Living Car Free - $4-a-gallon gas is coming to a pump near you

Roody-

Business conducted one hundred years ago in 1907 was done on a much more local basis and we can't roll back the clock. As far as your claim that people "traveled as far then as they do now" is simply inaccurate. By comparison, I've been to Pacific Rim and European countries on business on many occasions. The number of Americans living in 1907 who traveled overseas was a distinct minority.

~ Blue Jays ~
Actually, in 1907, many people in America were from overseas. This was when immigration was at it's height. In fact, everybody who ever lived in America originally traveled here from another continent. (yes, including the Indians.) The population was just as mobile then as it is now. Did you read about westward expansion and manifest destiny?

...in 1907...
Travelling before the auto/air age wasn't as casual or widespread as it is now. People could certainly travel as far as they wanted in 1907, but it was a big project.

Around 1870, Americans caught the travel bug. Of course only a few privileged people could manage an around the world cruise, but travel was a hot topic in all the magazines and on the lecture circuit. A prime example is Mark Twain's book The Innocents Abroad.

Link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innocents_Abroad)

In the 19th century international business was conducted in large part through trusted personal agents who carried powers of attorney and letters of credit. Communication by telegraph and mail was also used. The network of traveling agents was very important to how business was transacted. They would often run across each other at major hotels and ports.

Paid $3.45 for middle grade at the cheap place here in Los Angeles. See $3.60 + for middle grade all the time around here. I expect to see $4.00 gas this summer for sure.

yup, the US by proxy employs tens of thousands TCN's in Iraq, these are people that have left their home countries to find temporary work in another country............you get desperate enough, you'll move really really far

There is a huge difference, between someone who lives 30 miles from work, so they can have a 3,000sqft McMansion, on a quarter acre lot, and someone who moves 10,000 miles to another country for work. The person moving 10,000 miles is probably going to live well within 5 miles of work, more then likely more like a mile or two.

There is a huge difference, between someone who lives 30 miles from work, so they can have a 3,000sqft McMansion, on a quarter acre lot, and someone who moves 10,000 miles to another country for work. The person moving 10,000 miles is probably going to live well within 5 miles of work, more then likely more like a mile or two.


Why would you assume that? The mentality of many around here is that jobs come and go and they should not base a housing purchase upon their employment situation. It's not what I would do, but is the answer I get each time I recommend someone move closer to their job.

Read page 51 of this survey:
http://www.valleymetro.org/Rideshare/News_&_Events/Research/2005%20TDM%20Annual%20Survey%20FINAL%20pdf%20format%20doc.pdf

20% of those who said current gas prices (at survey 2005 time) do not affect commute choice said gas price will never affect commute choice.

Al

Having this story in mind, it really depresses me with the job I am doing tonight.
/me hangs his head in shame

Only you are keeping yourself there. There is life beyond. Wouldn't you rather be designing the next generation of brifters? It used to depress me doing military contracts. Now it doesn't, because I don't. :)

That's only a 12.6 mile radius. Think bigger. How many employees live 20 miles away? (1,256 square miles) 30? (2,827 square miles)
It's really amazing how the extravagant incineration of the most beneficial resource in the history of the human race shrinks these distances. People really do believe that they can't find a better job than the one they have within the two or three thousand square miles surrounding home. That's either spectacular laziness or high standards on a massive level. If the gas stops flowing, these masses are going to be in for some tough times. Such is life.


I don't think gas will just stop flowing, on a long term basis, without it getting horrid expensive first. Gas will become unaffordable, long before the supply runs out. What will happen, is that demand outstrips supply, that forces the price up, some people can't afford it anymore, move back into the city, where they can take transit, bike, motorcycle or scooter to get around, demand drops a little and supply starts to catch up, except that the supply isn't able to catch up completely, so prices continue to increase, another group of people can't afford it anymore, so they repeat the cycle.

Know who are really going to be hard hit, the banks, the first couple of cycles will probably lose much of their money invested, in that they will get enough to cover the mortgage, but, what happens when you have a $250,000 mortgage on a house that brings in $125,000, if your lucky. You walk away, and let the bank foreclose, they can send the Escalade in the driveway, to the leasing company, who will not be able to get anything for it either:D

In the city, older homes, that are on large lots, built when energy was cheap, will be bought up by developers, who will tear them down, to build new, high density, energy efficient housing. Many cities will see populations double. Transit will become a big priority.

