How to roll back "progress"

[gerv]

I've been reading Bill McKibben "Enough". In it, he discusses the need to roll back our progress in some technologies as these prove harmful to our way of life.

The fly in the ointment though is that McKibben couldn't really come up with great examples of this happening in history. One example was the introduction of gunpowder and guns in Japan in the 1500s. The technology took off like wildfire, but, after a period of time, Japan banned guns and moved back to the traditional weapon... the sword. This ban lasted some 300 years.

As I read about this, I wondered how the Age of the Automobile might someday evolve into the Age of Something Else. Naturally, the bicycle would be a good fit here, particularly in the US where cities are quite spread out and walking significant stretches would be difficult.

However, I can't imagine how this would happen... how the vast majority of people would say something like "I'm sick of cars, I think I'll bike to work today or maybe I'll take the bus..." Still, if we don't pull back from cars at some point, out society may be in real trouble.

Can you picture how this "roll back" would happen?

[Icycle]

Here's an interesting essay that speculates about what might happen if a significant prortion of the Saudi Arabian oil production were to suddenly go offline, and how people might have to adapt very quickly to a world with a lot less oil:

http://www.newcolonist.com/dim_ages.html

[Platy]

Can you picture how this "roll back" would happen?
Urban infill, more working out of our homes, organized private education to restore the idea of the neighborhood school, the return of extended families living together or at least in the same neighborhood, teenagers not being routinely given cars and gas as soon as they reach driving age, these are just a few thoughts.

[kf5nd]

I can absolutely picture how it could happen. It's called "involuntarily".

Dead cars in the driveways with no gas in 'em. Dead cars in the streets near gas stations.

Peak Oil is coming.


Can you picture how this "roll back" would happen?

[Platy]

I can absolutely picture how it could happen. It's called "involuntarily".

Dead cars in the driveways with no gas in 'em. Dead cars in the streets near gas stations.

Peak Oil is coming.

I'm going to call the peak when the Living Car Free sub forum has a couple hundred lurkers logged on all the time.

[Juilin]

I can absolutely picture how it could happen. It's called "involuntarily".

Dead cars in the driveways with no gas in 'em. Dead cars in the streets near gas stations.

Peak Oil is coming.

Indeed +1 Major change is nearly always a result of a certain amount of absolute necessity brought upon by the "involuntary."

[Kimber]

I'm going to call the peak when the Living Car Free sub forum has a couple hundred lurkers logged on all the time.

I read somewhere that by the time everyone has figured out there's a problem it's too late to do anything about it.

I think that we are facing dramatic changes in our means of transportation, I can't say when.

[gerv]

I was wondering how it would work as a social phenomenon. What I see is a "retro" nostalgia. You see a little of this where young people in the 21st century are listening to music from the 1970s. Thank god that phenomenon has included a return to those clothing styles. In terms of rolling back the Auto Age is that we've really been in it for more than anyone's lifetime, so nostalgia is not a possibility. So I can't figure how that would exactly play out.

Another thought is that the Fitness phenomenon becomes so rampant in out society that people would rather walk or bike to the store than drive. If I recall, there were many fewer "exercise nuts" in the 1970s or before. Imagine if they were to continue growing as a population while at the same time treadmills were recognized as boring. They would be forced to start using the sidewalks!

[Artkansas]

Nope. It's an old fantasy. I bet when we moved into caves there were folks complaining about how we were better off in the trees and that fire was a terrible thing because it caused large grass fires and made the cave all smoky and cooked food just wasn't as good as the berries mom used to pick.

The good old days just were never that good. Eliminate cars and go back? Want to be swerving all the time to avoid the road apples left by horses?

People go towards what they percieve to be a better situation. We'll give up the car when we percieve it to be worse. That will take some mighty good public transit and urban planning that favors bikes

[genericbikedude]

Rome fell. So will we, but harder, and globally.

[Nightshade]

I've been reading Bill McKibben "Enough". In it, he discusses the need to roll back our progress in some technologies as these prove harmful to our way of life.

The fly in the ointment though is that McKibben couldn't really come up with great examples of this happening in history. One example was the introduction of gunpowder and guns in Japan in the 1500s. The technology took off like wildfire, but, after a period of time, Japan banned guns and moved back to the traditional weapon... the sword. This ban lasted some 300 years.

As I read about this, I wondered how the Age of the Automobile might someday evolve into the Age of Something Else. Naturally, the bicycle would be a good fit here, particularly in the US where cities are quite spread out and walking significant stretches would be difficult.

However, I can't imagine how this would happen... how the vast majority of people would say something like "I'm sick of cars, I think I'll bike to work today or maybe I'll take the bus..." Still, if we don't pull back from cars at some point, out society may be in real trouble.

Can you picture how this "roll back" would happen?

All anyone has to do is look and research how Cuba has delt with the suspension of Russian oil.
In fact the cuban were done a great favor when the embago hit many years ago. They are now
fully ready for both peak oil and global warming.

http://globalpublicmedia.com/articles/657

http://www.energybulletin.net/13171.html

http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/8/3/174536/0138

[Roody]

We probably won't abandon the idea of progress. We'll move on to new technologies and we'll return to old technologies, including bikes. With any luck, we'll finally figure out that happiness is not determined by how much you want, but by what you do with what you need.

Malcolm Gladwell wrote that change in a system is gradual until a "tipping point" is reached, and then things change more rapidly.

I think that will happen wih cars. I do believe that we will abandon cars, because of peak oil and global warming. I think this will be a fairly gradual process over the next 30 to 50 years, then all of a sudden we'll look around and say, "Gee, I wonder what happened to all the cars."

