Road Bike Racing - Ullrich can beat Armstrong

Velonews.com (http://www.velonews.com/race/int/articles/4250.0.html)

What do you think?

Anything is possible, and he has shown good form this year. I think that he has purposefully understated his strength in order to surprise everybody with his comeback. However, IMNSHO, Lance would have to have a mechanical or a serious injury if Jan is to beat him this year.

I don't agree with Indurain's comments about Armstrong's Time Trialing abilities, and find myself wondering if Indurain is rooting for Ullrich just so his record remains, I know I would be if I were in his shoes.

I am a long time fan of Ullrich though so I hope I can and will beat Armstrong, but either way I will be happy as long as it's a clean tour and the racing is good.

I don't know...

To beat Armstrong in July you have to be better than him at the ONLY race that he really cares about and devotes himself to 100%. Also even if Ullrich is "poor-mouthing" himself a bit and can ride with LA mano a mano can his new Bianchi team cover him the way USPS covers LA? I don't see it. Only a very few teams can ride for their leader the way USPS can.

Like may I'm a LA fan but if somebody beats him I won't get depressed, that's the way it goes. If LA ties the 5 win record it should be a grueling ordeal for him not the boring 3 week thing we saw last year and if Ullrich makes LA suffer then the race will be better and the win more meaningful.

(At least IMHO as a spectator. I clearly remember when younger and engaged in competitive athletics I was happy to win period, when I could, and didn't really care if others thought it boring or exciting. Would imagine LA feels the same way)

Originally posted by Ba-Dg-Er


so I hope I can and will beat Armstrong, but either way I will be happy as long as it's a clean tour and the racing is good.

Wow man I did not even know you were in the Tour. :D
Good luck on beating Armstrong!:beer:

Originally posted by KevinG
Wow man I did not even know you were in the Tour. :D
Good luck on beating Armstrong!:beer:

HAHAHAHAHA That's what you get when you post right after a ride when you didn't sleep well the night before. But atleast I was aware enough to be rooting for myself.

Correction: I hope Ullrich can and will beat Armstrong! :p

I agree with Big Mig on this one, but keep in mind he said that Ullrich can beat Armstrong, not that he will beat him. I think Ullrich deffinatly has the ability to, but I don't think he will this year.

-Matt-

YOu're right- he said CAN, not will. I am pretty sure lance will win this year, barring injury or recurrence of cancer. I think Ullrich may not be quite in shape just yet, he's had a year off, injuries, etc. But the fact that he's done so well in his comeback is very encouraging. I think Mig is right, it could certainly happen.

I don’t think Jan is as much a threat as Joseba Boloki. If he has the form of last year, this could be a close race. Once is as dedicated to him as Postal is to Lance, perhaps just not quite as strong. But they did win the TTT last year I believe

Originally posted by Michael Marshal
I don’t think Jan is as much a threat as Joseba Boloki. If he has the form of last year, this could be a close race.

Joseba certainly thinks so:

"I believe the U.S. Postal Service team is weak in the mountains" ... Joseba Boloki (clicky clicky) (http://www.velonews.com/race/int/articles/4183.0.html)

Maybe Ullrich can beat LA. The question is: when?

Not this year.

Simoni, Heras, Hamilton, Leipheimer, Botero, Vinokourov (sp?) and Beloki are all TdF contenders and are on form to give LA some competition. Ullrich is still a year away.

Iban Mayo could contend if he had a stronger team.

I think Woodyupstate is right about Mayo. He rode right with LA during the Dauphene. Mayo couldn't ride away but the fact that LA couldn't drop him, and I do believe he wanted to is interesting. However USPS can/will make life tough for Mayo and I can't see his team doing that to LA.

If Botero could avoid one of his spectacular blow-ups where he habitually gives away a 1/2 hour e has shown that he can ride with and away from anyone. He needs to do it for 3 weeks. Having Telekom ride for him will help.

USPS will ride a climbing specialist like Simoni into the ground on the flats, take his legs away and negate what might be an advantage in the mountans. In the last couple of Tours people have begun to realize just how strong "The Blue Train" is and how well they ride for LA.

Who was Simoni beating in the TTs in the Giro? Not the World Champion, Botero; not the former World Champion, Ekimov; not the former World Champion Ullrich; and not World Champion podium boys Millar and Armstrong. Big difference. He couldn't even get close to way-in-the-past former World Champion Ivanov. There will be a big step up in quality in the TDF. Plus, what's Saeco going to do in the TTT? Simoni may end up 2-3min down on the leaders after that!

Read Steve Bauer's comments on the TDF at <www.Roadcycling.com >. He has some insightful remarks I haven't seen elsewhere about stage 8 and stages 12 and 13. Worth reading. Leads me to believe that Stage 13, a Pyrenean stage on the Franco/Espana border will be won by a non-TT specialist(rode easy stage 12) from Spain...Mayo? Mancebo? Laiseika?

I think Virenque will be targeting stage 8 for victory. He's coming into form quite nicely(2nd in French Nats), and that is "his" stage. He'll be very motivated for the 90th TDF and the centennary edition to get his name in the history books. Plus, Lefevre blasted him in the press the other day saying he better get some results or he's not assured of a job next year. Virenque will win then say to the press, "This is an answer to all those who doubted me". Ah, those French and Italians.