Weldman, it would make sense that automotive enthusiasts desire clean air, clean water, and reliable energy, just like anyone else living on this planet. Read the interesting article and comment here. As an aside, trusted newspapers like The Wall Street Journal have often quoted Csaba Csere (the author) for his expertise on fuel supply.

There is a huge difference, between someone who lives 30 miles from work, so they can have a 3,000sqft McMansion, on a quarter acre lot, and someone who moves 10,000 miles to another country for work. The person moving 10,000 miles is probably going to live well within 5 miles of work, more then likely more like a mile or two.

and the person owning the 3000sq ft McMansion will at some point give up that McMansion and freakin move, sometimes sacrifices have to be made, and its much easier to prepare and make these decisions voluntarily rather than have them forced on you........thats what happens with TCN's, they have no choice

Why would you assume that? The mentality of many around here is that jobs come and go and they should not base a housing purchase upon their employment situation. It's not what I would do, but is the answer I get each time I recommend someone move closer to their job.

I always find that funny, most people know that if they leave a job in the city, their new job, is likely to be in that same city, so why the heck do they want to live in a village 35 miles away from the city, in a place where there is no ready access to the city, except to drive. Simple, a 3000sqft McMansion on a 1/4 acre lot, and then of course the only vehicle suitable for one person to drive that 35 miles solo, is the biggest gas guzzling SUV they can find, then they have the audacity to complain about gas prices........

In many countries, you either live, work, socialize and play within a 5 sq mile area, and it's been like that for millenia, or you do live in that village 35 miles away, but walk, bike or scooter to the train station, because there is a train that goes on a regular basis.

The reason people need cars is because they might need to travel forty miles away to have lunch with important clients, review a slideshow presentation, verify network configurations, and sign contracts before returning home. All this might need to be done while it is -5* Fahrenheit outside with 25 m.p.h. winds. This same business professional might also have a 9% bodyfat percentage, ride 250 miles per week, and have a resting heartrate of 50 beats per minute. In fact, I'm very confident that can be the case.

The number of Americans living in 1907 who traveled overseas was a distinct minority.

It still is today. I would like to see a comparison just for the hell of it.

^^ that same business professional can exist without the car.......your confusing "wants" with "needs"

if said business professional cannot adapt when the time comes because he/she cannot fathom not having a car because of the above typical thinking he/she may end up an unemployed business professional

/\/\ pedex, maybe in some utopian world.

Modern business requirements simply doesn't permit busy executives to pedal eighty-miles by bicycle to take clients to lunch (on their bicycles, I guess) while everyone is either chattering in -5* Fahrenheit howling winter winds or sweating through their suits in 85* Fahrenheit with 90% humidity. Nevermind hauling the literature, product samples, laptop computers, contracts, and related items.

I know what your saying Blue Jays, but what about the rest of the population? The 16 year old kids, the service workers, the rest of us? I have a car and am frankly rather ashamed with myself. I don't need it, I want it, but I do recognize the difference and would never complain about the cost of gas. Transportation does not have to be a jeep liberty, and as gas prices go up soon it won't be.

/\/\ pedex, maybe in some utopian world.

Modern business requirements simply doesn't permit busy executives to pedal eighty-miles by bicycle to take clients to lunch (on their bicycles, I guess) while everyone is either chattering in -5* Fahrenheit howling winter winds or sweating through their suits in 85* Fahrenheit with 90% humidity. Nevermind hauling the literature, product samples, laptop computers, contracts, and related items.

your assuming that the business requirements will stay the same in an energy constrained world, they wont, your market will get much more local, everything will

as far as the riding in weather/hauling issues go, you got the wrong guy to argue that with, I ride for a living, your talking about what I do 5 days a week for a living

I know its super hard to imagine our world going backwards after a long long time of growth, but it can happen, and nothing will be much the same, you cant just say only this or that will change, all of it will change. Probably in ugly phases too, I wouldnt think it will be smooth or orderly. Like I said, professional businessman better roll with the punches and change, cause guys like me most certainly will and I dont take prisoners.

