Living Car Free - What may happen in the next 100 years

From the Ladies' Home Journal, December 1900.

“These prophecies will seem strange, almost impossible. Yet, they have come from the most learned and conservative minds in America. To the wisest and most careful men in our greatest institutions of science and learning I have gone, asking each in his turn to forecast for me what, in his opinion, will have been wrought in his own field of investigation before the dawn of 2001 - a century from now. These opinions I have carefully transcribed.”

http://www.yorktownhistory.org/homepages/1900_predictions.htm

This is a very interesting article. I thought the predictions were mostly on target. The predictions that were wrong are, in a way, more interesting than the ones that were right.

Gymnastics will begin in the nursery, where toys and games will be designed to strengthen the muscles. Exercise will be compulsory in the schools

Well, in Japan perhaps but not the USA.

Some of these are amazing!


Man will See Around the World. Persons and things of all kinds will be brought within focus of cameras connected electrically with screens at opposite ends of circuits, thousands of miles at a span.

the internet and satellites.

Well, in Japan perhaps but not the USA.
Actually, it is happening in the US.
My son, who is 19 months old, had plenty of toys that were designed for physical development. And all of the ones he has now are the same. If you really take a look at childrens toys you will see it. They are being designed for physical and mental developement. Which is a big difference from the toys of my childhood which actually contained gun powder and projectiles.

A man or woman unable to walk ten miles at a stretch will be regarded as a weakling.
I think this is the biggest missed prediction. The writer was quick to see the advantages of automobiles but he didn't foresee the development of "car dependency syndrome".

think about it though, how much of the average population, in the states at least, is already "weak"?

Prediction #6: Automobiles will be cheaper than horses are today. Farmers will own automobile hay-wagons, automobile truck-wagons, plows, harrows and hay-rakes. A one-pound motor in one of these vehicles will do the work of a pair of horses or more. Children will ride in automobile sleighs in winter. Automobiles will have been substituted for every horse vehicle now known. There will be, as already exist today, automobile hearses, automobile police patrols, automobile ambulances, automobile street sweepers. The horse in harness will be as scarce, if, indeed, not even scarcer, then as the yoked ox is today.
When they say "automobile" I wonder if they mean the 4-wheel variety with internal combustion engines or the 2-wheeled self-propelled unit? At the time of these predictions, bicycles were in wide distribution throughout Europe and the US. Suddenly, travel beyond walkable distances was possible w/o the expense of owning a horse. The era of the 4-wheeler hadn't yet happened. Just think, if it wasn't for Henry Ford, this forum might now be called the "bike-free" forum :)

...The era of the 4-wheeler hadn't yet happened. Just think, if it wasn't for Henry Ford, this forum might now be called the "bike-free" forum :)
Car-wise, things were already happening very fast in the late 1890s.

"On the evening of March 6, 1896, a Benz car appeared on the streets of Detroit. Ford followed it around on his bicycle. Three months later, he produced the Quadricycle, a four-wheel, tiller-steered car with two forward speeds and no reverse. He sold it to get the money to build his second car."

http://www.promotex.ca/articles/cawthon/2001/10-15-2001_article.html

By the way, Henry Ford continued to ride a bike recreationally until late in life.

Car-wise, things were already happening very fast in the late 1890s.
Seems like a very interesting time, technology-wise. I guess because there was no heavy investment in infrastructure, things were moving very fast. Even the designs of bicycle changed enormously in the 20 years between 1880 - 1900. Since that time, the basic design of bicycles hasn't really changed that much.

It seems like when we get a basic design, like the diamond frame bicycle or the 4-wheel automobile chassis, we go with it and just continue to engineer it to death. That's how we go to the point of carbon fiber forks and auto air-conditioning.

think about it though, how much of the average population, in the states at least, is already "weak"?

most of it

...Even the designs of bicycle changed enormously in the 20 years between 1880 - 1900...
Case in point:

Wright Cycle Exchange
1005 West Third Street
Dayton, Ohio

http://www.first-to-fly.com/History/Just%20the%20Facts/wright_bicycles.htm

"The Wright brothers introduced two inventions on their bicycles. The Van Cleve came with a special "self-oiling hub." Dayton only had 12 miles of paved streets in those days and the dust played havoc with bicycle bearings, causing them to wear quickly. The Wrights sealed the bearings with felt washers and created an oil reservoir inside the hub, cutting down on maintenance...

