Living Car Free - Elections are over-gas prices are up

Is it any co-incidence that gas prices fell dramatically before the November elections last year in the USA and that now they are rising up again? I am not into politics very much so maybe this question is irreverent. Also not having a car it is of minor concern to me. It just seems kind of fishy to me though.

Not to get political here, but yes, gas prices do fall dramatically before each election to try to woo voters into voting for the political party that supports the oil companies. Guess which party that would be? :rolleyes:

Hi All-

Prices are essentially controlled by the market and it's all a matter of supply and demand. You want to do a part in helping push prices down? Purchase $10.00 of gas and drive with a quarter-tank rather than filling it to the brim. Who hasn't topped-off their tank when getting ready for a holiday weekend? I think that politics play a far smaller role in gasoline/heating oil costs than we realize.

~ Blue Jays ~

Hi All-

Prices are essentially controlled by the market and it's all a matter of supply and demand. You want to do a part in helping push prices down? Purchase $10.00 of gas and drive with a quarter-tank rather than filling it to the brim. Who hasn't topped-off their tank when getting ready for a holiday weekend? I think that politics play a far smaller role in gasoline/heating oil costs than we realize.

~ Blue Jays ~
But you'll still be buying the same amount of gas.
For every time you do that, there would be 3 other people doing the same thing since they didn't buy it all at once...

Hi mastershake916-

Fuel economy peaks as a vehicle nears empty because the car is at its lightest. For many vehicles, this could be a 100-pound variation...for trucks, even twice that amount. From a convenience viewpoint, it's a pain-in-the-butt, but it does reduce overall demand and it doe result in improved overall fuel mileage. BTW, 916 as in Ducati? CBR pilot here...

~ Blue Jays ~

Hi mastershake916-

Fuel economy peaks as a vehicle nears empty because the car is at its lightest. For many vehicles, this could be a 100-pound variation...for trucks, even twice that amount. From a convenience viewpoint, it's a pain-in-the-butt, but it does reduce overall demand and it doe result in improved overall fuel mileage. BTW, 916 as in Ducati? CBR pilot here...

~ Blue Jays ~
I guess that makes sense - but I've always heard you get your best mileage when it's full. I'm not sure of the reasoning behind it though.

Well remember for the firsst time since the 70's demand for oil had not increased for a spell not sure how long after 3 dollar gas.
It reminds me of a ski lodge. Only they wait for summer.

I guess that makes sense - but I've always heard you get your best mileage when it's full. I'm not sure of the reasoning behind it though.

That's probably true on rear wheel drive cars with a longitudinal transmission and driveshaft shaft. For every one degree in universal joint angle, it causes a three hp parasitic drag, and there are two or three univeral joints on those type of vehicles. Most car manufacturers of these type of cars have factored in universal joint angles for a vehicle with a full tank of fuel. A vehicle with lighter fuel load would have a steeper universal joint causing more parasitic drag, and a decrease in fuel mileage on steady, flat surface driving. In constant stop and go driving, the lighter fuel load should negate the decrease in fuel mileage caused by the parasitic drag of the steeper driveshaft and universal joint angle.
Automotive basics 101 is now dismissed. ;)

Is it any co-incidence that gas prices fell dramatically before the November elections last year in the USA and that now they are rising up again? I am not into politics very much so maybe this question is irreverent. Also not having a car it is of minor concern to me. It just seems kind of fishy to me though.
Write a letter to the editor at your local newspaper. They love to print this tin hat "fishy" conspiracy stuff.

- i hope gas goes up even more... that's more incentive to *not* drive (although we haven been a 'no-commute' household for more than a year now - myself since '97)...

Write a letter to the editor at your local newspaper. They love to print this tin hat "fishy" conspiracy stuff.
Other "fishy" concepts:
* the US is in Iraq to secure oil supplies
* the US is now eyeing Iran for the same reason
* the world oil price is controlled by a cartel
* lapses in oil supply would have a catastrophic effect on the West
Yeah, feel free to write your editor on any of the above.