We can only predict the future in broad terms. Economic analysis fails because the world financial system is not really driven by fundamentals any more. What we have instead is some kind of six billion player poker game where the world's physical wealth gets divided up according to the number of chips every player wins in the game. You can play it straight if you want, but be aware that there is bluffing, dealing from the bottom of the deck, collusion between players, and marked cards.

The only thing you can predict with any confidence is that if energy resources start becoming more expensive, there will be some people who have to get by with less. It's good to have a backup plan if you think you might be one of them.

We can only predict the future in broad terms. Economic analysis fails because the world financial system is not really driven by fundamentals any more. What we have instead is some kind of six billion player poker game where the world's physical wealth gets divided up according to the number of chips every player wins in the game. You can play it straight if you want, but be aware that there is bluffing, dealing from the bottom of the deck, collusion between players, and marked cards.

The only thing you can predict with any confidence is that if energy resources start becoming more expensive, there will be some people who have to get by with less. It's good to have a backup plan if you think you might be one of them.

I like the six billion-player poker game analogy; it makes a potentially grim situation seem almost fun, or at least entertaining.

The reason people need cars is because they might need to travel forty miles away to have lunch with important clients, review a slideshow presentation, verify network configurations, and sign contracts before returning home. All this might need to be done while it is -5* Fahrenheit outside with 25 m.p.h. winds. This same business professional might also have a 9% bodyfat percentage, ride 250 miles per week, and have a resting heartrate of 50 beats per minute. In fact, I'm very confident that can be the case.

When I had my computer business, I hated meetings, meetings are a horrible waste of time, and you often can't bill much for a meeting. Lunch with a client, now there is a way to waste an afternoon that you can't bill for. For the presentation, just video tape it, burn it to a DVD and send it, along with other materials you want to send them. 95% of business communication can be done by email, fax or phone. Conference calls are a great way to have a whole whack of people communicate, without a face to face meeting. Contracts, ever hear of a courier service? You print up the contract and sign it, courier it to the other party, they sign both copies, and courier one back to you along with the cheque (check) for the initial payment, you can arrange it so that you pay the shipping both ways.

Wogsterca, negotiations involving lots of commas and zeros require onsite presence. You should know that.

Front page news everywhere around here is that gas is up to $3.25 already. I am hoping to have more company on the ride in today *crosses fingers*

Maybe this will encourage more participation on Bike to Work Week?:D

I doubt higher gas prices = more cyclists. If anything, there'll be more motorcycles & scooters around.

I doubt higher gas prices = more cyclists. If anything, there'll be more motorcycles & scooters around.
While I can agree with you because I know how lazy Americans are in general, my own observances has lead me to consider that higher gas prices *could* increase the amount of bicycle commuters on the road.
I have been happy at being the only full time commuter that I see on the roads, or so I lead myself to belive since I never see anyone else, of course that could just be a matter of timing. Never-the-less, last year when the gas prices were high and the local news ran 3 to 5 stories every night about gas prices and wot-not, I began to see more commuters. Once the gas prices dropped back down to under $3.00 all of those guys were gone.
Now maybe they changed their commute time, but it is too coincidental that their "appearance" would happen once the gas prices got high and their "vanishing" would happen at the same time gas prices drop.

At the gas station I pass on my way to work its $3.43. The highest I've ever seen.

It's funny because I've checked alot of places today while riding the bike to work and back and riding the bus to go grocery shopping. I think about 95% of them are right at $2.99/gal for regular but none are at or over the magic $3.00.

They all must be waiting for the other to blink, perhaps?

I doubt higher gas prices = more cyclists. If anything, there'll be more motorcycles & scooters around.

This is a sad reality I have seen evidence of around here, although it is better than nothing. My LBS owner is selling folder bikes with a small gas motor that he claims to get 100mpg out of. Rather that than a 10 MPG Cadillac Escalade.

This is a sad reality I have seen evidence of around here, although it is better than nothing. My LBS owner is selling folder bikes with a small gas motor that he claims to get 100mpg out of. Rather that than a 10 MPG Cadillac Escalade.
Besides thinking wishfully, do you really think anyone who uses a 10 MPG Cadillac Escalade is going to trade it in for a motor scooter or folder bike with a small gas motor to make the same trips?

