freepages.thesecretlabs.com/~mechbgon/snack_break.jpg
slow-shutter shot with some flashlight illumination to show the reflective tape
Results of the snack break
Peanut-butter sandwiches never go out of style. And a full Thermos of coffee can remain sufficiently hot, even after riding for a couple hours at night, that it's NOT a good idea to spill it on your leg!
My conclusions from the snack break
Next time, I'm going to bring TWO sandwiches and be a little more cautious with that coffee.
And then I rode back the way I came, and kept observing the motorists on both the 2-way and divided highway, and rode up the dangerous Hatch Road climb along with the folks heading home from a Saturday night on the town.
So take that for what you will. It's real-world data that must be accounted for by any hypothesis hoping to graduate to a theory.
http://freepages.thesecretlabs.com/~mechbgon/resting.jpg
The Cannondale on the chargers after its big adventure. You can see most of its visibility features here. Note the NiteRider superblinkie on the chainstay, I stuck it down there for this ride to give additional vertical "spread" between the lights.
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