Oops ... just thought of another conspiracy topic:
* your gasoline purchases go indirectly (probably through Saudi Arabia...) to finance Osama bin Ladin.
Otherwise, what has he been living on all these years. Apparently, he was as poor as dirt in 1998, but now manages to fund a worldwide terror network.

They had a guy from UCAN (?) on the radio yesterday. He said prices do indeed go down before elections and up afterwards. He said it wasn't probably presidential or party politics, but that the various actors in oil production (the oil companies, the oil-producing countries) in general didn't want oil to be on the radar when people were set to do their voting.

They had a guy from UCAN (?) on the radio yesterday. He said prices do indeed go down before elections and up afterwards. He said it wasn't probably presidential or party politics, but that the various actors in oil production (the oil companies, the oil-producing countries) in general didn't want oil to be on the radar when people were set to do their voting.

Ah, so the price is not based strictly on supply and demand. There are a handful of corporations that sell retail gasoline in the US. It is not difficult for them to coordinate prices when they see fit.

They had a guy from UCAN (?) on the radio yesterday. He said prices do indeed go down before elections and up afterwards. He said it wasn't probably presidential or party politics, but that the various actors in oil production (the oil companies, the oil-producing countries) in general didn't want oil to be on the radar when people were set to do their voting.
I heard a piece on NPR about a month ago saying something similar, it went into detail about the price of crude and percentage of gasoline output from the refineries showing that the people who ran the refineries maxed the gasoline output just before the elections, now they have to make up the reduced inventories of the other products and produce less gasoline.

Ah, so the price is not based strictly on supply and demand. There are a handful of corporations that sell retail gasoline in the US. It is not difficult for them to coordinate prices when they see fit.Yes, within limits. Its not like they're rolling the prices back to 1970 prices -- just suppressing them a few pennies a couple weeks to make people feel like things are getting better. This sort of micro-manipulation happens all the time. Look at all the car dealerships and mattress stores that have "sales" every President's day. :)

I read that the current price increases are occurring much more rapidly than past increases. And there's no Katrina, 9/11, new war or other crises to explain the current increases.
and you really have to wonder about the impact on the stock market, which has been tanking.

There is a world oil market that explains many of the fluctuations. But it is not a free market by any means. There are many manipulations on both the supply side and the demand side that influences prices. Some of these manipulations are legal or "fair" but many are not.

Hi All-

Prices are essentially controlled by the market and it's all a matter of supply and demand. You want to do a part in helping push prices down? Purchase $10.00 of gas and drive with a quarter-tank rather than filling it to the brim. Who hasn't topped-off their tank when getting ready for a holiday weekend? I think that politics play a far smaller role in gasoline/heating oil costs than we realize.

~ Blue Jays ~
Have you ever considered not driving at all? That thought has occurred to a few of us on this carfree forum! ;)

Hi mastershake916-

Fuel economy peaks as a vehicle nears empty because the car is at its lightest. For many vehicles, this could be a 100-pound variation...for trucks, even twice that amount. From a convenience viewpoint, it's a pain-in-the-butt, but it does reduce overall demand and it doe result in improved overall fuel mileage. BTW, 916 as in Ducati? CBR pilot here...

~ Blue Jays ~
Sorry, just area code.
I guess that weight can make a difference.

Thank you.

... that the people who ran the refineries maxed the gasoline output just before the elections

I've heard several news reports of that as well. Normally refineries concentrate on producing gasoline up through Labor day (Summer Mode). Then they switch to making home heating oil (Winter mode). Last year reports say they kept the refineries running full tilt in Summer mode through the fall election season flooding the market with excess gasoline.

Those of you who heat your home with oil are very lucky it has been a very mild Winter 'cause I don't think there was a lot of excess supply out there.

I read that the current price increases are occurring much more rapidly than past increases. And there's no Katrina, 9/11, new war or other crises to explain the current increases.
and you really have to wonder about the impact on the stock market, which has been tanking.

There is a world oil market that explains many of the fluctuations. But it is not a free market by any means. There are many manipulations on both the supply side and the demand side that influences prices. Some of these manipulations are legal or "fair" but many are not.