Besides thinking wishfully, do you really think anyone who uses a 10 MPG Cadillac Escalade is going to trade it in for a motor scooter or folder bike with a small gas motor to make the same trips?

I personally think that high gas prices sometimes prompt owners of 10mpg vehicles to go for 25mpg vehicles instead, and owners of 25mpg vehicles to go for bicycles. Do you think that's true, ILTB?

I heard on NPR this morning, and confirmed with a British co-worker, that gas prices in England are about 5 British pounds, or 10 US dollars a gallon. I thought it was also interesting how they claimed SUVs are nearly as popular there as in America, though the majority of them over there run on diesel and get in the neighborhood of 25 mpg compared to our 10-15 city.

I personally think that high gas prices sometimes prompt owners of 10mpg vehicles to go for 25mpg vehicles instead, and owners of 25mpg vehicles to go for bicycles. Do you think that's true, ILTB?

I can't speak for ILTB, but I think some will convert to higher mpg vehicles, but the majority will not. The majority in the US seem to be chasing a dream of living however they want to regardless of its impact on others. For some reason, which I have yet to understand, the idea of a large cushy vehicle that gets poor gas mileage as a status symbol meaning you've made it in the world has taken hold. The bigger the automobile, the more obnoxious the exterior, and the louder the stereo, the more people seem to want it. I don't think gas prices rising will change the attitudes of many out there.

I personally think that high gas prices sometimes prompt owners of 10mpg vehicles to go for 25mpg vehicles instead, and owners of 25mpg vehicles to go for bicycles. Do you think that's true, ILTB?
Yes to getting better mileage cars.

No to any significant number of people replacing their automobile with a bicycle; unless the automobile is at present only being used for short trips and serves no other function. This is especially true if there is a need to travel in inclement/severe weather.

Despite what a few bicycling enthusiasts post about the joy of adversity, few others will choose a mode of transport that subjects them to inclement/severe weather/excessive sweating if any other alternative exists.

I think the next decade will be the decade of the Hybrid. 40+ mpg sitting in traffic. A step forward. If the middle east nipple gets cut and the monarchies replaced with militants we will never see gas below $6 a gallon again (optomistic view, probably $8). Venezuela is facist, Nigeria has problems, we are running out of countries to supply are insatiable appetite for energy. It wasn't long ago we were self sufficient, plenty for everyone and traffic was lite. 1950's +

Besides thinking wishfully, do you really think anyone who uses a 10 MPG Cadillac Escalade is going to trade it in for a motor scooter or folder bike with a small gas motor to make the same trips?


Cadillac owners tend to be conservative, wealthy and very invested in the status quo. They'll keep their gas guzzlers as long as they can, of course. Then they'll sell them to poor people.

For some reason, which I have yet to understand, the idea of a large cushy vehicle that gets poor gas mileage as a status symbol meaning you've made it in the world has taken hold. The bigger the automobile, the more obnoxious the exterior, and the louder the stereo, the more people seem to want it.
Check out Thorstein Veblen's "Theory of the Leisure Class". Here is a blurb from Wikipedia
"In The Theory of the Leisure Class, which is probably his best-known work, because of its satiric look at American society, the instincts of emulation and predation play a major role. People, rich and poor alike, attempt to impress others and seek to gain advantage through what Veblen coined "conspicuous consumption" and the ability to engage in “conspicuous leisure.” In this work Veblen argued that consumption is used as a way to gain and signal status. Through "conspicuous consumption" often came "conspicuous waste," which Veblen detested. Much of modern advertising is built upon a Veblenian notion of consumption."

at $10 a gallon, you can buy 20,000 gallons of gas with the $200,000 price differential between similar dwellings in the city vs 30 miles out in the burbs. At 19 mpg thats 380,000 miles. At 60 miles a day, that's 6,333 days worth of commuting, or 17 years. As prices increase, dwelling demand in the city increases, increasing that differential. Why again do you think $10 a gallon gas will change driving habits?

at $10 a gallon, you can buy 20,000 gallons of gas with the $200,000 price differential between similar dwellings in the city vs 30 miles out in the burbs. At 19 mpg thats 380,000 miles. At 60 miles a day, that's 6,333 days worth of commuting, or 17 years. As prices increase, dwelling demand in the city increases, increasing that differential. Why again do you think $10 a gallon gas will change driving habits?


yup people keep thinking even small changes like to $4 or $5 are drastic and will bring big changes, it wont, not here in the US

energy is an INELASTIC commodity, you will pay as much as needed till you cant pay anymore, and I'd guess lots of people will at some point be paying as much in fuel each month as they do in mortgage payments, we have a long long way to go to get there

when people actually start making changes on their own and looking to produce their own energy, then just maybe that might be a turning point

Not to mention there are other vehicles available that can get roughly four times that mileage...
That being said, you can go out even farther and drop another $200k off the price of a home.

