Living Car Free - Humans Living Far Beyond Planet's Means

I think you're underestimating the impact of peak and post-peak oil. Agriculture is far more oil intensive than it was before the "green revolution", back in the 1950s and 1960s, when we feared we couldn't feed more than 3 billion. We can now feed 6 billion because of much higher-yield crops, but these are heavily dependant on petrochemical fertilizers, and on mechanized cultivation, harvesting and distribution. By the time the oil crunch gets intense, there may be 9 billion to feed, but as oil gets "more expensive" (ie. scarcer) agricultural production will start to decline. If the earth could feed 3 billion in the pre-oil age, it will feed fewer than that in the post-oil age because of soil depletion and degradation. High yield crops won't help if the soil can't nourish them. The "recovery and adjustment" you speak so casually of could be as rocky as much of the farmland will be.


You're absolutely right to say that the agricultural industry can't feed billions more. We're going to have to switch to scientific organic farming on a small scale basis to feed the people of the future. That will be a large part of "the "recovery and adjustment" [I] speak so casually of.' But there's a chance that it can be done. A lot of recent research predicts that small organic farms can feed many more than the current 6 billion in a sustainable fashion. For example, here's a quote from a paper by a professor at UC-Berkely, Christos Vasilikiotis, Ph.D. called 'Can Organic Farming "Feed the World"?' (http://www.cnr.berkeley.edu/~christos/articles/cv_organic_farming.html):



Our current world food production is more than sufficient to provide an adequate diet to all humans, yet more than 840 million people are suffering from hunger. Hunger is a problem of poverty, distribution, and access to food. The question then, is not "how to feed the world", but rather, how can we develop sustainable farming methods that have the potential to help the world feed and sustain itself. Organic management practices promote soil health, water conservation and can reverse environmental degradation. The emphasis on small-scale family farms has the potential to revitalize rural areas and their economies. Counter to the widely held belief that industrial agriculture is more efficient and productive, small farms produce far more per acre than large farms. Industrial agriculture relies heavily on monocultures, the planting of a single crop throughout the farm, because they simplify management and allow the use of heavy machinery. Larger farms in the third world also tend to grow export luxury crops instead of providing staple foods to their growing population. Small farmers, especially in the Third World have integrated farming systems where they plant a variety of crops maximizing the use of their land.

This is one reason that I say it is better to continue to search for solutions rather than just decide we're already doomed. If interested, here's a Google search page (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=future+organic+farming+feeding+billions) with some more articles on the topic.

'Can Organic Farming "Feed the World"?' (http://www.cnr.berkeley.edu/~christos/articles/cv_organic_farming.html):
Very good article, thanks.

Thanks for sharing that article. I have somewhat gotten away from buying organic (oh- maybe 10%), but after reading this article, I'll have to start looking at this again!

Thanks for sharing that article. I have somewhat gotten away from buying organic (oh- maybe 10%), but after reading this article, I'll have to start looking at this again!
I think that's a good idea, and it's something I've been trying to do lately too. I figure that by making wise food choices, I do even more to help the planet than I do by being carfree. You might want to look into organic food produced by small, local farmers. Local means very little fossil fuel is used in transporting the food, and organic means no use of fertilizer produced from petroleum and natural gas. Small-scale farmers are usually kinder to the land, because they plan to farm in the same location for many years.

It encourages me to remember that in parts of southern China, intensive organic agriculture has been sustained for at least 3000 years, even with dense populations throughout that time. The same is true in southeast Asia, India, Egypt, Iraq and Central America. I really do think there is hope for humanity IF we can change our ways--both as individuals and as societies.

Bikes instead of cars, and local organic food--just two small steps--might not be that difficult or traumatic to implement. Somebody has to lead the way. Why not us?

[O]rganic agriculture is described by the United Nations Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO) as "a holistic production management system which promotes and enhances agro-ecosystem health, including biodiversity, biological cycles, and soil biological activity." (emphasis added) That is something I'd really like to see happening, and not just by a diligent few...

This is not, btw, the definition of Organic that is used when labeling food at the grocery store.

That is something I'd really like to see happening, and not just by a diligent few...

This is not, btw, the definition of Organic that is used when labeling food at the grocery store.
It IS happening. Burlington VT is getting more than 10 % of their total food supply from organic gardens within the city limits. I know this is just a pilot project, just a baby step, but it demonstrates that a lot can be done, even in an American city.

The best thing we can do to "see this happening" is to seek out and purchase locally grown organic food. It is available, it can be cost-effective for urban families, and the quality of the food is usually MUCH better than the stuff that's been shipped hundreds of miles to your supermarket.

BTW--as for labeling--if you know the grower, you know the conditions of the food he/she grows. You can even ride out to the farm and see for yourself. These people love to talk about their product, and they're good at explaining the whole concept as well as the details.

You may be right, Roody, that may be the best we can do. I certainly wouldn't dissuade anyone from buying locally grown, holisitically sustainable food. This doesn't change that I'd still like to see it happening, and not just by a diligent few.