If you are talking about the price increases in the recent weeks, and I get your location (michigan) correctly, the explanation is simple. Ontario suffered two fires at refineries about two weeks ago that knocked esso's (a division of exxon) refinery capacity to a fraction of it's normal ability to produce. Coupled with an unrelated problem in Montreal and a CN railway strike Ontario had (not sure if they still do) dozens, if not a hundred service stations with no gasoline in the last few weeks.

Some gasoline might have been shipped across the border - but standards in michigan are different than ontario, but it is likely that a lot of people from windsor to sarnia were taking their cars across the border to fill up (more than usual that is).

If you want to find a conspiracy in this latest runup (about 20% increase in Toronto, about 10% in calgary), it's that refinery capacity is extremely tight - which makes gasoline prices quite volatile. The exacerbating factor is that when people see the price increasing - they panic, fill up their tank (particularly if they see stations shut down because of a lack of gas), causing a spike in demand and a commensurate increase in prices.

If people were rational actors they would avoid buying gas when it's expensive and only buy it when it's cheap (below a certain amount). The drivers of America (and any other place) have this power - but they refuse to stop driving in response to price signals. However - the price of gas is just a small fraction of people's gross (and disposable incomes), so they drive no matter what the cost is (look at the UK, etc).

If people were rational actors they would ...
Who wants to talk about rationality when they can sniff out a fishy conspiracy instead?

To be clear - I don't think there is any conspiracy - it's pretty obvious that refineries are capital intensive, difficult to get permits to build, and have been terrible investments for years. The oil companies (ESSO in this case) are mandated to turn a profit and they will not make investments that are useless. If motorists really wanted to reduce the price of gas - they just have to use less (however oil can be used for a lot of stuff - so you might just shift production to other things). However - no matter what the price of gas is - if you use less of it, you'll be spending less.

I for one spent about 200 - 400 cdn on gas last year (only because I drove from toronto to calgary - cost split between two).

The official word from the Energy Information Administration:

"World oil markets tightened in recent weeks in response to production cuts by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the return of cold winter weather in North America...

"Average monthly motor gasoline prices are expected to increase by nearly 40 cents per gallon from February ($2.28 per gallon) through June, peaking at $2.67 per gallon. Rising crude oil prices and seasonal demand are the principal drivers for this expected increase...

Link (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html)

So the official explanation is that higher gas prices are largely due to decreased supply (OPEC oil production cuts) and increased demand (recent cold winter weather in the US). Over at TheOilDrum they have been debating why OPEC production cuts are occurring. That is, if they can sell oil at historically high prices, why are they cutting back? No clear answer has yet emerged from that debate.

That's probably true on rear wheel drive cars with a longitudinal transmission and driveshaft shaft. For every one degree in universal joint angle, it causes a three hp parasitic drag, and there are two or three univeral joints on those type of vehicles. Most car manufacturers of these type of cars have factored in universal joint angles for a vehicle with a full tank of fuel. A vehicle with lighter fuel load would have a steeper universal joint causing more parasitic drag, and a decrease in fuel mileage on steady, flat surface driving. In constant stop and go driving, the lighter fuel load should negate the decrease in fuel mileage caused by the parasitic drag of the steeper driveshaft and universal joint angle.
Automotive basics 101 is now dismissed. ;)
thanks :)

http://robert.ettinger.com/uploaded_images/The_More_You_Know-775718.jpg

The official word from the Energy Information Administration:

"World oil markets tightened in recent weeks in response to production cuts by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the return of cold winter weather in North America...

"Average monthly motor gasoline prices are expected to increase by nearly 40 cents per gallon from February ($2.28 per gallon) through June, peaking at $2.67 per gallon. Rising crude oil prices and seasonal demand are the principal drivers for this expected increase...

Link (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html)

So the official explanation is that higher gas prices are largely due to decreased supply (OPEC oil production cuts) and increased demand (recent cold winter weather in the US). Over at TheOilDrum they have been debating why OPEC production cuts are occurring. That is, if they can sell oil at historically high prices, why are they cutting back? No clear answer has yet emerged from that debate.