Gasoline went up 20 cents a gallon overnight here to $3.19.

OMG on the way home from work today I saw two pretty young ladies on FIXED-GEAR BIKES!:love:

at $10 a gallon, you can buy 20,000 gallons of gas with the $200,000 price differential between similar dwellings in the city vs 30 miles out in the burbs. At 19 mpg thats 380,000 miles. At 60 miles a day, that's 6,333 days worth of commuting, or 17 years. As prices increase, dwelling demand in the city increases, increasing that differential. Why again do you think $10 a gallon gas will change driving habits?

There are a LOT of families that could not afford $12000 (200,000/17) per year in gas.



While I'm at it, and not directed at dogboy, why is everyone so fixated on the "McMansion" crowd, as if they were the only people living in the suburbs. No, they won't be seriously effected by gas prices for decades. Of a bigger concern will be the large numbers of people who bought on the edge of town, or in a smaller adjacent town because that was literally the only home they could afford to purchase. (not getting sidetracked by issues such as rent vs buy or depressed neighborhoods) Many of these families are on the verge of being overextended as-is and are at serious risk. Remember, it's not just about the gas you burn to get to work. It's the cost of your food, clothes, heat (increasing natural gas usage for biodiesel production), etc.

With salaries that have been largely flat for a decade, I think there are more people at risk than some of you realize. The jerks in the H2s will survive... average Joe will have a harder time.

I'd guess lots of people will at some point be paying as much in fuel each month as they do in mortgage payments, we have a long long way to go to get there

:)
A lady at work commutes 120miles round-trip to her country dwelling. She replaced her old truck with a new Hummer H3:rolleyes: in which she says she averages 13mpg. That's 9.2gal per day, at $3/gal, it's close to $28/day, $138/wk, $553/mo

Just to get to work, not counting running errands etc.

Her mortgage is $800/mo:p
we're almost there for some people...

:)
A lady at work commutes 120miles round-trip to her country dwelling. She replaced her old truck with a new Hummer H3:rolleyes: in which she says she averages 13mpg. That's 9.2gal per day, at $3/gal, it's close to $28/day, $138/wk, $553/mo

Just to get to work, not counting running errands etc.

Her mortgage is $800/mo:p
we're almost there for some people...

NOW THAT'S DOWNSIZING, If only Gore and Edwards had that kind of comittment.
I would have gladly sold her my explorer for just what I owe on it. It gets over 20 hwy and 14-16 around town. Almost can't give the thing away so I park it and use it for carrying stuff or people occasionally.

:)
A lady at work commutes 120miles round-trip to her country dwelling. She replaced her old truck with a new Hummer H3:rolleyes: in which she says she averages 13mpg. That's 9.2gal per day, at $3/gal, it's close to $28/day, $138/wk, $553/mo

Just to get to work, not counting running errands etc.

Her mortgage is $800/mo:p
we're almost there for some people...

I wonder what she did to the thing...EPA estimates are 15/19, and I'd think over her 60 mile trip to work there's more go than stop. Min I'd expect her to get 15 mpg Hwy. Then its 8 gal per day or 24/120/480. Still...a valid point.

BTW, I wasn't referring to the Mcmansions. In areas like Chicago, it literally is an issue of being able to afford a house 30 miles out (probably more like 50 now) or not be able to afford one in the city. If you work downtown however there is the metra which many folks use, but still, my point is that in the US, people will only relenquish their drive to the c-store for a slurpee and a fillup kicking and screaming. If this transition is relatively slow...as in no more than $1 increase per gallon per year, I'd expect some change to more efficient vehicles, but little to no change in driving habits. If, however the spike is abrupt...$1 or so overnight, I think it would have more impact.