"In 1900, the Wrights announced a "bicycle pedal that can't come unscrewed." ... Wilbur and Orville used right-hand threads on one pedal post and left-hand threads on the other so the pedaling action tended to tighten both pedals."

Fun thread! Interesting to note that Harley-Davidson was still making bicycles then. I believe that 1903 was the year they rolled out their first motorcycle.

>>>>Prediction #4: There Will Be No Street Cars in Our Large Cities. All hurry traffic will be below or high above ground when brought within city limits. In most cities it will be confined to broad subways or tunnels, well lighted and well ventilated, or to high trestles with “moving-sidewalk” stairways leading to the top. These underground or overhead streets will teem with capacious automobile passenger coaches and freight with cushioned wheels. Subways or trestles will be reserved for express trains. Cities, therefore, will be free from all noises.<<<<

The prediction on the fate of street cars was spot on! They predicted the motorcar would run in underground tunnels freeing the cities from all noises. They could not have been more wrong as the motorcar simply replaced the streetcar making the streets noisy, polluted and dangerous.

US invades Canada for their large oil supplies
http://www.oilcareer.com/images/albian6.jpg

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2006/01/11/canadian-oil060111.html

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2006/01/11/canadian-oil060111.html

I found it interesting that they predicted that flying vehicles would be used as powerful military devices (correct) that would be used for almost no freight and passenger travel (incorrect). The prediction was that, instead, trains would be able to take you from the atlantic to the pacific in a day and a half. It seems to me that 250 mile per hour trains would be feasible and much cheaper than air travel-- and also not really slower for trips under 500 miles.

I found it interesting that they predicted that flying vehicles would be used as powerful military devices (correct) that would be used for almost no freight and passenger travel (incorrect). The prediction was that, instead, trains would be able to take you from the atlantic to the pacific in a day and a half. It seems to me that 250 mile per hour trains would be feasible and much cheaper than air travel-- and also not really slower for trips under 500 miles.

Actually, it does exist, just not in the US. France has the TGV which can go 340 mph (but in commercial use it only does 200 mph so far).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TGV

If only we had that in the US. Heck, even 200 mph would get you from Boston to NY city in just over 1 hour!

Don't know how feasible this is for rail travel but they've gotten rocket propelled sleds (on rails) to travel 6000+ mph. If they could control it at 1,000 mph and somehow limit the acceleration force, that'd be pretty insane and might actual have an effect on interstate travel.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocket_sled

Yeah, look up bullet trains, europe and japan has plenty of them.

And those flying machines they were talking about were airships, which you probably know better as Blimps. I beleive they already had these to some extent, so it's not really that suprising.

Prediction #11: No Mosquitoes nor Flies. Insect screens will be unnecessary. Mosquitoes, house-flies and roaches will have been practically exterminated. Boards of health will have destroyed all mosquito haunts and breeding-grounds, drained all stagnant pools, filled in all swamp-lands, and chemically treated all still-water streams. The extermination of the horse and its stable will reduce the house-fly.


why haven't we exterminated the horse? I think its about time horses paid the piper.

It is true, have horses, have bugs.

why haven't we exterminated the horse? I think its about time horses paid the piper.

Hopefully we've learned enough to know that elminating flies and mosquitos could have dire unforseen consequences.

Is this authentic? Prediction #2 mentions that people will live to fifty instead of the present thirty-five? Life spans haven't really changed in thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of years, dispite what commercials would have you believe. It's around 72 on average.
Outside of disease & accidents.
I could see maybe predicting a lifespan of 100+ but in 1900 someone living into there 60's was quite common, they would think dying at 35 was unusual.