Oh,OK. that's makes sense. I do have a general mistrust of politicians so I was just curious.

If you are talking about the price increases in the recent weeks, and I get your location (michigan) correctly, the explanation is simple. Ontario suffered two fires at refineries about two weeks ago that knocked esso's (a division of exxon) refinery capacity to a fraction of it's normal ability to produce. Coupled with an unrelated problem in Montreal and a CN railway strike Ontario had (not sure if they still do) dozens, if not a hundred service stations with no gasoline in the last few weeks.
But the prices went down before elections and up after ... in states like CA which have their own refineries and seaway access to fuel. And it has happened repeatedly. And individuals from consumer action groups (not just conspiracy freaks) like UCAN have recognized the trend.

The idea that the "free market" controls everything down to the last penny is clearly untrue. Oil producers have some latitude in how they "tune" the price of their products. To paraphrase Randolph Hearst "Free markets are for those who own one"

Conspiracies do happen ... especially whenever things are decided by a small groups of people. It doesn't require fraternal organizations or secret handshakes -- just a few people with power and a need to keep it that way. Remember the ADM price-fixing scandal? Or the developer who succesfully bribed representative Cunningham to prevent laws getting passed? Or Enron creating "real and imaginary shortages" to gouge the State of California. The conspiracies that are caught are just the tip of the iceberg.

Gosh, refinery fires in Canada too? They claimed the same thing in CA a couple years back. You wouldn't expect these places to be routinely catching fire 100 years into the technology cycle.

So the official explanation is that higher gas prices are largely due to decreased supply (OPEC oil production cuts) and increased demand (recent cold winter weather in the US). Over at TheOilDrum they have been debating why OPEC production cuts are occurring. That is, if they can sell oil at historically high prices, why are they cutting back? No clear answer has yet emerged from that debate.

Because they have always thought that prices at this level would cause major economic disruption. Now that they know this is not the case anymore they are just going to keep prices at this level from now on.

Because they have always thought that prices at this level would cause major economic disruption. Now that they know this is not the case anymore they are just going to keep prices at this level from now on.
That could be true. If so, OPEC will have to answer to Dick Cheney. (Isn't Saudi Arabia in need of a bit of democratization?) They would also be running the risk of triggering a move to conservation, energy alternatives and development of new supplies. When that happened before, it collapsed the price of oil for 15 years and badly hurt the OPEC countries. It coincided with the mother of all economic booms here in the US. If that's what OPEC is up to, I'm all in favor.

More disturbing to me is the possibility that OPEC (Saudi in particular) simply can't produce quite enough oil to meet the demand. Right now, no one knows for sure.

Oh,OK. that's makes sense. I do have a general mistrust of politicians so I was just curious.
That's OK. You came to the right place to stir up a buzz about the oil swilling evil doers and their nefarious plots and webs of deceit. Facts are irrelevant when there is a whiff of a conspiracy, eh?

Not to spoil a good conspiracy theory, but aren't all federal US elections always held in November? Isn't this the time when people take the least vacations? (After summer, before christmas).

As much as I'd like to believe GWB and his cronies could manipulate the price of gas, we are talking about a guy who drove his own oil company into the ground. You'd think if he could manipulate fuel prices then he would have been able to manipulate his financial statements to make his company successful.

Not to spoil a good conspiracy theory, but aren't all federal US elections always held in November? Isn't this the time when people take the least vacations? (After summer, before christmas).

As much as I'd like to believe GWB and his cronies could manipulate the price of gas, we are talking about a guy who drove his own oil company into the ground. You'd think if he could manipulate fuel prices then he would have been able to manipulate his financial statements to make his company successful.But its not GWB -- its a conglomerate of interested parties who recognize the value of not being in the scopes during election times. They would do the same thing no matter which party was in the Whitehouse. Once again, there are lots of examples of conspiracies including ones involving energy -- everything from Teapot Dome to Enron.

The alternative is to say that the oil companies and producers are helpless: They have no control -- not even a few pennies worth -- over the price of oil products. Believing that would take more faith than believing in a mild, temporary conjunction of interested parties.