Here are some of the steps I would expect:

More expensive gas leads to demand for more efficient vehicles.
Ethanol is tried, but will be a total failure.
People will pass taxes and stricter regulaions to lessen use of liquid fuels.
Conservation will include making most trips by bike, foot and public transit, while people continue to use cars for some trips (the carlite stage).
Cars will be banned in central ciies.

[gerv]

Here are some of the steps I would expect:

More expensive gas leads to demand for more efficient vehicles.
Ethanol is tried, but will be a total failure.
People will pass taxes and stricter regulaions to lessen use of liquid fuels.
Conservation will include making most trips by bike, foot and public transit, while people continue to use cars for some trips (the carlite stage).
Cars will be banned in central ciies.



At some point, I think you will see a lot of cars around, but not many of them being used. You will probably see many old American cars in backyards and in garages, but they will be too expensive to run in the way most people use cars today. You'll probably see more bikes, mopeds, small motocycles, maybe electric cars and other, newer devices. Some people will enjoy the bicycle as a "retro" device, but maybe a lot of people will prefer something like a skateboard or something.

[Roody]

Oh, to the OP, an example of "rolling back progress" might be the home fronts in World War II. In order to conserve materials for the armed forces, civilians drastically curtailed and conserved. Examples include gas rationing, more bike use, scrap drives, recycling foil and cans, victory gardens and home canning, and many more.

[gerv]

Roody, that's a good example. Another might be the way in which we rolled back our interest in nuclear energy when it was discovered that the design of many plants were somewhat unsafe. A catastrophe like 3 Mile Island really changed people's opinion -- and quickly. However, it was easier to step back from nuclear power because we had viable alternatives. In the case I describe above, we would really have to sell folks on the notion of bicycles, public transportation or whatever devices would replace automobiles. That would probably be a much more difficult "sell".

[Platy]

Some technologies abandoned or rolled back due to unforeseen side effects:

CFCs and Halon
DDT
Tetraethyl lead
X-ray machines in shoe stores

Some technologies abandoned due to unfavorable economics or inability to sustain:

Supersonic passenger planes
Saturn V booster
Manned lunar missions

[bragi]

Urban infill, more working out of our homes, organized private education to restore the idea of the neighborhood school, the return of extended families living together or at least in the same neighborhood, teenagers not being routinely given cars and gas as soon as they reach driving age, these are just a few thoughts.

I don't have to tell you that, among 13-17 year olds, the idea of being voluntarily carfree is not a popular one. When I bring the idea up in class, as I sometimes do, there's usually a short, shocked silence, followed by laughter at the sheer craziness of such an idea. (They won't say it to my face, usually, but most of my students, and their parents, think my carfree lifestyle is, well, dorky.)

[wahoonc]

Some technologies abandoned or rolled back due to unforeseen side effects:

CFCs and Halon
DDT
Tetraethyl lead
X-ray machines in shoe stores

Some technologies abandoned due to unfavorable economics or inability to sustain:

Supersonic passenger planes
Saturn V booster
Manned lunar missions

I won't miss Carbon Fiber either:roflmao: People think I am nuts on some things because I really prefer the old methods and tools for doing some things. Fortunately in most things I do I was taught the old manual way using old tools how to do something, then graduated to the newer power stuff. Kids today jump straight into the newest method. Not all technological advances are great, in fact as Platy pointed out some were as step backwards. Another wonderful item that needs to be added to that list would be Asbestos:( fantastic product but with bad health issues. I would love to see a roll back in the use of chemicals in our food and water supplies. Sometimes I think they create them just to create a market for them.

Aaron:)

[dynodonn]

I don't have to tell you that, among 13-17 year olds, the idea of being voluntarily carfree is not a popular one. When I bring the idea up in class, as I sometimes do, there's usually a short, shocked silence, followed by laughter at the sheer craziness of such an idea. (They won't say it to my face, usually, but most of my students, and their parents, think my carfree lifestyle is, well, dorky.)


I remember an economics instuctor I had in college saying that gasoline was going to go over 50 cents a gallon and would be in short supply, and all of his students, myself included, responded very much the same way that your students did. About a year later after that remark was made, the first oil embargo hit.

[davidmcowan]

Tightwad,

Thanks for those articles, the Cuban one fascinated me. So much so I may be putting in a apartment garden this year!

[gerv]

Some technologies abandoned or rolled back due to unforeseen side effects:

CFCs and Halon
DDT
Tetraethyl lead
X-ray machines in shoe stores

Some technologies abandoned due to unfavorable economics or inability to sustain:

Supersonic passenger planes
Saturn V booster
Manned lunar missions
Supersonic passenger planes would be a good example of what I am looking for -- a technology like cars that went out of style. These planes were thought to be the real answer to crossing the Atlantic, but they proved to be too expensive and too many side effects (sonic booms....). But I suspect when you really look at it, most passengers were not willing to hand out that much money to fly from New York to Paris. The time savings just wasn't worth it.

I suspect something like that may happen to air travel. A lot of people will discover that waiting in airports, lost luggage, high prices, crappy service is just not worth it. I imagine a time in the future when, once again, you can cross the Atlantic by boat (which I have done and would highly recommend... a real eye opener!).

For automobiles, you would have to see the price of gas increase substantially, city gridlock continue to grow and maybe angst over the environment might take over big time. What actually might happen is that people start seeing the advantage of using bicycles ( or something like them...) for trips in the 1 - 10 miles range and possibly walking in the sub-mile range. However, we are probably a ways off on that happening...