Is this authentic? Prediction #2 mentions that people will live to fifty instead of the present thirty-five? Life spans haven't really changed in thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of years, dispite what commercials would have you believe. It's around 72 on average.
Outside of disease & accidents.
I could see maybe predicting a lifespan of 100+ but in 1900 someone living into there 60's was quite common, they would think dying at 35 was unusual.

Might be a bit of poetic license if you will, however since 1900 the average age (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr54/nvsr54_14.pdf) has gone from 47.3 to 77.5 a gain of 30 years.

Aaron:)

It's around 72 on average.
Outside of disease & accidents.
Uh, disease and accidents are most of what make up Life Expectancy... without disease and accidents, every country would have the same LE, and it would be well into the 80s. Discounting disease and accidents from age of death is like discounting bullet wounds and bomb blasts from casualties in a war.

Might be a bit of poetic license if you will, however since 1900 the average age (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr54/nvsr54_14.pdf) has gone from 47.3 to 77.5 a gain of 30 years.

Aaron:)

I think the big jump in LE that the US experienced in the 20th century would be principally due to the introduction of the "miracle drugs" (antibiotics and vaccines) in the 20s & 30s. Also lets not discount much better regulation on the food & water supply.

Preventing thousands of pre-mature deaths due to diarrhea in infants does wonder for a countries overall LE.

I think the big jump in LE that the US experienced in the 20th century would be principally due to the introduction of the "miracle drugs" (antibiotics and vaccines) in the 20s & 30s. Also lets not discount much better regulation on the food & water supply.

Preventing thousands of pre-mature deaths due to diarrhea in infants does wonder for a countries overall LE.

As well as a major reduction in the number of people killed in the work place...And I suspect the reduction in "hazzardous" jobs ie; Manufacturing. Kind of hard to get killed sitting behind a desk all day. However we may have made up for that statistic in our traffic fatalities:( but those are holding pretty steady at the moment. Numbers/statistics are interesting things...;) According to my risky lifestyle I should have died several times over in the past 30 years:eek: :p ;)

Aaron:)

People who die at ages over 80 also die mostly of things considered diseases- heart disease, cancer, stroke, etc.

Platy, this thread was interesting. Maybe you should start a thread that predicted the future from the year 2000 instead of 1900. I bet the predictions would be even wilder.

Platy, this thread was interesting. Maybe you should start a thread that predicted the future from the year 2000 instead of 1900. I bet the predictions would be even wilder.
The take-away lesson is that a lot can change in a hundred years. It's not safe to assume that in 2100 people will be living in much the same way as we do today.

The take-away lesson is that a lot can change in a hundred years. It's not safe to assume that in 2100 people will be living in much the same way as we do today.
I'm originally from a province of Canada that was very hard-hit in 1992 when the entire fishing stock disappeared suddenly. Indirectly, it forced me out to the US midwest. So, I'd have a good idea how quickly things can change. I read pundits who warn what will happen when oil runs out or the climate changes and I remember how radically altered things were for us in 1992. It would be like Iowa suddenly running out of corn. Yes... this would be a good takeaway from this thread.

Is this authentic? Prediction #2 mentions that people will live to fifty instead of the present thirty-five? Life spans haven't really changed in thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of years, dispite what commercials would have you believe. It's around 72 on average.
Outside of disease & accidents.
I could see maybe predicting a lifespan of 100+ but in 1900 someone living into there 60's was quite common, they would think dying at 35 was unusual.

Remember, the percentage of deaths at birth or at a very young age was much greater back then. If you had someone who was 70 years old and a child that dies a 4 days old, that's an average age of 35. (And yes, that's how they counted it)

http://www.yorktownhistory.org/homepages/1900_predictions.htm

One of the biggest oversights I saw was that computers and the Internet were totally unanticipated.

One of the biggest oversights I saw was that computers and the Internet were totally unanticipated.

Actually, read it again. They do have some quotes that work with information sharing over the internet.

"Man will See Around the World. Persons and things of all kinds will be brought within focus of cameras connected electrically with screens at opposite ends of circuits, thousands of miles at a span."