Based on the least-vacations theory, we would expect a study drop in prices after New Years. Doesn't seem to happen.

More disturbing to me is the possibility that OPEC (Saudi in particular) simply can't produce quite enough oil to meet the demand. Right now, no one knows for sure.

This is also true, except for the saudi part. Saudi is the only place with any spare capacity right now. When a demand spike happens, instead of supplies increasing the price increases. This is not perement, but it's going to take a few years for more capacity to be added. They are making moves towards steam injection in the middle east now.

One problem is the oil goverments. They spend all the oil money and don't invest in future production, Mexicos big field is in decline but they don't allow forein investment. Just pray the fools in congress don't create a Mexican system here.

http://www.axcessnews.com/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=13167

This next link is thought to be a plot to destroy us.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html

Some really cool tech here. Supertrains to move natural gas around and deep sea drilling with everything on the seafloor.

http://www.geoilandgas.com/businesses/ge_oilandgas/en/newsletter/og_news_nov2006/bellamy.html

Digital imaging is another cool thing. Now when they drill the bits have all kinds of sensors and have fiberoptic connections to big computers that can map out the fields to find the best place to get the most oil. They can also us it in old fields like gawhar that have been flooded with seawater to keep pressure up. The water can form damns that block the oil, using this they can put new wells in the correct position to get at this oil.

Not to spoil a good conspiracy theory, but aren't all federal US elections always held in November? Isn't this the time when people take the least vacations? (After summer, before christmas).

As much as I'd like to believe GWB and his cronies could manipulate the price of gas, we are talking about a guy who drove his own oil company into the ground. You'd think if he could manipulate fuel prices then he would have been able to manipulate his financial statements to make his company successful.

That's what I say, the price declines were because of the end of the driving season and because the gulf production and refining were coming back online.

Around here gas prices kept dropping with the lowest prices being in late Jan, early Feb. They have slowly risen a bit, but are still at prices lower than they were in Nov (by my recollection, I could be wrong). Anway, there is more than the least vacation theory to support price movements. Much of the NE uses oil to heat their homes...this increases demand for oil, and hence gas prices go up. This is especially true for Diesel...Diesel is very often much less expensive in summer due to this very reason. Anyway, with the globalization of the oil markets, I very much doubt that any US politicians could impact the price of oil dramatically for anything other than very short periods of time.

That's what I say, the price declines were because of the end of the driving season and because the gulf production and refining were coming back online.

Sorry man, I gave a quick scan to see if someone else had brought it up and missed your post. I'm in total agreement though.

I think the idea of collusion among oil execs is pretty hard to believe. These guys are always looking for a leg up on each other and getting them to all cooperate to the point where they could even try to manipulate prices is highly unlikely. Even if they could come to an agreement, they would still have to try to control the price of oil, the demand for gas, the cost of refining (which includes electricity, labour, transportation,etc) all the while why trying to meet shareholder expectations for dividends and stock value.

The nicest thing for me, is until I noticed this post, I havent even noticed gas prices. I mean, I have driven my car twice in a month and a half (Not completely carfree). Therefore I havent even gone to the gas station yet. It is so nice not driving.

The nicest thing for me, is until I noticed this post, I havent even noticed gas prices. I mean, I have driven my car twice in a month and a half (Not completely carfree). Therefore I havent even gone to the gas station yet. It is so nice not driving.
:beer: The only time I notice is when I see it on the news, or hear co-workers whining about it.

:beer: The only time I notice is when I see it on the news, or hear co-workers whining about it.
Now that's the truth. There is a local television station in Charleston, SC that twice a day just has to tell you where the lowest gas prices in the tri-county area are. Jeeze Louise are people actually stupid enough to drive 30 miles to a different area to save a nickel a gallon?:eek: I unfortunately still use fuel/gas, but I don't agonize over the price and really don't worry much about it at all. I don't like it, I have no control over the price, only the amount I use, so why worry about it.:p I am working my way out of my current job to one that will allow me to go car lite and spend more time at home where I can devise other methods of energy savings and general thrifty living.:D

Aaron:)