As Big Mig said, Ullrich needs to work on his climbing and LA has a few TT weaknesses. I think that weakness in the Mountains would be more of a losing point than weakness in a TT? Ullrich is too big to keep up with LA in the mountains in my HO

Brendon

If Telekom and Bianchi form an alliance (as Zabel indicated they
would) then I believe that Jan could give Lance a run for
his money. If this happens (the alliance) watch for CSC to
ally themselves with Postal.
So, who does Beloki think is weak in the mountains?
Heras? Rubiera? Beltran? Landis?
All he has to do is look at last year, the weakest rider
in the mountains is Hincappie, and he did pretty well
last year.

Marty

Originally posted by lotek
So, who does Beloki think is weak in the mountains?
Heras? Rubiera? Beltran? Landis?
All he has to do is look at last year, the weakest rider
in the mountains is Hincappie, and he did pretty well
last year.

Marty

Yup, I guess that since Pantani is safely locked away in his hospital bed, someone has to do the trash talking this year.

I'm always much more impressed with a man that lets his legs do the talking - like Lance and Big Mig. Let the games begin!!! :D

They always say that Ullrich doesnt train hard enough to win it. Anyone that finishes that race trains pretty hard. Yesterday they were talking that Team Bianchi isnt near the unit that USPS is. They think they will ride more independently. It is unclear how much help Ullrich will actually get from them. With Armstrong, he would be competitive without his team. Im interested to see how Heras rides in the mountains this year. He was great last year.

Originally posted by bac
Yup, I guess that since Pantani is safely locked away in his hospital bed, someone has to do the trash talking this year.


Pantani was released as of yesterday.

To defend Beloki a little bit. He has done something Armstrong never has and never will do......Stand on the podium for 2 major Tours in the same year.

I doubt he can beat LA in France this year but he's done enough walking to do a little talking.

I don't agree with Indurain's comments about Armstrong's Time Trialing abilities, and find myself wondering if Indurain is rooting for Ullrich just so his record remains, I know I would be if I were in his shoes.

Actually Big Mig and Lance are good friends, I doubt that he's "rooting" for Ulrich, although he may not want to see his record fall.

I doubt Ullrich has it this year, he may be strong enough to do the job, but I doubt he has the team behind him to get him through it all against Postal. LeMond did it a number of years ago though, so it's possible but unlikely. USPS is just a monster team.

We'll know in about 8 days when the mountains come up who's got the goods and who doesn't.

Andrew

In modern Tour history, the Prologue has been surprisingly telling. Who is in top form? How do the top contenders compare?

The Prologue has provided good, albeit imperfect, information about this in the past fifteen years, at least. When Indurain was king, he showed it from the start, with strong prologues. Lance has done the same thing during his reign.

Ullrich took five seconds out of Lance today. Though of course the obvious qualifications need to be made about the fact that anything can happen, and that the mountains are much more important, the fact remains that today's results are significant.

I don't think Ullrich has ever beaten Lance in a Tour time trial before today-- at least, in 2001, the last head-to-head matchup, Lance beat Jan in the time trials and the prologue. In 2000, too, as I recall.

So, today's performance has to mean something. Lance would have won if he could have, after all. He just couldn't go faster against the clock than Jan (and others). He lost time to Tyler Hamilton, too.

The prologue does tell us that Ullrich is in shape, and ready to race. I think we should consider Ullrich a genuine contender in the race. We shouldn't think that Lance will be able to dominate his competition in all phases of the race as he's done in past years, either, as shown by the fact that he couldn't get by Hamilton and Ullrich, as well as the prologue specialists and that other guy riding the prologue of his life.

Though each year since '99 we've wanted to say there's reason to think this Tour is going to be competitive, we have good reason from the prologue now that it will be, evidence we haven't had in years past.

That's an excellent point, but I remember last year Lance and the USPS guys not being 100% happy with leading the GC from the beginning and they had a little relief when they sandbagged (most people's theories anyways) the team TT. They didn't like having to run up front for that first week (or there abouts) to "defend" the jersey.

But like you said, history is always a good tell, but on the other hand nothing suprises me strategy wise from USPS, they have taken strategic moves to another level in the tours. Having his other teammates so close in the standing hints towards a strategic move, and let's face it, 5 seconds doesn't mean much so early other than making sure he's real close to the GC (as opposed to the one year where he and other GC riders fell some 30 minutes behind by mid tour before the mountains).

It could be an interesting tour though, and if Ullrich can climb with Lance for the whole tour, it could really come down to the wire which will make for a great show.

Andrew

I doubt lance is worried too much about Ullrich being ahead of him. I don't think Lance was trying to kill himself on the prologue anyways, but I was really surprised at how well Jan did! He's been doing well in time trials this year, but that was amazing. Go Jan! Let's not forget he was world champ. However, I don't doubt lance will pass him in the GC before too long.

Originally posted by wabbit
However, I don't doubt lance will pass him in the GC before too long.

Well lets hope not.

Goooooooooooo Ullrich!

Originally posted by Ba-Dg-Er
Goooooooooooo Ullrich!

Thats what i am talking about. I want to see a old fashion down to the wire finish! I hope its a drag race with no one knowing who will win till the last possible moment.

Originally posted by KevinG
Thats what i am talking about. I want to see a old fashion down to the wire finish! I hope its a drag race with no one knowing who will win till the last possible moment.

Agreed... I'm a fan of Lance and USPS but I'm also a fan of other teams and riders as well. And I certainly don't want to see a cakewalk finish in any case.